基本面： 美指图表 白银图表： 周三（2月4日）亚市白银早盘市场窄幅震荡，没有行情波动目前继续观望为主，最新报85.00美元/盎司，目前基本面，昨日贵金属反弹不仅提振了贵金属市 场，白银价格也同步跳涨7.5%至85.01美元/盎司，结束了上周五27%暴跌和周一6%下跌的颓势。分析师普遍认为，这次上涨标志着黄金长期牛市的回归，背 后的驱动因素包括美联储政策预期、地缘政治紧张以及美元走势的微妙变化。 黄金价格的这次暴涨并非凭空而来，而是市场在消化近期剧烈波动后的自然反应。上周，黄金市场经历了剧烈的过山车行情，主要源于美联储主席人选的变 动。特朗普总统提名Kevin Warsh（凯文·沃什）接替将于5月卸任的鲍威尔，这一消息一度引发投资者对美联储政策的重新评估。Warsh以其鹰派背景闻名， 尤其在通胀控制和资产负债表管理上持强硬态度，他曾在《华尔街日报》撰文批评美联储庞大的资产持有量扭曲了金融体系，并主张大幅缩减。这导致市场 预期美联储可能在支持降息的同时收紧资产负债表，进一步推高了芝商所对贵金属期货的保证金要求，直接施压金价回落。然而，周二的反弹显示出投资者 迅速调整了心态，低位买盘蜂拥而入。 这次下跌只是长期上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月3日｜中信建投财富管理发文指出，回溯布雷顿森林体系瓦解后全球黄金市场的发展历程，可 以看到黄金每一轮大的上涨行情之后，都会出现不同程度、不同时长的调整。 1996-1999年：1996年2 月国际金价触及420美元/盎司的阶段性高点，1999年7月金价跌至253美元/盎司的阶段性低位，调整持 续时间约42个月，调整幅度约40%左右。当时，全球经济处于高速增长期，尤其是美国互联网经济崛 起，带动全球经济复苏，避险需求低迷。这一轮调整结束后，黄金在2000年开启了新一轮长达十年的牛 市，而央行售金的行为也在2000年后逐步减少，甚至部分央行开始增持黄金，成为后续黄金上涨的重要 支撑因素。2011-2015年：2011年9月国际金价触及1923美元/盎司的阶段性高点，2015年11月金价跌至 1045美元/盎司的阶段性低位，调整持续时间约51个月，调整幅度约43%左右。这一轮调整的核心驱动 力是美联储量化宽松政策的退出预期，叠加全球经济逐步复苏、避险需求降温等。 2022-2023年：2022 年3月国际金价触及2078美元/盎司的阶段性高点，2023年11月金价跌至1618美元/盎司 ...

Economic Growth and Investment - The GDP growth for the year 2025 is projected at 5.0%, achieving the annual economic growth target, characterized by a "high first, low second" structure and stronger external demand compared to internal demand [2] - In December 2025, industrial production accelerated, particularly in new momentum sectors such as pharmaceuticals, specialized equipment, and computer communications [2] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline throughout 2025, recording negative growth, but is expected to rebound in 2026 due to new policy financial tools and increased special bond investments [2] Consumer and Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by increased food prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also turned positive, supported by improved supply-demand order from "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to a new low for 2023, but service consumption showed improvement, indicating a potential bottoming out of certain consumer goods [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal revenue saw a significant decline at year-end, with major tax categories dropping, while fiscal expenditure decreased at a slower rate [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level of 4.0%, ensuring that expenditure efforts will not diminish [3] - The central bank announced a reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanded their scope, indicating ongoing targeted support for key sectors [3] External Environment and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January, aligning with expectations, while continuing its asset purchase program [4] - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally in January, with emerging markets performing particularly well, and A-share indices all rising [4] - The bond market is expected to remain stable under conditions of liquidity easing and policy support, with certain bonds still holding investment value [5]

