Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintains a "mildly restrictive" monetary policy stance, emphasizing that this assessment is based on expectations of continued inflation moderation [1][3] Monetary Policy Outlook - RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted that any policy adjustments must rely on actual data and macroeconomic assessments, indicating that the current policy environment faces "unusual challenges" [3][4] - The RBA decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% during the November meeting, aligning with market expectations, while significantly raising future inflation forecasts [5][6] - The RBA's core inflation rate is projected to remain above the target range of 2%-3% until the second half of 2026, with a peak CPI expected at 3.7% in June 2026 [6] Employment Data Focus - The upcoming employment data is anticipated to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.5% in September to 4.4% in October, with approximately 20,000 new jobs expected [1][2] - Hauser noted that there is no "satisfactory" unemployment rate for the central bank, indicating a complex decision-making environment if unemployment rises while inflation persists [1][3] Consumer Trends - Current consumer data reflects a "gradual, moderate recovery," although there are signs of instability in consumer confidence, which will be monitored for sustainability [2] Economic Conditions - The Australian economy is experiencing a divergence, with strong household consumption and rising property prices supporting demand, while manufacturing has shown signs of contraction and job numbers have declined [9] - The RBA is navigating a complex situation of "overheated demand" alongside "structural weakness," complicating policy formulation [9] Institutional Perspectives - Moody's Analytics has ruled out the possibility of rate cuts in December 2025 and February 2026, emphasizing that the RBA must see convincing evidence of inflation decline before taking action [7] - Capital Economics anticipates that the RBA will maintain a neutral stance on risk assessments and expects two rate cuts in the second half of 2026, contingent on inflation easing [8]

戴利当天早些时候在一篇博客文章中也阐述了对未来货币政策方向的看法。她表示，美联储今年已累计 降息50个基点，但是否需要进一步降息仍需保持"开放心态"，并仔细权衡双方证据。她未明确表示12月 会议的政策倾向。 由于美国政府关门导致统计数据发布中断，美联储官员目前对经济运行的判断受限。即便数据发布恢 复，12月10日的政策会议也将面对信息不足的局面。 在这种背景下，戴利分析称，工资增速降温反映出需求正在降温，属于"负向需求冲击"；而通胀虽然仍 高于目标，但总体受控，并未因进口关税而广泛上升。 她还将当前形势与历史进行比较，指出1970年代的特点是通胀根深蒂固，而1990年代则得益于生产率提 升和美联储的平衡策略。"我们不能忽视1970年代或疫情后的通胀上行，但也不能忽略历史上其他阶 段，"她说，"我们不能为了避免重蹈70年代的覆辙，而牺牲90年代那种增长与就业并存的可能，这只是 用一种错误换另一种错误。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美国经济可能正经历需求下滑，而关税相关的通胀 压力目前仍受控。她警告称，美联储若长时间维持过高利率，可能会对经济造成伤害。 戴利周一在接受采访时表示："如果仔细分 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $4,007.20 per ounce, remaining flat from the previous close of $4,009.80, with prices quickly moving over $4,100, marking a 56% increase since the start of the year [1] - The current price of gold futures is up 0.5% from Friday's close of $3,982.20, with a 50.5% increase compared to one year ago [2][7] - Gold prices have shown a steady upward trend, with a 0.8% increase over the past week, 1.3% over the past month, and 49% over the past year [7] Group 2: Market Influences - Ongoing government shutdowns are expected to negatively impact consumer sentiment, while tariff uncertainties and a weakening dollar are contributing to the rise in gold prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's lack of key economic reports is creating uncertainty, yet the CME Fed Watch tool indicates a 65% chance of rate cuts next month, which may further influence gold prices [1] Group 3: Understanding Gold Pricing - The price of gold can be quoted in various forms, primarily as spot prices and gold futures prices, with spot prices reflecting the current market price for physical gold [4] - The spot price is generally lower than retail prices due to additional markups, which include refining and dealer overhead costs [5] - Gold futures are contracts for future transactions of gold at a specified price, providing liquidity and flexibility compared to physical gold [8]

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and inflation risks, with a focus on the introduction of the XBIT Wallet in the web3 wallet sector as a significant development in digital asset management [1][5]. Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the future of interest rates, with concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures [1] - AI investments are reshaping global capital demand, as noted by Fed officials, indicating a shift in economic dynamics [1] XBIT Wallet Features and Innovations - XBIT Wallet utilizes a "triple key matrix" system for enhanced security, requiring simultaneous access to multiple storage nodes to reconstruct private keys, thus mitigating single-point failure risks [2] - The wallet supports seamless integration with major DeFi protocols, allowing users to trade on platforms like Uniswap and Aave without repeated authorizations [2] - A unique "dynamic key rotation" technology updates encryption parameters every 24 hours to counter quantum computing threats [2] Security and User Experience - The wallet's security features include a cold wallet solution with physical isolation and multi-signature approval, ensuring compliance with traditional financial regulations [3] - XBIT Wallet offers a user-friendly "one-click cross-chain" function, significantly reducing transaction times compared to industry averages [4] - The wallet's security measures, including biometric verification and a multi-layered encryption system, aim to meet high security standards comparable to traditional banking [4][6] Future Outlook - As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy becomes clearer, the synergy between XBIT decentralized exchange and XBIT Wallet is expected to grow, potentially setting a new benchmark in digital asset management [5] - The emphasis on security, transparency, and efficiency in the web3 wallet sector is becoming increasingly critical for institutional investors [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US government shutdown has led to a tightening financial environment, causing global equity markets