热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，CBOT大豆收低，自一周高点回落。美国农业部网站消息，民间出口商向中国出口销售33.6万吨 大豆，一度提振盘面涨至一周高点。但市场担忧南美丰产压力，盘面最终回落。市场等待下周二发布的 美国农业部公布的供需报告。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。商品市场回暖，大豆进口成本走高，均提振蛋 白粕价格。近月合约涨幅超过远月合约。本周油厂压榨量预计小幅恢复，现货供应压力再次增加，下游 谨慎采购中，滚动操作，预计本周豆粕库存或再次攀升。供需报告前，市场缺乏指引，豆粕上下空间均 有限，区间震荡思路不变。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周二，BMD棕榈油因马币走强下跌。但周边市场走强限制了跌幅。市场等待下周的MPOB报告结果。 调查显示，预计马棕油12月库存攀升至近七年来最高水平。经销商表示，印度12月棕榈油进口量降至8 个月低点。现货市场上，马棕油跌幅超过印尼棕榈油。国内方面，市场氛围偏暖，商品普遍上涨，油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：目前美豆出口疲软、巴西丰产压力仍存，市场聚焦下周一美农报告指引方向。国内豆粕库存 113.5 万吨，周比降 3.52%，节后贸易商与饲料厂补货带动成交放量。当前美豆走高与巴西升贴水小幅上移， 抵消了人民币升值带来的成本压力，进口成本支撑有所增强，但上方阻力仍存。在市场压力尚未缓解前， 豆类期价反弹空间受限，反弹持续性较差，短期面临反复，整体低位震荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前 ...

证券代码：839979 每日观点 2026-01-06投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8254，基差398，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定 ...

棕榈油年报 2025 年 12 月 12 日 生柴政策存变数 棕榈油宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 2025年1-11月棕榈油价格加权指数处于涨跌，再次涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, and the short - term volatility of precious metals will increase. Silver is oscillating upward, but beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut is realized [1] - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable, with weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - Coking coal is greatly affected by supply disturbances. The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not obvious recently. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term steel price may oscillate, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4] - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - The national hog price is mainly stable. It is expected to oscillate within a range, and wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - Palm oil may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the MPOB report's production - cut expectation [6] - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to relevant policies and import news [6][7] - The long - term treasury bond oscillates downward, but the downside is limited [7] - Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] - Methanol is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term under the background of high inventory, stable supply and weak demand [8] - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the short term due to increased supply, rising inventory and weak downstream demand [9] - Copper will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] - Crude oil is under pressure from supply - demand surplus, and should be treated with a weak - oscillation mindset [10] - PTA may rise after a decline, but be cautious when chasing high prices [11] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate weakly due to insufficient demand [12] 3. Summaries According to Different Commodities Precious Metals - **Silver**: The Fed may cut interest rates tonight. Silver is oscillating upward, and beware of short - term reverse fluctuations after the rate cut [1] - **Gold**: The dot plot of Fed officials and the future Fed chairperson are the keys to the medium - and long - term trend. Gold has insufficient upward momentum and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price is 1258 yuan/ton, with a weak price recently. The supply - demand is stable, but the high inventory is difficult to resolve. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2] - **Methanol**: The production in the northwest is decreasing, the price in the Jiangsu market is falling, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is falling, the supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the downstream is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - **PTA**: The polyester inventory is low, the load is expected to be stable, but the demand is expected to weaken. PTA may rise after a decline, and be cautious when chasing high prices [11] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The global supply is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus pressures the price. It is expected to oscillate weakly [10] Metals - **Coking Coal**: The downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, with limited upward and downward space [4] - **Steel (Rebar)**: The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price may oscillate, but the upside is limited [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [5] - **Copper**: It will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The medium - and long - term supply is tight, limiting the price correction space [9][10] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The production in Malaysia may decline slightly in November, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic market price is falling, the demand is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] - **Hog**: The price is mainly stable, expected to oscillate within a range. Wait for short - selling opportunities [5] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material is resistant to price drops, but the demand is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly [12]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-12-08投资咨询部 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8394，基差128，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy faces opposition from the mining association due to increased production costs, and its implementation time may be postponed with uncertainties. The US biodiesel policy remains unclear, and the policy has cooled recently. International oil prices are running weakly at a low level due to eased geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production increase expectations [4][47] - The October MPOB report shows that the inventory increased more than expected due to a significant decline in domestic consumption in Malaysia. High - frequency data in October indicates that production maintains an upward trend, and export demand shows signs of weakening. The ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons. Indonesia's September production was remarkable, with an expected annual production increase of 10%, and the origin quotes are generally lowered, with supply becoming more relaxed. India's October palm oil imports declined, verifying the weakening export demand at the origin, but there is still potential rigid import demand. There were many palm oil purchases for the October - November shipping period. Currently, domestic inventory is at a low level, and with more arrivals later, inventory is expected to increase, and recent transactions have increased [4][47] - The ongoing US government shutdown has led to a US dollar liquidity crisis, and the US dollar index is oscillating strongly. If the shutdown ends, attention should be paid to the guidance of economic data such as employment on the interest - rate cut path. The high - level Sino - US meeting at the end of October sent a positive signal to stabilize the global economy. Fundamentally, the expectation of loose supply and demand is strengthened, and oils and fats continue to run weakly. Waiting for the November MPOB report to be released. From November to March of the next year, the origin enters the production - reduction season, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. As the bearish sentiment of the biodiesel policy is gradually digested, the Indonesian B50 theme may still be hyped, which may support the market. