Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, it enters the production reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,800, and the basis is 112. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,700, and the basis is -68. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as that of soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure decreases in the production reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,340, and the basis is 453. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On March 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish**: The edible oil prices are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic edible oil inventory continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate strongly. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8840, the basis is 212, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9740, the basis is 22, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10300, the basis is 424, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Unlikely**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is highly uncertain, and oil prices have stopped falling and risen, providing support for the oil and fat sector. The Indonesian government plans to cancel the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026 due to factors such as funding and technology, but related research work is still ongoing. The US Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel policy in early March, maintaining the biofuel blending obligation at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. The US 45Z proposed rule maintains the tax credit scope for North American raw materials [3]. - High - frequency data from various institutions show that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month in January, and export demand continued to improve. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in January, with imports reaching 766,000 tons, a 51% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will decline in the first quarter, providing support for prices. Reuters' forecast shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will drop to 2.91 million tons, pending the release of the MPOB report. Before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and the overall trading is light. The number of ship purchases for February shipments is relatively large year - on - year, and it is expected that domestic inventory will increase. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations will lead to the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports starting in March, and the crushing of Australian rapeseed will gradually start, increasing the long - term supply of rapeseed oil [4][43]. - Macroscopically, Wash has been nominated as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the employment market is relatively weak, the US dollar index has stopped falling and rebounded, but its momentum is slowing down; oil prices have stopped falling and risen, and attention should be paid to the further development of the US - Iran situation. Fundamentally, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US biodiesel policy. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will enter a de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, providing support for prices, pending the release of the MPOB report. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate and adjust in February, with support at the bottom [4][44]. Summary by Directory I. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - **Market Trend**: Since January, the oil and fat sector has fluctuated and strengthened. With the gradual fermentation of multiple positive factors, the oils and fats have strengthened and accelerated, but with the ebb of the sentiment in the metal and crude oil markets, there has been a significant decline and adjustment in the oils and fats recently. In the domestic market, at the end of January, the palm oil 05 contract rose 656 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, a 7.64% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 420 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, a 5.34% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 293 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, a 3.22% increase. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 159 to close at 4,209 ringgit/ton, a 3.93% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 5.17 to close at 53.72 cents/pound, a 10.65% increase; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 45 to close at 647.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 7.47% increase. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 670 to close at 9,260 yuan/ton, a 7.80% increase; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 360 to close at 8,600 yuan/ton, a 4.37% increase; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 110 to close at 10,140 yuan/ton, a 1.10% increase [9]. - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: In early January, high - frequency data initially showed a decrease in the production of Malaysian palm oil and an improvement in export demand, supporting the price to fluctuate and rise. The December MPOB report showed an unexpected inventory build - up, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. Due to factors such as funding and technology, the Indonesian government announced the cancellation of the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Coupled with the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of trade relations, the resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports led to a significant weakening of rapeseed oil, dragging down the oils and fats. In the second half of the month, palm oil started to rise. Firstly, the high - frequency data on the supply and demand of the origin continued to be released, confirming the expectation of tight supply and demand, supporting the price to strengthen; the upcoming release of the US biodiesel policy boosted the positive expectation; Trump threatened to impose a 100% tax on Canada, and the Canadian side stated that it had not signed a free - trade agreement with China, which led to an increase in the sentiment of the rapeseed sector; the tense situation in Iran escalated, and oil prices fluctuated and rose; and the hot market sentiment of commodities drove palm oil to rise strongly. By the end of the month, the panic sentiment in precious metals fermented and retreated significantly, cooling the commodity market, and the price fell and adjusted from a high level [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis - **MPOB Report**: The data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) for December showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 3.05 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase, slightly higher than market expectations; the export volume was 1.317 million tons, an 8.52% month - on - month increase; the production was 1.83 million tons, a 5.76% month - on - month decrease; the demand for Malaysian palm oil in December was 331,000 tons, compared with 374,000 tons in the previous month [16]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports**: According to the latest data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from January 1 - 31, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 13.78% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.16% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month compared with the same period last month. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in January decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia decreased by 16.65%, in Sabah by 8.96%, in Sarawak by 17.07%, and in Borneo by 11.09%. According to the data from the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.93% increase compared with the 1,240,587 tons exported in the same period last month. According to the data from the Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 1,375,718 tons, a 14.89% increase compared with the 1,197,434 tons exported in the same period last month. