Group 1 - The article suggests that a recovery trend may be emerging in the macroeconomic environment, indicating a potential wealth reshuffling opportunity that occurs approximately every ten years [1][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of the macroeconomic environment in determining individual investment success, highlighting that ordinary investors can benefit from aligning with prevailing trends [1][3]. - The current international environment is described as tense, which, while seemingly negative, may also signal opportunities for economic intervention and recovery [2][3]. Group 2 - Governments typically respond to economic downturns with intervention strategies, which can create investment opportunities. These strategies include monetary policy adjustments, fiscal stimulus, and institutional reforms [3][4]. - The article notes that liquidity is crucial for market performance, with historical examples showing that increased liquidity often leads to rising asset valuations [3][6]. - The discussion includes the importance of institutional reforms in capital markets, suggesting that these reforms are necessary for a healthy market cycle and can lead to a more favorable investment environment [4][10]. Group 3 - The article identifies a third signal of a turning point: the potential for an industrial upgrade, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to experience significant growth due to technological convergence [16][29]. - It highlights that the current technological revolution is unique because it involves multiple disruptive technologies maturing simultaneously, which could lead to substantial economic growth [18][19]. - Predictions indicate that if these technologies succeed, global GDP growth could double, with inflation potentially decreasing to zero or even negative levels [29][41]. Group 4 - The article stresses the need for investors to adapt their strategies in response to market changes, emphasizing that the market is not linear and can be influenced by various factors [46][48]. - It warns against the risks of holding a single type of asset in a volatile environment, suggesting that diversification is essential for managing risk [52][54]. - The article concludes by encouraging investors to prepare for upcoming market shifts and to consider joining membership programs that provide insights and strategies for navigating these changes [56][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling 0.25%, 0.44%, and 0.33% respectively. Market trading volume was 1723.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, light manufacturing, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while comprehensive, media, and commercial retail led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IH>IF>IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2786, 217, and 2445 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 8.1 billion, - 10.5 billion, 0.3 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 10.2 billion, + 2.5 billion, - 0.9 billion, and + 8.5 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 153.85, 113.28, 38.4, and 15.07 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 15.14%, - 11.64%, - 6.07%, and - 3.62% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 15%, 18%, and 23% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, interest - rate bonds basically stabilized. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.06%, and TL fell 0.01% [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.052, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of + 1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.039, and an IRR of 1.58%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of + 1.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.059, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.108, and an IRR of 1.73% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 356.4 billion yuan and withdrew 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the valuation of interest - rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while the infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [7].

先说说油价，这波反弹其实挺有戏剧性的。前几天特朗普说俄乌谈判有进展，市场一下子慌了，担心俄 罗斯原油重回市场，油价直接跳水。但大家别忘了，我跑财经新闻那会，见过不少地缘政治驱动的油价 波动，这种靠单一消息的涨跌往往站不住脚。果然没过多久，油价就跟着全球股市一起反弹，收复了之 前的失地。其实核心原因很简单，俄乌和平协议哪有那么容易达成，双方的核心诉求一直没谈拢，加上 俄罗斯石油还在受西方制裁，短期供应端不会有大变化。不过咱们也得清醒，美国原油库存还在增加， 供应过剩的担忧没完全消除，油价后续还得看俄乌谈判的实际进展，别盲目追高。 朋友们，最近大宗商品市场可太热闹了，油价从一个月低点反弹回血，黄金铜价跟着往上冲，白银更是 涨得飞起。作为做了20年财经记者、专做中长线的帮主郑重，今天就跟大家扒一扒这波行情的核心逻 辑，还有咱们普通人该怎么跟着趋势做布局。 再看黄金和铜价，这俩上涨的逻辑就更清晰了，完全是跟着美联储的降息预期走。现在市场都在押注12 月降息，哈塞特作为下任美联储主席热门人选，又被视作"激进降息派"，这消息一出来，资金立马往避 险和通胀受益资产里流。黄金这东西，向来是降息周期的"硬通货"，今年迄今都涨了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana has lowered its key interest rate for the third consecutive time, reducing it by 350 basis points to 18%, amid expectations of continued inflation decline [1] Economic Outlook - The government forecasts an economic growth rate of approximately 4% for this year, with expectations to reach at least 4.8% by 2026 [2] - Inflation is projected to remain around 8% by the end of next year [2] Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Ghana will now use 14-day treasury bills to manage market liquidity [3] - Analysts expect this decision to gradually lower loan interest rates, providing relief to businesses and households facing high borrowing costs [4] Inflation and Currency Strength - Ghana's inflation rate peaked above 54% in December 2022 but has since decreased, reaching 8% last month, the lowest in over four years [1] - The Ghanaian currency, the cedi, has appreciated approximately 30% against the US dollar this year, alleviating inflationary pressures [1] Fiscal Policy and Future Expectations - The government aims to maintain fiscal restraint as it prepares to exit the IMF program, with a projected primary fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP by 2026 [1] - The central bank has cut the policy rate by a total of 1000 basis points by 2025, marking one of the most significant easing cycles in recent years [5] - The Bank of Ghana's dovish tone suggests potential for further rate cuts, with market expectations for at least another 500 basis points reduction by 2026 [5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Ghana has cut its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 18%, marking the third consecutive rate reduction amid expectations of continued inflation decline [2][5] - Inflation in Ghana peaked above 54% in December 2022 but has since decreased, returning to the central bank's target range of 6% to 10% by September this year, and further dropping to 8% last month, the lowest in over four years [2][3] - The Ghanaian currency, the cedi, has appreciated approximately 30% against the US dollar this year, aided by rising gold prices and improved fiscal outlook, which has alleviated inflationary pressures [2] Group 2 - The government of Ghana aims to maintain fiscal restraint as it prepares to exit the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, projecting a primary fiscal surplus of 1.5% of GDP by 2026 and a reduction in the overall fiscal deficit from 2.8% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2026 [3] - Economic growth is expected to be around 4% this year, with a forecast of at least 4.8% by 2026, while inflation is anticipated to remain around 8% by the end of next year [3] Group 3 - The central bank plans to manage market liquidity using 14-day treasury bills, which analysts expect will gradually lower loan interest rates, providing relief to businesses and households facing high borrowing costs [4] - The Bank of Ghana's external account situation has significantly improved, allowing for more flexible policy decisions, and the central bank has indicated a dovish stance, suggesting potential for further rate cuts in the future [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Ghana has cut its key interest rate by 350 basis points to 18%, marking the third consecutive reduction, amid expectations of continued inflation decline [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee decided to lower the key interest rate to 18% due to high real interest rates, providing room for further monetary easing to stimulate economic recovery [1]. - The central bank will now use 14-day treasury bills to manage market liquidity [3]. - The Bank of Ghana has cumulatively reduced the policy rate by 1000 basis points by 2025, indicating one of the most significant easing cycles in recent years [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Ghana's inflation rate, which peaked above 54% in December 2022, has gradually decreased, reaching 8% last month, the lowest in over four years, and is expected to remain stable within the central bank's target range of 6% to 10% until mid-2026 [1][2]. - The government forecasts an economic growth rate of approximately 4% this year, with expectations to reach at least 4.8% by 2026, while inflation is projected to remain around 8% by the end of next year [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the interest rate cut will gradually lower loan rates, providing relief to businesses and households facing high borrowing costs [4]. - The central bank's optimistic signals suggest potential for further significant rate cuts, with market expectations indicating at least another 500 basis points reduction by 2026, exceeding current market forecasts [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].