to mostly decline[4] - The overnight general collateral repurchase rate fluctuated between 4.14% and 4.24%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 3.9% excess reserve rate[4] - Despite global market adjustments, the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Index recorded positive returns, indicating strong investor confidence in Chinese assets[4] Group 2: Fund Flows - As of November 5, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign capital inflows of $20.14 billion and domestic inflows of $68.98 billion[4] - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $6.18 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $26.31 billion[4] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The valuation percentile of the Shanghai Composite Index is at 89.5%, second only to the S&P 500, but still lower than US equities in absolute terms[4] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the CSI 300 increased from 79% to 83%, indicating improved relative performance[4] Group 4: Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6728.80, below the 20-day moving average, with a put-call ratio of 1.19, reflecting increased hedging demand[4] - The implied volatility structure of the CSI 300 options showed a significant decline, indicating cautious sentiment in the market[4] Group 5: Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 66.90%, up from 63.00% the previous week[4] - The US September existing home sales increased by 4.1%, marking five consecutive months of marginal improvement[4]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - To reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, the official interpretation corresponds to a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.7% or a real GDP growth rate of 4.16% in the next 10 years. The lower - bound requirements for the real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are around 4.5% and 4% respectively. The relationship between economic growth and interest rates is positive, but their relative positions are not fixed. Considering inflation, the nominal GDP growth rate in the next 10 years may range from 3% to 6%, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan may range from 1.2% to 2.4%. Based on the neutral interest rate theory, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center is 1.5%, and the low point can be lower. The economy may still be in a weak recovery this quarter, and the bond market is in a favorable position. With the upcoming implementation of the new regulations on fund sales, it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long, and interest rates are expected to hit a new low by the end of the year [2]. - There are two ways to view China's economic growth rate in the next decade: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 and doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), corresponding to a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16% respectively. By back - calculation, the average annual GDP growth rates during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% [2]. - Comparing with overseas countries, interest rates are positively correlated with nominal GDP growth rates, but there is no consistent conclusion on their relative positions and the spread level, which reflects the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. Currently, the quarterly average of China's nominal GDP interest rate minus the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is about 2%, which is slightly higher than the overseas level this year but neutral compared to overseas history. Combining the golden rule and the neutral interest rate theory, China's actual situation is "real GDP growth rate - 4+1" [2]. - Assuming different inflation scenarios (negative, slightly positive, and normal), the nominal GDP growth rate may range from 3% to 6%. From the lower - bound perspective, if the nominal GDP decreases by 1 percentage point, the interest rate decline should be less than 1 percentage point, with the interest rate lows during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. From the upper - bound perspective, considering the relative position between the nominal GDP high point in 2021 and the interest rate, the interest rate high point is about 2.4% [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Potential Growth Rate and Appropriate Interest Rate Level 1.1 Future Growth Rates in the Next Two Five - Year Plans - Referring to the 2035 long - term goal, two assumptions are considered: reaching a per - capita GDP of $20,000 by 2035, with a 3.90% annual compound growth rate of per - capita nominal GDP in the next 10 years; doubling the per - capita GDP compared to 2020 (at 2020 constant prices), with a 4.36% annual compound growth rate of per - capita real GDP. Considering the population decline, the average annual GDP growth rate requirements by 2035 are a nominal growth rate of 3.70% and a real growth rate of 4.16%. The lower - bound requirements for the average annual real GDP growth rate during the 15th and 16th Five - Year Plans are about 4.5% and 4.0% respectively [6][7][8] 1.2 Relationship between Economy and Interest Rates - **Overseas Comparison**: Static analysis shows a significant positive correlation between GDP growth rates and broad - spectrum interest rates. Dynamically, the centers of nominal GDP growth rates and interest rates are not completely consistent. The relative position between interest rates and nominal GDP depends on monetary policy goals and central bank attitudes, reflecting the strength of endogenous demand and the inflation center. There is no unified conclusion on the appropriate spread between nominal GDP growth rates and long - term interest rates. Different periods in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan have different spreads. In China, long - term interest rates are always lower than the nominal GDP level, showing financial repression, and the spread has been compressing in the long - term but fluctuates annually. In the short - term, the spread is positively correlated with the nominal GDP growth rate [12][13][17] - **Theoretical Level**: Based on the "golden rule" of economic growth theory, the long - term interest rate should