1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

贵金属周报 | 2025-09-28 美财长呼吁降息 多位美联储官员放鸽 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观面 2025-09-26当周，贵金属价格延续强势表现，白银价格突破46美元/盎司，创出14年新高。利率政策方面，周内美 联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；若货币政策过度宽松，通胀可能反弹；若过度紧缩，就业可能 受损。而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步 表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整体看美联储未来的降息路径依旧不确定，而市场则更倾向于押注美联储连 续降息：Fedwatch显示10月继续降息25BP概率为87.7%，暂停降息概率为12.3%。关税方面，美国总统特朗普计划 从10月1日起对多种进口商品征收高额关税；其中重型卡车将被征收25%的关税，厨房橱柜和浴室柜的关税为50%， 软垫家具为30%，而未在美国动工建设药厂的公司所生产的药品将面临100%的关税。总体来看，周内贵金属依旧 沿着宽松预期主线演绎，同时避险情绪的升温助推价格延续亮眼表现。 基本面 2025-09-26当周，上期所黄金仓单为65826千克，较此前一周变化8397千克。白 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-23 美联储内部分歧加剧 降息路径不确定性提升 市场分析 利率方面，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来降息的空间有限； 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，他目前不支持进一步降息，因为"通胀已长时间维持在过高水平"；美联储理事 米兰表示，除非情况有变，否则将继续力促降息，愿意再次投反对票。地缘方面，法国正式承认巴勒斯坦国；至 此，联合国193个会员国中已有152个国家承认巴勒斯坦国，而联合国安理会五常中只剩美国未承认巴勒斯坦国。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-22，沪金主力合约开于831.02元/克，收于846.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.92%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于847.5元/克，收于850.98元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-09-22，沪银主力合约开于9971.00元/千克，收于10317.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.47%。当日成交量 为789654手，持仓量为504051手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于10276元/千克，收于10348元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels while pausing on options [8][9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut, gold prices are expected to oscillate, but the financial attribute premium remains, so it's advisable to buy on dips. Silver's financial attribute premium is weakened, but its industrial attribute provides support, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Both are likely to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [8] Market Analysis - US initial jobless claims last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market. The US government is promoting a $5 billion mineral investment fund [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 835.34 yuan/gram and closed at 824.10 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,924.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,835.00 yuan/kg, down 0.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 646,031 lots, and the open interest was 395,854 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.101%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.544%, down 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On September 18, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 129 lots, and short positions changed by 176 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 485,609 lots, a change of 32.56% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 lots, and short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,305,261 lots, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,205.14 tons, up 15.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.58 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -823.15 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.79, down 0.60% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.92, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 49,462 kg, down 13.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 547,182 kg, down 26.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,776 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 10,320 kg [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish, buy on dips, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 815 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kg and 10,050 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Pause [9]

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-16 美经济数据维持弱势 中美经贸谈判达成框架共识 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数急剧下降21个点，至-8.7，远低于市场预期的5。新订单以及出货量 指标均跌至2024年4月以来的最低水平；疲软的经济数据推动市场交易可能出现的超预期宽松。美国总统特朗普 在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔必须立即降息，而且幅度必须比他预想 的更大。关税方面，中美经贸中方牵头人何立峰与美方牵头人贝森特在西班牙马德里举行会谈，就以合作方式妥 善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行 磋商，并履行各自国内批准程序。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-15，沪金主力合约开于833.82 元/克，收于 831.60 元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.31%。当日成交量 为 131159手，持仓量为 104349手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于833.48 元/克，收于 839.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.90%。 2025-09-15，沪银主力合约开于 10018元/千克，收于 10017 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Core View of the Report - The CPI data has shown marginal warming, but the weak employment data has left the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged. It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a similar pattern. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The annual rate of the US CPI in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months; the monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January, higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, with a market expectation of 235,000. The CME Fedwatch shows that the expectation of a rate cut has not wavered, with a 93.9% probability of a 25BP rate cut and a 6.1% probability of a 50BP rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 833.38 yuan/gram and closed at 830.78 yuan/gram, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 829.52 yuan/gram and closed at 829.26 yuan/gram, a -0.18% change from the previous afternoon's close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,803.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,798.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on the day was 301,985 lots, and the open interest was 203,343 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,777 yuan/kg and closed at 9,886 yuan/kg, a +0.90% change from the previous afternoon's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 11, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.024%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.50%, a change of -0.41BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On September 11, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 88 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 39 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 308,441 lots, a change of -41.25% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 660,300 lots, a change of -38.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 977.95 tons the previous day, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,069.6 tons, a decrease of 67.78 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 11, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was -9.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -865.00 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 84.79, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.48, a change of -0.11% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On the previous trading day (September 11, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 36,270 kg, a change of -26.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 304,080 kg, a change of -46.33% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 18,442 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 540 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 815 yuan/gram and 845 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range may be between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [10]

