各位投资者朋友大家上午好欢迎来到2025年收官的年终的宏观策略谈我们今天关注对26年中国宏观政策的定调 对产业竞争格局和出口的前景还有就是经历了美联储的降息会议和中国的经济工作会议之后现在对于美股欧股和亚洲的股票的资产配置的博弈 今天像往常一样我会来抛砖引玉紧接着我们的首席策略师Laura会讲中美重量级会议之后对全球股市配置的最新看法我的同事郑林会讲刚刚出炉的经济数据对接下来经济工作会议也已经结束了12月到一季度之间几个政策抓手的时间顺序的想法 刚刚公布的数据反映出来的四季度的一些倾向可能让这种前置有了迫切感但这个前置更多的还是投向了基建比如说城市更新地下管网改造绿色转型的储能电网以及一些跟AI算力中心相关的公共开支领域 那么当然到了一年之中的六到九月份之间如果上半年的形势演绎从地产到物价到就业有进一步的情况的出现像刚才我们讲到的形势比人强也可能会追加相当于GDP0.5个点的新增的裁定空间我觉得现在国务院以及决策层是有这方面的灵活性进行相继抉择的 同样我们也考虑到当前整个中国经济打破通缩到足且长但是产业竞争的亮点是不乏的所以我们的亚洲经济学家Derek会来汇报一下我们刚刚出炉的一份深度报告对于中国的产业竞争格 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间运行。宏观上市场认为美联储主席鲍威尔的评论和 政策声明不如预期鹰派，美元走弱，市场关注近期更多的经济数据指引。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月15日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年11月份国民经济运行情况。国家统计局新闻发言 人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在会上表示，今年以来，面对外部环境变化和内部风险 挑战叠加的复杂严峻局面，在党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，积极做强国内大循环，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。从全 年情况看，尽管有困难有压力，但我国经济韧性强，宏观政策支持有力，新动能稳步成长，实现全年预 期目标有较好条件。近期，主要国际组织纷纷上调对中国经济增长预期，也表明国际社会对中国经济发 展的信心。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） ...

Market Overview - US stock market continued its downward trend with technology stocks underperforming, leading to declines in all three major indices [2] - The US dollar remains weak, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.17%, while gold prices show strong performance and oil prices are under pressure [2] - Hong Kong pre-market securities generally declined, indicating a likely lower opening for the market [2] - The mainland Chinese stock market also saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.5% and trading volume decreasing [2] - The overall market sentiment in Hong Kong is cautious, with blue-chip stocks generally declining and expectations for the index to test support at 25,200 points, while resistance is seen at 26,000 points [2] Industry Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for high-quality development and a new development pattern for the upcoming year, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and enhancing policy effectiveness [3] - Key priorities include expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3] - The conference highlighted the importance of maintaining a proactive fiscal policy with a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a focus on managing local fiscal difficulties [3] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on supporting economic stability, reasonable price recovery, and enhancing liquidity [3] - The market anticipates that the economic growth target will remain around 5% for the next year, with no strong measures expected to stimulate the macro economy [3]

11月主要经济指标出炉，供需两端延续放缓态势。分析人士表示，今年经济社会发展目标任务即将顺利完成，明年GDP增速目标或仍在5%左右。着眼于实 现明年经济"开门红"，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望前置发力。 国家统计局周一发布的数据显示，1-11月，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比下降2.6%，降幅比前10个月扩大0.9个百分点，创2020年7月以来新低。11月，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，增速比上月略降0.1个百分点，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，增速比上月放缓1.6个百分点。 总体来看，11月中国经济呈现生产强于需求、外需好于内需的特征。 生产方面，工业增加值保持平稳较快增长，同比增速略有放缓，但环比增速加快0.27个百分点。 智通财经记者 | 张一诺 数据来源：国家统计局 制图：智通财经 "受假期扰动因素消退和外需阶段性回升影响，工业生产环比虽有所加快，但受累于内需修复偏慢、制造业动能不足、公用事业增速回落，工业增加值同比 走弱。"中国民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬在发给智通财经的评论中称。 细分数据来看，新质生产力和出口是工业生产的两大动力来源。其中，11月，高技术工业生产同比增速较上月加 ...

