华源证券最新研报观点认为，中国医药生物行业已基本完成新旧动能转换，创新药显著打开增长新曲 线。创新产业规模逐步扩大，恒瑞医药、翰森制药等传统药企完成创新转型，百利天恒等公司以全球首 创姿态崛起；出海能力持续提升，中国药企成为跨国药企重要的创新来源，医疗设备和供应链在全球市 场崭露头角。 Wind数据显示，四季度以来，多家创新药企业迎来内外资机构的密集调研。其中，百济神州获得88家 公募和外资机构调研；泽璟制药获得36家公募和外资机构调研；迈威生物和微芯生物也获得10家以上公 募和外资机构调研。 规模方面，截至2025年11月21日，港股创新药ETF最新规模达241.02亿元。从资金净流入方面来看，港 股创新药ETF近6天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得5657.52万元净流入，合计"吸金"1.70亿元。 有机构认为，中国医药产业已迈入"创新兑现+全球布局"的关键阶段，人口与内需基数、全产业链制造 能力构成核心支撑，企业积极探索多元化的出海路径。展望2026年，可以重点关注创新商业化、全球化 突破、政策优化带来的新增量及行业并购整合的机遇。中信建投指出，医保谈判稳步推进，创新产品有 望惠及更多患者，2025年新 ...

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.09% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.51, with a trading volume of 63.67 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13228.50, with a trading volume of 92.07 billion [2] - The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.46%, with notable declines in companies like Xpeng, NIO, and Baidu, which dropped over 2% [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities forecasts that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to be an overweight sector, driven by innovation and supportive policies, leading to stable growth in the domestic market [4] - China Galaxy Securities reports that the machinery industry has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 18924 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.43% [5] - Huatai Securities expresses optimism for the power grid equipment sector, highlighting a 47% and 44% increase in the unit price of new standard electric meters and transformers, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [6]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical investment trend by 2026, driven by both domestic innovation and supportive policies [1] - The healthcare industry is expected to gradually return to a market pricing system based on clinical value and demand, leading to a stable domestic pharmaceutical market environment [1] - Listed companies in the pharmaceutical sector are anticipated to experience continuous and stable performance growth, contributing to the industry's growth certainty [1] Summary by Categories Investment Trends - The pharmaceutical industry is projected to maintain an overweight status, with a focus on innovation-driven and internationalization strategies [1] - Key investment themes for 2026 include: 1) Innovation-driven and internationalization, 2) Self-sufficiency, 3) Beneficiaries of policy changes such as optimized procurement and healthcare payment reforms [1] Market Environment - The internal and external catalysts for the healthcare industry are expected to persist, fostering a long-term development trend characterized by stability and growth [1] - The emphasis on clinical value and demand in pricing is likely to enhance the overall market environment for pharmaceuticals [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) experienced a decline of 1.48% with a trading volume of nearly 2 billion CNY on September 23, 2025, and has seen a net inflow of over 15 billion CNY in the past 10 days [1] - As of September 22, 2025, the total size of the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (159570) exceeded 21.6 billion CNY, leading its peers in both size and liquidity [1] - The underlying index components of the ETF mostly showed negative performance, with notable declines in China Biologic Products and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, while Kangfang Biotech rose over 4% due to positive research news [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Morgan Stanley noted that the total market capitalization of Chinese biotech stocks listed in Hong Kong has increased by 154% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 34% increase, indicating a major shift in market recognition of local pharmaceutical innovation capabilities [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is entering a new development phase driven by innovation, with major companies showing stable growth and transitioning from generic to innovative drugs [3][4] - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support for innovative drugs, with recent announcements from the National Medical Insurance Bureau indicating a focus on optimizing drug procurement and supporting innovative products [5] Group 3: Company Performance - Hengrui Medicine reported a revenue of 15.76 billion CNY for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, with a net profit of 4.45 billion CNY, up 29.67% [4] - China Biologic Products achieved a revenue of 17.58 billion CNY in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a net profit increase of 13.10% [4] - Innovent Biologics demonstrated significant growth in innovative drug revenue, with a 26% increase in H1 2025, contributing to a 32% rise in net profit [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue benefiting from improved global liquidity and supportive national policies for innovation, with a focus on emerging technologies and international competitiveness [7] - The industry is anticipated to see long-term growth opportunities, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, as well as potential challenges associated with international expansion [7] - The recent adjustments in the national drug procurement policy are expected to stabilize the market for generic drugs, reducing the impact of price competition on the sector [5]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Medical Device Sector - The pharmaceutical and medical device sector experienced an overall decline of 2.07% from September 15 to September 19, 2025, ranking 23rd among 31 industries, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 24.17%, ranking 10th among 31 industries and outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.76 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the sector is 31.18 times, at the historical median level, with a 136% premium over the CSI 300 valuation [5][6][7]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration has completed the review of the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Directory and the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, moving into the core negotiation and price consultation phase. The 11th batch of national procurement has officially included 55 major varieties, with optimizations in application requirements, volume, and