今天我们来了解下素有"商品大王"之称的投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯（Jim Rogers），他出现在杰克·施瓦格（Jack Schwager）的经典著作《市场奇才》 （Market Wizards）的原版中。罗杰斯的章节标题是《买入价值，卖出癫狂》（Buying Value and Selling Hysteria）。 施瓦格笔下的吉姆·罗杰斯 据施瓦格介绍： 吉姆·罗杰斯在1968年以600美元的启动资金开始交易。1973年，他与乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）共同创立了量子基金（Quantum Fund）。1980年，罗杰 斯选择退休。 实际上，他成为了一名独立交易者，并在哥伦比亚大学开设课程。 罗杰斯起初并不愿接受施瓦格的采访，因为他并不认为自己是"专业交易员"。 "我认为自己只是一个等待机会出现的人。我等待那种像'桶里打鱼'一样的情形。" "我通常会持有头寸很多年。而且，我可能是世界上最差劲的交易者之一——我从来不会在正确的时间入场。" 早年经历 更多有关罗杰斯的早年生平及策略，可点击阅读：《"商品大王"吉姆·罗杰斯：量子基金联合创始人的秘密》 "我把所有的钱都省下来，又重新投入市场。我不在乎有没有电 ...

2024年四季度以来，A股市场走出了一轮结构性回暖行情，市场情绪逐步修复，投资机会在多条主线中 交替演绎。根据同花顺最新统计，截至9月24日的过去一年间，沪深300指数累计上涨36.22%，而同期 主动偏股型基金指数(932055)涨幅高达53.71%，显著跑赢大盘。这一数据不仅反映出主动管理型基金整 体业绩的强劲反弹，也凸显出基金经理在震荡市中的选股能力与策略执行力。 在对过去一年全市场主动权益类基金(包括股票型与混合型基金，剔除偏债混合、股债平衡、指数及指 数增强产品)的全面梳理中，我们发现：在全市场超4300只产品中，仅有58只基金实现了超过150%的收 益率，堪称"头部中的头部"。而其中，基金经理赵强所管理的三只产品悉数入选，成为本轮行情中极少 数能够实现"全系领先"的投资代表，展现出卓越的策略一致性与业绩爆发力。 实力验证：老将执舵，以持续业绩见证价值 赵强先生，一位拥有22年从业经验的资深战将，自2003年踏入基金行业，先后在华安基金、国金基金、 英大基金、中欧基金等机构担任投研要职，积累了完整的牛熊周期经验与多策略管理能力。他自2014年 起管理公募基金，2015年兼任专户投资，兼具公募的体系化 ...

Core Insights - The success or failure of investments primarily hinges on the accurate judgment of profitability, which is rooted in the depth of understanding [1] - Engaging with historical perspectives and diverse knowledge through reading is essential for enhancing cognitive abilities and identifying investment value [1] Group 1: Recommended Readings - "The Possible Futures of the Next 10,000 Days" by Kevin Kelly emphasizes that future changes are not just about technological innovations but also involve transformations in social structures, interpersonal relationships, and personal growth [4] - The film "The Big Short" illustrates how independent judgment against prevailing market consensus can lead to significant financial gains, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis [6] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Successful investment decisions that yield excess returns often stem from independent judgments that contradict market consensus [7] - Non-consensus views must be based on solid research and factual foundations; mere contrarianism does not guarantee profitability [7] - The psychological pressure associated with non-consensus investments can be immense, as evidenced by the experiences of characters in "The Big Short" who faced significant losses before their insights were validated [7]

