金融研究 2025年10月9日 星期四 交易策略：中长期，我们维持做多经济的判断，当下以股指做多头替代有一定超额，推荐逢低配置各 品种远期合约。 风险提示：外生宏观冲击、财政扩张进度不及预期、其他系统性冲击。 市场表现：9 月 30 日，债市走强，活跃合约中，二债隐含利率 1.401，较前日下跌 2.79bps，五债隐 含利率 1.596，较前日下跌 3.47bps，十债隐含利率 1.77，较前日下跌 2.15bps，三十债隐含利率 2.262， 较前日下跌 2.81bps。 现券：目前活跃合约为 2512 合约，2 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250012.IB，收益率变动-1bps，对应 净基差-0.022，IRR1.54%；5 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 250003.IB，收益率变动-1.75bps，对应净基 差-0.008，IRR1.48%；10 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 220017.IB，收益率变动-4.33bps，对应净基差 国债期货 -0.137，IRR2.07%；30 年期国债期货 CTD 券为 220008.IB，收益率变动-3.5bps，对应净基差 0.068， IRR1.2%。 资 ...

固收：10 月转债投资思路？20251008 摘要 权益市场和可转债预计迎来第二轮上升行情，投资者正将估值中枢向 2026 年切换，经济复苏和反内卷逻辑或成定价关键因素。当前可转债 估值已充分反映股票预期，虽估值偏高，但考虑到股票预期强劲，预计 10 月成交量复苏，可转债指数有望创新高。 推荐关注锂电、电子算力等核心赛道的可转债，如沪深 300、创业板指 及 A500 成分股对应的标的，受益于资金流入和公募基金扩容。同时关 注溢价率较低但位于核心赛道的标的，如天赐、新宙邦等，这些股性强、 跟涨正股动能大的标的值得重点关注。 当前强赎概率较高，但股票上涨预期抵消了负面影响。在震荡向上的慢 牛趋势下，股市上涨将继续支撑股性可转换公司债券估值。同时，下修 概率有所上升，上市公司或提前下修进行市值管理。 股性转债仍是核心资产，虽有溢价，但上涨能力强且抗跌。锂电产业链 指向旺季景气上修，下半年盈利修复预期增强，全链预排产环比上升， 同比增幅约 40%。 Q&A 对于短期可转债市场的观点是什么？ 进入 10 月后，可转债市场逐步进入买点。从 9 月上证指数表现来看，整体呈 现高位震荡趋势，主要是消化前期盈利盘和赛道轮换， ...

德国政府略微上调2025年经济增长预期 根据预测，德国经济将在2026年增长1.3%，2027年增长1.4%。 中新社柏林10月8日电 (记者 马秀秀)德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇8日在柏林出席新闻发布会，介 绍联邦政府秋季经济预测。她表示，预计2025年德国经济将增长0.2%，较此前春季预测的"零增长"略有 上调。 德国经济与能源部当天发布声明称，经历连续两年经济萎缩后，德国经济在2025年秋季出现轻微复苏迹 象。到2025/2026年交替之际，受政府经济和财政政策措施支撑，德国国内经济活力预计进一步增强。 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 声明指出，此次推动德国经济复苏的动力主要来自国内需求，而非传统的出口行业。稳定的物价、工资 上涨以及针对家庭的减负政策，将在未来几年提升居民的实际可支配收入。与此同时，随着劳动力市场 状况预期改善，消费者信心有望回升，从而带动面向消费者的服务行业(如零 ...

