Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in domestic liquidity, while overseas fundamentals are expected to rebound from low levels, indicating a mixed outlook for major asset classes [4][24][37] - Commodity prices have generally declined due to weak global demand, with only gold experiencing a slight increase of 0.55% driven by risk aversion stemming from fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [4][9] - The A-share market is under pressure with a notable rotation of hot sectors, while developed markets, particularly the U.S., are performing strongly, nearing new highs due to resilient macro data and strong earnings from companies like NVIDIA [4][9][37] Group 2 - The report recommends increasing exposure to U.S. equities, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors, due to better-than-expected economic growth [5] - It suggests a neutral stance on gold, as growth differentiation supports it, but short-term pressures from declining risk aversion are noted [5] - A cautious outlook is advised for A-shares, as profit expectations remain weak and liquidity improvements may not offset growth and inflation pressures [5][50] Group 3 - The macroeconomic perspective indicates that China's Business Condition Index (BCI) remains above the threshold but shows signs of slowing expansion, with profit expectations deteriorating significantly [24][32] - The liquidity index has shown a continuous improvement, driven by policy signals, although the efficiency of transmission to the real economy remains weak [28] - Inflationary pressures are highlighted, with PPI expectations hitting new lows and CPI showing consecutive months of negative growth, indicating weak consumer demand [32][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes from both macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a generally favorable outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, while highlighting specific trends and valuation metrics for each asset class [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a positive outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, with specific indicators showing varying degrees of influence on asset performance [5][19]. - The analysis employs T-tests to assess the impact of macroeconomic trends on asset returns, indicating significant differences in average returns under different macro conditions [3][4]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates that as of May 31, 2025, bond and gold prices are trending upwards, while equity and industrial product prices are trending downwards [9][10]. - Different methods are used to calculate trend indicators for various asset classes, with historical performance data guiding the selection of the most effective methods [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current equity risk premium (ERP) is at 82.51%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low compared to historical averages [12][13]. - The analysis of funding flow metrics shows that the equity market is experiencing a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.09% in May 2025, with an annualized return of 11.82% since April 2006 [2][20]. - The performance of various asset allocation strategies is tracked, showing that combinations of macro and technical indicators can enhance returns while managing risk [24][25].

大类资产配置·年中展望 - 寻找新灯塔 20250602 摘要 A 股市场正经历从早期经济修复红利到科技变迁的第二阶段演进，未来 一段时间内，将以市值较高的大盘股为基础，并围绕短期科技主题增厚 收益，同时关注大众品消费和成长性消费板块。 美元指数近期在 98 到 100 之间波动，走弱预期增强，但程度可能有限。 美国单边主义和贸易摩擦使得美元信用受损，各国央行增配黄金以减少 美元权重，长期来看美元偏弱但下修幅度有限。 美债利率长期将维持高位，25 年期国债中标利率突破 5%表明需求疲软， 债务问题加剧美元信用贬值。若 10 年期美债收益率突破 4.7%，可能引 发更大抛售，长端利率易涨难跌。 日本债券利率上升通过货币互换协议影响全球金融市场，若日债收益率 持续攀升，将影响美债需求。当前 10 年期日债与美债利差较小，一年 期日元外汇掉期显示市场预期日元升值，可能减少美债套息交易。 亚洲市场货币近期升值，与亚洲寿险业投资行为和美元资产期限错配风 险有关。若美元主导地位减弱，亚洲资本回流可能导致利率波动和资产 扰动，亚洲经济体经常账户余额对资本市场影响重大。 美债市场目前面临哪些挑战？ 美债经过前段时间利率大幅上 ...

