策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a rebound followed by a decline, with gold and silver prices showing fluctuations while palladium and platinum have decreased in value [1][2]. Precious Metals Market Summary - Gold prices in London rose by 1.49% to $4,071.10 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold increased by 3.39% to ¥953.20 per gram, with SHFE gold holdings up by 0.39% to 347,600 contracts [1][2]. - Silver prices in London increased by 6.23% to $52.01 per ounce, and SHFE silver rose by 7.95% to ¥12,351 per kilogram, with SHFE silver holdings up by 9.89% to 763,000 contracts [1][2]. - Palladium prices in London fell by 5.46% to $1,385 per ounce, and platinum prices decreased by 3.59% to $1,532 per ounce [1][2]. Economic Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has led to the anticipation of key economic data releases, including GDP revisions and employment reports, which may impact market sentiment [3]. - Hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns [4]. - The Trump administration's plans to expand food tariff exemptions and reach trade agreements with countries like Switzerland may influence economic conditions and commodity prices [4]. Long-term Outlook for Gold - The "Trump 2.0" agenda, focusing on tariffs and tax cuts, is expected to stabilize, while the potential for interest rate cuts may provide strong support for gold prices in the latter half of the year [5]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the non-farm payroll report and GDP revisions, which are critical for assessing economic health and potential impacts on gold prices [5]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to drive global gold demand to a record high of 4,974 tons in 2024, up 1.5% from 2023, providing a solid foundation for gold prices [5][6]. - China's central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves, with a reported 7,409 million ounces (approximately 2,304.457 tons) as of the end of October, reflecting ongoing demand for gold [6].

近期金银价格有所反弹但未突破前高，我们认为主要原因包括： 1）美国政府最长停摆结束，关键数据有望陆续发布。当地时间11月12日晚，美国总统特朗普签署联邦 政府临时拨款法案，为大部分联邦机构按现有水平提供资金至2026年1月30日，结束持续43天的美国史 上最长政府停摆。据美国商务部公告，第三季度GDP修正值将于11月26日21:30公布，10月份个人收 入、支出及PCE指数将于当日23点发布；美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，下周四21:30将发布9月非农 就业报告，11月21日则发布9月实际薪资等数据。 2）多位美联储官员鹰派发声，打压12月降息预期。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆表示进一步放松政策空 间有限，必须谨慎行事，副主席菲利普·杰斐逊也强调在接近中性利率时稳步推进政策是合理的；波士 顿联储主席柯林斯认为由于通胀仍高且政府停摆导致关键数据缺失，短期内不宜进一步降息，维持现有 利率可能更合适，进一步宽松可能阻碍通胀回归目标；明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利指出，经济活动 韧性超预期，对降息必要性持谨慎态度；克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克明确表示，当前利率仍不足以限制经 济过热，需要保持政策限制性立场，预计通胀压力将持续至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of potential Fed rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to rate - cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver are facing resistance at previous high levels [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Government Shutdown - President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill provides continuous funding for the federal government until January 30, 2026. Multiple federal departments have notified employees to return to work on the 13th, but it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if normal payroll can resume quickly [1][2] Fed Policy - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire at the end of his term on February 28 next year, and the market expects the new appointee may open up more room for future rate cuts. Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep rates at the current level for some time. White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points but expects a 25 - basis - point cut. The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of future interest rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to interest - rate cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver should pay attention to the resistance at previous high positions [1] Other Key Points - After Trump signs the temporary appropriation bill, multiple federal departments such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Department of Justice have notified employees to return to work on the 13th. But it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if salary payments can resume quickly [2] - Four voting local Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another interest rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep interest rates at the current level for some time, and before cutting rates, it's necessary to ensure inflation can sustainably return to 2% [2] - White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points but expects only a 25 - basis - point cut, and is willing to accept the position of Fed Chairman if needed [2] - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - **Price Changes**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose by 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum by 1.41% to 21625.00, while some commodities like methanol fell by 3.12% to 2112.00, and iron ore dropped by 4.94% to 760.50 [2]. 2.2 A - shares - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 Index fell by 0.04% to 7327.91 [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - **Index Fluctuations**: The Nasdaq Index dropped by 3.04% to 23004.54, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 4.07% to 50276.37 [2]. 2.4 Bonds - **Yield Changes**: The yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - **Rate Movements**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose by 0.25% to 1.16, while the US dollar index fell by 0.18% to 99.55 [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement. Long - term domestic stable - expectation policies, the global AI tech cycle, and the "V - shaped reversal" of US stocks are positive factors, while US economic data and high A - share valuations are negative factors [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement. Weak fundamentals and central bank operations are positive, while inflation recovery and government bond issuance are negative [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. OPEC's production suspension and oil price cost support are positive, while US inventory accumulation and emerging oil fields' production increase are negative [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Low inventory and production issues are positive, while lack of Chinese demand and import increase are negative [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement. US government situation and supply concerns are positive, while US manufacturing data and high inventory are negative [6]. 3.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement. Inventory decline and low prices are positive, while weak demand and high capacity are negative [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Market concerns and geopolitical risks are positive, while trade relations and Fed's stance are negative [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement. Decrease in global shipments and increase in blast furnace operating rate are positive, while port inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand are negative [7].