宽松预期持续巩固 贵金属价格高位震荡 贵金属日报 | 2025-09-10 2025-09-09，美国10年期国债利率收于4.088%，较前一交易日-0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.525%，较前一交易 日变化-0.4BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-09，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化314手，空头则是变化257手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为470523 手，较前一交易日变化6.97%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动2手，空头变动-2手。白银合约上个交易 日总成交量1067357手，较前一交易日变化-24.09%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 市场分析 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为979.68吨，较前一交易日下降-2.29吨。白银ETF持仓为15069.6吨，较前一交 易日-67.78吨。 关税方面，美国和韩国就一项3500亿美元投资基金的细节问题陷入僵局，该基金是两国更广泛贸易协议的一部分。 韩方一直向美方强调，不能接受与日本5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款；日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正表示，美 国特朗普政府对日下调汽车关税以及减轻"对等关税"负担的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Weak employment data in the US has significantly increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, with a 99.4% chance of a rate cut in September according to Fedwatch [1] - The weakening employment data and rising easing expectations are favorable for gold prices, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow due to the rising rate cut expectations and the industrial attributes of silver in a pro-cyclical context [1][8] Market Analysis - In August, the ADP employment in the US increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [1] - The ISM services PMI in the US in August was 52, with the new orders index jumping 5.7 points to 56, the largest increase since September last year [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 812.98 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was not provided, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,851.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,773.00 yuan/kg, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 788,714 lots, and the open interest was 248,568 lots [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 4, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.159%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.571%, down 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions increased by 246 lots and the short positions increased by 222 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 475,014 lots, up 13.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,537,386 lots, up 36.19% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15,230.57 tons, down 50.83 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -16.54 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -913.19 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 83.19, up 0.25% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.56, up 0.85% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 73,492 kg, up 4.59% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 580,972 kg, up 55.37% from the previous trading day [7] - The delivery volume of gold was 18,670 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,270 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2510 contract may oscillate between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2510 contract may oscillate between 9,600 yuan/kg and 10,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to ferment, and the weak economic data boosts the market to bet on the Fed's monetary policy shift. Gold prices are expected to remain in a volatile and upward pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 800 yuan/gram and 850 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver currently shares the positive logic of loose expectations with gold. Along with the expectation of improved industrial demand after interest rate cuts, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,800 yuan/kilogram and 10,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis - Macro: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many households' wages fail to keep up with rising prices. As tariffs are gradually passed through the economy, businesses in some regions have raised prices of goods and services to offset rising costs [1]. - Employment: The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million from a downwardly revised 7.36 million in June, hitting a 10 - month low and far below the expected 7.382 million [1]. - Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months, but he is open to the specific pace of rate cuts, which will depend on future economic data [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 804.42 yuan/gram and closed at 814.88 yuan/gram, up 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 817.50 yuan/gram and closed at 821.68 yuan/gram, up 0.83% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,766.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,820.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 627,101 lots, and the open interest was 270,592 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,851 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,918 yuan/kilogram, up 1.00% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 3, 2025, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note closed at 4.219%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year yields was 0.602%, down 0.43 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On September 3, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 400 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 403 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 417,207 lots, a change of 30.38% from the previous trading day [4]. - In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,128,851 lots, a change of 16.61% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 984.26 tons yesterday, down 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,366.48 tons, up 56.48 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 21.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 885.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 82.98, a change of 1.35% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold - silver ratio was 85.48, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On September 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 70,268 kilograms, a change of 35.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 373,924 kilograms, a change of - 15.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,146 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 15,030 kilograms [7]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of looser US monetary policy remains the main line for precious metals, providing strong price support. The market is waiting for US economic data to verify the urgency and pace of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical factors, such as the outcome of the US-Russia summit, also need attention. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that US interest rates should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. There is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There are 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed Chair. Trump may propose joint development of rare earth resources in Alaska and lift export bans on Russian aircraft parts during the summit. If the meeting goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 777.28 yuan/gram and closed at 777.72 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 777.10 yuan/gram, down 0.08% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,182.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,300.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 415,237 lots, and the open interest was 365,333 lots. The overnight session closed at 9,318 yuan/kilogram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.57%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 13, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 24 lots, and short positions decreased by 60 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 268,832 lots, up 10.32% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 754 lots, and short positions decreased by 550 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 640,354 lots, up 46.37% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,099.56 tons, up 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 641.74 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 83.63, down 1.00% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.82, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On August 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,602 kilograms, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 376,786 kilograms, up 24.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,014 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,070 kilograms [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,150 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage strategy: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Option strategy: Postpone [9]