Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 证券代码：839979 豆油 油脂早报 2025-08-18投资咨询部 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：菜籽油现货9900，基差143，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日菜籽油商业库存65万吨，前值63万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+3.2%。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：菜籽油主力空增。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加 菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影 响 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, after the bearish news of supply recovery was concentrated in the second quarter, there are no effective bearish factors in the fundamentals. When the producing areas enter the production - reduction period with extremely low inventories, buying palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. Further price increases depend on maintaining India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil at 52 cents/pound, and the tightening of Argentine soybean oil supply and the failure of Indonesia's production recovery [5][8]. - For soybean oil, the current drivers are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. If palm oil fails to accumulate inventory in August and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues, there will be opportunities to go long on soybean oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread will show a weakening range - bound trend [7][8]. - For soybean meal, due to the bullish 8 - month USDA report, the futures price center is expected to move up. Future attention should be paid to variables such as US soybean production area weather, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and US soybean exports [17][22]. - For soybean No.1, the spot market is generally weak, but it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. - For corn, the market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot trading is light, and the futures market is temporarily weak, waiting for the new season's supply [40][46]. - For sugar, the international market is in a low - level consolidation phase, and the next step is to focus on the opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The domestic market is in a consolidation period, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures following the trend of raw sugar and trading around the import rhythm [75][107]. - For cotton, the ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound trend. The domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the 01 contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high [109][128]. - For hogs, the spot price oscillates, and the futures price shows a weak oscillation. The near - term futures are in a basis - narrowing market [130][131]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - Last week, the MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% [4]. - This week, the high inventory level in Malaysia from April has been digested. Since June, Indonesia's price indicators have been resilient, and new upward momentum has emerged. The inventory in Malaysia in July did not exceed expectations, driving the price to a three - year high. The price space in the future depends on India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil, and the situation of Argentine soybean oil and Indonesia's production [5]. - China has new ship purchases, and there may be a callback opportunity for the 1 - 5 positive spread, which can be participated in around 200 [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Last week, the USDA report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [4]. - This week, the large number of soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak domestic situation. If the trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international level. Future attention should be paid to the US soybean purchase situation and Sino - US trade issues [7]. Soybean Meal - Last week, US soybean prices rose due to increased export hopes to China and the bullish USDA report. Domestic soybean meal prices followed the rise, with the main m2601 contract rising 1.39% [16][17]. - The main influencing factors include the USDA report, trade war sentiment, and US soybean fundamentals. Next week, the futures price center is expected to move up [17][22]. Soybean No.1 - Last week, the domestic soybean No.1 price oscillated. The national reserve auction continued, the spot was stable, and the demand was weak. The futures price mainly followed the fluctuations of the soybean market. The main a2511 contract fell 0.83% [17][21]. - Next week, it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. Corn - In the spot market last week, the price was basically stable. In the futures market, the price fell due to the lack of new drivers, weak market sentiment, and low new - season planting costs [40][41]. - In the future, CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market is expected to remain weak with a near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern [42][46]. Sugar - In the international market this week, the New York raw sugar price rose, and the net long position of funds increased significantly. The 24/25 crushing season is expected to have a supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increase [73]. - In the domestic market, the spot price rose, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price also increased. The 24/25 season is expected to see continuous production increase and cost reduction, and the 25/26 season may see a decline in the sugar yield in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [74][75]. - The international market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation phase, and the domestic market is in a consolidation period [107]. Cotton - Last week, ICE cotton rose slightly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, but fell in the second half of the week due to concerns about export prospects. Domestic cotton futures rose, with the 01 contract rising more significantly [109]. - The USDA report significantly lowered the US cotton planting area in the 25/26 season, resulting in a decrease in production and ending inventory. The global cotton balance sheet also had corresponding adjustments [114][115]. - ICE cotton is expected to remain range - bound, and domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the 01 contract needing new drivers to break through the previous high [128]. Hogs - This week, the spot price of hogs oscillated. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand increased due to low prices. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [130]. - The futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [131].

Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 9064 yuan/ton, up nearly 3%, surpassing the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1] - However, the night session saw a decline, bringing prices back below 9000 yuan/ton [1] - The strong performance was attributed to rising production costs and the impact of typhoon weather on import arrivals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Expectations for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue increasing in July, projected to reach 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of over 10% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports showed growth in May and June, with biodiesel consumption exceeding 1 million tons per month since February [2] - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy by 2026 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by nearly 3 million tons [2] Group 3: Tariff Changes and Import Trends - The U.S. reduced the tariff rate on Malaysian palm oil from 25% to 19%, while the EU lowered tariffs by 20-40% [3] - India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% in July to 858,000 tons due to previous price increases, but there remains a demand for stocking ahead of the Diwali festival [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic palm oil commercial inventory as of August 1 was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) month-on-month [3] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil rose to 9291.27 yuan/ton, ending a three-day decline [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The palm oil market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to the upcoming MPOB report [4][5] - The 2509 contract may face downward pressure due to ample domestic inventory and supply, while the 2601 contract is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend driven by seasonal demand and biodiesel policies [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 113 to close at 4,175 ringgit/ton, a 2.78% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 210 to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, a 2.48% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 42 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 168 to close at 9,439 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decrease; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.97 to close at 53.57 cents/pound, a 1.78% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 36.1 to close at 683 Canadian dollars/ton, a 5.02% decrease [4][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and closed higher, but there was internal differentiation. Palm oil was the strongest. Although the MPOB report showed that export demand was lower than expected, domestic consumption increased significantly, and inventory continued to rise, which was slightly bearish overall, the export data in July showed a month - on - month increase. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, and there is an expectation of a B50 policy in the future. Coupled with the boost from the recovery of the domestic commodity market, palm oil had a large increase. The improvement of precipitation expectations in the Canadian canola - producing areas and the expectation of EU production recovery led to a decline in canola, dragging down domestic rapeseed oil. Although US soybean oil was supported by the expectation of the biodiesel policy, the decline of US soybeans during the week dragged it down [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US unilaterally issued a tax - levying letter, with a compressed negotiation time, and the process is expected to be slow. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's CPI data. Fundamentally, although the June MPOB report was slightly bearish, the recent strengthening of oil prices, the good export data in July, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy increasing biodiesel consumption, and the expectation of B50 implementation next year supported the strong performance of palm oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the trading data of various contracts from July 4th to July 11th, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the futures spreads between soybean and palm oil, rapeseed and palm oil, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector showed internal differentiation. Palm oil was strong due to factors such as export data improvement, policy support, and market sentiment. Rapeseed oil was weak because of the expected improvement in Canadian canola production and EU production recovery. US soybean oil was affected by the decline of US soybeans despite biodiesel policy expectations [7]. - The June MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.031 million tons, a 2.41% month - on - month increase; production was 1.692 million tons, a 4.48% month - on - month decrease; export volume was 1.259 million tons, a 10.52% month - on - month decrease; and consumption was 455,000 tons, a 43.79% month - on - month increase [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 10, 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production decreased by 35.28%. Different shipping survey agencies had different data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10, 2025, with ITS showing a 5.32% increase, AmSpec showing an 11.95% increase, and SGS showing a 28.14% decrease [7][8]. - As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.254 million tons, an increase of 34,400 tons from the previous week and 371,700 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 1,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 535,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 62,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 699,600 tons, a decrease of 27,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 308,600 tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 12,920 tons, compared with 6,440 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 370 tons, compared with 486 tons in the previous week [8]. Industry News - An Indian agricultural minister called on the central government to modify the palm oil import policy, increase the import tariff to 44%, and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic oil palm farmers [10]. - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation Industries said that the demand for Malaysian palm oil products in industrial applications, especially in food processing in sub - Saharan Africa, is increasing. Exports to North Africa increased by 63.5% in 2024, and exports to sub - Saharan Africa increased by 26% year - on - year in the first five months of 2025 [10]. - BMI expects that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons, but industrial demand may slow down due to factors such as the slow progress of biodiesel targets and stricter restrictions on waste cooking oil trade [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils [12 - 47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **菜粕**: The current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Weekend rainfall in western Canada and expected heavy rainfall this week have alleviated the previous drought. In the US, the soybean good - rate is relatively high and the domestic soybean supply is increasing, which suppresses the meal market. Domestically, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is rising, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news. The rapeseed meal closed up in a volatile manner today and may maintain volatility in the short term [2] - **菜油**: Internationally, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease, and international biodiesel policies support the palm oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil closed down with reduced positions, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9510 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 704.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5079 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 60 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 273 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil were 15732 lots, down 2370 lots; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal were - 11828 lots, up 2352 lots. The positions of the main contracts of rapeseed oil were 281867 lots, down 712 lots; the positions of the main contracts of rapeseed meal were 567429 lots, down 12874 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3021, up 301; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 15663, down 136 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2480 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5041.46 yuan/ton, up 52.97 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.77, unchanged [2] - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1080 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - **Imports and Processing**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 155 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2] - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2] - **Consumption**: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.25%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.34%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 17%, up 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 17.01%, up 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.54%, up 0.4 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal and other related data were not fully provided [2] 3.7 Industry News - On July 8, ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, with the most active November contract up 7.30 Canadian dollars to 704.10 Canadian dollars/ton [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the same period last year [2] - The average forecast of analysts before the MPOB report was that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in June would drop to 1.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% from May [2]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil prices have surged above the 4000 mark due to increased exports and reduced production, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend ahead of the MPOB report [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in palm oil prices is attributed to a rise in exports, indicating strong demand in the market [1] - A decrease in palm oil production has contributed to the tightening supply, further supporting price increases [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the upward trend in palm oil prices may continue leading up to the release of the MPOB report, which could provide further insights into supply and demand dynamics [1]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-27投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前 马棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：菜籽油现货9650，基差168，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日菜籽油商业库存65万吨，前值63万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+3.2%。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：菜籽油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲 软。国内对加菜加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓 和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].