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector has experienced a rapid price decline, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly after two months of strong gains. Key factors include recent US-China trade agreements and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains optimistic due to expected monetary policy changes and central bank purchases, with global gold demand projected to reach 4,974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023 [5]. - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the precious metals sector, including Zijin Mining International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and others [5]. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold fell by 5.05% to $4,011.50 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold dropped by 7.79% to ¥921.92 per gram. Silver prices also saw declines of 9.50% and 6.60% respectively [9][10]. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with the target range now at 3.75%-4.00%. There are indications of internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4][5]. Holdings and Trading Volume - The report notes a decrease in trading volumes for both gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with gold holdings down by 12.54% to 346,200 contracts and silver holdings down by 17.11% to 694,300 contracts [10][41]. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest report, the international gold basis (spot-futures) is at -$1.90 per ounce, an increase of $41.25 from two weeks prior, while the domestic gold basis is at -0.90 yuan per gram, up by 3.00 yuan [61][62].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The dot plot indicates that Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, with a median forecast for the year-end rate at 3.6% [3] - The decision to halt balance sheet reduction is significant, as it signals the end of years of quantitative tightening [5] Group 2 - There is notable internal disagreement within the Fed, with two members voting against the decision, indicating uncertainty in future monetary policy [5] - Historical trends show that when the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, it significantly impacts global mainstream assets, potentially supporting risk assets like A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [5][8] - Fed Chair Powell's hawkish remarks during the press conference surprised the market, emphasizing that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed [5][7] Group 3 - Powell highlighted the challenges in decision-making due to delayed economic data from the government shutdown, which complicates the Fed's assessment [7] - Inflation remains a concern, with core PCE inflation projected at 2.3%-2.4%, close to the Fed's 2% target [7] - The Fed's preventive rate cuts are expected to improve global liquidity, enhancing investor appetite for equity assets, particularly in emerging markets [7] Group 4 - The A-share market is likely to be significantly influenced by the Fed's policy shift, with historical data suggesting strong performance during Fed rate-cutting cycles [8][10] - The A-share market has evolved, with total market capitalization exceeding 118 trillion yuan and a more rational valuation compared to previous years [10] - The growth sector is expected to benefit directly from the Fed's rate cuts, as lower financing costs will support domestic technological innovation [12] Group 5 - Despite the overall positive impact of the Fed's rate cut on risk assets, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, including market volatility due to expectation discrepancies [12] - Domestic fundamentals, such as real estate risk resolution and consumer recovery, are crucial for the sustainability of the A-share market rebound [12] - The Fed's policy may fluctuate, with Powell warning that inflation risks have not been resolved, adding to policy uncertainty [12][13]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% due to recession fears and expectations of renewed tariffs [4] - Copper prices have rebounded by 2.25% on the LME, driven by tariff expectations, despite some pressure from lower downstream demand [5] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply concerns following the announcement of export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant weekly increases in various cobalt compounds [6] - The report indicates that rare earth prices have decreased but are expected to stabilize due to tightened export controls and ongoing demand in sectors like energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index for the industry is at 7322.8, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.25%, aluminum by 1.18%, while zinc, lead, and tin experienced declines [19] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold up by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [19] Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories increased by 16,766 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 6,049 tons [33][35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold ETFs reflects a significant increase in gold prices driven by geopolitical risks and changes in global liquidity expectations, with a notable rise in trading volume and net inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of October 20, 2025, the gold ETF (159937) has decreased by 2.36%, with a latest price of 9.33 yuan, while showing an 11.33% increase over the past week as of October 17 [3]. - The trading volume for the gold ETF reached 12.23 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.14%, and an average daily trading volume of 31.28 billion yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in international gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risk, a weakening global credit system, and changing liquidity expectations, with multiple factors contributing to the current market dynamics [4][5]. - Key pressures on the gold market include a high concentration of long positions and the potential for speculative funds to take profits, which could lead to increased volatility and a possible price correction [4]. Group 3: Institutional Trends - There has been a consistent net inflow into the largest gold ETF, SPDR, and the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 11 consecutive months, although its reserves remain lower than the global average of 15%-20% [5]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold investments is observed across both institutional and individual investors [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as a weakening U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical instability, which are expected to support continued central bank purchases of gold [5]. - The latest share count for the gold ETF reached 4.166 billion, marking a one-year high [5].