Industry Overview - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its weak performance in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, with demand likely to remain subdued and production to contract, leading to slight fluctuations in steel prices [2][17][18] - In the copper sector, production activities on both supply and demand sides are anticipated to be affected by the Spring Festival, resulting in continued inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to post-holiday demand verification and geopolitical developments [2][32] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight contraction in production, with sufficient supply of bauxite from Guinea. Post-holiday production recovery in alumina and electrolytic aluminum plants may support alumina prices [3][41] - Gold prices are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic political uncertainties in the U.S. [3][51] Steel Sector - The steel PMI index for January 2026 is reported at 49.9%, indicating continued contraction but a slowdown in the rate of decline, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [17] - In December 2025, the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 98,600 tons, down 1.81% month-on-month and 10.95% year-on-year [18] - The total crude steel production for December 2025 was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% [19] Copper Sector - China's electrolytic copper production in January increased by 0.10% month-on-month and 16.32% year-on-year, with a total production of 1.326 million tons in December 2025 [32][33] - The LME copper inventory rose by 18.69% to 175,000 tons, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 91.81% to 156,900 tons during the same period [33][40] Aluminum Sector - The production of metallurgical-grade alumina in January 2026 decreased by 1.78% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with total production at 8.011 million tons in December 2025 [41][42] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in December 2025 was 3.874 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.87% [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 13.28% to $4,907.50 per ounce from December 31, 2025, to January 30, 2026, while silver prices rose by 20.10% to $85.25 per ounce during the same period [51][52] Lithium and Cobalt - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 32.08% to 158,500 yuan per ton, while the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 64.58% to 158,000 yuan per ton [53] - The average price of 1 cobalt decreased by 4.99% to 447,000 yuan per ton during the reporting period [65] Rare Earths - The report notes a recovery in the supply of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 23.41% to 748,500 yuan per ton [73]

在2月3日（周二），沪锌主力合约低开震荡后反弹遇阻，盘面继续承压。截至10：15分休盘，报价定格 在每吨25095元，下跌65元，跌幅仅为0.26%。长江有色金属数据显示，长江现货0#锌价报25070元/吨， 单日涨80元/吨；1#锌价报24970元/吨，同样单日涨80元/吨，这期现背离，进一步证明了期货市场仍在 宏观空头势力主导，让锌价的走势更加扑朔迷离。 宏观"风暴眼"：政策迷雾与经济变数 当下，宏观层面的种种因素就像一场暴风雨，无情地冲击着锌价这艘小船。市场所有目光都聚焦在被提 名人沃什身上，他就像一位神秘的舵手，其真实政策立场牵动着每一个投资者的心。他究竟会延续提名 时展现的"鸽派"降息倾向，为市场带来一丝温暖与宽松；还是回归早期"鹰派"作风，让市场感受到紧缩 的压力？尤其是他如何协调"降息"言论与"缩减资产负债表"的主张，更是成为了市场猜测的焦点。一旦 他释放出实质性收紧金融条件的信号，锌价这艘小船在短期内恐怕将面临狂风暴雨的侵袭，价格被压制 在低位难以动弹。 再把目光转向美国经济这片海洋。近期美国制造业虽有反弹的迹象，就像海面上偶尔泛起的浪花，看似 充满生机，但贸易政策不确定性引发的悲观情绪，以及 ...

Group 1 - Global panic selling has swept the precious metals market, with silver prices dropping by 34.67% from over $110/oz to $75.38/oz, and gold prices falling by 12.41% from $5400/oz to $4709.68/oz [1] - As of the market close, spot gold was reported at $4880.034/oz, down 9.25%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 1, 1980 [4] - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq down 1.22%, the Dow Jones down over 1%, and the S&P 500 down 0.92% [5] Group 2 - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, shifting market focus to his monetary policy stance and the independence of the Fed [5] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 50 to 100 basis points over the next year, which could influence gold prices [5] - Despite the current volatility, analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggest that the gold bull market may not be over, as the Fed's policies and U.S. economic conditions continue to evolve [6] Group 3 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced adjustments to its personal gold accumulation business, implementing limit management for transactions on non-trading days starting February 7, 2026 [6][7] - China Construction Bank (CCB) also announced an increase in the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation plans to 1500 yuan, effective February 2, 2026 [7] Group 4 - Retail gold stores generally do not accept returns after purchase, while online platforms have varying return policies, often not allowing returns for investment gold products [9][13] - Some brands have specific return policies for gold jewelry, allowing returns within 24-48 hours under certain conditions, while others impose fees for returns [11][13] - Legal interpretations indicate that gold jewelry and bars purchased in physical stores are generally not subject to a 7-day no-reason return policy, aligning with consumer protection laws [13]

