Core Viewpoint - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing high-quality development strategies to address uncertainties in the economic environment, emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to enhance domestic demand and improve living standards [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Challenges - The past year was marked by significant challenges, but the country managed to implement effective counter-cyclical measures, leading to improved market confidence and economic resilience [2][3]. - Despite ongoing external uncertainties and internal challenges, the long-term positive trends and support conditions for the economy remain unchanged, indicating a broad prospect for high-quality development [3]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The focus should be on high-quality development, with a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to achieve substantial breakthroughs in quality improvement [4]. - There is a need to strengthen innovation-driven growth and deepen reform and opening-up, with a strategic emphasis on expanding domestic demand to enhance endogenous growth momentum [4]. Group 3: Social Development and Welfare - Ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods is crucial, with a close integration of promoting consumption and investment in both physical and human capital to cultivate new economic growth points [4]. - Stakeholders are encouraged to leverage their strengths and actively contribute to the economic and social development by providing feedback and suggestions for high-quality development [4].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's GDP reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience amid multiple pressures and achieving new results in high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth was supported by a quarterly breakdown: Q1 at 5.4%, Q2 at 5.2%, Q3 at 4.8%, and Q4 at 4.5% [1]. - The increase in fiscal deficit by 1 percentage point and the rise in fiscal spending capacity to 56.6 billion yuan, up by 16 billion yuan from the previous year, contributed to economic stability [3]. - Export growth was notable at 5.5% in dollar terms, with net exports contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, significantly higher than the past decade's average of 0.4 percentage points [3][6]. Group 2: Structural Adjustments - The economy exhibited characteristics of "resilience" and "structural adjustment," successfully withstanding the impacts of external trade tensions, particularly from the U.S. [4]. - There is a shift in policy focus towards "anti-involution" and "expanding domestic demand" due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a GDP growth of around 4.8% to 5.0% for 2026, with key factors being the real estate market and local government debt situations [5]. - The economic trajectory for 2026 is expected to follow a "U-shaped" pattern, with a strong start in Q1, potential slowdowns in Q2, stabilization in Q3, and recovery in Q4 driven by policy support [5].

本文字数：1533，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 祝嫣然 随着宏观政策不断加力显效，2025年全年经济增长5%，完成了年初设定的预期目标。 国家统计局19日发布的数据显示，经初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比 上年增长5.0%，与上年增速持平。其中，四季度当季GDP同比增长4.5%，较第三季度增速放缓0.3个百 分点。 2026.01.19 从环比增速看，四季度GDP增长1.2%，连续两个季度增速提升，显示经济增长边际加快。 国家统计局局长康义表示，2025年实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民 经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四 五"胜利收官。 康义表示，2025年国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，比上年增长5.0%；城镇调查失业率平均值 是5.2%，就业保持总体稳定；货物贸易再创新高，外汇储备余额超过3.3万亿美元。对于我国这样超大 体量的经济体而言，在各种风险挑战交织的背景下，能够实现这样的稳定发展很不容易。 中国财政科学研究院原院长刘尚希分析，亮眼的数据充分反映出中国经济具有内在 ...

2026.01. 19 本文字数：1533，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 随着宏观政策不断加力显效，2025年全年经济增长5%，完成了年初设定的预期目标。 国家统计局19日发布的数据显示，经初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%，与上年增速持平。其中，四季 度当季GDP同比增长4.5%，较第三季度增速放缓0.3个百分点。 从环比增速看，四季度GDP增长1.2%，连续两个季度增速提升，显示经济增长边际加快。 国家统计局局长康义表示，2025年实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济运行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得 新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利收官。 康义表示，2025年国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，比上年增长5.0%；城镇调查失业率平均值是5.2%，就业保持总体稳定；货物贸易再创新 高，外汇储备余额超过3.3万亿美元。对于我国这样超大体量的经济体而言，在各种风险挑战交织的背景下，能够实现这样的稳定发展很不容易。 康义表示，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，我国发展站在了新起点上。尽管外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy in 2025 is characterized by stability, progress, innovation, and resilience, achieving a GDP of 140 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year [2][6]. Economic Stability - The stability of the Chinese economy has been reinforced, with a significant GDP growth and a stable urban unemployment rate of 5.2% [2][3]. - The foreign exchange reserves exceeded 3.3 trillion USD, and trade volume reached new highs [2][3]. Economic Progress - Despite complex internal and external environments, the focus on high-quality development has accelerated the transformation of new and old growth drivers [3][4]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth surpassed 50%, and the high-tech manufacturing sector's value added reached 17.1% of total industrial output [3][4]. Innovation and New Drivers - Research and development expenditure intensity increased to 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, with significant advancements in AI, quantum technology, and other fields [4][5]. - The digital product manufacturing sector saw a 9.3% increase in value added, and new energy vehicles accounted for over 50% of domestic sales [4][5]. Economic Resilience - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience amid global economic disruptions, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [5][8]. - High-tech product exports grew by 13.2%, showcasing the robustness of China's trade relationships [5][8]. Future Economic Outlook - The foundation for economic growth in 2026 is solid, with expectations of continued stability and support from proactive macroeconomic policies [9][11]. - The focus on high-quality development and innovation will further enhance China's economic capabilities and resilience [9][11].

