如果你以为美国总统和央行行长的关系总是客气礼貌、理性克制，至少表面上和气，那么特朗普的行为 总是能翻新你的认知。 尤其是"大而美法案"提出之后，特朗普的施压节奏明显加快。这个法案规模庞大，涉及减税、加关税、 扩投资，财政赤字直接冲破天花板。特朗普需要低利率来配合他的"大计划"：降低政府债务利息从而减 少支出，而且还需要刺激经济表面红火让人民感觉不到福利的削减，顺便为股市再推一把。 但鲍威尔不吃这套。他既不被装修预算吓住，也不被选举节奏绑架。他担心的不是总统的连任难题，而 是1970年代的"历史噩梦"。 7月24日，特朗普罕见现身联邦储备大楼，原本说是视察，结果更像是找茬。他直接呛鲍威尔，指着一 栋楼说翻新要花31亿美元，太离谱了！鲍威尔也不给面子，当场反驳说总统先生你数字错了，是25亿。 两人你一句我一句，仿佛下一秒就要掏出装修发票对账。 华尔街也很紧张，投行都纷纷警告说，一旦美联储被政治干预失去独立性，美元可能贬值、债市会动 荡、投资者信心将严重受损。摩根大通的分析师甚至预测，如果鲍威尔真的被炒掉，10年期美债收益率 可能直接上跳20个基点。 但这场冲突的真正焦点，根本不是大楼预算，而是——利率。 而特朗普 ...

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AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国6月份的职位空缺在前两个月连续跃升后有所下降，但仍徘徊在一个表明劳动力需求总体稳定的水 平。 根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，职位空缺从5月份修正后的771万个减少到744万个，低于市场预 期的750万个。 每个失业工人对应的职位空缺数——美联储官员作为劳动力供需平衡的一个代表指标而密切关注的比率 ——保持在1.1。在2022年的峰值时期，该比率为2比1。 一些经济学家对JOLTS数据的有效性提出了质疑，部分原因是该调查的回复率低且修正幅度大。招聘网 站Indeed一个每日报告的类似指数显示，6月份的职位空缺有所下降，延续了今年以来稳步下降的趋 势。 周二的另一份独立数据显示，随着对更广泛经济和劳动力市场前景的担忧有所缓解，美国7月份的消费 者信心有所增强。 劳动力市场的状况将是本周美联储政策会议的一个主要议题。美联储主席鲍威尔曾将劳动力市场描述 为"稳固"，并以关税对通胀影响的不确定性作为维持利率稳定的理由。 外界普遍预计官员们本周会再次这样做，但一些希望提振正在放缓的劳动力市场的决策者可能会提出异 议。这一点在将于周五公布的7月份非农就业报告 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, focusing on interest rates, government financing, and corporate profitability [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Conditions**: June economic data shows significant divergence in supply and demand, with household income growth lagging behind GDP growth. External demand for exports to the U.S. has sharply declined, indicating persistent insufficient total demand [1][3]. 2. **Government Financing**: It is projected that government financing will decrease by over 2 trillion yuan in the second half of 2025, following a peak in social financing growth in July. This decline in financing is expected to contribute to lower interest rates [1][4]. 3. **Corporate Profitability**: Corporate profit margins are under pressure due to declining total demand and trade tensions, resulting in low investment returns. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, alleviating concerns about policy tightening [1][5]. 4. **Interest Rate Projections**: The current central level for the 10-year government bond yield is 1.5%, with the current yield at 1.7%. Short-term projections suggest that rates may decline further, potentially falling below 1.5% [1][7]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The central bank's operations indicate a stable interest rate level around 1.8% during tight liquidity periods. The reasonable range for current operations is estimated between 1.4% and 1.7% [1][8]. 6. **Asset-Liability Matching**: Banks are achieving a yield of approximately 1.5% on mortgages, while the yields on 10-year and ultra-long government bonds are 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Insurance companies are also adjusting their guaranteed rates below 2%, making long-term bonds attractive [1][9]. 7. **Redemption Pressure**: Current redemption pressure is primarily preventive and not indicative of a trend, similar to the situation in August 2024. The market is not expected to experience significant volatility due to this preventive redemption [2][10]. 8. **Market Outlook**: The third quarter is expected to see increased volatility in funding rates, but the overall range will remain between OMO reductions of 20 basis points and increases of 20 basis points, indicating a more accommodative environment compared to the second quarter [2][11]. Additional Important Content - The notes emphasize the lack of significant counter-cyclical demand policies to address the ongoing economic challenges, which could further impact total demand and interest rates [1][3]. - The analysis suggests that the bond market is not at risk of a trend reversal to bearish conditions, as the fundamental factors driving interest rates downward remain unchanged [3].

