"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际，中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日在 北京举行。会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内 市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 近日，中部地区湖北、河南、湖南、江西、山西等地均召开相关会议，深入学习贯彻中央经济 工作会议精神。梳理来看， 激发内需潜力、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合、促进城乡融 合和区域协调发展等方面成为重点，中部省份将力争结合因地制宜的谋划布局，形成更多新增 长点。 围绕贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地的部署中释放出哪些重要信号？ 持续激发内需潜力 记者丨 吴文汐 编辑丨李果 其中，培育服务消费新增长点将成为"十五五"时期的重点，这也与国家层面的导向相契合。 据东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青预计，明年财政促消费资金规模会从今年3000亿上调至5000 亿，支持范围有望从耐用消费品扩大到一般消费品及服务消费，其中服务消费将成为大力提振 消费的重点。 湖北在其"十五五"规划的建议中提出了，扩大服务消费，推动基础型生活服务品质提升，促进 大健康、新文旅、泛娱乐、智能化等改善型生活服务扩量提效；河南提出， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒龙头信号积极，量贩龙头景气扩张 投资建议：1、白酒：坚持内需主导下顺周期白酒估值、基本面有望先后 修复，茅台、五粮液出牌优化渠道与价格，板块底部价值持续凸显，建议 配置：1）供给出清或边际改善：泸州老窖、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、洋河 股份、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等；2）中长期龙头：贵州茅台、 五粮液、山西汾酒等。2、大众品：中央经济工作会议重点定调内需主导， 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，由食品价格转正带动，鸣鸣很忙上市获批，卫 龙盐津重点打造魔芋，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏： 1）高景气或高 成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友 食品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 百润股份、青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽 食品、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润 饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台、普五纷纷出牌，龙头积极、静待改善。临近年底旺季将至， 在白酒需求疲软、供给持续出清、批价仍在承 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 政策蓝图绘就，化工结构性机会浮现 ——基础化工行业周报（20251208-20251214） 要点 政策协同发力稳中求进，内需创新引领经济高质量发展。2025 年中央经济工 作会议于 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，习近平总书记发表重要讲话，会 议肯定了党中央团结带领全国各族人民迎难而上，推动高质量发展取得新成 效，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成。会议明确 2025 年八大重点任务：坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚 持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共 赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动绿 色转型等等。2025 年经济工作以稳中求进为主线，聚焦内需、创新、改革、 开放、民生、风险六大领域，政策协同发力。 深化国有企业改革，持续看好"三桶油"。2025 年中央经济工作会议强调要 制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案，完善民营经济促进法配套法规政 策。此前政府工作报告也指出，24 年我国坚定不移全面深化改革扩大开放， 增强发展内生动力，深化国有企业改革，持续优化国有 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pork price is expected to rise due to limited supply before the New Year, with the average price of live pigs at 11.43 yuan/kg as of December 12, 2025, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.22 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 4.33% [12][13] - The beef market is showing signs of a bullish cycle, with the wholesale price of beef at 66.24 yuan/kg, up 10.22% year-on-year, and calf prices at 32.23 yuan/kg, up 33.68% year-on-year [24] - The pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, leading to a potential increase in the pace of pig culling, while the pet sector is benefiting from domestic brand growth due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [27][31] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The cold wave is boosting pork consumption as the pickled meat season approaches, with limited supply expected before the New Year [12] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered is 129.63 kg, with a decrease in the proportion of smallholder sales [12][13] Weekly Market Performance (Dec 8-12) - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 0.26 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34% and the agricultural index down 0.08% [32] - Leading stocks included *ST Zhengbang (+19.40%), Biological Shares (+17.16%), and Luoniushan (+13.73%) [32][39] Price Tracking (Dec 8-12) - The average price of live pigs was 11.48 yuan/kg, up 2.50% week-on-week, while the price of piglets was 19.04 yuan/kg, down 1.14% [41] - The average price of beef was 66.13 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease [48] Key News (Dec 8-12) - China's soybean imports for the first 11 months of 2025 reached 104 million tons, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, with a price drop of 10.7% [40]

中央经济工作会议提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。作为明年八项工作任务之首，这也意味着 2026年我国经济增长将更多依靠内需发力。 21世纪经济报道记者吴文汐 武汉报道 "十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际，中央经济 工作会议于12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需 主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 近日，中部地区湖北、河南、湖南、江西、山西等地均召开相关会议，深入学习贯彻中央经济工作会议 精神。梳理来看，激发内需潜力、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合、促进城乡融合和区域协调发展等 方面成为重点，中部省份将力争结合因地制宜的谋划布局，形成更多新增长点。 围绕贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地的部署中释放出哪些重要信号？ 持续激发内需潜力 中部地区位居我国经济地理版图中承东启西、连南接北的关键位置，在建设强大的国内市场中具有不可 或缺的重要作用。 在各省近日召开的深入学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神相关会议上，均对扩大内需作出相应部署，例 如，湖北提出，要坚定不移扩大消费和投资，持续激发内需潜力，以新需求引领新供给、以新 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes domestic demand as a priority, with a focus on subsequent consumption policies to stimulate both goods and service consumption [3][15] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, highlighting investment opportunities within the AI industry chain [4][14] - The report indicates that the government will continue to implement policies to boost consumption, including potential extensions of subsidies and consumption vouchers [15] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference outlined eight key points, prioritizing domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market, alongside innovation, reform, and external openness [3][13] - Specific actions include implementing consumption enhancement initiatives and urban-rural income increase plans, as well as optimizing the supply of quality goods and services [3][15] Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 1.9% this week, with specific segments like white goods and small appliances seeing drops of 2.5% and 2.2% respectively [5][16] - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with LME copper increasing by 0.82% and LME aluminum decreasing by 0.03% [5][16] Industry Tracking - The report tracks various segments within the home appliance industry, noting significant sales data and price trends for key brands and products [29][30][34][35] - For instance, brands like Haier and Midea have reported varying sales performance across different product categories, with some experiencing substantial declines [29][30][34] Upstream Tracking - The report includes tracking of raw material prices and shipping trends, which are crucial for understanding cost pressures within the industry [37][40] - It highlights the importance of monitoring these factors as they can significantly impact the profitability of home appliance manufacturers [37][40]

