Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products continued to rebound, with prices trending strongly. The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, along with environmental production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, provided support to the prices. Demand remained relatively stable, while the real - estate sector was weak. - Raw materials are expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Macro - economic Situation**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% for the second time this year and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The Chinese and US leaders are to hold a meeting, which has improved the macro - market sentiment [1]. - **Cost and Profit of Steel Mills**: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3033 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3000 yuan/ton of common square billets on October 29th, the average loss of steel mills was 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fund Availability of Construction Sites**: As of October 28th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points [1]. - **Market Performance of Finished Products and Raw Materials**: Finished products continued to rebound yesterday with strong prices. Raw materials are in a low - level operation with a potential short - term rebound [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes three important quantitative indicators for economic development: steady improvement of total factor productivity, significant increase in the consumption rate, and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [3][10][15] - Total factor productivity is emphasized as a new indicator to measure economic efficiency and productivity development, with strategies including optimizing traditional industries, supporting emerging industries, and promoting core technology breakthroughs [3][10][11] - The plan aims to increase the resident consumption rate by 3-5 percentage points to 43%-45%, enhancing domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [15][16][18] Group 2 - The plan outlines a clear blueprint for the next five years, with a focus on high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and comprehensive deepening of reforms [4][5] - It includes twelve key tasks across various sectors such as industry, technology, domestic market, and green development, with a notable shift in priorities compared to previous plans [5][8] - The emphasis on a strong domestic market and the need to break down barriers to create a unified national market is highlighted as essential for enhancing internal circulation [24][25] Group 3 - The plan stresses the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain economic growth within a range of 4.5%-5% [3][26] - It calls for strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in macroeconomic policies, indicating a more aggressive approach compared to previous plans [26][27] - Financial policies are to be aligned with industrial development, emphasizing the importance of direct financing and the use of diverse financial instruments to support economic growth [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the rising global trade uncertainty increases the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+0.81%) [10]. - The dollar index is 98.71, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.0974, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.015 (-0.21%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.78%); DR007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.50%); R007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.77%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.77%) [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the indication of relevant figures (such as the closing price trends, price change rates, etc. of treasury bond futures) is provided. The figures include the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios (top 20), long - short positions ratios (top 20), the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [14][16][18][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals The figures include Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [26][27]. IV. Spread Overview The figures include the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TS main contract [41][42][51]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate rises, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recommendations from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China regarding the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for enhanced macroeconomic governance and a shift towards an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [1] Economic Governance - The recommendations highlight the importance of strengthening the strategic guiding role of national development planning [1] - There is a call for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [1] - The article emphasizes the need to leverage various policies, including those related to industry, prices, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional development, environmental protection, and regulation [1] Economic Development Model - The focus is on promoting an economic development model that is more reliant on domestic demand and consumption, aiming for endogenous growth [1] - The recommendations advocate for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies [1] Policy Implementation - There is a push for enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation and improving the evaluation of policy implementation effectiveness [1] - The article suggests the establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism and optimizing the comprehensive performance assessment for high-quality development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, emphasizing the need to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness and promote an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [1] Group 1: Economic Governance - The document highlights the importance of strengthening the strategic guiding role of national development planning [1] - It calls for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance overall economic governance [1] - The need to leverage various policies, including industry, price, employment, consumption, investment, trade, regional, environmental, and regulatory policies, is emphasized to foster a more domestically driven economic model [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The article advocates for stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies [1] - It stresses the importance of maintaining stable growth, employment, and expectations through consistent macro policy orientation [1] - The need for enhanced evaluation of policy implementation effectiveness and the establishment of a sound expectation management mechanism is also mentioned [1] Group 3: High-Quality Development - The document underscores the importance of optimizing the comprehensive performance assessment for high-quality development [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the market over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - In the first nine months of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 2.3 percentage points compared to January-August [2]. - In September alone, the profit of these enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year, reflecting continuous improvement in industrial profits [2]. - The revenue for the same period was 1,020,846.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Goods Manufacturing - Among 13 major categories in consumer goods manufacturing, six industries, including agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, and beverages, reported positive profit growth from January to September. Notably, the beverage and agricultural processing industries saw profit growth rates exceeding 10%, at +14.4%, +12.5%, and +10.7% respectively [3]. - Conversely, seven industries experienced negative profit growth, with six of them declining over 10%. The furniture manufacturing industry faced a decline of -19.1%, while textiles and apparel saw a drop of -16.2% [3]. - Compared to January-August, profit growth in agricultural processing and food manufacturing further expanded, while the printing and chemical fiber industries turned from negative to positive growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from macro policies and low base effects from the previous year. Key recommendations include: 1. **Food and Beverage**: The liquor industry is seen as bottoming out, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support. The market is expected to see an upward turn ahead of financial reports as channel inventories clear [4]. 2. **Social Services**: As a core driver of consumption, sectors like tourism, duty-free, hotels, and restaurants are expected to benefit from policy support [4]. 3. **Retail**: In the context of a changing global trade environment, gold jewelry is highlighted as an attractive investment due to its status as a safe-haven asset [4]. 4. **Light Industry**: With policies promoting real estate recovery and "old-for-new" subsidies, demand for home and appliance products is anticipated to rise [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Information Macro - economic Data - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, with a profit of 973.4 billion yuan [2] Downstream Construction Projects - A survey of 36 downstream construction units showed that only 38.89% of enterprises have new projects in Q4 2025, and new projects will be concentrated in Q1 2026. Most enterprises' existing project scales are stable, but they face significant financial pressure and are cautious in procurement, keeping raw material inventory low [2] Market Performance -成材 rebounded yesterday, with a morning decline and an afternoon rally. After Sino - US consultations, a preliminary consensus was reached, improving the macro - level and boosting risk sentiment. Since Monday, some areas in Hebei have implemented a weather level - II emergency response, supporting the price of 成材 [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]