Group 1 - The copper price has been pressured by profit-taking and speculative selling, with LME copper closing down 1.3% at $12,900 per ton, a decrease of $171, and trading volume down by 2,065 contracts [1] - The Shanghai copper futures market also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 100,820 yuan per ton, down 1.01% [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, reflecting a 0.17% decline [1] Group 2 - The significant drop in copper prices on February 2 was primarily due to market reactions to the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, raising concerns about liquidity tightening [2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI in the U.S. rebounded to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [2] - In China, the manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, boosting market confidence and driving a rebound in copper prices [2] Group 3 - Supply shortages are expected to persist due to overseas mine shutdowns, while domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to decline, indicating tight supply conditions [3] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises, leading to increased social inventory [3] - The market is currently dominated by a bearish sentiment, with concerns over demand and inventory accumulation exerting downward pressure on copper prices [3]

【ccmn.cn摘要】国际油价大跌且市场厌恶情绪弥漫，隔夜伦锌续跌 1.53%；贵金属断崖式下跌致有色 多数品种跌停，沪锌跟跌，现货需求弱、加工企业将放假，今现锌或下跌。 基本面方面，2月锌市供需双弱。炼厂减停产叠加自然日减少，精炼锌月度产量环比减少约5万吨。锌矿 周期性供给增加正逐步落地，但受海外炼厂减产影响，矿端增产向冶炼端放量的传导节奏放缓。国内部 分锌矿冬季停产，近期华中、华北、西南地区均有锌矿进入检修，国内锌矿供应仍偏紧，锌精矿加工费 承压，制约精炼锌产出。需求端相对平稳，以存量需求为主，但临近春节，沪锌下游消费低迷。上期所 库存数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，周度锌锭库存为6.52万吨，较1月23日下降7997吨，显示消费仍具 韧性。不过，本周下游镀锌行业开工率明显下滑，企业陆续进入春节放假模式，采买需求进一步回落， 社会库存显著增加。 综合来看，市场担忧新任美联储主席的政策路径，叠加美国政府面临再次关门风险，恐慌情绪持续笼罩 锌市，价格继续承压。此外，投机客和基金撤离市场，且前期锌价大幅上涨缺乏供需基本面充分支撑， 宏观层面稍有风吹草动，价格便波动不定。淡季及春节放假导致消费低迷，现货交投清 ...

前言： 黄金技术面分析：黄金从上周到昨天最低跳水至4400一线之后，今天开盘慢涨，截止当前再度回升至 4800上方，整体来看这是这两天跌幅后的首次回升，而在快速上涨之后被这轮下跌消化之后，黄金上涨 的势头还会持续，当前的下跌可以看做是情绪和获利了结的必经之路，但并不是趋势的终结，这点需要 注意！截至到目前黄金反弹至4855，相当于这波黄金前期的1200多美金上涨了455美金，收复了三分之 一空间，很明显，现在技术面的底部基础已经完成，本周再继续看反弹空间，节奏上，要从反弹看到筑 底，从筑底再看到上涨，再从上涨等待大趋势爆发。本次抄底是否成功，就看今天的市场表现！ 2025年的黄金市场，既有数字增长的收获，更领悟了"顺势而为、坚守本心"的智慧。市场不缺机会，缺 的是看透本质的认知与抗波动的定力，这份收获是对理性判断与长期主义的最好印证。2026，新一年， 带着沉淀继续稳步前行即可。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（2月3日）亚市早盘时段，现货黄金震荡上行，现交投于每盎司4820美元附近，日内涨幅约 3.1%。金价在经历剧烈波动后于亚洲时段小幅修复，价格回升至4820美元附近，但 ...