Core Views - The report highlights that increased consumer subsidy policies across various regions are expected to stimulate market vitality and promote sustained terminal demand recovery [2][67] - The 618 shopping festival saw a 15% year-on-year increase in total e-commerce sales, indicating a shift towards a "long cycle + strong wave" promotional model [2][79] - Despite a temporary easing of global trade tensions, the textile manufacturing industry may still face impacts from potential future tariff escalations [2][99] Market Review - As of June 20, 2025, the textile and apparel industry has seen a slight increase of 0.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.36 percentage points [9] - The textile manufacturing sub-industry has decreased by 8.41%, while the accessories sub-industry has surged by 23.16%, significantly outperforming the market [10][9] Industry Overview - The report notes that consumer confidence has stabilized, with per capita GDP reaching 95,700 yuan in 2024, and a GDP growth rate of 5.0% [31][28] - Retail sales in May 2025 showed a significant increase, with total retail sales reaching 4,132.6 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [35] Mid-term Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer subsidy policies and the gradual recovery of terminal demand, particularly in the brand apparel and home textile sectors [71][67] - Leading companies in the home textile sector, such as Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile, are expected to benefit from ongoing subsidy policies [72] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Chao Hong Ji, Huali Group, Xingye Technology, Mercury Home Textile, Luolai Life, Semir Apparel, and Baoxiniang, focusing on companies with strong brand and product capabilities [2] Company Performance - In Q1 2025, the textile manufacturing sub-industry reported a revenue increase of 0.73% and a net profit increase of 11.38% [57] - Key companies like Chao Hong Ji and Huali Group have shown significant stock price increases of 151.80% and 12.34% respectively [16][66] Global Trade Dynamics - The report indicates that while the recent tariff conflicts have eased, the textile manufacturing industry remains vulnerable to future trade tensions [99] - Companies with high export ratios, such as Huali Group and Bailong Oriental, have established overseas production capacities to mitigate tariff impacts [99][102]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical disturbances and ongoing tariff risks on short-term gold trading, emphasizing the importance of order flow analysis for entry signals [1] Group 1: Geopolitical and Tariff Risks - Geopolitical disturbances are influencing market dynamics, creating uncertainty in gold prices [1] - Tariff risks remain a concern, potentially affecting trade and investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Trading Insights - Real-time analysis of gold order flow is being conducted to identify potential entry signals for traders [1] - The involvement of experts, referred to as "阿汤哥" and "顺姐," indicates a focus on providing actionable insights for market participants [1]

罗素投资：美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变 金十数据6月16日讯，罗素投资的分析师Paul Eitelman在一份报告中指出，鉴于关税及地缘政治风险的 影响，美联储可能在整个夏季维持利率不变。这位全球首席投资策略师称："美联储主席鲍威尔可能会 持续警惕关税及中东新兴冲突带来的风险。"他表示，美联储认为关税会对经济构成下行风险，但这种 疲软尚未在数据中显现，同时通胀也保持稳定。Eitelman称："我们预计今年年底前会有一次，或许两 次降息。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite recent fluctuations in exchange rates, if liquidity in Hong Kong remains ample, the USD/HKD exchange rate is expected to hover near the upper limit in the short term, with forecasts for Q3 2025 to Q2 2026 being 7.84, 7.82, 7.80, and 7.80 respectively [1] - Factors such as monetary policy considerations and the reallocation of assets away from the US are seen as bearish for the dollar, with the former expected to gradually take precedence over the latter, potentially slowing the pace of dollar depreciation [1] - The bank maintains a downward trend for the dollar index, with the latest forecasts being 98.4 by the end of 2025 and 96.5 by the end of Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - As tariff risks diminish, market focus is expected to shift back to monetary policy, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [2] - The bank anticipates that after a 9-month pause in rate hikes, the Federal Reserve will restart its easing cycle, while other G10 central banks will gradually end their easing policies, which will help narrow the dollar interest rate spread and exert downward pressure on the dollar [2]

在全球经济格局复杂多变、贸易政策风云变幻的背景下，投资市场的不确定性无疑又增添了几分。近 期，汇丰、渣打以及华侨银行等多家外资机构纷纷发布了对三季度投资的展望。 整体来看，三季度的投资市场仍然充满挑战与机遇。多家外资机构在投资策略中提示，需密切关注贸易 政策、地缘政治等因素的变化，采用多元资产和主动策略管理风险，加强投资组合的韧性，在波动中寻 找合适的投资机会。 渣打： 汇丰： 把握亚洲市场结构性机遇 近日，汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正认为，从全球市场来看，过去几个月，美国 贸易关税引发全球多个资产类别波动加剧，但亚洲市场凭借稳健的结构性增长及多元化的本地机遇，整 体表现较好，有望抵销关税带来的部分影响。 在地域配置上，汇丰仍维持地域多元化的投资策略。在亚洲，汇丰看好中国、印度及新加坡等展现出经 济韧性的市场。"中国及亚洲其他地区的专业制造业技术能力集中，不易被取代，中国经济的韧性及结 构性增长机遇依然明显。"匡正表示，与此同时，印度股市虽可能因地缘政治冲突而加剧短期波动，但 或仍将受益于数字化进程及政府对制造业的关注；在不确定的贸易局势中，新加坡所受的影响程度则相 对轻微。 亚洲市场之外， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation with a slight upward bias". The overall view is "oscillation", mainly due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". Uncertainty in tariff prospects and weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, along with a moderately loose monetary policy and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates, lead to strong bottom support for bond futures. However, recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: oscillation with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillation. Core logic: rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: oscillation with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillation; reference view: oscillation. Core logic: bond futures oscillated and retreated after an intraday high yesterday. Uncertainty in tariff prospects, weakening domestic macro - economic indicators, a moderately loose monetary policy, and zero implied interest - rate cut expectations in market interest rates provide strong bottom support for bond futures. Recent net liquidity withdrawal by the central bank has weakened short - term upward momentum. Future market direction depends on policy guidance, and the financial policies at the June 18th Lujiazui Forum can be monitored. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate [5].

美国芝加哥商业交易所（CME）集团CEO Duffy：地缘政治风险超过（美国总统特朗普特朗普挑起的） 关税所构成的风险。 散户（零售）将改变大量的行业，而不仅仅是影响金融服务领域而已。 ...

芝商所CEO：地缘政治风险高于关税带来的风险。 ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价 ——海外札记 20250603 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 ⚫ 20250524-20250531，受到关税缓和、AI 龙头财报驱动，全球市场继续反弹：美国 股市小幅回升，纳指、标普 500 分别收涨 2.01%和 1.88%。周中日本长期主权债拍 卖再度遇冷，市场在等待日银态度，长债收益率下降后回升，但同期美债收益率企 稳回落。商品价格普遍继续回调，天然气价格回落 7.06%，布油收跌 3.35%，黄金 收跌 1.57%。年初至今，美国-非美再平衡趋势仍在延续。德国、香港仍在全球股市 当中领涨。 ⚫ 经济基本面：美国 5 月软指标反弹，4 月投资端下行。5 月美国咨商会消费者信心超 预期改善，由前值 85.7 上升至 98，这期调查多数结果是在 5 月 12 日中美谈判后收 集的，一定程度上印证了 5 月中美关税缓和将会支撑经济短期修复。 ⚫ 耐用品订单环比回落，4 月耐用品订单环比录得-6.3%。此外，剔除波动较大的国防 和飞机后核心资本货物新订单 4 月环比下降 1.3%。企业端数据反映出特朗普的关税 政策对企业未来预 ...