Core Insights - The essence of successful investing lies in accurately assessing profitability, which is fundamentally tied to the depth of understanding [1] - Engaging with literature allows investors to expand their cognitive horizons and identify enduring truths amidst change [1] Group 1: Recommended Literature - "The Possible Futures of the Next 10,000 Days" by Kevin Kelly is recommended for its insights into future societal structures, interpersonal relationships, and personal growth, beyond just technological advancements [2] - The book encourages readers to actively shape the future rather than passively accept changes, providing a comprehensive view of potential future scenarios [2] Group 2: Film Recommendation - The film "The Big Short" illustrates how a few individuals foresaw the 2008 financial crisis and profited from it by shorting the housing market, highlighting the concept of non-consensus investing [3] - The film's narrative centers on the subprime mortgage crisis, showcasing how flawed financial products were misrated and sold, leading to a market collapse [3] - Key investment lessons from the film include the importance of independent judgment that contrasts with market consensus, the necessity of thorough research to support non-consensus views, and the psychological challenges faced before being proven right [3]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Although not everyone agrees with Warren Buffett’s investment philosophies, his success cannot be denied. Buffett has built a net worth of about $155 billion through smart investing over the years via his company Berkshire Hathaway. Learn More: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Bought Over $73 Million in Shares of This Tech Company — Here’s Why Consider This: These Cars May Seem Expensive, but They Rarely Need Repairs Chris Ballard, managing partner at Check Capital Management, which manages approximate ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents opportunities for contrarian investors, particularly in non-tech stocks that have seen significant sell-offs despite overall market highs [1][11]. Group 1: Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM) - Sprouts Farmers Market has experienced a decline of approximately 35% since June, with its stock hitting a relative strength index (RSI) below 18, marking a multi-year low [3][4]. - Despite the stock's decline, Sprouts has reported strong fundamentals, with recent quarterly revenue and EPS exceeding consensus expectations, and comparable store sales showing significant growth [4]. - The company has initiated a $1 billion share repurchase program, indicating management's belief in the stock's value at current levels [4]. - Analyst ratings have been upgraded, with Wells Fargo setting a price target of $180 and Evercore ISI suggesting a target of $190, indicating potential upside of over 50% from current levels [5]. Group 2: Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) - Darden Restaurants has seen its shares drop by 20% since June, exacerbated by a disappointing Q1 earnings report that led to a further 10% decline [6][7]. - The stock's RSI has fallen to 20, its lowest in over five years, but analysts believe that the worst may already be priced in [7]. - Major financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Evercore ISI have reiterated their Buy ratings, citing Darden's scale, pricing flexibility, and cost discipline as strengths for future growth [8]. - Updated price targets for Darden now reach as high as $240, suggesting nearly 30% upside from current levels, with signs of consolidation following the recent sell-off [8][9]. Group 3: Macro Environment - The broader market context is favorable, with falling interest rates and major indices near record highs, creating a risk-on sentiment among investors [11]. - Both Sprouts and Darden are positioned as attractive opportunities for investors seeking asymmetric upside in the current market landscape [11].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of China's ETF market, which is approaching a scale of 5.5 trillion yuan, is driven by policy support, cost advantages, transparency, and flexible trading mechanisms [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Expansion and Progress - The total scale of ETFs has surged from 4 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan in just four months [4]. - As of September 26, the total number of ETFs reached 1,319, with a net asset value of 5.497 trillion yuan, reflecting a 32.4% increase in the number of funds and an 81.8% increase in net asset value compared to the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has diversified ETF products, covering various asset classes, which enhances their attractiveness to investors [5]. - On the demand side, a recovering stock market and improved investor sentiment have led to increased inflows into ETFs, particularly during periods of market volatility [6][10]. Group 3: Role of Institutional and Retail Investors - The "national team," represented by entities like Central Huijin, has significantly increased its holdings in ETFs, spending over 210 billion yuan on 12 ETFs [7]. - Retail investors are increasingly shifting from direct stock investments to ETFs, driven by the convenience and lower costs associated with ETF investments [9][10]. Group 4: Market Competition and Risks - The ETF market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where larger funds attract more capital, leading to increased product homogeneity and potential challenges for investors in making choices [11]. - As the ETF market expands, risks such as liquidity issues during market volatility and valuation risks may accumulate, necessitating improved regulatory measures and investor education [12].

这几天，跨境圈里都在热议曾经风光无限的亚马逊家居大卖Walker Edison破产的消息。 据悉，Walker Edison家具公司及其三家关联公司已经宣布于8月28日提交破产申请，文件显示其资产最 高为5万美元，债务则在1亿至5亿美元之间。Walker Edison计划以2000万美元的价格，将资产出售给牵 头投标人，即知名家具制造商双星国际公司。 说起Walker Edison，在几年前的亚马逊家居圈，可以称得上是聚光灯下的明星企业。这家成立于2006年 的美国家居品牌，从成立之初就聚焦线上渠道，凭借高性价比、便捷组装，迅速吸引了大批年轻的消费 者，一度被视为家居电商化的标杆。 如今，它的陨落也不免让人唏嘘，这背后，也折射出美国家具家居行业的集体困境，在消费疲软、行业 竞争加剧，叠加关税政策带来的成本压力下，整个行业正经历一场痛苦的洗牌与重构。 01 Walker Edison的"起起落落" Walker Edison的崛起，离不开电商模式的红利。 感慨唏嘘之余，也再次给行业敲响了警钟。从Walker Edison的业务模式上看，其更像电商分销导向的设 计/进口商，而非重资产制造商，渠道极度平台化、进口依 ...