德银策略师警告， "美国总统特朗普迫使美联储主席鲍威尔离职"是一个重大且被市场低估的风险，可能引发美元和美国国债的大幅抛售。 本周，特朗普表示，如果美国政府官员指控鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上误导国会议员的说法属实，鲍威尔应该"立即辞职"。 然而，鲍威尔被迫离职的风险被市场严重低估。德银全球外汇策略主管George Saravelos在报告中指出， 市场对鲍威尔被免职的概率定价"非常低" ，博彩平 台Polymarket给出的概率不到20%，美元近期也保持相对稳定。 Saravelos预测， 若特朗普迫使鲍威尔离职，随后24小时内美元贸易加权指数可能下跌至少3%-4%，固定收益市场将面临30-40个基点的抛售。 美元和债券将 承担持续性风险溢价。 这类事件或将构成对美联储独立性的一大冲击。Saravelos表示： "偷师"尼克松 特朗普指责鲍威尔"过度装修" 投资者可能将此类事件 解读为对美联储独立性的直接冲击，使美联储面临极端的制度性压力。 鲍威尔（美联储）坐镇全球美元货币体系的顶峰，显而易见的是，后果将波及美国境外。 其他机构观点也趋于一致。荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好降温，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率升至 4.41%。美元指数涨 0.69%至 97.8，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 0.77%，英镑跌 1.16%，日 元跌 2.05%，瑞郎跌 0.33%，雷亚尔、兰特跌超 2%，韩元、新 西兰元、加元等收跌。金价涨 0.6%至 3355 美元/盎司，VIX 指 数降至 16.4，现货商品指数收涨，布油涨 2.4%至 72.4 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 市场聚焦美国对外关税进程，在 90 天缓冲期到来之际，特朗普 政府陆续对贸易伙伴发起关税函，在主要的贸易国家中，日本 和韩国面临 25%关税，加拿大面临 35%关税，欧盟和墨西哥面 临 30%关税，关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，在此之前仍有一定的谈判 空间，但是最终预计至少会有 10%的关税落地，全球市场面临 的关税问题虽迟但到，市场此前对关税问题有所免疫，风险偏 好处于高位，短期内关税的不确定性再度回升，尤其是美股已 然全部收复了 4 月 2 日关税的跌幅并上涨，当下逆风因素再起， ...

【环球网财经综合报道】美联储独立性的根基，正面临前所未有的公开挑战。 特朗普本周再次将矛头对准美联储主席鲍威尔。他公开表示，如果有关鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上"误导国会 议员"的指控属实，鲍威尔应"立即辞职"。 荷兰国际集团（ING）策略师的观点与德银形成呼应。尽管他们认为鲍威尔提前离职"不太可能"，但一致认为若 发生将造成严重后果：美国国债收益率曲线将急剧陡峭化。市场将不得不为更低利率预期、更快通胀前景以及最 关键的美联储独立性削弱重新定价。ING指出，这对于美元将构成"有毒组合"，而传统避险货币如欧元、日元和 瑞士法郎可能成为最大受益者。 此番言论进一步升级了特朗普对鲍威尔的长期批评。特朗普一直施压美联储大幅降息，并暗示可能在鲍威尔任期 于2028年结束前提名继任者。 Saravelos在报告中发出了更严峻的警告：美国经济当前处于"非常脆弱的外部融资地位"。这一结构性弱点意味 着，如果鲍威尔被迫离职这类重大冲击发生，由此引发的市场动荡存在急剧放大风险，可能导致"远超我们预测范 围的、更大且更具破坏性的价格波动"。 市场低估的风险与潜在冲击的严重性之间，正形成危险的断层线。当美联储独立性的基石遭遇公开动摇 ...

德银策略师警告，美国总统特朗普迫使美联储主席鲍威尔离职是一个重大且被市场低估的风险，可能引 发美元和美国国债的大幅抛售。 其他机构观点也趋于一致。荷兰国际集团策略师在另一份报告中表示，尽管鲍威尔提前离职"不太可 能"，但这将导致美国国债收益率曲线陡峭化，因投资者将对更低利率、更快通胀和美联储独立性削弱 进行定价。 他们认为这将为美元创造"有毒组合"，欧元、日元和瑞士法郎将最为受益。 Saravelos警告，美国经济目前处于"非常脆弱的外部融资地位"，这增加了出现"远超我们概述范围的更 大更具破坏性价格波动"的风险。 "偷师"尼克松 特朗普职责鲍威尔"过度装修" 围绕美联储总部翻修的争议可能成为特朗普因利率分歧罢免鲍威尔的借口。白宫预算主管Russell Vought指控鲍威尔在25亿美元装修项目上向国会作伪证或违反建筑许可规定。 本周，特朗普表示，如果美国政府官员指控鲍威尔在美联储总部装修问题上误导国会议员的说法属实， 鲍威尔应该"立即辞职"。这一表态加剧了特朗普对美联储主席的批评，后者一直要求激进降息并暗示可 能在鲍威尔任期结束前提名继任者。 然而，鲍威尔被迫离职的风险被市场严重低估。德银全球外汇策略主管G ...

