Core Insights - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for China in August rose to 50.5 from 49.5, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase in new orders, which reached the fastest growth in five months, was the main driver for the PMI rebound, supported by domestic promotional activities and improved basic demand [1] - Although new export orders remain slightly below the neutral line, the pace of decline has significantly slowed compared to July, suggesting initial stabilization in the global trade environment [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The improvement in order conditions has led to a recovery in manufacturing production, ending a contraction phase from July [1] - Companies are showing increased willingness to procure, with both raw material and finished goods inventories accumulating, and the growth rate of unfinished orders reaching a six-month high [1] - Despite the increase in orders leading to higher capacity pressure, companies remain cautious in hiring, marking the fifth consecutive month of layoffs in the manufacturing sector [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the return of the PMI to the expansion zone reflects the initial effects of recent domestic demand-boosting policies, with both internal and external demand contributing to short-term economic recovery [1] - However, challenges such as operational pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and a weak job market need to be monitored, as the sustainability of economic recovery will depend on policy support for micro-entities and changes in the global trade environment [1][2]

Core Insights - Japan's manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline in recurring profits, down 11.5% year-on-year in Q2, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and other factors [1] - Overall sales in Japan's non-financial sectors saw a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while recurring profits in non-manufacturing rose by 6.6% [1] - The transportation machinery sector, heavily reliant on the automotive industry, faced the most severe profit drop of 29.7% [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In Q2, manufacturing sales increased by 1.3% year-on-year, but recurring profits fell by 11.5%, marking a consecutive decline over two quarters [1] - Out of 11 manufacturing industries, 7 reported a decrease in recurring profits, with declines exceeding 10% in sectors such as petroleum, steel, metal products, transportation machinery, chemical industry, commercial machinery, and general machinery [1] Investment Trends - Total equipment investment across all industries, including software investments, grew by 7.6% year-on-year [1] - A representative from the Ministry of Finance indicated that while the economy is showing signs of slow recovery, U.S. trade policies pose a downside risk, necessitating close monitoring of corporate trends [1]

Core Insights - Japan's manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline in recurring profits, down 11.5% year-on-year in Q2, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and other factors [1] - Overall sales in Japan's non-financial and insurance sectors saw a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, while recurring profits in the non-manufacturing sector grew by 6.6% [1] - The transportation machinery industry, particularly the automotive sector, faced the most severe profit drop of 29.7% [1] Manufacturing Sector Performance - Total sales in the manufacturing sector increased by 1.3% year-on-year, but recurring profits fell by 11.5% [1] - Out of 11 manufacturing industries, 7 reported a decline in recurring profits, with significant drops in sectors such as petroleum, steel, metal products, and transportation machinery [1] - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector's recurring profits have now declined for two consecutive quarters [1] Investment Trends - Equipment investment across all industries, including software investment, rose by 7.6% year-on-year [1] - The Ministry of Finance noted that while the economy is showing signs of slow recovery, U.S. trade policies pose a risk to economic stability, warranting close monitoring of corporate trends [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction zone [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, while the composite PMI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, suggesting overall economic recovery [1] - The hospitality and new orders indices in the accommodation sector, although still below 50%, showed significant month-on-month increases of over 5 percentage points, indicating strong consumer activity during the summer [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent demand issues that negatively impact certain industrial product prices, such as steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The input price index for raw materials stands at 53.3%, reflecting a 1.8% increase, which suggests rising cost pressures that may benefit energy, non-ferrous, and steel sectors [1] - The economic recovery is characterized as weak, with production recovery outpacing demand, indicating that companies may face challenges in increasing efficiency despite production increases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Chinese economy is experiencing a recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policy measures and inherent resilience, which brings positive expectations for the human resources service industry [1] - The employment market is showing signs of recovery but remains differentiated, with a notable talent gap in high-end sectors like AI and semiconductors, creating opportunities for the company to focus on the mid-to-high-end talent market [2][3] - The company is positioned uniquely in the market due to its focus on mid-to-high-end recruitment and AI technology, making it a target for market funds in the current bull market [3] Group 2 - The company's financial report for the first half of 2025 shows multiple highlights, including an increase in registered enterprise users to 1.43 million, a 4.8% year-on-year growth, and a slight decrease in paid enterprise clients by 0.9% [5] - The AI product matrix has been continuously improved, with over 70% of paid clients using AI recruitment products, and the recommendation rate for potential candidates has significantly increased to 64% [6] - The company is making forward-looking investments in AI technology and plans to enhance its recruitment assistant products, aiming to provide efficient and cost-effective smart recruitment services [7]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Financial Futures Morning Express" and is issued by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 29, 2025 [1] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 28, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14% to 3843.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25% to 12571.37 points, the ChiNext Index up 3.82% to 2827.17 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 7.23% to 1364.6 points. Market turnover was 30,009 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,969 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+7.14%), electronics (+5.53%), and national defense and military industry (+2.29%) led the gains, while coal (-0.81%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.73%), and textile and apparel (-0.47%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IM > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,867/157/2,400 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 122, - 268, - 18, and 408 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +285, +238, - 175, and - 348 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 141.31, 89.96, 9.18, and - 1.27 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 15.3%, - 10.35%, - 1.66%, and 0.35% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 12%, 14%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2] Bond Futures - On August 28, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.403, up 1.46 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.636, up 2.16 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.765, up 1.75 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.118, up 3.68 bps [3] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1.2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.036, and an IRR of 1.42%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.36%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of +4 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.098, and an IRR of 1.21%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +3.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.15, and an IRR of 1.18% [3] Capital Market - In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 4,161 billion yuan and withdrew 2,530 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 1,631 billion yuan [4] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium and long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [3] Bond Futures - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [4] Data Tables Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table shows the performance of various stock index futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc. [6] Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - The table presents the performance of various treasury bond futures contracts, including code, name, change rate, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily change in open interest, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield, as well as the performance of corresponding spot treasury bonds [8] Short - term Capital Interest Rate Market Changes - The table shows the current price, previous price, price one week ago, and price one month ago of SHIBOR overnight [11] Figures Treasury Bond Spot Term Structure - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot yields at different time points from 2024/8/28 to 2025/8/28 for different maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years [10] Domestic Meso - level Data Tracking - Based on the changes (month - on - month of year - on - year) of meso - level data in each module compared with the same period in the past five years, scores are assigned (-2 to +2). Positive scores represent an improvement in the prosperity index, negative scores represent a decline, and a score of zero represents little change [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, in the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. - For bond futures, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to 3800.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.43% to 12295.07 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2723.2 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.13% to 1272.56 points. Market turnover was 31,978 billion yuan, an increase of 4,880 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+1.66%) led the gainers, while beauty care (-3.86%) led the decliners. From the perspective of market strength, IC > IF > IH > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 633/29/4,761 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 407, - 506, 157, and 756 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 216, - 238, +126, and +328 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 101.5, 68.76, 8.93, and 0.18 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 10.81%, - 7.83%, - 1.59%, and - 0.05% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 32%, 25%, 41%, and 43% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - long term, maintain the view of being bullish on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips; in the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [1]. (2) Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On August 27, most yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.379, down 0.93 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.605, down 0.96 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.744, up 0.22 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 2.073, down 0.87 bps [1]. - **Cash Bond**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two - year bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.014 and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the five - year bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.004 and an IRR of 1.52%; the CTD bond of the ten - year bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.097 and an IRR of 1.25%; the CTD bond of the thirty - year bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.093 and an IRR of 1.76% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 3,799 billion yuan and withdrew 6,160 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,361 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - long term [2]. (3) Economic Data High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9].