Core Viewpoint - 华夏基金 announced an adjustment to the performance benchmark of its 华夏聚恒优选三个月 (FOF) fund, reflecting a trend in the industry where fund performance benchmarks are being modified, although such changes are relatively rare for FOF funds [1][3]. Group 1: Benchmark Adjustment Details - The previous benchmark was "中证800指数收益率×45%+中证港股通综合指数收益率×5%+中债综合指数收益率×50%", which will be changed to "中证偏股型基金指数收益率×12.5%+经汇率调整后的标准普尔500指数收益率×12.5%+上海期货交易所有色金属期货价格指数收益率×3%+大连商品交易所豆粕期货价格指数收益率×3.5%+上海黄金交易所Au99.99现货实盘合约收益率×3.5%+中证纯债债券型基金指数收益率×65%" [2]. - The new benchmark includes six indices instead of three, providing a more balanced and diversified reference compared to the previous structure [2]. Group 2: Industry Context and Trends - The domestic public FOF sector has seen rapid growth since its inception in September 2017, with the number of funds reaching 512 and total assets growing to 1510.79 billion yuan, an increase of 179.29 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - Many FOF funds have previously had simple performance benchmarks, often limited to major stock and bond indices, which may not fully reflect the diversified asset allocation strategies employed by fund managers [3][4]. - Over 100 public fund products have changed their performance benchmarks this year, with multi-asset combination products being the primary focus of these changes [3]. Group 3: Market Evolution and Regulatory Changes - The evolution of the benchmark system is driven by the expansion of the securities market and innovation in financial instruments, with the number of listed companies in A-shares surpassing 5,000 [4][5]. - New regulations emphasize the importance of benchmark transparency and investor protection, requiring institutions to clarify that benchmarks reflect allocation frameworks rather than income commitments [5].

风险因素： 分析维度存在局限性，模型设计存在主观性，历史与预期数据存在偏差，市场一致预期调整， 量化模型局限性。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月26日发布的 波澜又起：特朗普政策再度调整——大类资产配置周度点评（20250525） 王子翌 ， 资格证书编号： S0880523050004 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们维持对日股的战术性低配观 点，维持对国债的战术性超配观点，维持对黄金的战术性标配观点。 我 们维持对日股的战术性低配观点。 日本经济景气度整体尚可，但修复节奏较此前边际减缓。 CPI 与核 心 CPI 同比迅速上期反映其通胀风险偏高，在日本央行逐渐减持日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market has shown significant growth in 2023, with many funds achieving high returns, attracting institutional investors and expanding their market presence [1][6][9]. Group 1: Performance of REITs - As of May 23, 2023, the returns for 华夏大悦城商业REIT and 华安百联消费REIT are approximately 49.21% and 48.90% respectively, with both funds experiencing price increases exceeding 50% compared to their issuance prices [3][4]. - A total of 54 out of 58 listed REITs have generated positive returns this year, with 19 REITs yielding returns between 20% and 40%, and 40 REITs exceeding 10% [6][5]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Institutional Interest - The public REITs market is expanding, with 8 new REITs launched this year and several new projects and expansions in the pipeline [10][9]. - Institutional investors, including insurance companies and brokerages, are increasingly participating in the REITs market, with institutions holding 83% of the total shares in 富国首创水务REIT [9].

Core Viewpoints - The recent LPR reduction and deposit rate cuts are part of a broader monetary easing policy, with limited impact on bank interest margins expected in the short term [3][21][22] - The small-cap stocks are likely to continue outperforming due to a lack of systemic risk in the capital market and improving risk appetite [6][25] - The aerospace sector is expected to benefit from increased military spending and China's growing share in the global arms trade [13] Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The LPR was lowered for the first time this year, with the 1-year rate dropping to 3% and the 5-year rate to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points [3] - Major banks have also reduced deposit rates, with cuts ranging from 5 to 25 basis points, indicating a shift in the monetary policy landscape [3][21] - The impact of these rate cuts on bank net interest margins is expected to be limited, as the trend of deposit rates falling faster than loan rates continues [3][21] Equity Market Insights - Citic Securities highlights that uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies remains a key factor in asset allocation, with a focus on potential shifts towards domestic policies [5] - The Hong Kong stock market is currently lacking catalysts for upward movement, with external uncertainties and insufficient internal momentum [7] - The small-cap stock trend is expected to persist, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and ongoing economic transformation [6] Industry Research - The aerospace and defense sector is poised for growth due to rising global military expenditures and China's technological advancements in military equipment [13] - The U.S. nuclear energy sector has seen a surge following policy changes, which may influence the domestic nuclear power industry positively [14] - A balanced investment approach is recommended, with optimism for AI and high-end manufacturing sectors amid ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations [15] Macro and Fixed Income - The recent deposit rate cuts are not expected to significantly disrupt the funding landscape before 2024, with limited effects on market liquidity anticipated [21] - Short-term interest rate bonds are seen as having strong investment value due to the downward pressure on rates from deposit rate cuts [22] - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset in light of ongoing uncertainties in U.S. policies and potential dollar weakness, suggesting a diversified approach to asset allocation [23]