【导读】 特朗普找茬鲍威尔：为了降息连装修费都要查！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 美联储遇到危机了。 白宫顾问正在加大对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的施压力度，指称他要么在国会就美联储总部翻修一事撒谎，要么严重管理不善，从而可能 为罢免他开辟新的法律途径。 这些指控为对鲍威尔的攻击开辟了新的战线，成为推动其降息更广泛行动的一部分。 与此同时，特朗普还向必须批准首都重大建设项目的联邦委员会中增派了三名白宫顾问，包括副幕僚长詹姆斯·布莱尔。 沃特在周五表示，他的办公室以及新任命进入国家首都规划委员会的特朗普顾问们将对鲍威尔近期的声明及"令人震惊"的超支"提出非常非 常尖锐的问题"。 白宫借美联储翻修项目之机，寻求罢免鲍威尔 特朗普上周五告诉记者，他并不打算罢免鲍威尔（他在第一任期内任命鲍威尔为美联储主席），但称其"工作干得很糟"，并补充道："他让 我们的国家损失惨重。" 白宫在周四通过特朗普预算主任拉塞尔·沃特的一封信，正式发起了最新的挑战。信中暗示鲍威尔要么在国会就耗资25亿美元、位于华盛顿 国家广场边三栋办公楼的翻修工程发表了虚假陈述，要么没有遵守首都地区建筑的许可规定。 沃特在X平台上发布随信附带的帖子中写道："自2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rumors surrounding Powell's potential resignation stem from internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and management issues related to the renovation of the Fed's headquarters [1][2]. Group 1: Allegations and Responses - Russell Vought, the budget chief under the Trump administration, accused Powell of either lying to Congress or mismanaging the renovation project [1]. - President Trump stated he does not plan to replace Powell but criticized his performance, claiming it has cost the country significantly [1]. - The Federal Reserve responded to the allegations, explaining that the increased renovation costs were due to unforeseen construction conditions, such as unexpected asbestos and toxic contamination [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Analyst Adam Button noted the oddity of the reports about Powell's resignation, indicating that the market seemed unaffected by the rumors [4]. - The Fed's spokesperson dismissed the resignation reports, emphasizing Powell's firm stance on his position [6]. - A scholar from the University of Pennsylvania warned that the current developments could create legal grounds for Powell's removal, which could lead to significant instability in the global economy [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed is not expected to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, although Powell hinted at potential rate cuts later this year if inflation improves or the labor market weakens [8]. - White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair expressed that if Powell is found to have lied to Congress, it would raise serious concerns among the Fed Board, the American public, and the Senate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the controversy surrounding the Federal Reserve's $2.5 billion office renovation, which has drawn criticism from the White House and raised questions about the management of the Federal Reserve under Chairman Jerome Powell [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Implications - The $2.5 billion renovation cost is equivalent to approximately 179 billion RMB, highlighting the significant financial burden on taxpayers [1]. - The White House's scrutiny of the renovation expenses is perceived as a potential pretext for questioning Powell's leadership and management of the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The ongoing tension between former President Trump and Powell is emphasized, with Trump previously criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates aggressively enough [4][8]. - The investigation into the renovation costs is seen as a strategic move by the White House to undermine Powell's position, potentially leading to his dismissal [6][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts on Wall Street express concern that Powell's potential removal could lead to market instability, indicating the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence in maintaining financial stability [6][12]. - The article notes that if Powell were to be dismissed over the renovation costs, it could set a precedent that undermines the Federal Reserve's autonomy and the dollar's dominance [12].

白宫顾问正在加紧对美联储主席鲍威尔展开施压行动，指控他在国会就美联储总部装修项目撒谎或严重 管理不当，为罢免鲍威尔开辟新的法律途径。这一策略呼应了尼克松政府1972年通过散布假消息损害美 联储信誉的做法。 据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，特朗普周五表示暂无罢免鲍威尔的计划，但称其工作"糟糕透顶"，"让国 家损失大量资金"。白宫预算主管沃特（Russell Vought）周四致信鲍威尔，暗示其在25亿美元装修项目 上向国会作伪证或违反建筑许可规定。 7月11日，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos发文表示，围绕美联储总部翻修的 争议，可能会成为特朗普试图因利率分歧而罢免鲍威尔的借口。 美联储官员表示，鲍威尔在国会证词中诚实陈述了建筑计划。目前尚不清楚设计变更是否足以要求向规 划委员会重新提交方案。该官员称，美联储外部建筑管理方未建议需要重新提交任何计划变更。 文章表示，白宫顾问团指控鲍威尔在美联储总部25亿美元装修项目上的管理存在严重问题。据华尔街见 闻文章提及，沃特在致鲍威尔的信中提出一系列问题，包括项目超支等，旨在发现鲍威尔证词中的矛盾 或美联储向规划部门提交文件的缺陷。 另外，沃特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current Federal Reserve is suggested to lack independence according to the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett [1] Group 1 - The statement from Hassett indicates a potential shift in the perception of the Federal Reserve's autonomy in its decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent comments target Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, claiming current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high" and calling for immediate rate cuts [1] - Trump estimates that every 1 percentage point increase in interest rates adds $360 billion to the refinancing costs for the U.S., based on a rough estimate of the national debt [1] - Market response to Trump's comments has been muted, with traders expecting a 93.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's pressure [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the market is often more intelligent than politicians, as market participants will ultimately vote with their money rather than being swayed by political rhetoric [5] - It highlights the importance of how news is interpreted in the financial market, noting that institutional investors and retail investors often have different interpretations of the same news due to their differing motivations [7] - The article provides examples of how market dynamics can lead to different outcomes based on institutional participation, such as the contrasting reactions of stock prices to gold price surges in different years [8] Group 3 - The article suggests that the true driving force behind market movements is capital flow rather than surface-level news, urging investors to look beyond appearances to understand the underlying dynamics [9] - It stresses the importance of relying on quantitative data for investment decisions, as the Federal Reserve's decisions are based on employment and inflation data rather than political pressure [10] - The article advises ordinary investors to focus on real market data rather than getting caught up in political debates, emphasizing the need for a data-driven approach to investing [12] Group 4 - Key recommendations for ordinary investors include not being influenced by political disputes, focusing on actual economic data, utilizing quantitative tools for market analysis, and developing personal investment logic rather than following trends [14]