Group 1 - The article presents an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1][8] - The framework aims to diversify macro risks through SAA, set long-term allocation benchmarks for portfolio stability, and use TAA to identify short-term risk-return characteristics for asset adjustments [1][8] - The recommendation for November includes an overweight position in Chinese A/H shares and industrial commodities, with equity allocation at 45%, bonds at 45%, and commodities at 10% [1][2] Group 2 - The outlook for Chinese equities is optimistic, suggesting a 45% allocation with overweight positions in A-shares (8.5%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.5%), while maintaining standard allocations for US (15%), European (5%), and Japanese stocks (5%) [2] - The improvement in Sino-US relations and stable domestic financial conditions are seen as favorable for Chinese assets, with a strong demand for quality assets amid ongoing market reforms [2][12] - The bond allocation is suggested to be neutral at 45%, with standard positions in long-term and short-term government bonds for both China and the US [3] Group 3 - The commodity allocation is viewed as neutral to slightly optimistic, recommending a 10% allocation with standard positions in gold (5%) and industrial commodities (3.75%), while underweighting oil (1.25%) [3] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to experience price increases due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grid modernization, and electric vehicle demand [3][14] Group 4 - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of tracking macroeconomic expectations and their impact on asset pricing, highlighting that deviations from expectations can lead to significant asset price fluctuations [10][15] - The article discusses the significance of macroeconomic cycles in guiding long-term investment strategies, with a focus on the cyclical nature of economic indicators [19][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the macroeconomic themes for 2026 will revolve around economic recovery, rising inflation, and the cessation of monetary easing [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic recovery will determine the direction of asset allocation [1] - Producer Price Index (PPI) and liquidity will dictate the timing of asset allocation [1] - Changes in the risk-return characteristics of assets will inform tactical responses [1] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - Risk assets are expected to maintain a stronger cost-performance ratio compared to safe-haven assets for 2026 [1]

Market Overview - On November 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.35%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.57%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.28%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.92%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.55% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 10 were beauty care (+3.6%), food and beverage (+3.22%), retail (+2.69%), social services (+2.09%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+2.05%). The worst-performing sectors were power equipment (-1.09%), machinery (-0.71%), electronics (-0.51%), telecommunications (-0.5%), and automotive (-0.47%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on November 10 was 2.1944 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.654 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with CPI and PPI showing weak performance. CPI is expected to rise further, while PPI is recovering at an accelerated pace, driven by weather changes and rising lamb prices [5] - The recommended asset allocation for November prioritizes A-shares over US stocks, gold, convertible bonds, domestic bonds, and US bonds [6] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Visual China (000681), which is accelerating its AI strategic transformation through investments in hardware chips, generative AI tools, and global financing [2][11] - The company plans to issue H-shares for listing in Hong Kong by 2026 to enhance its global presence and broaden financing channels to support AI research and overseas market expansion [11]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - Latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.098, UK 4.465, France 3.462, Germany 2.665, Italy 3.431, Spain 3.184, Switzerland 0.100, Greece 3.304, Japan 1.674, Brazil 6.210, China 1.806, South Korea 3.236, Australia 4.4352, New Zealand 4.078 [3] - Latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.563, UK 3.792, Germany 1.987, Japan 0.935, Italy 2.180, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.807, Australia 3.582 [3] - Latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.334, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 17.304, Korean won 1461.450, Thai baht 32.347, Malaysian ringgit 4.177 [3] - Latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.122, off - shore RMB 7.126, RMB central parity rate 7.084, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.977 [3] - Latest major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6728.800, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46987.100, NASDAQ 23004.540, Mexican index 63376.130, UK index 9682.570, France CAC 7950.180, Germany DAX 23569.960, Spanish index 15901.400, Russian index (not provided), Nikkei 50276.370, Hang Seng Index 26241.830, Shanghai Composite Index 3997.556, Taiwan index 27651.410, South Korean index 3953.760, Indian index 8394.590, Thai index 1302.910, Malaysian index 1619.130, Australian index 9031.697, emerging - economy index 1381.630 [3] - Latest credit bond indices: US investment - grade credit bond index 3522.470, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 265.961, emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 289.420, US high - yield credit bond index 2872.890, euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 407.550, emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1789.774 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3997.56, 4678.79, 3038.35, 3208.21, and 7327.91 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.31%, - 0.21%, - 0.51%, and - 0.24% [4] - PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.28, 11.95, 33.38, 27.97, and 19.50 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.03, - 0.08, 0.03, and - 0.13 [4] - Risk premiums of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.52 and 2.46 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.02 and 0.02 [4] - Latest capital flows of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 754.45, - 513.95, (not provided), - 178.25, and - 107.46 respectively, and 5 - day average values are - 420.92, - 289.61, (not provided), - 96.79, and - 5.15 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Latest trading amounts of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext are 19990.53, 5075.74, 1198.48, 4098.44, and 4985.18 respectively, with环比 changes of - 561.95, - 460.68, - 240.86, 62.40, and - 26.53 [5] - Basis and amplitude of IF, IH, and IC are - 19.39, - 0.15, - 97.71 and - 0.41%, - 0.00%, - 1.33% respectively [5] - Closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in Treasury bond futures are 108.45, 105.91, 108.20, 105.87 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.08%, - 0.05%, - 0.07%, - 0.06% [5] - Current capital interest rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3916%, 1.4677%, 1.5840% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00BP, 1.00BP, - 1.00BP [5]

