数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/7/31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,946.00 | -170.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | | 5,696.00 | -312.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 603,752.00 | -47460.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | | 406,294.00 | -32084.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -96,908.00 | +23496.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | | -40,380.00 | +7426.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 82.00 | -10.00↓ | ...

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the 5% target, driven by effective domestic demand policies and optimized export structures[3] - The meeting acknowledged the current economic operation as stable with progress, while also recognizing ongoing risks and challenges[4] Policy Direction - The government will maintain a "steady progress" approach, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[4] - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive," with a focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency[4] - Monetary policy will emphasize "appropriate easing," ensuring ample liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and small enterprises[4] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, particularly in service consumption and high-quality infrastructure projects[5] - Policies will be directed towards enhancing service consumption and stimulating private investment, with a focus on quality and effectiveness[5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing stock rather than expanding new supply[8] - The government aims to support urban renewal and the transformation of old neighborhoods, with a target of 1 million units for renovation projects[9][10] Debt Management - There is a commitment to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, with strict controls on new hidden debts and a focus on clearing local financing platforms[5] - The meeting emphasized the need for effective measures to mitigate local government debt pressures while ensuring orderly progress[5] Capital Market Stability - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, reinforcing the positive momentum observed in recent market performance[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].

展望资本市场，徐飞表示，下半年将延续高质量发展基调，"两创板"的改革正在密集落地，进一步增强 资本市场对科技创新和新质生产力发展的制度包容性、适应性，有助于更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能，推 动科技创新和产业创新融合发展。 本报讯(记者李雯珊)中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议。会议认为，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发 展取得新成效。今年上半年我国GDP同比增长5.3%，超过全年目标值，国民经济呈现稳中向好的态 势。关于下半年经济工作，会议强调保持政策连续性稳定性，并强调了增强灵活性预见性，更有效地为 实现经济社会发展目标服务。 徐飞认为，在扩大内需方面，会议强调要有效释放内需潜力，更好地释放内需潜力是当前经济发展的重 点工作之一，预计下半年在扩大商品消费和培育服务消费新增长点方面均会发力。在投资方面，根据此 次会议要求高质量推进"两重"项目建设，预计下半年"两重"项目建设加快或将带动固定资产投资增速稳 中有升。在产业发展方面，预计政策仍将多措并举加快培育新兴支柱产业与孵化未来产业，提升我国产 业的创新含量和在全球产业链中的核心地位，实现产业结构转型升级，增强经济增长新动能。 万联证券股份有限公司(以下简称"万联证券 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's economy is showing steady progress with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target [4][5] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and stable macro policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies to support economic development [4][5] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and high-quality investment in key projects [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates a commitment to technological innovation as a driver for new productive forces, aiming to enhance the core position of China's industries in the global supply chain [4][5] - The governance of market competition is highlighted, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and managing capacity in key industries [5] - The report suggests that the capital market will maintain a positive trend, with reforms aimed at enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [5]

Economic Assessment - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the first half of 2025, stating that "high-quality development has made new progress" and "major economic indicators performed well" [2] - Compared to the April meeting, the phrase "external shocks have increased" was removed, reflecting a more optimistic outlook due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations and resilient exports [2] Macro Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized that "macroeconomic policies should continue to exert force and increase strength as appropriate," indicating a shift from the previous urgency for more aggressive policies [2] - The focus has shifted from "making good use of policies" to "implementing and refining policies," suggesting recognition of the current fiscal and monetary policy effectiveness [2] - The meeting reiterated the importance of "supporting major economic provinces to play a leading role" [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the need to "effectively release domestic demand potential" and proposed "in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption" [2] - A total of 2.49 billion yuan in special treasury bonds has been allocated to support consumption upgrades this year, with 690 million yuan remaining to be distributed in October [2] Industry and Innovation Policies - The focus has shifted from emphasizing new productive forces and technological innovation to "governing disorderly competition among enterprises" and "regulating local investment attraction behavior" [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "employment-first policy orientation," particularly concerning capacity governance and employment issues [2] Risk Prevention - In the real estate sector, the meeting only mentioned "high-quality urban renewal," omitting previous discussions on new real estate development models and market stabilization [2] - The emphasis on "strictly prohibiting new hidden debts" and effectively advancing the cleanup of local financing platforms was reiterated [2]

策略研究 定调偏积极，市场有望在震荡整固中夯实上行 基础 ——7 月中央政治局会议点评 | | | | | | 分析师：费小平（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340518010002） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 年 | 7 | 月 | 日 31 | 电话：0769-22111089 | 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn | | | | | | | 分析师：尹炜祺（SAC | 执业证书编号：S0340522120001） | | | | | | | 电话：0769-22118627 | 邮箱：yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn | 事件： 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员会 第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 点评： ◼ 1、2025年上半年经济增速达5.3%，后续宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 2025年上半年经济增速达5.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on July 30 focused on analyzing the current economic situation and planning economic work for the second half of the year, addressing key issues such as macro policy, internal demand, reform, and risk prevention [1] Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be adjusted appropriately to stimulate economic growth [1] - There is a strong focus on effectively releasing the potential of internal demand to drive economic recovery [1] - The commitment to deepen reforms without hesitation was reiterated, indicating a long-term strategy for economic development [1] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of continuously preventing and resolving risks in key areas, which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [1] - The implications of these discussions for the stock and bond markets were considered, suggesting potential shifts in investor behavior and market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].