华尔街投资者和策略师表示，美国总统特朗普选择凯文·沃什领导美联储是一个相对鹰派的选择，他可 能会抵制资产负债表扩张，这将支撑美元并使美国国债收益率曲线更陡峭。 若获参议院确认，沃什（尽管其过往常因通胀担忧而支持加息）将面临一位在第二任期内屡屡指责美联 储官员未能按其意愿激进放松政策的总统。美元走强，美国国债收益率曲线陡峭化。 在华尔街及全球投资者中，特朗普为降低借贷成本施加压力的举动引发了对央行独立性的担忧。美联储 制定的基准利率影响着全球市场的借贷成本。 专题：特朗普正式提名沃什出任美联储主席 "市场反应表明，在美联储主席候选人中，我们即将迎来立场更鹰派的一位，"Onepoint BFG首席投资官 Peter Boockvar表示。 特朗普在社交媒体发布消息后，彭博美元指数周五纽约早盘走高。短期美国国债收益率下跌，长期国债 收益率则上升。美国股指期货与贵金属价格同步走低。 曾于2006至2011年担任美联储理事的沃什将接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔的职位。华尔街市场观察人士同时指 出，新任美联储主席需在联邦公开市场委员会12名投票委员中就利率政策达成共识。鲍威尔将于5月15 日卸任主席职务，但其美联储理事任期将持续至2 ...

Director Day Rick D. purchased 1,500 shares, indicating insider confidence in NASDAQ:BFST.CEO Jude Melville highlighted significant operational improvements and balance sheet expansion in the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call.BFST reported a net income of $21 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a full-year net income of $82.5 million.Business First Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:BFST), the parent company of b1BANK, is a prominent player in the banking sector, focusing on growth and operational enhancemen ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the gold price showed an upward trend, with New York gold rising from $4,200 at the beginning of the week to $4,300 at the weekend. The core driving factor was the Fed's December FOMC meeting, which decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart the expansion of the balance - sheet, depressing the dollar and boosting gold. The Fed's stance was dovish, leading to a rise in risk appetite and liquidity, and a general increase in assets. However, on Friday night, the macro - environment suddenly changed, and overseas stocks and commodities fell, with the gold price also showing a trend of rising first and then falling, and short - term liquidity declined significantly [6][21]. - In the short term, the market first rose and then fell after the FOMC meeting, fully digesting the impact. The long - short game intensified, and the market's risk - aversion demand increased rapidly, resulting in an upward trend in the gold price. New York gold broke through $4,300, and its upward momentum was strong. Attention could be paid to the support at the $4,300 mark [6][21]. - In the medium - to - long term, the gold price has been in a high - level oscillation since Sino - US relations eased at the end of October. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and global geopolitical changes, as well as the technical pressure at the $4,400 mark [6][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1.1 Weekly Trend The report presents a chart of the dollar index linkage, but no specific content about the weekly trend is described other than the chart [9]. 3.2 1.2 Indicator Percentage Changes | Indicator | December 12 | December 5 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,329.80 | $4,227.70 | 2.42% | | COMEX Silver | $62.09 | $58.80 | 5.59% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 970.66 | 961.04 | 1.00% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 14,892.00 | 13,687.00 | 8.80% | | Dollar Index | 98.40 | 98.98 | - 0.59% | | USD/CNH | 7.05 | 7.07 | - 0.23% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.93 | 1.88 | 0.05 | | S&P 500 | 6,827.41 | 6,870.40 | - 0.63% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $57.53 | $60.14 | - 4.34% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 69.74 | 71.90 | - 3.00% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 65.18 | 70.22 | - 7.17% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,053.12 | 1,050.25 | 2.87 | | iShare Gold ETF | 488.42 | 485.73 | 2.69 | [10] 3.3 2. Dollar Weakens, Gold Price Strengthens The Fed's December FOMC meeting decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and restart the expansion of the balance - sheet. The Fed's stance was dovish, the dollar index was weak, and short - term market risk appetite and liquidity increased, leading to a general rise in assets. After the FOMC meeting, market risk appetite recovered, but on Friday night, the market atmosphere changed suddenly, and risk appetite declined again [12][14]. 3.4 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since November, as the gold price has oscillated upwards, the holdings of international ETFs have also recovered, but the overall increase in holdings has been slow [16]. - After the Fed's FOMC meeting last week, liquidity and risk appetite recovered significantly. New York silver continued to reach new highs, rising to $65 at one point. Gold performed relatively weakly, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline, approaching the 65 mark [19]. 3.5 4. Conclusion The conclusion is the same as the core view, emphasizing that the gold price showed an upward trend last week due to the Fed's FOMC meeting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support at the $4,300 mark, and in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, global geopolitical changes, and the technical pressure at the $4,400 mark [6][21].