rules, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [6][7]. - The Shanghai government has issued a comprehensive action plan to promote the high-end medical device industry, focusing on innovation, clinical empowerment, regulatory approval, market application, enterprise cultivation, and international development, with 20 key tasks outlined to support industry growth [6][7]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial index fell by 3.7% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.3 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing synchronized declines of -3.5% and -4.8%, respectively. The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 29,885 billion yuan, an 8% increase from the previous week [9][10]. - Market enthusiasm and activity remain high, with a focus on the performance catalysts from the upcoming third-quarter reports. The average daily trading volume for stock funds has increased by 108% year-on-year as of September 19, 2025, positively impacting brokerage, credit, and proprietary trading sectors [10][12]. - The establishment of a health management company by PICC and the continued increase of holdings in China Pacific Insurance by Ping An Life indicate a trend towards integrating health management with health insurance, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability [11][12]. Group 3: Economic and Market Overview - The LPR for both the 5-year and 1-year terms remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3%, respectively, as of September 2025, indicating stable lending rates [14]. - The steel industry has set a target for an average annual growth of 4% over the next two years, with a strict prohibition on new capacity additions, reflecting a focus on structural adjustment and high-quality development [16]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,828 points, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also saw gains, indicating a cautious recovery amid ongoing market volatility [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][33]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced an overall decline of 2.07% from September 15 to September 19, ranking 23rd among 31 industries in the Shenwan index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.63 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 24.17%, ranking 10th among the 31 industries and outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.76 percentage points [3][12][16]. - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 31.18 times, which is at the historical median level, with a valuation premium of 136% compared to the CSI 300 index [3][19]. - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the completion of the review for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Directory and the formal release of the 11th batch of national procurement documents, which includes 55 major varieties [4][27][28]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's performance for the week of September 15-19 showed a decline of 2.07%, with the top three declining sub-sectors being biological products (-3.47%), chemical pharmaceuticals (-2.43%), and traditional Chinese medicine II (-2.13%) [3][12]. - Year-to-date, the sector has increased by 24.17%, with the top three performing sub-sectors being medical services (46.19%), chemical pharmaceuticals (41.47%), and biological products (16.75%) [16][19]. Industry News - On September 20, the National Medical Insurance Administration completed the review of the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Directory and the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, moving into the core negotiation and pricing phase [4][27]. - The 11th batch of national procurement was officially released on September 20, optimizing the requirements for bidding companies and the rules for procurement, which is expected to be a significant turning point for the industry [4][28]. - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued a plan to promote the development of the high-end medical device industry, aiming to enhance innovation and international competitiveness by 2027 [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the progress of the medical insurance directory negotiations and the implications of the national procurement policies. It recommends investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services [5][30]. - Recommended stocks include Teva Biopharmaceuticals, Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals, Betta Pharmaceuticals, Kaili Medical, and Huaxia Eye Hospital, with additional stocks to watch including Kelun Pharmaceutical, Qianhong Pharmaceutical, Yifeng Pharmacy, Baipusais, and Lingrui Pharmaceutical [5][30].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The industry is positioned for a "Davis double" effect, where both performance and valuation are expected to improve [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions, while domestic replacements continue to grow, and overseas business progresses rapidly [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing after centralized procurement, with new products expected to contribute to growth [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a high-speed growth in bidding data, with companies entering a destocking phase, which is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is seeing continuous product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to upgrade towards new products, gradually improving the industry's overall health [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The industry is at an upward turning point due to the end of a capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits in the medium term [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is seeing a revival in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs, while the retail pharmacy sector is influenced by supply-side adjustments and business model upgrades [2]. - The performance of offline pharmacies is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with leading chains like YaoXingTang making progress in store upgrades [2]. Group 8: Research Reports - A series of in-depth research reports on various companies and sectors within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries have been published, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [3][4].