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31, 2026 was 944,885 tons, a 5.58% decrease compared with the 1,000,703 tons exported in the same period last month [25]. - **Indonesia Situation**: According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), in October 2025, the production of Indonesian palm oil (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a 460,000 - ton month - on - month increase from 4.3 million tons in September; in October 2024, the palm oil production was 4.84 million tons, an 80,000 - ton year - on - year decrease, and the five - year average was 4.89 million tons; from January to October 2025, the total production of Indonesian palm oil was 48.09 million tons, a 4.31 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 43.78 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, in October 2025, the export volume of Indonesian palm oil was 2.8 million tons, a 60,000 - ton month - on - month increase from 2.2 million tons in September; in October 2024, the export volume of palm oil was 2.89 million tons, a 90,000 - ton year - on - year decrease; from January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of Indonesian palm oil was 27.7 million tons, a 2.86 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 24.84 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of domestic consumption, in October 2025, the domestic consumption volume was 2.23 million tons, an 180,000 - ton month - on - month decrease from 2.05 million tons in September; in October 2024, the palm oil consumption volume was 2.08 million tons, a 150,000 - ton year - on - year increase, and the five - year average was 1.84 million tons; from January to October 2025, the cumulative domestic palm oil consumption volume was 20.69 million tons, a 5.3% year - on - year increase from 19.64 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, in October 2025, the palm oil inventory was 2.33 million tons, compared with 2.59 million tons in the previous month and 2.5 million tons in the same period last year [29]. - **India's Vegetable Oil Imports**: According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), in December 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.36 million tons, compared with 1.15 million tons in November; in December 2024, the imports were 1.23 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.33 million tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian vegetable oil were 15.69 million tons, a 660,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 16.35 million tons in the same period last year. For different oils, in December 2025, India's palm oil imports were 510,000 tons, compared with 630,000 tons in the previous month and 500,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 770,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian palm oil were 7.38 million tons, a 1.21 - million - ton year - on - year decrease from 8.59 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 510,000 tons, compared with 370,000 tons in the previous month and 460,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 320,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian soybean oil were 5.46 million tons, a 1.44 - million - ton year - on - year increase from 4.02 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 350,000 tons, compared with 143,000 tons in the previous month and 271,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 240,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of Indian sunflower oil were 2.81 million tons, a 930,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 3.74 million tons in the same period last year [31][32]. - **China's Oil and Fat Imports**: According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, in December 2025, China's palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, compared with 330,000 tons in the previous month and 320,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 420,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic palm oil imports were 2.58 million tons, a 230,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 2.81 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 220,000 tons, compared with 166,000 tons in the previous month and 213,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 160,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic rapeseed oil imports were 2.13 million tons, a 250,000 - ton year - on - year increase from 1.88 million tons in the same period last year. In December 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 65,000 tons, compared with 49,000 tons in the previous month and 47,000 tons in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 166,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative domestic sunflower oil imports were 520,000 tons, compared with 1.086 million tons in the same period last year. In general, in December 2025, the imports of the above three major oils and fats were 565,000 tons, compared with 545,000 tons in the previous month, 580,000 tons in December 2024, and the five - year average was 746,000 tons; in 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils and fats were 5.23 million tons, a 540,000 - ton year - on - year decrease from 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [35][36]. - **Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory**: According to the data from My Agri - data, as of the week of January 30, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in key regions across the country was 1.8942 million tons, a 58,600 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 30,600 - ton decrease from the same period last year; among them, the soybean oil inventory was 946,800 tons, a 9,200 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 48,500 - ton increase from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a 40,900 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 210,900 - ton increase from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, an 8,500 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 290,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [38]. III. Summary and Outlook - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran is highly uncertain, and oil prices have stopped falling and risen, providing support for the oil and fat sector. The Indonesian government plans to cancel the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026 due to factors such as funding and technology, but related research work is still ongoing. The US Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel policy in early March, maintaining the biofuel blending obligation at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons and abandoning the plan to punish the import of renewable fuels and their raw materials. The US 45Z proposed rule maintains the tax credit scope for North American raw materials [43]. - High - frequency data from various institutions show that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month in January, and export demand continued to improve. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in January, with imports reaching 766,000 tons, a 51% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will decline in the first quarter, providing support for prices. Reuters' forecast shows that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil will drop to 2.91 million tons, pending the release of the M

