1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US employment market has increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around $3150 - 3250 and $3500 - 3700 respectively; for Shanghai gold, they are around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850 respectively; for London silver, they are around $34 - 38 and $37 - 40 respectively; for Shanghai silver, they are around 8500 - 8700 and 9100 - 9500 respectively [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 781.42, trading volume was 206379.00, open interest was 214105.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 2547.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was 1.72 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 26258.00, open interest was 208048.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9192.00, trading volume was 513898.00, open interest was 371051.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 1157291.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 40.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T + D**: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 270788.00, open interest was - 36146.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 3435.00, trading volume was 176453.00, open interest was 340930.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 38800719.69 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9052.00, trading volume was - 222180.00, open interest was 109684.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 506602108.72 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $3380.05 per ounce, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, iShare Gold ETF holdings were 449.31 tons [1] - **London Silver Spot**: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $38.13 per ounce [1] - **Gold - Silver Price Ratio**: New York futures ratio was 91.56, London spot ratio was 90.37 [1] Important Information - The US Treasury plans to issue a large amount of debt this week, including $1000 billion in four - week Treasury bills, $850 billion in eight - week Treasury bills, $650 billion in 17 - week Treasury bills, $580 billion in three - year Treasury bonds, $420 billion in ten - year Treasury bonds, and $250 billion in 30 - year Treasury bonds. It has hinted that it will rely more on debt issuance to fill the fiscal deficit until at least 2026 [1] - The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $5000 billion in the third quarter to replenish the cash account, which may cause a liquidity shock. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the US consumer - end inflation rates in June. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm payrolls from May to July or far lower - than - expected figures, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce its holdings of £1000 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK June CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The July S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing (Services) PMI was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. Due to the consecutive negative monthly GDP growth rates from April to June, the expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England on August 7 has increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from ¥4000 billion to ¥2000 billion in April 2026. The Japan (Tokyo) June (July) core CPI annual rate was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value), so there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the weakening US employment market increasing the Fed rate - cut expectation and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index - The possibility of Trump firing Powell has decreased, alleviating pressure on the dollar [7] - The U.S. Treasury's TGA financing is accelerating, leading to tightening liquidity which may support the dollar [9] - The dollar index has potential for further rebound, with a first target around 101 [12] Group 2: Euro - The euro is experiencing weakness due to a divergence in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and the Eurozone [19][21] - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has temporarily avoided a large-scale trade dispute, but the 15% tariff still poses risks [21] - The euro's effective exchange rate has reached a level that could negatively impact Eurozone export growth [21][23] Group 3: Pound Sterling - The UK economic surprise index has entered a downward cycle, increasing rate cut expectations and pressuring the pound against the euro [33] - The UK public sector net borrowing in June was £20.7 billion, exceeding expectations [37] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts due to conflicting economic signals [38] Group 4: Japanese Yen - The yen has depreciated significantly, driven by a reduction in long positions [47] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased following a trade agreement with the U.S. [47] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the yen's depreciation expected to continue until a rate hike is confirmed [47]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and raised inflation expectations, but the comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were perceived as not sufficiently hawkish, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen [1][3][4] - Following the central bank meeting, the yen initially strengthened but reversed course after Ueda's remarks, dropping 0.4% to 150.04, marking a new low since April 2 [3][4] - Analysts noted that the central bank's lack of a hawkish stance diminished market expectations for a near-term rate hike, with the probability of a rate increase for the year now at 66%, up from 59% before the US-Japan trade agreement [4][5] Group 2 - The recent US-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff imposed by the US, has complicated the Bank of Japan's policy-making, as Ueda indicated that the agreement would make it easier to assess the impact of tariffs in the coming months [5][6] - Political instability in Japan has further complicated market dynamics, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house, raising concerns about potential increases in government spending [5][6] - The uncertainty surrounding domestic politics has weakened the yen and increased long-term government bond yields, with analysts suggesting that the decision to maintain interest rates was more about disaster control than a directional policy shift [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates while raising inflation expectations, but the comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were perceived as not sufficiently hawkish, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was influenced by an increase in consumer inflation expectations, primarily driven by rising food prices [3][4]. - Market expectations for a rate hike have diminished, with the probability of a rate increase this year now at 66%, up from 59% prior to the US-Japan trade agreement [4]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Following the BOJ's meeting, the yen initially strengthened but then reversed course, dropping 0.4% to 150.04, marking a new low since April 2 [3][4]. - The lack of a hawkish stance from the BOJ has weakened market confidence in the likelihood of a near-term rate hike, contributing to the yen's decline [4]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The recent trade agreement between Japan and the US, which includes a 15% tariff imposed by the US, complicates the BOJ's policy-making process [5]. - Governor Ueda indicated that while the agreement reduces uncertainty regarding future tariff impacts, it does not eliminate the high level of uncertainty surrounding external trade policies [5]. Group 4: Political Stability - Domestic political instability in Japan, particularly following the ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the upper house, has raised concerns about potential increases in government spending [6]. - This political uncertainty has contributed to the yen's weakness and has led to rising yields on ultra-long-term government bonds [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a potential upward revision of inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year due to improved US-Japan trade uncertainties [1][14]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Market pricing indicates an approximately 80% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of the year, with October emerging as a favored time for the next increase [2][9]. - Following the US-Japan trade agreement, expectations for a rate hike have significantly rebounded, with a 65% probability for the October meeting and 80% for December [5][10]. - Despite the increased expectations, some analysts, including Goldman Sachs, caution that the Bank of Japan may adopt a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing negotiations and the absence of urgent inflationary pressures [8][9]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement has notably reduced uncertainties, with the US agreeing to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles, down from a previous 25% [3][4]. - Japan has committed to establishing a fund of up to $550 billion for direct investment in the US as part of the trade deal [3]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its short-term inflation forecast upward, anticipating a core CPI increase from 2.2% to approximately 2.5% for the fiscal year 2025 due to rising food prices [15][16]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the medium-term inflation trajectory is expected to remain stable, with projections indicating a return to below 2% by the fiscal year 2026 [16]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Political uncertainties in Japan are currently pushing up long-term yields, but these premiums are expected to gradually ease as political clarity improves [17][18]. - The 10-year Japanese government bonds remain attractive, with expected holding and rolling yields surpassing capital losses, even with anticipated interest rate hikes [18].