Core Viewpoint - The persistent decline in German industrial orders dampens hopes for economic recovery, with August showing a 0.8% month-on-month decrease, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [1] Group 1: Industrial Orders - In August, new industrial orders in Germany fell by 0.8% month-on-month, continuing a downward trend for four months [1] - Domestic demand increased by 4.7% month-on-month, but overseas orders dropped for the third consecutive month, decreasing by 4.1% [1] - Orders from the Eurozone decreased by 2.9%, while orders from outside the Eurozone fell by 5.0% [1] - The automotive sector saw a significant decline in new orders, with a month-on-month drop of 6.4% [1] - The computer, electronics, and optical products manufacturing sector experienced an 11.5% decrease in new orders, while the pharmaceutical industry saw a 13.5% decline [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy indicated that the recovery in domestic industrial demand suggests a potential stabilization, but weak overseas demand continues to hinder recovery [1] - Experts express concern over the decline in overseas orders, especially after a slight recovery earlier in the year [2] - The chief economist of Deutsche Bank predicts significant improvement in the economy will not occur until next year [1] - The economic outlook remains bleak, with expectations for economic growth in 2025 and 2026 being cautious, as indicated by various economists [2][3] Group 3: Government Response and Challenges - There are calls for the German government to implement substantial fiscal measures, with plans for significant investment in infrastructure [2] - The lack of effective economic stimulus measures after two years of recession is highlighted as a critical issue [2] - High energy costs and stagnant innovation investments are noted as factors undermining the competitiveness of German industrial products [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the correlation between stock price movements and earnings performance, emphasizing the importance of understanding the details of each phase in the four-stage theory of market cycles [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the first and third phases are characterized by speculative trading, while the second phase focuses on earnings growth, and the fourth phase highlights the advantages of dividends and cross-market arbitrage [1][2] - The current market phase, starting from June 8, has shifted towards a focus on companies with solid earnings, moving away from speculative stocks that have been historically unprofitable [1] Group 2 - The second phase of the economic cycle is a response to recovery, with the first recovering industries receiving the most attention [2] - The third phase reflects the residual effects of economic prosperity, where high-growth earnings reports continue, but core company stock prices may have peaked, leading investors to seek undervalued companies [2] - The fourth phase sees a shift towards stability, with a preference for high-dividend stocks and cross-market arbitrage as investors become more risk-averse [2]

Group 1 - Private equity institutions are optimistic about the continuation of the A-share market after the National Day holiday, suggesting a balance between defensive and offensive strategies while being cautious of valuation pressures in certain tech stocks [1][5] - Fusheng Asset notes that aside from tech stocks, other sectors returned to a range-bound trend in September, but they remain optimistic about the overall market performance, highlighting improvements in leading companies in "anti-involution" industries such as engineering machinery and chemicals [3] - Yuanlesheng Asset emphasizes that despite significant gains for many quality companies this year, fluctuations may present buying opportunities, indicating that the Chinese asset market still holds potential for deeper exploration [3] Group 2 - Danshuiquan Investment attributes recent A-share fluctuations to a short-term adjustment following rapid local increases, with liquidity primarily driven by domestic institutions and existing investors, while foreign and individual investors have not fully engaged [4] - Danyi Investment identifies the core driving force of the current market as a result of multiple structural factors rather than conventional economic cycles, with a focus on opportunities in AI, cloud computing, and domestic computing power supply chains [6] - Ning Shui Capital observes a decrease in market trading activity and advises balancing defensive and offensive strategies while monitoring the pre-increase direction of Q3 reports and being wary of valuation pressures in certain tech stocks [6]

Group 1 - Israel and Hamas representatives will hold talks in Egypt on October 6, focusing on a ceasefire plan proposed by President Trump [2] - The discussions will address the conditions for personnel exchange and aim to end nearly two years of conflict in Gaza [2] - A U.S. official confirmed that Middle East envoy Greenblatt and Jared Kushner will join the talks [2] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky signed new sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian entrepreneurs, the military-industrial sector, and the oil industry [4] - Russia's presidential aide emphasized the need to accelerate naval power development to counter strategic provocations from Western countries [4] Group 3 - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 96.2%, while the chance of maintaining rates is only 3.8% [6] - In December, the probability of maintaining rates is 0.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis points cut at 13.3% and a cumulative 50 basis points cut at 86.3% [6] Group 4 - In September, A-share market transaction volume reached approximately 53.2 trillion yuan, setting a new monthly record [9] - The A-share market saw significant index performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.04% and the STAR 50 Index increasing by 11.48% [8] - Daily transaction volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 35 consecutive trading days since August 13 [10] Group 5 - Hong Kong stocks had a strong start in the fourth quarter, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.61% to a near four-year high [12] - The global liquidity preference has shifted towards easing due to the Fed's rate cut cycle, attracting international capital to undervalued Hong Kong stocks [13] - The A-share market showed strong performance before the National Day holiday, indicating a change in market sentiment and capital structure [14] Group 6 - Analysts expect a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, driven by policy expectations and a favorable liquidity environment [15] - The upcoming important meetings, such as the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, are anticipated to influence market policies positively [15] - Historical trends suggest that the market typically experiences increased trading volume and heightened risk appetite after the National Day holiday [15]