Group 1 - The medical device ETF (159873) experienced a significant increase, rising nearly 3% and ranking among the top ten ETFs in the market as of August 7, 2025 [3] - The underlying index, the CSI All Share Medical Equipment and Services Index (H30178), saw a strong rise of 1.57%, with notable individual stocks like Lide Man (300289) up 20.02%, Sino Medical (688108) up 20.01%, and Zhonghong Medical (300981) up 19.99% [3] - Over the past week, the medical device ETF (159873) achieved an average daily trading volume of 7.11 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2 - The eleventh batch of national drug centralized procurement has officially started, with the National Healthcare Security Administration announcing the collection of demand for 55 drug varieties from August 6 to 25 [4] - According to CITIC Securities, there is a possibility of price increases for categories already included in national or provincial procurement, while categories not yet included may see moderate price reductions or not be procured at all [4] - Xiangcai Securities noted that the innovative drug industry chain has been active under the backdrop of national encouragement for innovation, although the recovery of the pharmaceutical industry still needs verification [4] Group 3 - The Biopharmaceutical ETF (159859) and its linked funds are the largest and most liquid products in the sector, with the highest year-to-date growth among comparable funds, covering various segments including innovative drugs and vaccines [5] - The Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380) is the only ETF tracking the Hang Seng Shanghai-Shenzhen Hong Kong Innovative Drug Selected 50 Index, providing comprehensive coverage of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the healthcare equipment and services sector is experiencing positive momentum due to recent government initiatives aimed at supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs and medical devices [1][2] - The CSI All Share Healthcare Equipment and Services Index (H30178) saw a significant increase, with notable stock performances including Diligent Medical (up 20.03%), Hotgen Biotech (up 9.14%), and others [1] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the 11th batch of drug procurement, focusing on optimizing procurement rules to ensure clinical stability, quality assurance, and prevent price collusion [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that for categories already included in national or provincial procurement, there may be price increases upon renewal, while categories not yet included may see moderate price reductions or no procurement at all [2] - The trend of optimizing procurement processes is expected to enhance market sentiment, leading to a valuation recovery for companies within the sector as they approach performance turning points in the second half of the year [2] - The CCB CSI All Share Healthcare Equipment and Services ETF (159891) closely tracks the CSI All Share Healthcare Equipment and Services Index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the healthcare theme [2]

Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance on July 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.68% and the ChiNext Index slightly up by 0.43, indicating a volatile trading day [1] - AI concept stocks performed strongly, with several hardware stocks like Cambridge Technology and Invech hitting the daily limit, while innovative drug stocks like Kangyuan Pharmaceutical also saw significant gains [1] Sector Analysis - Chemical pharmaceuticals, software development, IT services, and AI-related sectors showed the highest gains, while steel, coal mining, precious metals, and real estate sectors faced the largest declines [2] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities identified four key trends in the AI large model industry chain, including a shift to token-driven growth, increasing demand for server computing power, a lead of B-end commercialization over C-end consumer products, and healthy competition among domestic and international firms [3] - CITIC Securities noted a clear signal for policy shifts supporting the innovative drug and medical device industries, suggesting potential recovery in valuations and performance for the medical device sector [3] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for July was 49.3, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [5] - The National Energy Administration announced that the cumulative photovoltaic power generation in the first half of the year reached 559.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%, with significant growth in both centralized and distributed photovoltaic installations [6]