Hi~ 朋友们 不知道你有没有意识到 美元今年是跌惨了 上半年是近半个世纪 表现最差的一年 从年初到现在 美元指数已经下跌了超过10% 你别觉得10%没多少啊 这可是美元 不是什么比特币 这是全球资产的标尺 这个尺子半年里头缩短了10% 约等于所有人都长高了10% 与此同时 全球的资产价格都出现了久违的爆发 最猛的就是黄金 你就看这张图 这是过去半个世纪黄金的走势 我只能用疯狂来形容 比特币也是创出了新高 也疯狂 不过它可能一直都挺疯狂 除此之外 全球的股市也是 什么美股 欧股 A股 港股 日股 它全涨 事出反常必有妖 这个妖在哪里 咱们今天就来看看 这个美元暴跌的背后 今天呢 我来跟大家来一个专业一点 但同时又很直观很有意思的方式来聊 就是看图说话 来先看几张图 这个是美元指数 而这个是美股标普500指数 你看啊 之前股市跟美元相关性还是非常高的 大家是一起涨一起跌 但你看这两个人 手拉手高高兴兴共振着呢 怎么5月份开始 刚振到一半 股票就说哎 "算了不跟你玩了" 自己跑了 美元一个人孤零零的留在了底下 我再给你看个共振得更happy的 这个是美元指数 和美国10年期国债利率的共振 也是之前玩的好好的 5月 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding volatility in investment, emphasizing that it is a significant risk factor that can impact investor returns [3][4][11] - It contrasts two funds: Fund A with a 15% annualized return but high volatility, and Fund B with a 10% return and low volatility, suggesting that investors in Fund B may achieve better average returns due to lower drawdowns [10][11] - The article highlights that while volatility is often viewed as a risk, some investment experts, like Warren Buffett, argue that it should not be equated with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [12][14] Group 2 - The article explains that volatility can be seen as a source of potential returns, particularly in trading strategies that embrace market fluctuations [15][20] - It outlines different investor attitudes towards volatility: risk-averse investors view it as a risk to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][24] - The discussion includes various trading strategies that leverage volatility, such as grid trading and trend trading, which require different approaches to managing risk and returns [20][22]

Investment Philosophy - Focus on investing within one's circle of competence to avoid gambling [1] - Learn from historical and real-time cases, especially failures, to avoid repeating mistakes [1] - Emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate role models for learning and imitation [1] Personal Development & Networking - Investing in oneself is the most fundamental investment, regardless of initial capital [3] - AI application skills, programming skills, wealth management skills, emotional intelligence, social skills, reputation, and network are all valuable investments in oneself [3] - Building a strong personal brand can lead to significant opportunities [3] - Cultivating relationships with successful individuals is crucial for learning and growth [1] - Internet facilitates connections with desired role models, enabling learning and emulation [1][3] Risk Management in Crypto Market - Common pitfalls in the crypto market include using leverage, experiencing fund theft, exchange/project failures, and overconfidence leading to poor investment decisions [1]

