Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

Group 1 - The GfK consumer confidence index in the UK rose from -20 to -18 in June, reaching its highest level since December 2024, aligning with market expectations [1] - Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insight director, warned that consumer confidence remains "fragile" due to rising consumer prices, increased taxes, and signs of a deteriorating labor market [1] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has driven up oil costs, while President Trump's trade war is disrupting international trade [1]

美联储降息概率增加 特朗普政府关税对美国经济的影响尚未体现在通胀数据中。5月美国CPI指数同比上涨2.4%，高于前值 2.3%，符合预期；环比增速为0.1%，低于0.2%的前值，也低于0.2%的预期值。核心CPI同比上涨2.8%， 环比上涨0.1%，低于各自的预期值2.9%和0.3%。5月美国能源价格环比下跌1%，新车和二手车价格下 跌0.3%和0.5%。当月主要拉动物价上涨的因素是食品和房价，环比均上涨0.3%。5月美国房价同比上涨 3.9%，为2021年年末以来的最慢增速。 此前市场预期会因为关税而涨价的分项价格并未出现上涨，反而有所回落。但如果特朗普关税政策对美 国经济确实产生了影响，最终会在未来几个月的通胀、就业、经济增速等数据中体现出来。特朗普政府 的全球"对等关税"90天暂停期将在7月9日结束，因此，在此之前，美联储不太可能仓促放松货币政策。 随着贸易紧张局势的缓和，美国消费者信心六个月来首次有所改善，潜在通胀飙升的悲观情绪也明显减 轻。美国一年期通胀率预期从上月的6.6%降至本月的5.1%，长期通胀预期连续第二个月下降，从5月的 4.2%降至4.1%，这两个指数都是三个月来的最低水平。由于美国通 ...

俄罗斯二季度消费者信心上升至-8。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales declined for the second consecutive month in May, indicating a reduction in consumer spending due to concerns over tariffs and personal finances [1][2] - Retail sales fell by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest drop of the year, with significant declines in auto sales [1][2] - Seven out of thirteen retail categories experienced declines, with building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales leading the downturn [2] Group 2 - The only service sector category in the retail report, restaurant and bar spending, saw the largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [2] - Despite a recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, concerns over potential increases in auto tariffs persist, leading consumers to cut back on spending [3] - The "control group" sales, which exclude certain categories, increased by 0.4% month-over-month, driven by sales in sporting goods, furniture, and clothing [3]

Core Viewpoint - In May, U.S. retail sales experienced the largest decline of the year, indicating that new tariffs have suppressed consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales fell significantly, with 7 out of 13 categories reporting declines [1] - Spending at restaurants and bars saw its largest drop since the beginning of 2023 [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that consumers are beginning to cut back on spending [1] - Despite tariffs not yet increasing U.S. inflation, consumer confidence remains shaky due to rising living costs and high interest rates [1] - Household financial conditions have worsened [1]

白宫和以色列官员表示，以色列对伊朗的行动预计将耗时"数周，而不是数天"，并将得到美国的默许。一位以 色列官员称，特朗普政府在私下讨论中没有批评这一长达数周的时间表。一名白宫官员表示，美国政府知道并 暗中支持以色列的计划。当被问及冲突会持续多久时，这位官员说，这取决于伊朗的反应。这位官员表 示："特朗普政府坚信，这个问题可以通过继续与美国谈判来解决。"他补充称，美国不会指示以色列采取任何 行动，只会保护自己。 当地时间6月15日，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡表示，如果伊朗接受美国提出的放弃其核计划的要求，以色列愿意 停止其行动。他还表示，"当我们消除这些能力时，这一切就会结束，我们一定会这样做。"内塔尼亚胡称，以 色列与美国分享了伊朗正在研制核武器的情报："很明显，他们正在制定一项将铀武器化的秘密计划。他们的 进展非常迅速。他们将在几个月内，甚至不到一年的时间内，制造出一个测试装置，甚至可能是一个初始装 置。这就是我们与美国分享的情报。" 行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（6月13日）大幅收涨，开盘价3385.78美元/盎司，最高价3446.77美元/盎司，最低价3378.02美元/ 盎司，收盘价3426.20美元/盎司。 消 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - Israel has reported a new round of missile attacks from Iran, with nearly 100 ballistic missiles launched, resulting in at least 63 injuries, including 2 serious cases [4][6] - In retaliation, Israel has conducted airstrikes on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran and Isfahan, targeting nuclear facilities [6][4] - The Iranian military has issued threats against Israel, indicating potential severe consequences for the Israeli regime [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a collective decline in major U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.79% to 42197.79 points, the S&P 500 down 1.13% to 5976.97 points, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 1.3% to 19406.83 points [8][7] - Energy stocks have risen due to soaring oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.55% to $73.18 per barrel, nearing the peak of $78.48 from June 2022 [11][13] - Gold prices have also rebounded, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48%, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty [13]

通胀预期方面，消费者预计未来一年物价上涨率为5.1%，显著低于5月的6.6%，为自2001年10月以来最大单月 降幅。对于长期通胀，受访者预计未来5至10年年均通胀率为4.1%，较5月略降0.1个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，随着对经济的担忧缓解、短期通胀预期明显改善，美国消费者信心在6月出现了自2024年 1月以来的最大月度涨幅。 根据密歇根大学周五公布的初步数据，6月消费者信心指数环比跃升8.3点，达到60.5，远高于外媒调查中经济 学家的所有预期。这标志着该指数今年首次上涨，反映出民众对经济前景的悲观情绪有所缓解，尤其是对总 统特朗普推行的保护主义贸易政策的焦虑感减弱。 调查还显示，消费者对经济的预期指数大涨10.5点至58.4，创下自2023年12月以来最大升幅；对当前经济状况 的评估也从58.9上升至63.7，为三个月新高。不过，即便如此，消费者对商业环境、个人财务和大额消费的看 法仍低于去年底的水平。 密歇根大学消费者调查负责人Joanne Hsu指出："消费者似乎已经从4月宣布的高额关税及其后几周的政策动荡 中逐渐平复。但他们仍然认为经济面临广泛的下行风险。" 尽管如此，此番消费者情绪的改善为市 ...

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has improved for the first time in six months, rising by 16% compared to the previous month, but remains approximately 20% lower than in December 2024, when confidence rebounded post-election [1][1][1] Summary by Categories Consumer Confidence - All five components of the consumer confidence index have increased, with particularly significant gains in short-term and long-term expectations regarding business conditions, aligning with perceptions of eased tariff pressures [1][1] Economic Outlook - Consumers appear to have partially recovered from the impact of high tariffs announced in April and subsequent policy fluctuations, yet they still perceive widespread downside risks to the economy [1][1] Financial Sentiment - Despite the noticeable improvement in economic conditions this month, consumers maintain a cautious and worried outlook regarding the economy, with views on business conditions, personal financial situations, commodity purchasing conditions, labor market, and stock market all significantly lower than six months ago [1][1][1]