Core Viewpoint - The "one big beautiful bill" passed in the House on May 22, with a potential Senate vote in June, aims to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, addressing structural issues like income inequality and re-industrialization, while also facing global geopolitical competition [1] Group 1: Legislative Impact - The bill includes tax cuts, spending reductions, an increase in the debt ceiling, and policies related to defense and immigration [1] - A combined version of the bill is expected to be completed by July 4, aligning with Trump's expectations [1] Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The legislation is likely to lead to a substantial increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next ten years [1] - The U.S. may not have the objective conditions to effectively reduce the deficit in the medium to long term due to structural issues [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the increase in the debt ceiling, a wave of U.S. debt issuance is anticipated between July and September [1] - This situation may compel the U.S. to accelerate monetary and financial policy adjustments, such as initiating quantitative easing (QE) and expediting SLR exemptions to provide liquidity to the U.S. debt market [1]

美国财政部长贝森特已向国会预警，如果届时债务上限未得到提高或暂停，美国很可能在8月耗尽举 债能力。短期国债投资者闻风而动，8月到期的国债价格明显走低(其中8月21日到期的债券收益率已 达4.34%)。 不过，华尔街分析师和私人预测机构认为，债务上限的最后期限，即所谓的"X日"，将在8月下旬至10 月中旬之间的某个时间到来。 一旦美国丧失举债能力，持有即将到期国债的投资者将首当其冲——政府将无法发行新债筹集偿债资 金。 共和党目前除税改法案外尚无备选方案来提高债务上限。他们需要通过削减社会保障支出和增加边境 执法资金等立法内容，来说服从未投票支持过提高债务上限的极端保守派通过该法案。如果转向民主 党求援，共和党势必在支出增加等政策让步上付出代价。 点击蓝字，关注我们 随着美国参议院着手对特朗普总统提出的数万亿美元税改与支出计划进行冗长修订，美国财政偿付能 力正面临前所未有的严峻考验。 国会共和党领袖将提高债务上限的条款捆绑在这项标志性经济法案中。这一政治策略虽然加速了优先 立法的进程，但也使避免债务违约的命运完全取决于后续复杂的立法博弈。 该税改法案不仅在参议院面临漫长审议，共和党议员更明确表示将在通过前进行大 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance issued the first 50-year special government bond this year with a weighted average bid rate of 2.1%, which is 19 basis points higher than the low point in February for the same maturity [2] - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced revisions to foreign currency management policies to better support domestic enterprises in efficient financing in international financial markets [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau proposed to strengthen the information disclosure management of asset management products in banking and insurance institutions, aiming to create a unified regulatory framework [3] International News - The U.S. Senate is set to review the Trump tax reform bill, with increasing risks of a debt default as the issue of raising the debt ceiling remains unresolved [4] - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, the highest since January 2023, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5][6] Market Dynamics - The bond market continued its volatile trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.30 basis points to 1.6890% and the 10-year policy bank bond yield falling by 0.40 basis points to 1.7360% [10] - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices down by 0.31% to 0.36% on May 23, reflecting a broader downturn in the equity market [17] Credit Bonds - Several industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1 Yangcheng 01" dropping over 96% and "18 Chuying Agriculture SCP002" falling over 95% [11] - Country Garden announced an extension of the deadline for its major overseas debt restructuring support agreement, with over 70% of bondholders participating [12] Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points to 4.51% [19] - Major European economies also saw a decrease in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down by 7 basis points to 2.57% [22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate is engaged in lengthy revisions of President Trump's multi-trillion dollar tax reform and spending plan, putting unprecedented pressure on the country's fiscal capacity [1] Group 1: Legislative Process - The Republican leadership has tied the debt ceiling increase to this significant economic legislation, which accelerates the legislative process but complicates the avoidance of a debt default [1] - The tax reform bill faces a long review in the Senate, with Republican lawmakers indicating substantial modifications will be made before passage [1] - The House version of the bill narrowly passed, and any revisions sent back to the House may lead to further contention [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - As the potential default deadline approaches, the political standoff may trigger market panic, with Treasury Secretary warning that the U.S. could exhaust its borrowing capacity by August if the debt ceiling is not raised [2] - Prices of short-term Treasury bonds have dropped significantly, with yields on bonds maturing in August reaching 4.34% [2] Group 3: Internal Republican Dynamics - The ability to raise the debt ceiling hinges on whether Republicans can reach a consensus on the tax reform proposal [3] - Senate Republican leaders face challenges in securing the necessary votes, with some senators insisting on rewriting parts of the bill [3] - The process of revising the $4 trillion tax cut proposal is fraught with tension, as some Republicans demand permanent corporate tax cuts while fiscal hawks push for increased spending cuts [3] Group 4: Proposed Modifications - Senators are advocating for various amendments, including increasing child tax credits and imposing taxes on private equity and venture capital [4] - Wisconsin Senator Johnson is prepared to challenge House colleagues from high-tax states regarding state and local tax deductions, which are critical for the bill's passage [5] - Democrats, although excluded from the budget reconciliation process, can still invoke Senate rules to remove non-fiscal provisions from the bill, potentially prolonging the review process [5]

