美国芝加哥商业交易所（CME）集团CEO Duffy：地缘政治风险超过（美国总统特朗普特朗普挑起的） 关税所构成的风险。 散户（零售）将改变大量的行业，而不仅仅是影响金融服务领域而已。 ...

芝商所CEO：地缘政治风险高于关税带来的风险。 ...

宏观经济 | 专题报告 "TACO"信仰淡化关税风险定价 ——海外札记 20250603 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。 ⚫ 20250524-20250531，受到关税缓和、AI 龙头财报驱动，全球市场继续反弹：美国 股市小幅回升，纳指、标普 500 分别收涨 2.01%和 1.88%。周中日本长期主权债拍 卖再度遇冷，市场在等待日银态度，长债收益率下降后回升，但同期美债收益率企 稳回落。商品价格普遍继续回调，天然气价格回落 7.06%，布油收跌 3.35%，黄金 收跌 1.57%。年初至今，美国-非美再平衡趋势仍在延续。德国、香港仍在全球股市 当中领涨。 ⚫ 经济基本面：美国 5 月软指标反弹，4 月投资端下行。5 月美国咨商会消费者信心超 预期改善，由前值 85.7 上升至 98，这期调查多数结果是在 5 月 12 日中美谈判后收 集的，一定程度上印证了 5 月中美关税缓和将会支撑经济短期修复。 ⚫ 耐用品订单环比回落，4 月耐用品订单环比录得-6.3%。此外，剔除波动较大的国防 和飞机后核心资本货物新订单 4 月环比下降 1.3%。企业端数据反映出特朗普的关税 政策对企业未来预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of treasury bond futures is expected to be a volatile rebound. The main reasons are the rising tariff risk from the US government, which increases market uncertainty and boosts risk - aversion sentiment, and the moderately loose monetary policy that restricts the upward space of market interest rates. Also, there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts due to the weakening of internal macro - economic indicators [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and bullish. The overall view is a volatile rebound, with the core logic being the rising tariff risk and the increasing risk - aversion sentiment [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile and bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a volatile rebound. The core logic is that last week treasury bond futures had a volatile correction but rebounded on Friday. The US government's tariff threats increase market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment. The moderately loose monetary policy restricts the upward space of market interest rates, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts due to the weakening of internal macro - economic indicators in June [4].

智通财经6月2日电，美联储的LOGAN表示，对于所面临的风险，政策处于良好的状态；关税的潜在风 险是失业率和通胀上升。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market risks are primarily stemming from the U.S., particularly due to Trump's erratic policies, which have increased economic friction. The dollar is expected to weaken, and this trend will gain more recognition over time, while U.S. stocks remain high [1][29]. - Recent developments indicate that tariffs are showing signs of improvement, as a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, leading to a significant surge in U.S. stocks [9][10]. - The A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are becoming safe-haven assets, with capital flowing into the Hong Kong market, evidenced by a dramatic drop in Hibor rates from 4 to near 0 [2][25]. Group 2 - The volatility in the market has been heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related shocks, with the VIX index experiencing its fastest rise in history [6][11]. - Despite a slowing fundamental backdrop, liquidity is returning to the Hong Kong market, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may reach new highs in the second half of the year [2][28]. - The dollar's current account deficit has reached unprecedented levels, indicating a likely continued weakening of the dollar, which is shifting from a safe-haven to a risk asset [18][20]. Group 3 - The relationship between A-shares and precious metals like gold and silver has evolved, with A-shares now reflecting safe-haven characteristics, particularly in the context of recent market downturns [21][22]. - The influx of capital into the Hong Kong market is significant, with a notable increase in the monetary base, suggesting a robust liquidity environment that could support further market gains [25][27]. - The market's response to the potential resolution of tariff issues could positively impact inflation expectations, as the worst-case scenarios may already be priced in [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][32] Core Insights - The report highlights that Amer Sports' Q1 performance exceeded both Bloomberg consensus expectations and the company's prior guidance, leading management to raise full-year revenue and EPS guidance. The company experienced double-digit growth across all business lines, channels, and regions, with manageable tariff risks [2][3][32] - In Q1 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year to $1.473 billion, with an adjusted net profit of $148 million, significantly up from $39 million in the same period last year. The gross margin and adjusted operating profit margin reached historical highs [7][9][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an expected EPS of $0.67-0.72, reflecting confidence in the company's performance [27][32] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 23% to $1.473 billion, with a fixed exchange rate growth of 26%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus of 16% and the company's previous guidance of 14-16% [2][7] - The adjusted gross margin increased by 330 basis points to 58.0%, exceeding expectations, driven by favorable channel, geographic, and product mix [9][11] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $299 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.3% [6][9] Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 28% to $664 million, with strong growth in women's and footwear categories [11][14] - Outdoor Performance: Revenue rose by 25% to $502 million, driven by strong DTC channel growth and successful product launches [11][14] - Ball & Racquet Sports: Revenue grew by 12% to $306 million, primarily driven by the Wilson Tennis 360 series [11][14] Regional Performance - Greater China: Revenue increased by 43%, driven by strong performance across all business lines [15] - North America: Revenue grew by 12%, with notable growth in Technical Apparel and Wilson Tennis products [15] - EMEA: Revenue rose by 12%, supported by Technical Apparel and Outdoor Performance [15] Channel Performance - DTC Channel: Revenue increased by 39% to $690 million, accounting for 47% of total revenue [7][15] - Wholesale Channel: Revenue grew by 12%, with a positive turnaround in Salomon's wholesale business [15] Management Guidance - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 15-17%, with an adjusted EPS guidance of $0.67-0.72 [27][32] - For Q2 2025, revenue growth is expected to be between 16-18%, with an adjusted gross margin of 57-58% [31][32]

金十数据5月20日讯，道明证券预计，澳洲联储将在今天的政策会议上降息25个基点，使现金利率降至 3.85%。道明证券指出，最近的通胀和劳动力市场数据与澳洲联储2月份的预测基本相符，为其转向宽 松立场提供了充分的理由。虽然人们的注意力将集中在利率决定上，但道明证券表示，澳洲联储对全球 关税风险的评论将是关键。"我们认为GDP预测有可能被小幅下调，但对CPI预测是否会发生重大变化表 示怀疑。" 道明证券：预计澳洲联储降息25个基点，如何置评关税是关键 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...