宏观周报 坚持内需主导，政策更加有为 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心结论 中央经济工作会议：坚持内需主导，政策更加有为。12 月 10 日至 11 日中 央经济工作会议召开。会议指出，当前经济发展面临问题和挑战，但长期向 好趋势不变。我们预计 2026 年经济增长目标定在 5%左右。2026 年将实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，增量政策和存量政策协同发力，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。我们预计 2026 年一般预算赤字率维 持 4%左右，广义政府融资规模较 2025 年进一步增加，相对 GDP 比例可能 保持基本稳定；公开市场操作利率和 LPR 下调 10 个 bp 左右。会议对 2026 年经济工作提出八方面主要任务，其中"坚持内需主导"放在 2026 年经济 工作任务首位。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，有助于促进物价回升。此外，会 议还提出稳定房地产市场，加强民生保障，着力稳就业等方面任务。 中观产业跟踪：工业需求平淡，黑色系走弱，焦煤焦炭价格大跌，受下游钢 厂需求下滑、炼焦煤进口增长、反内卷不及预期等因素影响；南华玻璃价格 周跌超 8%。相比之下，美联储降息预期落地，有 ...

围绕风险化解方面，韩文秀表示，今年以来风险化解取得了积极进展。地方政府隐性债务有序置换，保 交房任务全面完成。地方重要金融机构改革化险成效明显，清理拖欠企业账款扎实推进，守住了不发生 系统性风险的底线。 韩文秀谈到，本次中央经济工作会议总结了近年来的工作实践，提出了做好新形势下经济工作的规律性 认识，概括为"五个必须"：必须充分挖掘经济潜能、必须坚持政策支持与改革创新并行、必须做到既放 得活又管得好、必须坚持投资于物与人紧密结合、必须苦练内功应对外部挑战。 2025年12月13日，由中国国际经济交流中心主办的"2025—2026中国经济年会"在北京召开。本届年会主 题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副 主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展和改革委员会副秘书长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 王一鸣，国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱民等嘉宾就中央经济工作会议精神做了全面深入解读。此次年会 由中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼主持。 韩文秀 继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 韩文秀表示，一年来，我国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展，展现出了强大的韧性和活力 ...

| 600573.SH | 惠泉啤酒 | | --- | --- | | 603779.SH | 威龙股份 | | 600696.SH | *ST岩石 | | 000568.SZ | 泸州老窖 | | 603369.SH | 今世缘 | 随着白酒行业进入企业煎熬期中程，不少公司股价开始进入底部区间。本周，Wind白酒指数周跌幅为1.7%，12月以来累计跌幅已超过5%。 个股方面，上周股价就大跌6.2%的古井贡酒，本周再跌6.74%。而"徽酒一哥"连续回调的背后，是市场对其能否率先复苏产生的疑虑。 | 白酒指数 | | | 884705 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 55906.50 | | +240.49 +0.43% | | | SSE 15:00:05 | | Wind概念指数 / @ + | | | 跌 | 5家 平 1家 涨 | | 13家 | | 全额 | | | 150.68亿 | | 成交量 | | | 1.62亿 | | 开盘 | | | 55914.19 ( 0.45%) | | 最高 | | | 56724.66 ( 1.90%) | | 最低 | | | 5 ...

Core Insights - The central theme of the news is the strategic direction for China's economy in 2026, emphasizing the need to navigate complex domestic and international challenges while maintaining long-term growth potential [1][2]. Economic Situation Analysis - The meeting highlighted persistent old issues and new challenges in China's economic development, with deepening external environmental changes and prominent contradictions between strong supply and weak demand [1]. - The overall assessment indicates that despite these challenges, the fundamental conditions and trends supporting long-term economic growth remain unchanged [1]. Key Strategic Directions - The "Five Musts" are introduced as essential principles for economic work in 2026, which align with eight key tasks aimed at stimulating domestic demand and fostering innovation [2][3]. Must 1: Unlock Economic Potential - Emphasizes the importance of activating "incremental space" within the economy to create new opportunities and benefits, particularly through policies that support domestic demand and emerging industries [2]. Must 2: Policy Support and Reform Innovation - Highlights the dual approach of providing market support through subsidies and loans while fostering innovation to enhance product quality and affordability, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and smart home technology [2]. Must 3: Balance Between Flexibility and Regulation - Stresses the need for a dynamic market environment that encourages consumer choice while ensuring regulatory measures to maintain market order and prevent disruptions [2]. Must 4: Investment in Infrastructure and Human Capital - Advocates for increased investment in both physical infrastructure and human development, aiming to enhance living standards and educational equity, thereby boosting overall productivity [3]. Must 5: Strengthening Internal Capabilities - Focuses on the importance of solidifying domestic foundations and enhancing core competencies to effectively respond to external challenges, ensuring resilience in supply chains and industries [3]. Conclusion - The "Five Musts" are interconnected and aim to build confidence, leverage advantages, and address challenges, ultimately ensuring that economic growth benefits all citizens [3].