Group 1 - The auction of two-year Japanese government bonds achieved the highest demand level since October last year, indicating a significant increase in investor participation amid rising short-term bond yields [1] - The average bid-to-cover ratio for this auction reached 4.47, higher than last month's 3.90 and the 12-month average of 3.99, reflecting strong demand [1] - The tail price spread narrowed to 0.005, an improvement from the previous auction's 0.012, further indicating robust demand [1] Group 2 - Following the auction, two-year government bond prices rose, leading to a slight decrease in yields by two basis points to 0.82%, contrasting with the overall upward trend in recent short- and long-term bond yields [1] - Market pricing shows that the "risk-neutral yield," which measures future short-term interest rate expectations, has climbed to 0.7%, the highest in nearly four months, aligning with expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] - The probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year has increased from 57% at the beginning of the month to approximately 75% [4] Group 3 - The auction results validate market expectations for monetary policy normalization and reflect investor demand during a rising short-rate cycle [5] - Political uncertainties remain, but the recent trade agreement and clearer expectations for central bank rate hikes are driving the Japanese bond market into a new pricing phase [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest, the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut due to Trump's pressure, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and unresolved geopolitical risks may limit the downside of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Information 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - **Shanghai Futures Gold**: The closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to the previous day and - 1.42 compared to the previous week. The trading volume and open interest also showed corresponding changes, and the inventory (in ten - gram units) increased by 900 from 28857 to 30258 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3371.30 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 3338.50 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 3345.40 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 32.80 compared to the previous day and - 6.90 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3318.50, with a change of 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Silver**: - **Shanghai Futures Silver**: The closing price was 9392.00 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 121.00 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 9386.00 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of 6 compared to the previous day. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in ten - gram units) changed accordingly [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 39.29 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 38.44 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 0.96 compared to the previous day and - 0.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 38.74, with a change of - 0.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Price Ratios and Spreads - **Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio**: The ratios of Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices for gold and silver also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 512.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 68.53 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, with corresponding price changes [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were at 79250 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was at 9867 dollars/ton, with price fluctuations [1]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Shanghai rebar was at 3356 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was at 802.50 yuan/ton, with price changes [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (SHIBOR) for overnight and one - year terms, US 10 - year Treasury nominal and TIPS yields, and inflation - breakeven rates had different values and changes [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index, the central parity rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the euro against the Chinese yuan had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had different price movements [1]. 3.4 Important News - **Trade Agreements**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by 600 billion dollars and purchasing 750 billion dollars of energy products. The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [1]. - **Legislation**: The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies [1]. - **Inflation and Unemployment**: Import tariffs pushed up US consumer - end inflation in June, and the initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, the Bank of England cut the key rate in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan has led to a significant rise in the Japanese stock market and a drop in government bond prices, reflecting investor optimism regarding tariff uncertainties and political leadership changes [1][3][4] - The trade agreement includes a 15% tariff on Japanese cars, which is lower than the previously feared 25%, and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US [1][5][8] - Following the announcement, Japan's benchmark stock indices, including the TOPIX and Nikkei 225, rose by over 3%, with notable gains in the automotive sector, particularly Mazda and Toyota, which saw stock price increases of 18% and over 15% respectively [1][5][6] Group 2 - The rise in bond yields is attributed to increased expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 9.5 basis points to 1.595%, nearing its highest level since 2008 [3][9] - The resignation rumors surrounding Prime Minister Shizo Abe have added to market optimism, as investors believe a leadership change could positively impact Japan's fiscal policy direction [3][6] - The market's focus is expected to shift back to Japan's fiscal outlook, with concerns about potential capital outflows due to the $550 billion investment commitment to the US, which could negatively affect the Japanese economy in the long term [7][9]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a near two-month high of 1.55%, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the economy [2] - The 30-year bond yield rose by 6.5 basis points to 3.111%, while the 20-year yield increased to 2.56% [2] - Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.2% in January, the highest in 19 months, surpassing the Bank of Japan's 2% target [2] Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Japanese government downgraded its economic assessment to "deteriorating" for the first time in five years, signaling potential recession [2] - Factors contributing to the economic downturn include inflation, tariffs, and a significant drop in rice production [3] Group 3: Rice Shortage - Japan is experiencing a rice shortage due to a combination of short-term factors like last summer's heat and long-term policies that reduced rice planting area [3] - Rice production decreased by over 600,000 tons from 2020 to 2023, with 2023's harvest at a historical low of 6.61 million tons [3] Group 4: Political Landscape - The upcoming Senate election on July 20 will focus on key issues such as rising prices and tariff challenges, with the ruling coalition aiming to maintain a majority [4] - Different proposals to address inflation include a one-time cash payment from the ruling coalition and a consumption tax cut from the opposition [4] - The ruling coalition faces challenges in balancing opinions and maintaining support amid rising inflation and economic concerns [4]