Core Viewpoint - Public REITs have achieved record high returns this year, with significant interest from institutional investors and a growing number of new listings and projects [1][4][6]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - As of May 23, 2023, both Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT and Huaxia BaiLian Consumption REIT have returns close to 50%, specifically 49.21% and 48.90% respectively [2][4]. - A total of 54 out of 58 listed REITs have generated positive returns this year, with 19 REITs yielding between 20% and 40%, and 40 REITs exceeding 10% [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Due to the significant price increase, both Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT and Huaxia BaiLian Consumption REIT experienced a trading suspension for one hour after their prices deviated from the benchmark price by 50% [2][3]. Group 3: Institutional Interest - The investment value of public REITs has attracted various institutional investors, including insurance companies, brokerages, and wealth management subsidiaries, leading to a diverse ownership structure [6][7]. - For instance, institutional investors hold 83% of the total shares in the FuGuo ChuangShang Water REIT, indicating strong institutional confidence in the asset class [6]. Group 4: Market Expansion - This year, eight new REITs have been listed, including ZhongHang YiShang Warehousing Logistics REIT and HuaXia JinYu Intelligent Manufacturing REIT, with several new projects and expansions in the pipeline [7].

Group 1: Forum Overview - The 12th Fortune Forum was held in Suzhou on May 23, 2025, focusing on fixed income investment strategies in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Over 300 participants from banks, securities firms, insurance, and wealth management gathered to discuss new paths for fixed income investment [1] - The forum featured discussions on macroeconomic outlook, short-term bond strategies, and the "fixed income +" strategy [1] Group 2: Key Insights from Speakers - Zhang Yuhao highlighted that the macroeconomic performance in the first half of 2025 is expected to be good, with GDP growth likely meeting targets, while risks mainly stem from overseas factors [2] - Wu Lvzong emphasized the importance of flexibility and yield exploration in short-term bond investments, suggesting a focus on short-duration credit assets [3][4] - Li Jinliu discussed the need for a flexible duration strategy in the current uncertain market environment, balancing safety and capital gain opportunities [4] - Liu Xingwang proposed an "barbell strategy" for fixed income investments, indicating that traditional strategies may no longer meet investor yield expectations [5][6] - Wang Renzeng noted the rapid development of bond index products, emphasizing their role in optimizing asset allocation and risk diversification [7][8] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The low-interest-rate environment necessitates a shift from single-holding strategies to diversified collaborative strategies in fixed income investments [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced measures to support the development of low-volatility and asset allocation products, which may benefit fixed income and "fixed income +" strategies [8] - As of March 31, 2025, Fortune Fund's bond investment yield over the past 12 years reached 71.87%, indicating strong performance in the industry [8]

- The report provides an overview of the major asset markets, including equities, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange markets[4][9][10][26][27][32][33][39] - The report highlights the performance of various indices in the A-share market, such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others, with their respective percentage changes[9][11][12][13][15] - The report also covers the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, including the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, along with their percentage changes[10][18][19][22] - The report includes the performance of the US stock market, with indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500, along with their percentage changes[10][24][25] - The bond market section discusses the yield changes of various government and corporate bonds, including the yield spread between different maturities[26][27][28][29][30][31] - The commodities market section provides the weekly percentage changes of various commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, aluminum, and others[32][33][34][35][36][37][38] - The foreign exchange market section details the exchange rate changes of major currencies against the Chinese Yuan[39][41][42][43] - The report summarizes the newly established funds for the week, including their types, sizes, and fund managers[44][46] - The report provides an overview of the total number and scale of open-end public funds in China, categorized by different types of funds[47][48][49][50] - The performance of different types of funds over the past week, month, year, and year-to-date is compared, highlighting the best and worst performers[51][52][54][55][56][57][59]