Macro: Supply and Demand Gap Widening - In November, supply growth slightly decreased year-on-year, with industrial added value and service production indices at 4.8% and 4.2% respectively, compared to 4.9% and 4.2% in October [5] - The demand structure showed marginal improvement in export delivery value, while domestic demand growth declined, primarily driven by the decrease in industrial added value growth [5] - Fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the main factor for the overall investment decline [7] Consumer Sector: Consumption Growth Slows - In November, total retail sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023 [6] - The decline in consumption was attributed to weakened support from trade-in programs and high base effects from the previous year, particularly in categories like home appliances (-19.4%) and automotive (-8.3%) [6] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival caused a shift in consumption patterns, pulling forward sales from November, which contributed to the slowdown in retail sales growth [6] Investment: Fixed Asset Investment Decline - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment expanded to 2.6% from January to November, with construction installation projects being the primary contributor [7] - The November fixed asset investment saw a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 1.03%, a slight narrowing from October's 1.51% [7] - The government is expected to push for investment stabilization, with additional funding support anticipated to improve investment data by 2026 [7] Real Estate: Continued Weakness - The real estate market remains weak, with new housing sales area declining by 17.3% year-on-year in November, a slight improvement from October's 18.8% decline [10] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 30.3% in November, indicating a cautious approach from developers amid weak market demand [10] - The overall investment environment remains pressured, with the government emphasizing the need for stabilization measures [10] Financial Sector: Credit Demand Weakness - In November, new social financing increased by 2.5 trillion yuan, but new RMB loans decreased by 390 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand [25][26] - The decline in credit demand is attributed to slow recovery in the real economy and weakened demand in the real estate sector [26] - The government bonds and corporate bonds have been the main contributors to social financing, indicating a reliance on these instruments for economic support [26] Commodity Sector: Demand Needs Boost - In November, domestic crude oil production was 4.3 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while net imports were 12.43 million barrels per day, up 4.8% [15] - The steel sector faced a decline in production, with crude steel output down 10.9% year-on-year in November, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [17] - The copper market showed a year-on-year increase in production by 9.7% in November, but demand remained subdued due to seasonal factors [19]

（原标题：南财早新闻｜证监会最新发声；人民币汇率升至14个月新高） 今日关注 1、12月15日，国家统计局发布11月经济数据。受高基数、房地产市场调整等影响，11月工业、服务 业、消费、投资等数据增速出现波动下行，但是11月出口、服务零售增速有所回升。国家统计局新闻发 言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办发布会上表示，下阶段，要实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。详情>>> 2、近日，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持召开党委（扩大）会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精 神，结合全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署证监会系统贯彻落实举措。会议指出： 宏观经济 1、12月15日，国家统计局发布11月房地产数据，11月70个大中城市房价整体仍在调整，但部分指标有 所改善，上海、沈阳、南京、合肥、重庆、贵阳等8个城市新房价格上涨，上涨城市数量较上月有所增 加。二手房市场继续呈现"以价换量"特征。详情>>> 2、12月15日，工业和信息化部正式公布我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，两款分 ...

12月15日，轮船停泊在河北省唐山港京唐港区集装箱码头进行装卸作业。 刘满仓摄（人民视觉） "11月份，更加积极有为的宏观政策持续显效，全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，着力做强国内大循 环，生产供给持续增长，市场销售继续扩大，货物进出口增长加快，就业物价总体稳定，高质量发展扎 实推进，国民经济延续了稳中有进的发展态势。"12月15日，在国务院新闻办发布会上，国家统计局新 闻发言人付凌晖介绍了今年11月份国民经济运行情况。 生产增势平稳，市场销售扩大 11月份，国民经济运行有哪些亮点和积极变化？ 付凌晖介绍，11月份，生产增势平稳。工业生产稳定增长。规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%， 增速和上月基本持平。产业升级发展带动下，技术含量和附加值较高的装备制造业快速发展。装备制造 业增加值同比增长7.7%，继续快于全部规模以上工业增长，对规模以上工业增加值增长的贡献率达到 59.4%。 市场销售扩大。商品销售持续增长。11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，居民消费品质 提升，部分升级类商品销售较快增长。11月份，限额以上商品零售额中化妆品类和金银珠宝类零售额分 别增长6.1%和8.5%。服务零售较快增长。居民文 ...

国家统计局最新数据显示，11月份，更加积极有为的宏观政策持续显效，国民经济延续了稳中有进的发 展态势。 国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示，下阶段，要全面贯彻落实中 央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进、提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，持续提升宏观经济治 理效能，持续扩大国内需求，强化创新驱动，深化改革开放，推进全面绿色转型，更好保障和改善民 生，推动经济持续健康发展。 就业物价稳定。11月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，与上月持平。居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，涨 幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，连续3个月回升。其中，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，连续3个 月涨幅稳定在1%以上。 民生保障有力。今年我国粮食再获丰收，为民生保障和居民增收打下坚实基础。各地加大能源保供力 度，有力保障冬季生产生活用能需求。民生投入持续加大，居民出行、购物等新业态新场景加快建设， 民生基础设施不断完善。 政策成效持续显现 付凌晖表示，今年以来，面对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区各部门按照党中央决策部署，及时出 台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需求、促进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于 ...

Economic Performance - In November, China's economy continued to show a steady and progressive development trend, characterized by stable production growth, expanded market sales, resilient foreign trade, stable employment and prices, and strong social welfare support [1] - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, while the service production index rose by 4.2% [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, and the total import and export value increased by 4.1% [1] New Economic Drivers - The new economic drivers have been continuously strengthening, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.2% and digital product manufacturing value-added growing by 9.3% from January to November [1][2] - The production of industrial robots and integrated circuits saw significant increases of 29.2% and 10.6%, respectively [1] Consumption and Investment Trends - There has been a rapid growth in service consumption, particularly in cultural and sports services, with retail sales in these categories increasing by over 10% year-on-year [2] - However, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is also slowing down [3] Policy Outlook - The recent Central Economic Work Conference outlined comprehensive plans for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need for increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote qualitative and effective improvements in the economy [3]