Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term bullish view on the economy. It suggests that using stock index futures as a long - position substitute can bring certain excess returns, and recommends buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, in the medium - to long - term, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when the prices are high [2]. Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Stock Market**: On January 22, A - share four major stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14% to close at 224122.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5% to close at 14327.05 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.01% to close at 3328.65 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.41% to close at 1541.64 points. The market turnover was 27,164 billion yuan, an increase of 927 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Among industry sectors, building materials (+4.09%), national defense and military industry (+3.23%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+3.07%) led the increase, while beauty care (-0.76%), banks (-0.43%), and pharmaceutical and biological (-0.42%) led the decline. In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3,576, 119, and 1,774 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 10 billion, - 95 billion, - 37 billion, and 141 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 164 billion, +4 billion, +64 billion, and +97 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 16.75, - 12.41, 4.31, and - 8.07 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 1.4%, 1.03%, - 0.63%, and 1.84% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 89%, 92%, 58%, and 71% respectively [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On January 22, interest - rate bonds weakened slightly. Among active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF fell 0.04%, T fell 0.05%, and TL fell 0.07% [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.013, and an IRR of 1.42%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.008, and an IRR of 1.46%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.005, and an IRR of 1.54%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.044, and an IRR of 1.75% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 2,102 billion yuan and withdrew 1,793 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 309 billion yuan [2]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data show that the prosperity of the real estate and social activity sectors is lower than in the previous period, while the prosperity of the manufacturing, import - export, and infrastructure sectors is similar to that of the previous period [8].

2025年的GDP数据新鲜出炉啦！七大城市的表现真是让人眼前一亮，尤其是杭州、台州和泸州这几个亮点，咱们一起来瞧瞧这些数字背后的故事吧。先说整 体，经济复苏的势头挺稳的，各城都在稳步爬坡，但增速有快有慢，这背后藏着不少有趣的细节呢。 | | 上一年 | 2025GDP(亿元) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 2025 ↓ | 2024 | | 名义 增长率 | | 1 | 上海市 | 56708.71 53759.53 | | 2949.18 | 5.49% | | 2 | 北京市 | 52073.4 | 49670.2 | 2403.2 | 4.84% | | 3 | 杭州市 | 23011 | | 21860.32 1150.68 | 5.26% | | 4 | 台州市 | 7005.87 | 6656.4 | 349.47 | 5.25% | | 5 | 湖州市 | 4452.8 | 4213.42 | 239.38 | 5.68% | | 6 | 泸州市 | 3004.29 | 2831.47 | 172.82 | 6.1% ...

01 1月22日，A股通用航空板块再度走强，多只航空主题ETF大涨近4%，军工、卫星等相关主题ETF普遍涨超3%；此前热度较高的半导体设备、电网、黄金 股等板块集体降温，多只半导体设备主题ETF跌超2%。 02 近期，股票型ETF持续遭遇资金净流出。1月21日，股票型ETF首度出现单日净流出超千亿元的情况，创历史纪录。部分中证1000、上证50、沪深300主题 ETF净流出额集体创下单日历史新高。 03 截至1月21日，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、南方中证1000ETF、华夏中证1000ETF、广发中证 1000ETF、富国中证1000ETF等宽基产品的最新份额数量，均已少于中央汇金2025年末的持仓数量。 通用航空主题ETF再度走强 1月22日，全市场仅有的两只巴西主题ETF集体涨超4%，今年以来已累计涨10%左右。 经过此前调整，A股通用航空板块今日再度走强，多只航空主题ETF涨幅接近4%，卫星、军工等相关主题ETF也普遍涨超3%；建材、油气、可控核聚变等 板块今日表现同样较为活跃，多只建材、油气、创业板人工智能等主题ETF涨超3%。 | 代码 ...

Amid a continued economic recovery, people's incomes in China showed sustained growth in 2025 According to recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's per capita disposable income stood at 43,377 yuan ($6,192) in 2025, marking a 5 percent year-on-year increase in nominal terms. The living standards of the Chinese population have progressed from mere subsistence to moderate prosperity in all areas. (Text/ Ma Ziqian, Picture/Jia Zifan) 来源：中国青年报客户端 Amid a continued economic rec ...

| | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.08%，报收 点；深成 21 4116.94 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.7%，报收 14255.13 点；创业板指上涨 0.54%，报收 3295.52 点；科创 50 指数上涨 3.53%， | | | 报收 1535.39 点。市场成交 26,237 亿元，较前日减少 1,805 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+2.79%)， | | | 电子(+2.62%)，机械设备(+1.5%)涨幅居前；银行(-1.58%)，煤炭(-1.57%)，食品饮料(-1.53%)跌幅 | | | 居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,095/179/2,195。沪深两市，机构、主 | | | 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 155、-98、-100、44 亿元，分别变动+627、+194、-345、-475 | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 16.68、-30.89、0.27 与-6.42 点，基差年化收益率分别 | | | 为-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Australia is experiencing a normalization of its economy after significant macroeconomic fluctuations since the COVID-19 pandemic, but reforms are necessary to enhance productivity growth, improve housing affordability, and facilitate the energy transition [26][27][70] - The budget deficit is projected to narrow gradually, but long-term fiscal pressures related to aging and climate change need to be addressed through improved tax efficiency and expenditure restraint [26][38][70] - High housing costs are a significant issue, driven by restrictive land-use regulations and favorable tax treatments that increase demand; measures to ease planning restrictions and reform property taxes are recommended [26][46][71] - Competition in the Australian economy has weakened over the past two decades, necessitating stronger enforcement of competition policies and reduced regulatory fragmentation to foster a more competitive environment [58][60][62] Summary by Sections Section 1: Key Policy Insights - The Australian economy is returning to its trend growth path after a period of weak demand, with high employment and inflation stabilizing within target ranges [69] - Long-term fiscal challenges must be addressed through a combination of expenditure restraint and tax reforms [69] - Housing affordability issues require measures to facilitate permitting and boost housing supply [69] Section 2: Revitalising Competition - Competition has waned, with market concentration rising and business dynamism declining; the government’s Competition Review aims to address these issues [58][60] - The new merger regime and National Competition Policy are positive steps, but effective implementation is crucial [61][62] - Regulatory barriers and differences in state-level regulations hinder competition and increase costs for firms [63][64] Section 3: Addressing the Climate Transition - While emissions are falling in line with 2030 targets, further efforts are needed to reduce transport and agricultural emissions [54][56] - A strategy to gradually raise taxes on motor fuels and improve public transport infrastructure is recommended to encourage lower-emission transport [56][68] - Continued investment in renewable energy and infrastructure is essential to manage the transition away from coal [55][56]

金融研究 2026年1月21日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指有所下跌，其中上证指数下跌 0.01%，报收 点；深成 20 4113.65 | | --- | --- | | | 指下跌 0.97%，报收 14155.63 点；创业板指下跌 1.79%，报收 3277.98 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.58%， | | | 报收 1482.99 点。市场成交 28,042 亿元，较前日增加 720 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+1.74%)， | | | 建筑材料(+1.71%)，房地产(+1.55%)涨幅居前；通信(-3.23%)，国防军工(-2.87%)，计算机(-1.94%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,231/137/3,102。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-472、-292、244、520 亿元，分别变动-263、-103、+151、 | | 股指期货 | | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 61.95、-1、10.28 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market has positive support overall, but short - term rhythm and structural optimization need attention. It is recommended to optimize positions using market fluctuations and focus on performance and prosperity [2][4]. - The strong start - up of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The regulatory move to cool the market will lead the bullish market into a more stable second half [4][9]. - With the release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is advisable to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Strategy - In the past week (January 12 - 16, 2026), the A - share market reached a new high and then pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index had a rare "17 - consecutive - positive" start on January 12, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reaching 3.64 trillion yuan, a record high. However, after reaching a peak trading volume of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, the market declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% for the week. Sectors such as electronics, computers, power equipment and new energy, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while national defense and military industry, coal, real estate, and banking sectors led the losses. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap stocks [6]. - The convertible bond market rose against the trend, and its valuation continued to recover. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% for the week, and the equal - weighted convertible bond index rose 1.45%, slightly less than the 1.88% increase of the equal - weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds. Various convertible bond market indices generally rose, with high - price and low - premium convertible bonds and small - cap convertible bonds performing relatively better, while the large - cap convertible bond index, double - low index, and low - price index performed relatively poorly [6]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The strong start of the convertible bond market in early 2026 is due to the resonance of macro - economic improvement and capital return. The macro - economy shows positive signals, including the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, continuous improvement of price indicators such as CPI and PPI, and a general rise in commodity prices. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening, and the central bank indicates that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. At the beginning of the year, institutional funds such as public funds and insurance funds are in the layout window, and the risk appetite of trading - type funds has increased, with the margin trading balance continuously hitting new highs [4][9]. - To cool the market and prevent leverage risks, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges raised the margin ratio for new margin trading contracts from 80% to 100% starting from January 19, 2026. This measure, implemented in a "new - old separation" way, aims to suppress excessive speculation. In the short term, it may cause market fluctuations and investment hotspot differentiation, but in the long term, it helps the capital market to develop steadily [4][9]. - The convertible bond market still has positive support. With the continuous release of policy dividends, moderate recovery of corporate profits, and strong demand for convertible bonds from "fixed - income +" funds in the context of the "asset shortage", the convertible bond market is expected to perform steadily in the volatile market. Since early 2026, the median price of convertible bonds has risen from 134 yuan to 139 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate has increased from 33% to 34%. The new bond market has been booming. However, there are two core risks: the valuation correction caused by the cooling of the equity market and the valuation decline risk of convertible bonds approaching the call - trigger condition [4][10]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A - share market may face short - term shocks due to factors such as policy regulation and seasonal capital flow. Given the current high - price and high - valuation situation in the convertible bond market, market fluctuations may increase. It is recommended to re - balance positions and avoid aggressive chasing [4][10][11]. - With the intensive release of annual report pre - announcements, the performance of underlying stocks will be an important basis for the differentiation of convertible bond issues. It is recommended to select convertible bonds of underlying stocks with high - certainty performance growth in Q1 2026, including those in the AI computing power and semiconductor industries, non - ferrous metals and some chemical industries, and the energy storage industry chain [4][11].