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans declined from a one-week high, influenced by concerns over South American harvest pressure despite a temporary boost from the sale of 336,000 tons of soybeans to China [2][10] - Domestic soybean meal prices increased due to rising import costs and a slight recovery in oil mill crushing volume, although supply pressure remains high [2][10] - The market is expected to remain range-bound ahead of the USDA supply and demand report, with a strategy of double selling recommended [2][10] Group 2: Palm Oil - BMD palm oil prices fell due to a stronger Malaysian ringgit, but gains in surrounding markets limited the decline [3][11] - December palm oil inventory is projected to reach its highest level in nearly seven years, while India's palm oil imports dropped to an eight-month low [3][11] - Domestic oilseed markets showed a warming trend, with soybean oil outperforming canola oil and palm oil, and a focus on the upcoming discussions between the Canadian president and China [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures rebounded, with the main contract rising by 1.29% to 11,810 yuan/ton, supported by tight supply and increased demand for heavier pigs [5][12] - The average price of live pigs in China increased slightly, with notable price rises in several provinces [5][12] - The number of breeding sows continued to decline, providing support for the futures market, with a recommendation to set dynamic stop-loss orders [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced slight adjustments, with the main contract rising by 0.27% to 3,000 yuan per 500 kg, while the national average price of eggs also increased [6][13] - Trade dynamics showed normal digestion at the terminal level, with most traders following market trends [6][13] - The market is currently at a cyclical low, with uncertainty regarding the timing of capacity reduction, suggesting a cautious approach [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn trading was active, with the main contract showing a mixed performance influenced by bearish policies related to wheat sales [7][14] - Prices in the northeast remained stable, but farmers exhibited reluctance to sell, leading to a slow market [7][14] - The overall market is expected to maintain a bearish outlook due to ongoing policy influences, with increased purchasing activity anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches [7][14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures shows a pattern of low - level fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the rebound space of bean futures prices is limited [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 1. Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: US soybean exports are weak and there is still a pressure of a bumper harvest in Brazil. The market is waiting for the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture report. The domestic soybean meal inventory is 113.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%. After the festival, replenishment by traders and feed mills has increased trading volume. The increase in US soybean prices and a slight rise in Brazilian premiums have offset the cost pressure caused by the appreciation of the RMB, strengthening the support of import costs, but there is still resistance above [5]. 2. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, and the reference view is also weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: BMD palm oil has fluctuated and declined. The market expects the MPOB report to show that the inventory at the end of December will reach a 7 - year high, and India's palm oil imports in December dropped to an 8 - month low. However, poor production at the beginning of December provides support at low levels. The total inventory of the three major edible oils in China at the end of the first week is 2.2465 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0104 billion tons. Among them, soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories have been decreasing, while palm oil inventory has continued to accumulate, highlighting the pressure on palm oil futures and spot prices [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,254, with a basis of 398, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward-sloping. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil is entering the production increase season, so the supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,480, with a basis of 8, showing a slight spot premium over futures. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Same MPOB report situation as above, and entering the production increase season with increased supply. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,926, with a basis of 882, indicating a significant spot premium over futures. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season factor. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025 from January to November, the weighted index of palm oil prices fluctuated between rising and falling. The trading rhythm was affected by factors such as the expected difference and implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the release and progress of the US biodiesel policy, the expected difference in production and export demand, the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, and the repeated geopolitical situations causing greater fluctuations in crude oil prices [3][47] - In 2026, the global palm oil production is expected to increase by 2% - 3%, approximately 1.6 - 2.4 million tons, with the USDA estimating the global production at 80 million tons. Indonesia's production will only increase slightly due to policy - restricted planting area, possibly benefiting from improved technical management efficiency. Malaysia's palm oil production will remain at 20 million tons in 2026, basically the same as the previous year, mainly because of the aging of palm trees and the slow replanting progress [3][47] - Malaysia is currently facing high inventory pressure, and its subsequent tariffs may be adjusted to promote exports. The USDA expects the new - year export volume to be 16.1 million tons, a slight increase. Indonesia's export demand may increase slightly due to the postponement of the biodiesel policy, currently estimated at 23.7 million tons, with limited overall export demand growth. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is planned to be implemented in the second half of 2026, expected to bring an increment of 2 million tons, but it may be further postponed [3][47] - The global supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is expected to remain loose, and soybean and rapeseed oils still have price advantages, with substitution demand remaining. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has entered the stage of a peace agreement, with supply expected to increase but demand growth slowing. Oil prices are generally weak and fluctuating at low levels, providing limited support to the oil market [3][48] - Overall, in 2026, the global palm oil production and edible consumption will maintain a trend of growth. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy will bring an increase in demand, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. Due to factors such as supply - demand mismatch, policy expectation differences, and geopolitical conflicts, there will be structural market conditions within the year, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 7,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][48] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Market Review - In early 2025, palm oil prices continued to weaken. The failure of Indonesia's expected B40 policy in January, the strong US economic data leading to a stronger US dollar index suppressing the commodity market, and the high - priced palm oil suppressing market demand led to a continuous price decline. After the release of the USDA report in January, the significant downward adjustment of the yield per unit area and the Trump tariff policy boosting US soybean oil consumption demand led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices, causing palm oil prices to stop falling. After the Spring Festival, with domestic low - inventory status continuing, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory, and the pre - Ramadan stocking demand, along with concerns about production due to excessive precipitation in the producing areas and Indonesia's re - emphasis on the upcoming implementation of the B40 policy, palm oil prices rose continuously. From late February to May, palm oil prices fluctuated and declined. In March, the producing areas entered the production - increasing