以下文章来源于金十财经 ，作者金十小金 金十财经 . 每日8点，为您呈上金融投资行业的国际动态、财经数据和市场观察。 委员会认为， 准备金余额已下降至充足水平，并将按需启动购买短期美国国债，以在持续基础上维持充足的准备金供应。 投票支持此次货币政策行动的有：主席鲍威尔、副主席威廉姆斯、巴尔、鲍曼、柯林斯、库克、杰斐逊、穆萨莱姆以及沃勒。 投票反对的有米 兰，其倾向于在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间下调1/2个百分点；以及古尔斯比和施密德，他们倾向于本次会议维持联邦基金利率目标 区间不变。 来源 | 金十财经 12月11日，美联储以9-3的投票比例将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，为连续第三次会议降息。政策声明删除了对失业率"较 低"的描述。最新点阵图维持2026年降息25个基点的预测。 另外，美联储将于12月12日开始的30天内购买400亿美元国库券，以维持充足的准备金供应。 利率决议全文 可用的数据表明，经济活动正以温和的步伐扩张。今年以来就业增长放缓，失业率截至9月有所上升。更近期的指标与上述情况一致。 通胀较 年初有所上升，仍处于偏高水平。 委员会的长期目标是实现最大就业和2%的通胀率 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is stabilizing after experiencing its largest increase in three weeks, with investors preparing for the Federal Reserve's monthly $40 billion Treasury bill purchase program [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains steady at 4.14%, while the two-year bond yield stabilized after a significant drop, following the Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [1] - Jefferies Group's Chief Economist and Strategist Mohit Kumar emphasized the importance of balance sheet expansion, noting that the Fed's purchasing operations will have a stimulative effect as the Treasury shifts its issuance towards Treasury bills and short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release initial jobless claims data, with economists expecting an increase from 191,000 to 220,000 [4] - The U.S. Treasury plans to complete its weekly debt issuance by selling $22 billion in 30-year bonds, following a previous auction that saw widening tail spreads, which pushed yields higher [4] - Other markets, including Eurozone and UK bonds, are generally stable, while Japanese bonds rose due to strong demand in a 20-year bond auction, attracting investors with higher yields [4]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 approaching 6900 points, closing at 6886.68 points, up 0.67% [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, aligning with market expectations, leading to a 1.05% increase in the Dow Jones, which closed at 48057.75 points [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5 basis points to 3.564%, while the 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.4 basis points to 4.163% [4] Popular Stocks Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results: Amazon rose by 1.7%, Tesla by 1.4%, Google by 1.0%, Oracle by 0.7%, and Apple by 0.6%. However, Nvidia fell by 0.6% and Meta by 1.0% [2] - In the banking sector, JPMorgan rose by 3.2%, Wells Fargo by 2.0%, and Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America all increased by over 1% [3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was supported by a 9-3 vote, with future actions dependent on employment and inflation signals [4] - The Fed's economic forecast for GDP growth in 2026 was raised from 1.8% to 2.3%, while the unemployment rate estimate for next year remained at 4.4% [4] - Market sentiment improved as traders anticipated a 78% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January [4] Company-Specific Developments - General Electric's energy division surged nearly 16% after announcing a doubling of its quarterly dividend and expanding its stock buyback program, with 2025 revenue expectations nearing the upper limit of $36 to $37 billion [4] - Netflix saw a decline of 4.1%, while Warner Bros. Discovery rose by 4.5% amid acquisition competition with Paramount [5] Commodity Performance - International oil prices rebounded, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.36% to $58.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.44% to $62.21 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fluctuated, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 0.24% to $4196.40 per ounce, but later trading around $4240 following the Fed's decision [7] - Silver reached a historic high, with COMEX silver futures surpassing $62, gaining over 2% in the day [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates for the third time this year, with expectations for further easing in the coming year. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 497.46 points, an increase of 1.05%, closing at 48,057.75 points; the Nasdaq gained 77.67 points, up 0.33%, closing at 23,654.16 points; the S&P 500 increased by 46.22 points, a rise of 0.68%, closing at 6,886.73 points [1] - The Federal Reserve approved a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% [1] - The Fed's announcement of purchasing Treasury securities starting December 12, with a plan to buy $40 billion over the next 30 days, contributed to the positive market sentiment [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Insights - The Fed's statement indicated a shift in focus towards supporting the economy rather than controlling inflation, as it removed previous language describing the labor market as "still low" [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the removal of the total limit on overnight repurchase operations is a key tool to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range during market pressures [2] - The Fed's dot plot showed no change in the median forecast for interest rates in 2026, indicating a stable outlook [1][3] Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants anticipate that the Fed may lower rates more than once next year, with a 68% probability of two or more rate cuts according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Analysts suggest that while the Fed's forecast indicates only one rate cut next year, the expansion of the balance sheet is a positive signal for the market [3] - The S&P 500 index is projected to potentially break the 7,000-point barrier in the coming weeks, driven by the favorable market conditions created by the Fed's actions [5]

来源：中文投资网 美东时间12月10日下午两点（北京时间12月11日凌晨3点）美联储即将公布12月利率决议。 全球市场都在屏息以待，然而市场关注的焦点却远不止"是否降息"这么简单。 表面看，第三次降息几乎是板上钉钉。但市场真正紧张的，是利率之外的两个变量： 美联储是否暗示重新扩大资产负债表？ Kevin Hassett——特朗普意向中的新任美联储主席——对货币政策路径意味着什么？ 这三者共同构成了本周最关键的宏观拐点，决定着美股这轮年底的圣诞行情能否继续，也决定着全年涨幅已接近17%的标普 500指数能否继续突破历史新高。 支撑降息预期的经济信号包括： 通胀温和：9月份的PCE报告显示，消费者在关键领域的支出放缓，服务业通胀保持温和。 劳动力市场软化：即将公布的10月JOLTS职位空缺数据，以及上周喜忧参半的劳动力数据，可能预示着劳动力需求正在温和 软化。 内部共识：白宫国家经济委员会主任、被视为"美联储影子主席"的凯文·哈塞特也公开表示存在降息25个基点的共识。 彭博经济研究预计，尽管本次会议缺乏部分关键数据，美联储仍将遵循9月点阵图的路径，在两次降息的基础上再次下调利 率25个基点。 02比降息更重要的" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but a more significant change may come from a new asset purchase plan aimed at addressing liquidity issues in the financial system [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Market Reactions - Since March 2023, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times, reaching the highest levels in over two decades [4]. - The market has almost fully priced in the expected rate cut at the upcoming meeting on December 10, with discussions about potential further cuts in 2024 [4][5]. - Market focus on the interest rate cut may overshadow critical changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [4][7]. Group 2: Asset Purchase Plan - A report predicts that the Federal Reserve may announce a monthly purchase plan of $45 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, starting in January 2026 [2][4]. - This purchase plan is not aimed at stimulating the economy but rather at providing emergency support to the financial system due to liquidity shortages [2][5]. - The report highlights a natural growth demand of at least $20 billion per month for the Fed's balance sheet to maintain liquidity [7]. Group 3: Liquidity Concerns - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening, leading to significant liquidity withdrawal from the financial system [5][22]. - Recent volatility in the repurchase market indicates that banks are facing a shortage of cash reserves, which could lead to a liquidity crisis if not addressed [10][23]. - The Fed's actions are seen as necessary to prevent a repeat of the liquidity issues experienced in September 2019 [10][26]. Group 4: Market Implications - The anticipated asset purchases are expected to lower short-term interest rates and stabilize the money market rate structure [27][29]. - An increase in liquidity may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, aligning with the Treasury's stance against a too-strong dollar [29]. - The focus on short-term Treasury securities in the purchase plan may lead to a steepening of the yield curve, benefiting banks' net interest margins [29].

[ 美联储资产负债表在2022年触及近9万亿美元的峰值，随后伴随量化紧缩（QT）政策的实施，规模已 缩减了约2.4万亿美元。 ] 美联储资产负债表在2022年触及近9万亿美元的峰值，随后伴随量化紧缩（QT）政策的实施，规模已缩 减了约2.4万亿美元，这一过程从金融体系中抽走了流动性。最清晰的信号来自回购市场。近期，回购 市场的重要隔夜利率，如有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）和三方一般抵押品回购利率（TGCR），频繁 且剧烈地突破美联储政策利率走廊的上限，许多市场人士预计这种流动性危机年底还会时不时出现。这 表明银行体系内的准备金水平正从曾经的"充裕"滑向"充足"，并有进一步走向"稀缺"的风险。鉴于回购 市场的系统重要性，这种状况被认为是美联储难以长期容忍的，因为它可能削弱货币政策的传导效率。 在此背景下，美联储官员的近期表态也暗示了行动的紧迫性。纽约联储主席John Williams曾表示"预计 不久后我们将达到充裕的准备金水平"，而达拉斯联储主席Lorie Logan也指出"预计不久后恢复资产负债 表增长是合适的"。卡巴纳解读认为，"不久后"（will not be long）即指代12月的FOMC会议。 澳 ...