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成材:原料走强,钢价跟涨
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:02
成材:原料走强 钢价跟涨 逻辑:中钢协数据显示,8 月中旬重点钢企粗钢平均日产 211.5 万吨, 日产环比增长 2.0%;钢材库存量 1567 万吨,环比上一旬增加 60 万吨, 增长 4.0%。8 月 25 日,上海市住建委、市财政局等六部门联合印发《关 于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》,出台包括调减住房限购、优化 住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政策。据国际 船舶网,8 月 18 日至 8 月 24 日,全球船厂共接获 16+4 艘新船订单。其 中中国船厂接获 8+3 艘新船订单;韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单,美国船厂 也获得相关新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材:武秋婷 成材昨日反弹上涨,一方面焦煤涨幅较大带动成材跟涨,另一方面上 海优化调整本市地产政策措施,A 股地产板块异动,间接带动成材价格上 行。目前成材面临的问题是下游偏弱,是否地产政策的调整能带动价格走 强仍需进一步观察,且近期钢价走势受原料影响较大。 观点:短期波动较大,震荡偏弱运行。 后期关注/风险因素:宏观政策;供给侧减产情况;下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格: 晨报 成材 原材料: 冯艳 ...
螺纹周报:焦煤限产再起波澜,钢价或出现反弹转机-20250825
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:30
研究报告 螺纹周报 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号:F3024460 投资咨询资格证号:Z0013724 电话:0931-8894545 邮箱:497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 焦煤限产再起波澜,钢价或出现反弹转机 投资咨询业务资格: 摘要: 黑色板块研究员:魏云 行情回顾:上周螺纹 2601 合约下跌 2.05%,周五夜盘受焦 企限产扰动,焦煤带动钢价反弹。 报告日期:2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 基本面:据 Mysteel,上周市场传闻山东焦企自 8 月 16 日 起将限产 30%–50%,预计持续至 9 月初结束。据我的钢铁网调 研,目前山东少数焦企已于上周在原有减产基础上进一步加大 限产力度,目前限产幅度在 20%-30%,后续限产比例仍将继续上 调。据世界钢铁协会数据,2025 年 7 月,全球粗钢产量为 1.5 亿吨,同比减少 1.3%;1-7 月,全球粗钢产量为 10.862 亿吨, 同比减少 1.9%。7 月中国钢铁产量 7966 万吨,同比减少 4.0%。 据中钢协数据,8 月中旬,21 个城市 ...
钢材周度策略报告:供稳需弱格局,钢价回落调整-20250818
Hua An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250813
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:28
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 8 月 13 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 原料强势带动钢价震荡走高 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址:浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线:400 618 1199 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250808
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:12
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 8 月 8 日) ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升,建筑钢厂复产,螺纹钢周产量大幅回升,且品种吨钢利润较好, 供应压力有所增加。与此同时,螺纹钢需求同样改善,高频指标环比增加,但下游行业并未改善, 淡季需求改善持续性存疑。总之,供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面并无实质性好转,淡季钢价承压运 行,相对利好则是限产预期扰动与双焦强势提振,多空因素博弈下预计钢价延续震荡调整态势,关 注钢厂生产情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 产业矛盾累积,钢价承压运行 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250805
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:40
◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行,钢价震荡走弱 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 8 月 5 日) 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势,螺纹钢周产量环比微降,供应弱稳运行,但品种吨钢利润良 好,减产持续性不强。与此同时,螺纹钢需求再度走弱,高频指标环比下降,且位于近年来同期低 位,淡季特征未退,弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看,供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面表现偏弱,钢价 承 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250723
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday view is oscillating on the weak side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials boost the price of steel, causing it to oscillate higher [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although the steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term trend is a rise, the medium - term is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday is oscillating on the weak side. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of strong raw materials boosting steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The strong performance of coking coal and coke boosts market sentiment, and the steel price continues the strong upward trend. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The rebar output has decreased month - on - month, and the supply continues to shrink. But due to good profit per ton and the return of production from some varieties, the output will rise again, with limited positive effects. The rebar demand continues to be weakly stable. The weekly apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, and although high - frequency transactions have increased due to speculative demand, both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics [3]. - Currently, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, but positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250722
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].