Core Viewpoint - China New Economy Investment (00080.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and a loss for the first half of the fiscal year, reflecting challenges in the Chinese economy and market volatility in the Greater China region [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was HKD 10 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 98.64% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders during the same period was HKD 4.3493 million, which is a 65.83% reduction in loss compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at HKD 0.003 [1] Investment Environment - The investment performance of the company during the first half of the year was adversely affected by the slow recovery of the Chinese economy and increased volatility in the Greater China stock markets [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the company recorded an unaudited net asset value of approximately HKD 0.04 per share [1] - In light of the recent instability in the Greater China stock market, the company plans to continue monitoring its investments cautiously [1]

Group 1 - The price of London gold is currently trading around $3386.42 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.30% [1] - The highest price reached was $3399.14 per ounce, while the lowest was $3385.28 per ounce, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The movement of gold prices is closely linked to the dynamics of the US dollar and the bond market, with the dollar showing fluctuations influenced by investor sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policies and political changes in France [2][3] Group 2 - The US two-year Treasury yield has dropped to a near four-month low of 3.625%, while the ten-year yield has decreased to 4.236%, indicating a potential economic recovery signal [2] - The demand for the $70 billion five-year Treasury auction was at an average level, reflecting investor adaptation to the current low-interest-rate environment [3] - Political instability in France is impacting the euro's performance, which may lead to a stronger dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3 - In the previous trading session, gold prices faced resistance at $3393 before retreating to a support level of $3373, resulting in a doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart [4] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3398 and $3406, with potential for further upward movement if these levels are breached [4] - If gold can maintain above $3406, it may target the range of $3415 to $3421, presenting opportunities for short positions if it fails to break through [4]

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning report released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on August 27, 2025, covering the performance and trading strategies of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on August 26, 2025 [1][2] Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On August 26, the four major A-share stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3,868.38 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12,473.17 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.76% to 2,742.13 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.31% to 1,270.87 points. Market turnover was 2.7098 trillion yuan, a decrease of 467.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.62%), beauty care (+2.04%), and basic chemicals (+1.26%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-1.09%), non-bank finance (-1.06%), and steel (-0.98%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,802/152/2,469 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of -19.2 billion, -26.8 billion, 3.1 billion, and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -5.3 billion, +3.6 billion, -2.2 billion, and +3.9 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 113.87, 82.87, 10.99, and -2.22 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -11.54%, -9.01%, -1.87%, and 0.57% respectively, with three-year historical quantiles of 28%, 18%, 39%, and 51% respectively [2] Treasury Bond Futures - On August 26, the yields of treasury bond futures mostly declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.383, up 0.53 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five-year bond was 1.612, down 0.12 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten-year bond was 1.735, down 1.42 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty-year bond was 2.079, down 1.94 bps [2] - In terms of cash bonds, the current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bond of the two-year treasury bond futures is 250012.IB, with a yield change of -0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.004, and an IRR of 1.5%; the CTD bond of the five-year treasury bond futures is 250003.IB, with a yield change of -0.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the ten-year treasury bond futures is 220017.IB, with a yield change of -0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.123, and an IRR of 1.09%; the CTD bond of the thirty-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of -2 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.222, and an IRR of 0.96% [2] - In terms of the money market, in open market operations, the central bank injected 405.8 billion yuan and withdrew 580.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 174.5 billion yuan [2] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - In the medium to long term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long-term contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [2] Treasury Bond Futures - With the upward shift in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium to long term [2] Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]