be slightly lower than or equal to a country's GDP growth rate. Currently, LPR and general loan interest rates are comparable to the GDP growth rate, while the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate is significantly lower. According to the neutral interest rate theory, emerging market countries' neutral interest rates are about 4 percentage points lower than the GDP growth rate, and nominal interest rates need to add 2% inflation expectations. In China, the long - term interest rate is measured by "real GDP growth rate - 3", indicating that the real GDP growth rate may not reflect the potential growth rate or the inflation expectation is about 1%. Assuming a 4.5% real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter, the long - term interest rate center can be estimated at 1.5% [22] 1.3 Impact of Declining Economic Growth on Interest Rates - Considering different inflation scenarios (inflation returning to 1 - 2% or higher, 0 - 1%, and remaining negative), the nominal GDP growth rate will change accordingly, and interest rates will fluctuate with the nominal GDP growth rate. In the most optimistic scenario for the bond market during the 15th Five - Year Plan, if the nominal and real GDP growth rate centers decline by 0.5 percentage points, the long - term bond interest rate decline will be less than 0.5 percentage points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is unlikely to be lower than 1.2%. In the pessimistic scenario, if the nominal GDP rebounds, and assuming a 6% rebound high point, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate high point will be below 2.4%. According to the neutral interest rate theory, if the real GDP growth rate center reaches 4%, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate center can gradually decline to 1% [24][25] 2. Central Bank Bond Purchases and Bond Market Interest Rates - From November 3rd to 7th, the yield of the 10Y active Treasury bond fluctuated upward. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1.88BP to 1.81%, and the 10 - year national development bond yield increased by 2.35BP to 1.95%. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond term spread narrowed by 0.31BP to 40.97BP, while the 1 - year and 10 - year national development bond term spread remained at 33.68BP. Various factors such as central bank reverse - repurchase net withdrawal, bond purchase announcements, stock market fluctuations, and policy rumors affected the bond market during the week [27][28][29] 3. Decline in Wealth Management Product Scale - As of November 2nd, the wealth management product scale was 32.52 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 74.79 million yuan. From October 27th to November 2nd, the new - issue wealth management product scale was 254.44 million yuan. In November, the scale of fixed - income products decreased. By product type, cash - management products decreased by 76 million yuan, fixed - income products decreased by 290 million yuan, and others had different changes. By product risk, low - risk and medium - low - risk products decreased, while medium - risk and medium - high - risk products had small increases. The net - break rate decreased last week. As of November 5th, the 7 - day average annualized yields of money funds and cash - management products were 1.08% and 1.3% respectively [33][34] 4. Decline in Duration and Stable Disagreement Degree - From November 3rd to 7th, the duration of public funds decreased by 0.04 to 2.38 compared to October 31st, with a weekly average of 2.41. The public fund duration disagreement degree on November 7th remained the same as on October 31st at 0.36 [42]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson indicates that, given interest rates have been lowered to near "neutral levels," the Federal Reserve should proceed with caution. He notes that current interest rates still exert "some restrictive" effects on the economy [1]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently at a point where interest rates are close to neutral levels [1] - Jefferson emphasizes the need for caution in monetary policy decisions moving forward [1] - Current interest rates are still having a restrictive impact on the economy [1]

Core Insights - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns about the lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, which may hinder the ability to assess price trends accurately [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is projected to rise slightly to 4.4% in October, marking a potential four-year high, due to a decrease in employment rates among the unemployed and an increase in layoffs [1][2] - Goolsbee noted that while the unemployment and layoff rates are objectively low, there are signs of a slight cooling in the labor market, indicating a gradual rather than sharp slowdown [2] Inflation Concerns - The September inflation rate remains high at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, raising concerns among officials about the timeline for inflation returning to target levels [2] - Core service inflation has increased, with core service prices rising 3.5% year-over-year in September, indicating persistent price pressures even in sectors not directly affected by tariffs [2] Interest Rate Outlook - Goolsbee does not hold a hawkish view on interest rates in the medium term, suggesting that the "stable point" for rates may be significantly lower than current levels, indicating a potential for future rate decreases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicates that the labor market remains generally stable, but shows signs of slight cooling. Concerns about interest rate cuts arise in the absence of inflation data, and the outlook on interest rates is not hawkish in the medium term [1] Group 1 - The labor market is described as overall stable, with slight cooling observed [1] - There is unease regarding interest rate cuts due to the lack of inflation data [1] - The medium-term outlook on interest rates is characterized as not hawkish [1]

UK's main stock indices were little changed on Thursday as sterling steadied near multi-month lows, with traders pausing for breath ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate call. ...