season, the US tariff policy on the world raised concerns about market demand, the sharp decline in crude oil prices drove down the oil sector, and the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy led to the price decline. From June to August, palm oil prices started to rise. The first - stage rise was mainly driven by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, as well as the US biodiesel policy expectation after the passage of the large - scale and beautiful bill. The second - stage rise was mainly due to the positive impact of the July MPOB report, the news that Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy was being gradually implemented and the B50 policy was in the testing and R & D stage. The third - stage rise was mainly because the inventory accumulation in the August MPOB report was less than expected, the preliminary ruling result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseeds was released, the US Environmental Protection Agency's biodiesel policy exemption obligation was less than expected, and US soybean oil prices were strongly boosted. In September, prices fluctuated due to the interweaving of multiple factors. In October, prices started to fall due to the continuous increase in monthly production, the increase in substitution by soybean oil due to its better cost - effectiveness, the weakening of palm oil export demand, the inventory accumulation exceeding expectations, and the supply becoming more relaxed [8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - The MPOB's monthly data shows that in November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The overall impact of the report was bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reducing season. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand is expected to increase, providing good support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process of Malaysian palm oil [19] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is currently at a high level compared to the same period. The official reference price in December 2025 was set at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, lower than that in November. The export tariff rate is 10%, and the export mechanism may be adjusted later to reduce high inventory. About 30% of Malaysia's oil palm trees are over 19 years old, and about 12% are over 25 years old, with an average tree age of about 15 years, approaching the decline period after the peak of yield per unit area, resulting in a slowdown in production capacity growth. The replanting of palm trees requires a 3 - 5 - year sapling growth period, and the current replanting rate is 1% - 2%, lower than the level required to maintain production capacity. Therefore, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to be 20 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025 [20] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Export - According to the latest data from the SPPOMA, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. According to the MPOA, from November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared to the same period of the previous month, with production in different regions all increasing [27][29] - According to the data of shipping survey institutions, from November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared to the same period of the previous month. The export volume data from different institutions showed different degrees of decline [29] 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data from the GAPKI, in September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million tons; the export volume was 2.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27 million tons; the domestic consumption was 2.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons. The inventory in August 2025 was 2.59 million tons [32] - Indonesia's forestry working group composed of military personnel and law enforcement officials is strongly promoting the nationalization process of illegal plantations, having seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations, with a target of reaching 4 million hectares by the end of the year, accounting for 24.5% of the country's oil palm planting area. The USDA estimates the new - year production to be 47.5 million tons, with only a slight year - on - year increase, more relying on the improvement of government management efficiency rather than area expansion. If Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is implemented in the second half of 2026, it is expected to bring a demand increment of about 2 million tons in that year, while squeezing some export demand. If the policy is continuously postponed, part of the demand will be transferred to the export side [33] 3.2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Import - According to the data from the SEA, in October 2025, India's vegetable oil import volume was 1.33 million tons. From November 2024 to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 16.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 tons. Among different oils, the import volume of palm oil decreased year - on - year, the import volume of soybean oil increased year - on - year, and the import volume of sunflower oil decreased year - on - year [35][37] 3.2.5 China's Oil Import - According to the data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in October 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 220,000 tons, the rapeseed oil import volume was 141,000 tons, and the sunflower oil import volume was 32,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume of the three major oils was 4.12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease compared to the previous year [39][40] 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of November 28, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.1975 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 246,200 tons compared to the same period of the previous year. With the approaching of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, domestic stocking demand will increase, and there are more import orders than before. Currently, the domestic inventory growth has slowed down, and it is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. The trading volume is average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the holiday effect will provide some support for prices [42] 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The content is basically the same as the core views, including the price fluctuations in 2025, the production and demand situation in 2026, the situation of related varieties, and the overall market pattern and price forecast [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Current shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, and the basis is 128, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,768, and the basis is 2, indicating a slight spot premium. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 9,000. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, with subsequent supply increase due to entering the production increase season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,975, and the basis is 357, indicating a significant spot premium. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply and Demand Indicators (Graphs) - Supply indicators include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil - mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory,菜籽 inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand indicators include soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy faces opposition from the mining association due to increased production costs, and its implementation time may be postponed with uncertainties. The US biodiesel policy remains unclear, and the policy has cooled recently. International oil prices are running weakly at a low level due to eased geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [4][47] - The October MPOB report shows that the inventory increased more than expected due to a significant decline in domestic consumption in Malaysia. High - frequency data in October indicates that production maintains an upward trend, and export demand shows signs of weakening. The ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons. Indonesia's September production was remarkable, with an expected annual production increase of 10%, and the origin quotes are generally lowered, with supply becoming more relaxed. India's October palm oil imports declined, verifying the weakening export demand at the origin, but there is still potential rigid import demand. There were many palm oil purchases for the October - November shipping period. Currently, domestic inventory is at a low level, and with more arrivals later, inventory is expected to increase, and recent transactions have increased [4][47] - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a US dollar liquidity crisis, and the US dollar index is oscillating strongly. If the shutdown ends, attention should be paid to the guidance of economic data such as employment on the interest - rate cut path. The high - level Sino - US meeting at the end of October sent a positive signal to stabilize the global economy. Fundamentally, the expectation of loose supply and demand is strengthened, and oils and fats continue to run weakly. Waiting for the November MPOB report to be released. From November to March of the next year, the origin enters the production - reduction season, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. As the bearish sentiment of the biodiesel policy is gradually digested, the Indonesian B50 theme may still be hyped, which may support the market. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term (November), after the price stops falling and stabilizes, it will enter a low - level oscillation [4][48] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - Since October, the oils and fats sector has continued to weaken after a post - holiday high opening. In the domestic market, at the end of October, the palm oil 01 contract fell 464 to close at 8828 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.03%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 12 to close at 8128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.15%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 622 to close at 9422 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.19%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 170 to close at 4205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.89%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.82 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 1.66%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 34 to close at 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, a rise of 5.63%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 360 to 8700 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.97%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 20 to 8320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.24%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 500 to 9750 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.88% [9] - After the National Day in October, palm oil opened high and then continued to weaken. The high opening was due to the continuous rise of the foreign market during the holiday and the post - holiday make - up increase. The MPOB report released in October showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased more than the market expected, mainly because domestic consumption declined significantly. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production maintained an upward trend, and export volume showed a weakening trend. It was expected that the inventory at the end of October would increase significantly, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the price. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10%, and the September production was remarkable. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy was opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as capital constraints, the implementation time of B50 originally planned for 2026 will be postponed, and the hype sentiment of the theme has cooled. Coupled with the weak oscillation of international oil prices and the weak sentiment in the commodity market in October, palm oil oscillated weakly [10] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - Malaysia's September palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the ending inventory at the end of September increased to 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%; domestic consumption was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.53%. The inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the report was generally neutral to bearish [21] 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.50% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with production in the Malay Peninsula increasing by 4.54%, Sabah by 21.99%, Sarawak by 16.69%, and Borneo by 20.45% [24] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.19% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% month - on - month increase. According to SGS data, it was estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase compared with the same period last month [24] 2.3 Indonesia Situation - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.54 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the production was 4.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.16 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 39.04 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the exports were 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 22.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01 million tons [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the consumption was 2.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 16.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.54 million tons, compared with 2.57 million tons last month and 2.45 million tons in the same period last year [30] 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.605 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons in August and 1.06 million tons in September 2024. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 550,000 tons [33] - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports were 830,000 tons, compared with 991,000 tons last month and 527,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 503,000 tons, compared with 368,000 tons last month and 384,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 272,000 tons, compared with 257,000 tons last month and 153,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 650,000 tons [34] 2.5 China's Oil Imports - In September 2025, China's palm oil imports were 150,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons last month and 220,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 157,000 tons, compared with 138,000 tons last month and 146,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.604 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 294,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 38,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons last month and 104,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 375,000 tons, compared with 933,000 tons in the same period last year [39] - In September 2025, the total imports of the above three major oils were 345,000 tons, compared with 498,000 tons in August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils were 3.729 million tons, compared with 4.313 million tons in the same period last year [39][42] 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons compared with the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons compared with the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 135,900 tons compared with the same period last year [44] 3. Summary and Outlook - The content is consistent with the core views, including the situation of biodiesel policies, production and demand, and macro - aspects, and the outlook for palm oil prices in the short and medium - to - long term [47][48]