Core Insights - The launch of pension fund Y shares in November 2022 has led to a steady increase in both product quantity and management scale, with over 300 products and a total scale exceeding 15 billion yuan as of Q3 this year [1][2] - The recovery of the equity market in the second half of this year has significantly boosted the performance of several pension fund Y shares, particularly FOF products, which have achieved over 20% returns [2][4] Product and Scale Growth - As of the end of Q3, the total scale of pension fund Y shares has surpassed 15 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 65% since the beginning of the year [2] - FOF and index funds account for 13 billion yuan and over 2 billion yuan of the total scale, respectively [2] - Seven public fund institutions have pension fund Y shares with management scales exceeding 1 billion yuan, with three new additions since the beginning of the year [2] Performance Highlights - The ETF linked to the "Double Innovation" theme index has reported returns between 30% and 65% as of November 7, while other broad-based indices have seen returns exceeding 20% [2] - Specific funds like Guotai Min'an Pension 2040 Y have achieved returns over 28% in the second half of the year, primarily through heavy allocations in precious metals and battery sectors [3] - E Fund Huiyu Active Pension Y has also reported returns above 25%, focusing on both growth and value styles [3] Portfolio Adjustments - FOF fund managers have adjusted their portfolios based on asset cost-effectiveness, increasing allocations to U.S. Treasury and money market funds [4] - The fund managed by Lin Guohai has seen its scale exceed 1.2 billion yuan, with a focus on growth assets and a reduction in volatile growth sectors [4][5] - The fund managed by Xu Liming has maintained a neutral to slightly high equity position while increasing exposure to dollar-denominated bonds [5] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a large-cap value style, with key sectors including finance, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [5] - Short-term adjustments in the technology sector are expected due to profit-taking by institutional investors and a lack of incremental funds [5] - Long-term investment opportunities in the technology sector remain, particularly during market corrections [5]

Core Insights - The Y-share pension funds have seen significant growth in both product numbers and management scale since their launch in November 2022, with over 300 products and a total scale exceeding 15 billion yuan as of Q3 this year [1] - The recovery of the equity market in the second half of the year has led to substantial performance increases for several Y-share pension funds, particularly FOF products, which have adjusted their asset allocations effectively [1][2] Fund Performance and Management - As of Q3, the total scale of Y-share pension funds surpassed 15 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 65% since the beginning of the year, with FOF and index funds accounting for 13 billion yuan and over 2 billion yuan respectively [1] - Notably, seven public fund institutions have pension funds with management scales exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Huaxia Fund leading at over 2 billion yuan [1] - The "Double Innovation" theme index ETFs have shown impressive returns between 30% to 65%, while broader indices like CSI 500 have also exceeded 20% returns [2] Asset Allocation Strategies - FOF fund managers have adjusted their equity holdings based on cost-effectiveness, increasing allocations to U.S. Treasury and money market funds [3] - The Guotai Min'an Pension 2040 fund achieved over 28% returns in the second half of the year, primarily through heavy investments in precious metals and battery sectors [2] - The E Fund Huaiyu Active Pension fund has also reported returns exceeding 25%, focusing on popular index products and actively managed funds [3] Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a large-cap value style, with sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods being favored [4] - The technology sector is expected to face short-term adjustments due to profit-taking by institutional investors and a lack of incremental capital, although it remains a long-term investment focus [4][5]

畅力资产宝晓辉： 中国权益资产仍是配置"必选项" ◎胡尧 记者 马嘉悦 进入四季度，A股市场有所调整，黄金价格也出现了短线回落。接下来，大类资产何处去？权益资产性 价比将如何演变？投资组合应聚焦还是均衡？针对市场关切的问题，上海证券报记者近日专访了宏观策 略私募——畅力资产董事长宝晓辉。在她看来，外部不确定性以及美元走弱趋势或将延续，黄金配置价 值依旧显著。另外，伴随着无风险收益率下行，全球资金正经历重新配置的过程，中国权益资产是组合 中的"必选项"，尤其是成长空间广阔的科技、受益于经济复苏的资源股值得关注。 浸淫资本市场十余年，宝晓辉始终坚持平衡投资体系。谈及四季度，她称，在黄金、权益等资产前期涨 幅显著的背景下，一方面可结合业绩进行股票组合的"高低切换"，另一方面可以固收为底，做好波动的 控制。 黄金与权益机会丰富 "拨开迷雾，明月在望。"在接受记者采访时，宝晓辉如是概括当前大类资产配置的方向。 "四季度以来，市场扰动因素有所增加，尤其是经过前期的强势上涨，权益资产和黄金资产估值都显著 拔高。不管是地缘政治的变化还是资金获利了结的诉求，都让当下的大类资产配置'迷雾重重'。"宝晓 辉坦言。 不过，她认为，短 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[3][5][7] - The content primarily focuses on market performance, fund statistics, and asset class trends without discussing quantitative models or factors[8][9][46] - No formulas, construction processes, or evaluations of quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[10][55][57]