金融研究 2026年1月20日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：1 月 19 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.29%，报收 4114 点；深成指 上涨 0.09%，报收 14294.05 点；创业板指下跌 0.7%，报收 3337.61 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.48%， 报收 1506.86 点。市场成交 27,322 亿元，较前日减少 3,243 亿元。行业板块方面，基础化工(+2.7%)， 石油石化(+2.08%)，电力设备(+1.84%)涨幅居前；计算机(-1.55%)，通信(-0.96%)，银行(-0.6%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,526/117/1,826。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-209、-189、93、305 亿元，分别变动-75、-84、+19、+140 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 79.05、21.95、5.86 与-1.66 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-6.13%、-1.7%、-0.79%与 0.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 ...

Group 1: New World Order and Global Bull Market - The chief investment strategist at Bank of America, Hartnett, believes that Trump is driving global fiscal expansion, leading to a "New World Order = New World Bull Market" scenario [1][2] - Hartnett suggests going long on international stocks as the market is shifting from U.S. exceptionalism to global rebalancing, with $1.6 trillion flowing into U.S. stock funds in the 2020s compared to only $0.4 trillion into global funds [2] - China is identified as the most promising market, with the end of deflation expected to catalyze bull markets in Japan and Europe [2] Group 2: Gold Bull Market - Hartnett emphasizes that the New World Order is not only fostering a stock bull market but also a gold bull market, despite short-term overbought conditions [3] - Gold was the best-performing asset in 2020, driven by factors such as war, populism, the end of globalization, excessive fiscal expansion, and debt devaluation [4] - The Federal Reserve and Trump’s administration are expected to increase quantitative easing liquidity by $600 billion through the purchase of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities by 2026 [5] - Gold has outperformed bonds and U.S. stocks over the past four years, and a higher allocation to gold remains reasonable, with historical bull markets averaging a 300% increase [6][7] Group 3: Economic Recovery Assets - In addition to gold, other assets are expected to benefit from the New World Bull Market, including mid-cap and small-cap stocks, homebuilders, retail, and transportation sectors [10] - Hartnett advises going long on "economic recovery" related assets while shorting large tech stocks until certain conditions are met, such as the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5% [11] - Historical precedent shows that Nixon's price and wage freeze improved living costs and boosted his approval ratings, suggesting that if Trump fails to improve his ratings, risks for midterm elections will increase [15] Group 4: Risks from East Asian Currency Appreciation - The biggest risk identified is the rapid appreciation of the yen, won, and new Taiwan dollar, which could trigger global liquidity tightening [1][16] - The yen is currently trading near 160, at its weakest level against the yuan since 1992, and a rapid appreciation could reverse capital flows from Asia [16] - Hartnett warns that investors should closely monitor indicators like the "yen up, MOVE index up" risk aversion combination to determine when to exit the market [16]