国务院新闻办公室于2026年1月19日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会。国家统计局局长康义介绍 2025年国民经济运行情况，并答记者问。 从发展支撑来看，更加积极有为的宏观政策将为经济平稳运行保驾护航。2025年我国经济能够在复杂环 境中保持平稳增长，更加积极有为的宏观政策发挥了重要作用。从"两重""两新"政策加力扩围，到《稳 就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措》出台，再到综合整治"内卷式"竞争等，扩需求、优供给、稳经 济作用得到有效发挥。2025年社会消费品零售总额增速比上年加快0.2个百分点，工业增加值增速加快 0.3个百分点。2025年，中央经济工作会议明确提出，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，各方面将瞄准目标，狠 抓重点工程项目落地实施，有助于形成推动发展的强大合力。 康义提到，近期主要国际组织相继上调了对中国经济增长的预期，也表明国际社会对我国经济发展的前 景看好。"中国经济是一片大海，不是一个小池塘，能够经受住风吹浪打甚至狂风骤雨的考验。"他指 出，我们要坚定信心、保持定力，凝聚共识、修炼内功，强化创新驱动， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the material will experience low - level consolidation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Macro - Policy Background**: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss measures to boost consumption, including improving long - term mechanisms, formulating the "15th Five - Year" consumption expansion plan, and the urban and rural residents' income increase plan [3]. - **Steel Mill Operation Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.99%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points from the previous week and 13.86 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Performance**: The material fluctuated sideways last week with a small range. The fundamentals were stable with obvious off - season characteristics. With the temperature drop in many domestic areas this week, the terminal demand for building materials further weakened, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [3]. - **Later Concerns**: The report suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The成材 is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For成材 - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The成材 continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price center continues to move down [3] For Aluminum - Last week, the price of Shanghai Aluminum pulled back from a high. The market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January, while in China, there is still strong macro - positive sentiment [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite was stable last week. The supply shortage in the north is expected to gradually ease, and the inventory of alumina plants increased by 703,600 tons. The price of domestic ore is expected to decline [3] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing sectors were divided last week, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the operating rate is expected to be weak in the short term [3] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 749,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

Economic Growth Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 1401879 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% at constant prices [1] - Quarterly growth rates are expected to be 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4 [1] Macroeconomic Policy - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to sustain growth, expand domestic demand, and optimize supply [1] - Fiscal deficit rate is raised by 1 percentage point, increasing fiscal spending capacity to 5.66 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1] New Quality Productivity - High-tech manufacturing is expected to lead the growth in new quality productivity, driving economic transformation and contributing significantly to overall economic growth [2] External Demand - Export growth is projected at 5.5% in dollar terms, with net exports contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, significantly higher than the past decade's average of 0.4 percentage points [3] Economic Resilience and Structural Adjustment - The Chinese economy is characterized by resilience and structural adjustment, successfully withstanding external shocks such as the Trump trade war [3] - There are ongoing supply-demand imbalances, prompting a policy shift towards "anti-involution" and expanding domestic demand [3] 2026 Economic Outlook - Analysts expect China's economy to grow between 4.8% and 5.0% in 2026, with key factors being real estate and local government debt situations [4] - Economic growth may exhibit a "U-shaped" trajectory, with a strong start in Q1 followed by potential slowdowns in Q2 due to internal and external factors [4] - Continued proactive macro policies are anticipated to boost consumption and stabilize investment, with GDP growth expected around 4.8% [4]