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the downgrade of the US credit rating, which has led to a decline in US stock index futures and a rise in 30-year Treasury yields testing 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5% [1] - There is a debate on whether debt holders will still demand at least a AAA rating for their holdings, with many commentators suggesting that such standards can be adjusted [2] - The primary reason for the downgrade is identified as ongoing fiscal imbalances, with expectations that higher interest rates will exert downward pressure on government spending [4][7] Group 2 - It is noted that Moody's downgrade is seen as lagging behind other rating agencies, which had already downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA years ago [5] - Concerns are raised about the market's defensive positioning, with institutional long positions in bonds and US Treasury futures, amidst a backdrop of expanding structural deficits [7] - The potential impact of the downgrade on the political process regarding raising the debt ceiling is emphasized, as the Treasury is currently using "extraordinary measures" to continue paying bills without exceeding the $36.1 trillion debt limit [7][8] Group 3 - Historical responses of the bond market to previous rating downgrades in 2011 and 2023 are discussed, indicating inconsistent outcomes, with 2011 seeing a rebound and 2023 experiencing a sell-off [8][10] - The trend in bond prices before the downgrades continued post-event, with the current fiscal policies leaning towards expansion potentially leading to a sustained decline in Treasury prices [13]

美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：债务上限将随着宏伟的法案而提高。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周，众议院预算委员会以21:16的投票结果否决了特朗普力推的全面减税法 案"One Big, Beautiful Bill"，虽然后续投下反对票的强硬保守派议员中有四位选择了"弃权"，使得法案 最终以17：16的投票结果通过，但摩根大通认为，这暴露出共和党内部在财政政策优先级和立法时间表 上的深刻分歧。 法案核心内容与争议焦点 摩根大通在一份报告中表示，该法案旨在落实特朗普竞选承诺，核心内容包括： 税收政策：永久降低个人和企业税率，临时取消小费和加班费征税，将州和地方税收(SALT)抵扣上限 从1万美元提高至3万美元(适用于年收入低于40万美元的家庭)，并计划将债务上限提高4万亿美元。 财政紧缩：拟削减约1.5万亿美元开支，主要来自医疗补助(Medicaid)削减，预计未来十年可节省超9000 亿美元，但可能导致2034年至少860万人失去医疗保险。 经济影响：联合税收委员会(JCT)预测，法案未来十年将增加3.7万亿美元联邦债务;税收基金会则认为， 这对长期GDP增长的推动作用仅为0.6%，远低于2017年税改法案的 1.7%。负责任联邦预算委员会 (CRFB)进一步指出，如果法案中的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of U.S. Treasury investors has shifted from optimism regarding trade relations to concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory, particularly following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating, which is expected to lead to an increase in Treasury yields [1][3]. Group 1: Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - The Wells Fargo strategist team predicts that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields will rise by 5 to 10 basis points due to the impact of Moody's downgrade [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield has already reached 5%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [2]. - The bond market is closely monitoring developments in Congress regarding the proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill," which could significantly increase the already high debt level of $36 trillion [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The proposed "Big, Beautiful Bill" could add trillions to the national debt, raising concerns among bond market participants about fiscal responsibility [3]. - Analysts suggest that the downgrade of U.S. debt ratings is not surprising given the ongoing fiscal expansion, which may lead large investors to shift away from U.S. Treasuries to other safe-haven assets [3]. - The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the proposed legislation could increase U.S. debt by approximately $3.3 trillion by 2034, or up to $5.2 trillion if temporary measures are extended [3]. Group 3: Urgency of Debt Ceiling Resolution - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is urging Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling before mid-July, as the government may reach a critical "X date" by August when it can no longer meet its obligations [5]. - Concerns about the debt ceiling are already being reflected in the yields of Treasury securities maturing in August, which are higher than those of securities maturing at other nearby dates [5]. - There is a consensus among Republicans to extend the tax cuts from 2017, but disagreements remain on how to offset the loss in tax revenue through spending cuts, which are limited due to mandatory spending commitments [5].

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（5.12-5.16） 关税博弈阶段性缓和，美国通胀仍在下行 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快构建科技金融体制，持续推进城市更新。5 月 13 日，中国－拉美 和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议在北京举行，同日，中国和巴西发 布关于强化携手构建中巴命运共同体的联合声明，未来我国自巴西进口有望持 续增加，中国企业向巴西出海投资的步伐也有望加快；14 日，科技部联合中 国人民银行等七部门发布《加快构建科技金融体制 力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项具体措施，推动金融资源精准投向科技创新 领域；同日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕经济 形势、稳就业稳经济政策落实等议题，系统回应民营企业关切，释放了强化政 策执行、法治保障和战略引导的积极信号；15 日，中办、国办印发《关于持 续推进城市更新行动的意见》，系统部署八大任务与六大支撑保障措施，城市 更新改造后续或将获得更多财政和融资等方面的支持。 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声 ...

Fundamental Analysis - U.S. officials stated they will not seek a devaluation of the dollar during trade negotiations, leading to a rapid rebound in the dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is the only member of the Trump administration's economic team handling these issues, and discussions on currency policy can only occur in his presence [1] - The House Republican leaders have introduced a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is expected to be voted on before Memorial Day and aims to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to allow for future budget execution [1] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have seen a significant decline from a high of 3435.0 to a low of 3168.0, marking a drop of nearly $267, indicating a strong bearish trend [4] - The moving averages indicate a bearish arrangement, with the 60-period moving average crossing below the 100-period moving average [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short at around 3208.0 with a stop loss at 3216.0 and targets set at 3185.0 and 3168.0 [5] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have shown a bullish trend from a low of 31.65 but have faced resistance at 33.68, leading to a recent decline to 32.07 [8] - The moving averages are flattening, but the 60-period moving average is turning down, indicating a weak bearish trend [8] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting at around 32.53 with a stop loss at 32.73 and targets at 32.10 and 31.90 [9] Economic Events - A series of economic indicators are scheduled for release, including the UK's GDP and trade balance, Eurozone GDP and industrial output, and U.S. retail sales and PPI [10]