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate weakly in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term (November), after the price stops falling and stabilizes, it will enter a low - level oscillation [4][48] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - Since October, the oils and fats sector has continued to weaken after a post - holiday high opening. In the domestic market, at the end of October, the palm oil 01 contract fell 464 to close at 8828 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.03%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 12 to close at 8128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.15%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 622 to close at 9422 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.19%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 170 to close at 4205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.89%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.82 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 1.66%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 34 to close at 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, a rise of 5.63%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 360 to 8700 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.97%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong rose 20 to 8320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.24%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 500 to 9750 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.88% [9] - After the National Day in October, palm oil opened high and then continued to weaken. The high opening was due to the continuous rise of the foreign market during the holiday and the post - holiday make - up increase. The MPOB report released in October showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased more than the market expected, mainly because domestic consumption declined significantly. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production maintained an upward trend, and export volume showed a weakening trend. It was expected that the inventory at the end of October would increase significantly, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the price. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10%, and the September production was remarkable. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy was opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as capital constraints, the implementation time of B50 originally planned for 2026 will be postponed, and the hype sentiment of the theme has cooled. Coupled with the weak oscillation of international oil prices and the weak sentiment in the commodity market in October, palm oil oscillated weakly [10] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - Malaysia's September palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%; imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.95%; the ending inventory at the end of September increased to 2.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%; domestic consumption was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.53%. The inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the report was generally neutral to bearish [21] 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.50% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.20% month - on - month, and production increased by 5.55% month - on - month. From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with production in the Malay Peninsula increasing by 4.54%, Sabah by 21.99%, Sarawak by 16.69%, and Borneo by 20.45% [24] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.19% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,501,945 tons, a 4.31% month - on - month increase. According to SGS data, it was estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,282,036 tons, a 26.54% increase compared with the same period last month [24] 2.3 Indonesia Situation - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.54 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the production was 4.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.16 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's total palm oil production was 39.04 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the exports were 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.09 million tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative palm oil exports were 22.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01 million tons [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's domestic palm oil consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons compared with July. In August 2024, the consumption was 2.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative domestic palm oil consumption was 16.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [30] - In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory was 2.54 million tons, compared with 2.57 million tons last month and 2.45 million tons in the same period last year [30] 2.4 India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In September 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.605 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons in August and 1.06 million tons in September 2024. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative vegetable oil imports were 13.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 550,000 tons [33] - In September 2025, India's palm oil imports were 830,000 tons, compared with 991,000 tons last month and 527,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative palm oil imports were 6.