铁水超预期增加提振下,螺矿盘面放量突破上涨
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 06:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the steel market is affected by seasonal factors, with steel demand facing seasonal weakening pressure. The market is also concerned about future export demand. For steel, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term steel mill production cuts and the impact of the Sino - US trade war on the market. For iron ore, the short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the marginal impact of weakening terminal demand on hot metal needs to be monitored [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **[Ribbed Bars]** - **Futures**: The 10 - contract of ribbed bars continued its rebound trend driven by the reduction of short - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3147 yuan/ton, up 14.0 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Spot**: The prices of ribbed bars in mainstream regions generally increased significantly, and overall transactions improved slightly. The national average price of ribbed bars increased by 24 yuan to 3319 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 83.46%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%. The average operating rate of 87 electric furnace steel mills was 65.08%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29%. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 7.6 tons to 209.06 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Short - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China was 3147 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan. The profit of electric furnace ribbed bars was a loss of 227 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 13 yuan in the loss [5]. - **Fundamentals - Long - process Steel Mills**: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China was 2729 yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 73 yuan. The profit of blast furnace ribbed bars was 191 yuan, with a month - on - month reduction of 43 yuan. The profit of long - process steel mills shrank significantly [5]. - **Demand**: The building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of ribbed bars continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.33 tons to 9.50 tons, and the apparent demand for ribbed bars decreased by 15.33 tons to 206.17 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, while the inventory of ribbed bars began to increase slightly. As of Friday, the total inventory of ribbed bars increased by 2.89 tons to 543.26 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [9]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for ribbed bars in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the 10 - contract of ribbed bars, and the basis was expected to continue to widen [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: In the short term, ribbed bar production will continue to decline slightly, demand will decline significantly, and inventory will increase slightly. Technically, the weekly - level trend is likely to be weak, while the daily - level trend is stabilizing and rebounding [9]. **[Iron Ore]** - **Futures**: The 09 - contract of iron ore continued its rebound trend driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 785.0 yuan/ton, up 21.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 2.75% [7]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to increase slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily. Overall transactions were average [7]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 14th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2558.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 93.8 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2662.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 178.2 tons [12]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The current average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 322.74 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.23 tons. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: As of the 18th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports began to increase slightly, reaching 13785.21 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8822.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 157.48 tons [12]. - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newmann powder at Qingdao Port was the optimal delivery product at 805 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 yuan over the 10 - contract of iron ore, and the basis was expected to widen [12]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: After the end of the quarterly volume rush, the iron ore shipment volume is expected to decline, while the arrival volume will gradually increase. The short - term high hot metal output and low steel mill inventory provide strong support, but the impact of weakening terminal demand needs to be monitored [12].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250718
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a slightly bullish oscillation, and the intraday view is a slightly bearish oscillation. Investors should focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is bullish and steel prices are oscillating upwards [2]. - The supply and demand of rebar continue to weaken. Production is decreasing due to maintenance and production conversion, while demand is in the seasonal low with weak high - frequency demand indicators. However, low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. Steel prices are expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: slightly bullish oscillation; intraday: slightly bearish oscillation. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being strong market sentiment and oscillating upward steel prices. The calculation of price changes is based on night - session closing prices for products with night sessions and the previous day's closing prices for those without, and the day - session closing prices as the end price. The definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are also provided [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. Production has decreased to a low level due to maintenance and production conversion, but the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked as the profit per ton of the product is good. Demand continues to decline seasonally, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics and putting pressure on steel prices. The low inventory, policy support expectations, and strong raw materials providing cost support are positive factors. The steel price is expected to remain stable in oscillation, and the implementation of policies should be monitored [3].