金融研究 2025年11月26日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 月 股四大股指全线反弹，其中上证指数上涨 市场表现：11 25 日，A 0.87%，报收 3870.02 | | | 点；深成 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 1.53%，报收 12777.31 点；创业板指上涨 1.77%，报收 2980.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.43%， | | | | | 报收 1302.17 点。市场成交 18,262 亿元，较前日增加 858 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+3.54%)，传 | | | | | | 媒(+2.85%)，有色金属(+2.42%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-0.32%)，交通运输(-0.11%)，石油石化(+0.01%) | | | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,297/160/991。沪深两市，机构、 | | | | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 111、-23、-62、-26 亿元，分别变动+133、+85、+14、-232 | | | | ...

格隆汇11月25日丨ASIA COMM HOLD(00104.HK)公告，截至2025年9月30日止6个月，集团营业收入为 3.09亿港元，同比减少9%。尽管销售额于本期间内轻微下降，惟由于需求依然强劲，市场保持韧性。 集团于期间录得纯利3300万港元，而去年同期则录得纯利3600万港元。每股盈利4.39港仙。 集团目前于中国大陆经营5间店铺。集团期内仍将重点放在核心商店，并已精简营运成本，并将持续此 一做法，旨在进一步提升每家商店的成本效益。上述店铺的未来业务前景仍取决于中国大陆经济于面临 目前挑战后的复苏情况。 ...

Group 1: Global Market Outlook for 2026 - The global GDP growth is projected to be only 2.4% in 2026, marking a near ten-year low, influenced by multiple cycles and policy factors [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy normalization is expected to maintain interest rates around 3%, leading to high-risk-free returns and impacting corporate profitability and stock valuations, particularly in financing-dependent sectors like technology and manufacturing [1] - China's economic recovery is crucial for global recovery, currently undergoing structural adjustments, with a focus on stabilizing employment and boosting consumer income through policies like tax cuts and interest rate reductions [2] Group 2: Challenges to Globalization - The global trade growth is anticipated to slow down to 0.8% in 2025, the lowest in nearly fourteen years, due to rising trade barriers and policy uncertainties, which may continue into 2026 [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in AI - The AI wave is seen as a long-term growth driver that transcends economic cycles, representing a significant opportunity for investment [4] - Different markets present varied investment strategies; A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq require tailored approaches to capture opportunities effectively [5] Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - A-shares offer long-term investment value, with high-quality, stable earnings potential in sectors like high-end manufacturing and essential consumer goods, despite high valuations in the AI sector [6] - The potential for recovery in consumer sectors is supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [6] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is characterized by lower valuations in AI-related companies compared to their A-share counterparts, making it an attractive investment area [7] - The AI industry is viewed as a growth engine for investment portfolios in the coming years [7] Group 6: Nasdaq Market Insights - Nasdaq is home to many leading AI companies, and historical trends suggest that the next AI leader will likely emerge from this market [8] - Investing in Nasdaq index products is recommended to capitalize on the potential growth from the AI revolution [8] Group 7: Gold as a Hedge - Gold has performed well in the past two years, but excessive reliance on its past performance for future gains is cautioned against, as all investments experience cycles [9] Group 8: Conclusion on Investment Strategy - The overarching theme for 2026 is to seek certainty amid uncertainty, with a focus on AI as a primary investment theme, complemented by strategic allocations in A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Nasdaq, along with a measured approach to gold for risk hedging [10]