Group 1: Israel-Hamas Talks - The Israeli and Hamas delegations will hold talks in Egypt on October 6, focusing on a ceasefire plan proposed by President Trump [1] - The discussions will address the conditions for personnel exchanges and the details of the ceasefire [1] - The U.S. officials, including Middle East envoy Greenblatt and Jared Kushner, will participate in the talks [1] Group 2: Ukraine-Russia Sanctions - Ukrainian President Zelensky signed multiple new sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian entrepreneurs, military industry, and the oil sector [2] - Russia's maritime commission chairman emphasized the need to strengthen naval forces to deter strategic provocations from Western countries [2] Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 96.2%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 3.8% [3] - For December, the probability of maintaining the rate is 0.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 13.3% and a cumulative 50 basis point cut at 86.3% [3] Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - In September, the A-share market saw significant index increases, with the ChiNext Index rising by 12.04% and the STAR 50 Index by 11.48% [4] - The total trading volume in September reached approximately 53.2 trillion yuan, setting a new monthly record [4] - Daily trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 35 consecutive trading days since August 13 [4] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market had a strong start in Q4, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.61% on October 2, reaching a nearly four-year high [5] - The strong performance is attributed to global liquidity preferences shifting towards a more accommodative stance due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [6] Group 6: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Unlike previous years, the last trading day before the National Day holiday saw collective index increases and active trading, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7] - Increased financing balances and active financing funds suggest a strong willingness for new capital to enter the market [7] - The financial sector, particularly securities firms, is expected to perform well, supported by recent central bank policies [7] Group 7: Post-Holiday Market Expectations - The market is expected to trend upwards post-holiday due to several factors, including upcoming important political meetings and a favorable liquidity environment [8] - Historical trends indicate that trading volume and risk appetite typically increase after the National Day holiday [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on October 9, 2025, signaling continued liquidity support in the market, which is expected to positively impact the A-share market post-holiday [2][3]. Policy Operation Reasons - The operation aims to counteract liquidity gaps caused by the concentrated issuance of government bonds, with local bond issuance in October expected to reach approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which will withdraw funds from the market [6]. - There is a demand for credit expansion, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments accelerating, thereby increasing loan disbursement [6]. - Seasonal factors, such as heightened cash demand during holidays and increased fiscal deposits, are also contributing to liquidity pressures [6]. - The advance announcement of the operation is intended to stabilize market expectations and prevent fluctuations in the funding environment [7]. Market Impact - In the stock market, the ample liquidity is favorable for A-shares, providing significant support for market funds, and potentially increasing the margin trading balance [9]. - In the bond market, the mid-term liquidity injection is expected to lower bond yields, with government bond rates likely to decline [9]. - In the money market, the cost of interbank funds is anticipated to decrease, alleviating the liability pressure on small and medium-sized banks [9]. - For the real economy, financing costs are expected to decline, leading to lower loan rates for enterprises and individuals, thus easing mortgage pressures [9]. - Enhanced credit support is anticipated for small and micro enterprises and green transformation sectors due to increased bank liquidity [9]. Policy Trend Outlook - The PBOC is likely to continue using a combination of buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to maintain liquidity, with a potential rollover of 500 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos in October [11]. - There may be a reserve for long-term tools, with a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter, which would replace some mid-term liquidity injections [11]. - The current operations highlight a targeted approach in monetary policy, aiming to create space for fiscal efforts while laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that Peru's GDP is projected to grow by 3.41% in July 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, marking 16 consecutive months of growth [1] Economic Performance by Sector - The fishing industry has solidified its position as the most dynamic driver of the economy, with a 34.9% increase in output due to higher catch volumes for indirect human consumption [1] - The agricultural sector experienced an 8.5% growth driven by increased crop yields and livestock activities [1] - The construction industry grew by 5.0%, attributed to increased cement consumption and progress in public and private projects [1] - Manufacturing saw a 3.7% increase, supported by the fishing and consumer goods sectors [1] - Transportation and courier services grew by 4.3% due to increased freight and passenger volumes [1] - Other service industries reported a growth of 3.5% [1] Economic Confidence and Future Challenges - Minister Gonzalez emphasized that the performance in July reflects public confidence in the national economy [1] - The ongoing challenge is to maintain this growth momentum through enhancing competitiveness, supporting small and medium enterprises, and expanding the national export base [1] - These activities demonstrate the resilience of the Peruvian economy, continuing to create formal employment, strengthen production chains, and solidify recovery [1]