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 503,000 tons, compared with 368,000 tons last month and 384,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million tons [34] - In September 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 272,000 tons, compared with 257,000 tons last month and 153,000 tons in the same period last year. From November 2024 to September 2025, India's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 650,000 tons [34] 2.5 China's Oil Imports - In September 2025, China's palm oil imports were 150,000 tons, compared with 340,000 tons last month and 220,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 157,000 tons, compared with 138,000 tons last month and 146,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.604 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 294,000 tons [39] - In September 2025, China's sunflower oil imports were 38,000 tons, compared with 20,000 tons last month and 104,000 tons in the same period last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sunflower oil imports were 375,000 tons, compared with 933,000 tons in the same period last year [39] - In September 2025, the total imports of the above three major oils were 345,000 tons, compared with 498,000 tons in August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imports of the three major oils were 3.729 million tons, compared with 4.313 million tons in the same period last year [39][42] 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons compared with the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons compared with the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 516,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 135,900 tons compared with the same period last year [44] 3. Summary and Outlook - The content is consistent with the core views, including the situation of biodiesel policies, production and demand, and macro - aspects, and the outlook for palm oil prices in the short and medium - to - long term [47][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 215 to close at 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 358 to close at 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 66 to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 339 to close at 9,422 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.47%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.67 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 5.5 to close at 637.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.87% [4]. - Palm oil broke through support and continued to weaken. High - frequency data showed that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil slowed down in October while production maintained an upward trend. It is expected that the ending inventory at the end of October will accumulate more than expected, supply will become looser, and origin quotes will be lowered. In addition, Indonesia's production data was impressive, and its 2025 production is expected to maintain a large increase. Indonesia's B50 policy has been opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as funding constraints, the implementation time of the biodiesel policy may be postponed [4]. - Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but there were large differences regarding a December rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut declined significantly. The US dollar index fluctuated upwards, and oil prices fluctuated. Fundamentally, the expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil at the end of October has increased. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 has been impressive, supply is becoming looser, and the implementation time of the biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Various contract price changes from October 24 to October 31 are presented. For example, the CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 50.29 to 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell from 4,420 to 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the DCE palm oil contract fell from 9,122 to 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%, etc. There are also data on spot prices and price differences between various oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and export data: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's single - yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in October show different growth rates. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by about 10% to 56 - 57 million tons, and exports are expected to be 30 - 31 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. - Inventory data: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country increased compared to last week and the same period last year. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil in key regions across the country as of the week of October 31, 2025, increased compared to the previous week [10]. Industry News - The US will reduce tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian export products, including palm oil, to below 19%, which is expected to enhance the price competitiveness of Malaysian products in the US market [11]. - As of now in this fiscal year, India's palm oil planting area has reached 52,113 hectares, and the total planting area under the "National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm" since its launch in August 2021 has reached 241,000 hectares [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities aims to strengthen the downstream development of Sabah's palm oil industry, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is Malaysia's largest crude palm oil - producing region, accounting for 22.1% of the country's total crude palm oil production in 2024 [12]. Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, price differences, inventory, and production and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia [14][17][19] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to close at 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to close at 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to close at 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to close at 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 1.4 to close at 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.22% [4][7] - Palm oil oscillated and declined during the week mainly due to the month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production. High - frequency data showed that the month - on - month increase in export demand narrowed, and demand weakened after the Indian Diwali festival. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to build up inventory in October, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Additionally, the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy cooled, and its implementation is expected to be postponed, resulting in limited driving forces. Meanwhile, the US sanctions on Russia led to a sharp rebound in oil prices at a low level, providing some support for oils and fats [4][7] - Macroscopically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, easing trade sentiment; the growth rate of the US core CPI in September slowed down, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year. The US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level. The US sanctions on Russia led to supply concerns, and oil prices rose significantly at a low level on a weekly basis. Fundamentally, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to continue to increase, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Coupled with the cooling of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy theme and the possible postponement of its implementation, the Dalian palm oil oscillated and declined. As negative factors are gradually priced in, attention should be paid to the supply - demand changes in the producing areas after entering the off - season. Recently, the strengthening of oil prices has slowed down the decline of palm oil. It is expected that palm oil will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4][11] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the DCE palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the DCE soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the CZCE rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 250 to 9,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 150 to 8,370 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang decreased by 120 to 10,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From October 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with increases of 4.54% in Peninsular Malaysia, 21.99% in Sabah, 16.69% in Sarawak, and 20.45% in Borneo [8] - Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 were expected to be 1,283,814 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were expected to be 793,571 tons, a 41.75% increase compared to the same period last month [8][9] - Price forecast: MPOC stated that entering 2026, the price of Malaysian crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton. Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen pointed out that Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 is likely to be postponed to 2027 due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil - diesel price spread. It is expected that the price of crude palm oil will hover between 4,300 and 4,500 ringgit/ton by the end of the year [9] - Inventory: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3507 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 298,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 145,000 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 13,300 tons, compared with 11,800 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 1,406 tons, compared with 847 tons in the previous week [10] Industry News - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply for biodiesel production. Implementing B50 will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel per year, compared with 15.6 million kiloliters for B40 [12][13] - It is estimated that global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high, with the total imports of eight major oils expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the increase in imports is the expected increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons, more than twice that of the previous year. The biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil have strong demand. Traditional major exporters such as India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US are expected to reduce their vegetable oil exports by 2.2 million tons. If Indonesia raises the blending requirement to 50%, it will significantly reduce the available palm oil for export, increasing the demand for soybean oil as a substitute [14] - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production. The available supply for export will be 22 million tons or less. The global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as the available export supply of soybean oil in the US and Brazil is expected to decrease significantly from 2.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 41% decrease [15] Relevant Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, import profits, and inventory data of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils [16][18][20][22][24][26][30][32][33][34][38][40][42][44][45][47][48][50][52][56][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the domestic oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly dragged down by the drop in international oil prices. Palm oil showed a wide - range oscillation. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil both increased in the first half of October, with expected subsequent production slowdown and inventory reduction. Indonesia plans to raise export taxes to support the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026, which provides support for prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a restart of Canadian rapeseed imports, making rapeseed oil relatively weak. The continuous shutdown of the US government has suspended data reports, causing a lack of market guidance, but the higher - than - expected soybean crushing demand released by NOPA has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Overall, palm oil is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5][9][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 1.13 to 51.1 cents per pound, an increase of 2.26%. BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4,474 ringgit per ton, a decrease of 1.58%. DCE palm oil contract 01 fell 130 to 9,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.38%. DCE soybean oil contract 01 fell 46 to 8,256 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.55%. CZCE rapeseed oil contract 01 fell 200 to 9,861 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.99%. ICE rapeseed active contract rose 7.6 to 631 Canadian dollars per ton, an increase of 1.22% [5][6][8]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong dropped 210 to 9,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao dropped 10 to 8,520 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu dropped 210 to 10,120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.03% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and demand data: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate by 0.21% month - on - month, and production by 6.86% month - on - month. The export volume data from different institutions showed increases ranging from 12.3% to 49.8% compared with the same period last month [10]. - Policy and inventory: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 238.17 million tons, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory decreasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [11][12][15]. - Consumption data: In India, palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, while soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased by about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [12]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 11,800 tons, and that of palm oil was 847 tons [13]. Industry News - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months, reaching about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year, due to seasonal production decline and increased demand during festivals [14]. - Due to increased production and more working days in October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 2.4 million tons. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate in mid - 2026 and the seasonal low - production period from November to February may keep palm oil prices between 4,000 and 4,500 ringgit per ton. Analysts have raised the price forecast for Malaysian palm oil in 2025 by 130 ringgit to 4,330 ringgit per ton and in 2026 by 100 ringgit to 4,200 ringgit per ton [14][15]. - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel, and the tax - increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major domestic oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the inventory trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [17][18][20].