美国总统特朗普：在利率问题上与鲍威尔进行了很好的会谈。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets. Key Points on US Rates - **Value at Front-End**: There is a continued belief in value at the front-end of the yield curve, with 1Y1Y OIS rates appearing high on a medium-term basis. The expectation is for the Fed to ease later this year [3][11][16]. - **Treasury Issuance**: A projection of $629 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the TGA following the passage of the OBBBA [3][29]. International Rates - **Tariff Impact**: The announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods has had little market reaction, with a focus on potential negotiations. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold [4][42]. Commodities - **Oil Market Dynamics**: President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs. This could lead to a significant supply shock in oil markets due to the scale of Russian exports and limited OPEC spare capacity [8][95]. - **Copper Tariffs**: The impending 50% US copper tariff could result in a 4% drag on refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although US copper demand only accounts for 6% of global demand [99][101]. Currencies - **USD Outlook**: A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained, with expectations of further weakness due to cyclical and structural factors. Recent data has shown mixed signals, but the overall medium-term view remains bearish [67][63]. - **EUR/USD Forecast**: The EUR/USD is expected to strengthen, with a target of 1.19 for Q3 and 1.22 for the next year, driven by US moderation and currency hedges rebalancing [78][80]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The recommendation is to stay underweight (UW) on EM sovereigns while maintaining a market weight (MW) stance on EM FX, local rates, and corporates. The outlook is cautious due to overvalued EM credit and overbought EM FX markets [8][5]. Additional Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: The Treasury is well-funded through FY25, but a significant funding gap is expected to emerge in FY26, necessitating coupon size increases starting in February 2026 [17][19]. - **Market Reactions**: The muted market reaction to tariff news indicates a focus on potential negotiations rather than immediate impacts [39][42]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various sectors.

Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement to reduce auto import tariffs to 15% and exempt certain goods from punitive tariffs. Additionally, positive progress in U.S.-EU trade talks is expected to lead to a deal with a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [3] - Strong economic data has boosted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000, the lowest in three months, and the composite PMI and services PMI both rising in July, indicating accelerated economic activity. This has led to a stronger dollar index (up 0.3%) and a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.408%, reducing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3] - President Trump's rare visit to the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, which could provide medium to long-term support for gold prices. The market expects the Fed to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated in September [4] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. June durable goods orders, which is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and economic health, likely to impact gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a weakening trend after forming three consecutive bullish candles, with a bearish engulfing pattern observed. The price has broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish outlook [5] - Key support levels to monitor include 3339, the lower boundary of the current upward channel, and 3324, a trendline support formed by previous lows. Resistance is significantly higher at around 3450, making a rebound to this level unlikely in the short term [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a series of bearish candles, with a slight recovery after hitting 3351. Confirmation of the 3351 low is crucial; if the price rebounds above this level, resistance can be identified at 3393/3395 and 3402/3406. A drop below 3351 would lead to a focus on the daily support levels mentioned [6] - The one-hour chart suggests that gold may be in a corrective phase, with potential for a rebound from the recent low at 3351. The structure indicates that if the price breaks above key resistance levels, it could signal a shift in trend direction [7]

2025.07. 24 本文字数：1386，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间7月24日，美国总统特朗普前往华盛顿的美联储总部，视察正在进行中的大楼翻修工程，同 行人员包括数位共和党议员及特朗普政府官员。 尽管特朗普此行官方"冠名"聚焦翻修工程，但被认为带有更强烈的政治意图。他不仅带队参观施工现 场，还当面对鲍威尔表达了对目前美国利率水平的不满。 特朗普强调，"现在没有必要解雇鲍威尔"，但表示将密切关注后续表现。 近20年来首次造访 特朗普此次到访是2006年以来美国总统首次现身美联储总部。彼时，美国时任总统小布什前往出席 前美联储主席伯南克的就职典礼。鉴于对美联储在货币政策独立性上的尊重，美国总统鲜少访问美联 储，以避免被外界视为干预决策。 戴着建筑安全帽的特朗普与鲍威尔并肩而站，特朗普表示，美联储的翻修成本已从 27 亿美元跃升至 31 亿美元。对此，鲍威尔表示"我不知道这件事"。 在现场与媒体简短交流时，他再次表示，"希望看到鲍威尔降息"，并称如果是私人项目，"我早就换 掉了这个超预算的项目经理"。鲍威尔对此未作正面回应，但在场期间多次面无表情，甚至在特朗普 发言时出现摇头动作。 ...

特朗普：我与鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，卓有成效，气氛并不紧张。鲍威尔与参议员斯科特的关系更加紧张。解雇鲍威尔将是一个重大举措但没必要。我心中已有接替鲍威尔的人选，可能有三人，没有对鲍威尔施加压力。 ...

美国总统特朗普：与鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，卓有成效，气氛并不紧张。 ...