我买的是这个，刚刚先发浇流群了 #EAGLECA：Gda9jAmo4DhRzdwA1P8zkYVL3d9HXYZf41QxBNm5JRxZ注意风险 翻倍出本去码头整点薯条 (@0xCryptoFries):gm 起床看到 #USD1 官宣mint 出来了我看链上有假的要注意，目前还没加流动池，应该还没开权限，所以还不能swap确认ca：USD1ttGY1N17NEEHLmELoaybftRBUSErhqYiQzvEmuB收集了几个大额mint地址可以关注一下：4Lo5Xpfq5fG9Z9XFFo3FxaFej18zEMfHBABaV8teAACw ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the importance of risk management and preparation in both sailing and entrepreneurship, highlighting that true adventurers are those who prepare extensively to mitigate risks rather than seeking thrill for its own sake [2][7][13]. Group 1: Risk Management and Preparation - Sailors, including the first Chinese woman to circumnavigate the globe, are portrayed as individuals who actually dislike risk and prepare meticulously to handle potential dangers [2][7]. - The design of sailing equipment takes into account various risks, such as lightning strikes, ensuring that essential systems remain operational even in adverse conditions [4][5][6]. - The concept of "adventure" is redefined as navigating without a map, relying on experience and intuition, akin to how entrepreneurs must navigate uncertainty in business [7][8]. Group 2: Leadership and Team Dynamics - A successful captain must possess resilience, a willingness to endure hardship, and a strong capacity for learning and adapting [8][12]. - The relationship between a captain and crew is built on trust and obedience, where the crew must follow the captain's orders for collective survival [21][22]. - The notion that there is no "best captain" but rather experienced ones who can ensure the safety and survival of their crew is emphasized, paralleling the idea of sustainable businesses [23][29]. Group 3: Innovation and Experience - Innovation in sailing often stems from past experiences, where sailors must creatively solve problems based on what they have learned [23][24]. - The discussion suggests that intuition in business, much like in sailing, is developed through extensive practice and experience rather than innate talent [25][27]. - The importance of adapting to changing conditions, whether in sailing or business, is highlighted, with the need for flexibility in plans based on real-time assessments [18][19]. Group 4: Personal Growth and Philosophy - The journey at sea is likened to a personal quest for understanding and growth, where challenges lead to self-discovery [34][36]. - The metaphor of the sea as a home reflects the deep connection between individuals and their pursuits, whether in sailing or business [42][44]. - The idea that true fulfillment comes from embracing challenges and learning from them is a central theme, suggesting that both sailors and entrepreneurs find meaning in their struggles [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Goldman Sachs highlighted ongoing risks related to geopolitical concerns and pending trade agreements [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions continue to pose risks to the market environment [1] - Uncertainty surrounding trade agreements remains a significant concern for investors [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Economic Forum Summer Davos held from June 24 to 26 in Tianjin focused on "New Era Entrepreneurial Spirit," addressing global economic challenges and new growth models with participation from over 1,700 guests from around 90 countries [2][4] Group 1: Themes and Discussions - The event featured a masterclass on "Risk, Resilience, and Industrial Transformation Strategies," co-hosted by Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and the World Economic Forum, aimed at exploring governance strategies for businesses amid uncertainty [2][4] - Key discussions included enhancing corporate resilience through advanced analytical tools and frameworks to navigate complex challenges [6][9] Group 2: Insights from Experts - Liu Qiao emphasized the importance of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the context of China-U.S. economic competition, noting that China's TFP growth slowed to 1.2%-1.5% post-2010, but strategic initiatives in new energy and digital technology could drive future GDP growth [9][10] - René Rohrbeck introduced the "Future Adaptability" framework, highlighting the need for companies to develop three core capabilities: system observation, foresight, and experimentation, which can significantly enhance profitability and market value [11][12] - Jörgen Sandström discussed the potential of industrial clusters in improving regional cooperation and resource sharing, advocating for data-driven collaborative governance to address supply chain risks [13][14] Group 3: Industry Responses - Wang Nan from Neusoft Group shared challenges faced by companies in international markets, stressing the need for flexible business strategies and local partnerships to navigate rising tariffs and market access issues [17][18] - Caroline Berson from PepsiCo highlighted the importance of a robust strategic framework for managing policy risks, advocating for strong trend scanning capabilities to adapt to ongoing trade changes [19][20] - Dai Xin from Swiss Re pointed out the relatively weak risk protection mechanisms in China, suggesting that improved risk management is essential for sustainable growth [21][22]

Group 1 - HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast from $3,015 per ounce to $3,215 per ounce [1] - The bank has also increased its 2026 average price forecast from $2,915 per ounce to $3,125 per ounce [1] - The adjustments are attributed to rising risks and increasing government debt [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between wealth, skills, and cognitive ability, emphasizing that for most ordinary people, the primary way to earn money is through selling their skills and time rather than relying solely on cognitive enhancement [8][12][24] - It highlights the societal stratification in terms of income generation, where the lowest tier sells pure time, the middle tier sells skills along with time, and the top tier engages in high-risk, high-reward activities [2][3][4] - The article suggests that many individuals mistakenly believe that enhancing their cognitive abilities will directly lead to wealth, while in reality, practical skills and the ability to sell are more crucial [17][24][25] Group 2 - The text points out that a significant number of people with high cognitive abilities still struggle financially due to a lack of practical skills or luck, indicating that cognitive enhancement alone is insufficient for financial success [12][26] - It mentions that many wealthy individuals often rely on marketing and risk-taking rather than deep knowledge, suggesting that practical experience and the ability to sell are more valuable in the marketplace [18][24] - The article concludes that for ordinary people, the best approach to achieving success is through passion and repetition, which can lead to skill improvement and increased opportunities [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Panetta, stated that the macroeconomic outlook continues to face significant and hard-to-quantify risks [1] Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by uncertainty, which complicates forecasting and decision-making [1] - Risks are not only significant but also difficult to measure, indicating potential volatility in economic indicators [1]