Group 1 - International precious metals market experienced a decline, with silver dropping nearly 2% [1] - As of the close on August 19, 2025 December gold futures fell by $19.1, settling at $3358.9 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The market is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a short-term adjustment in precious metal positions [1][2] Group 2 - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, closing at 98.265, which negatively impacted the precious metals market [2] - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is approaching, with market participants keenly awaiting Powell's policy signals [2] - UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the US and strong investment demand [2] Group 3 - September silver futures closed down by $0.735, settling at $37.330 per ounce, a decline of 1.93% [3] - December silver futures also fell by $0.74, closing at $37.820 per ounce, a decrease of 1.92% [3]

当地时间周二，受多家知名芯片制造商股价大跌拖累，美股市场走弱，纳指跌幅明显。截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，报44922.27点；纳指跌1.46%，报 21314.95点；标普500指数0.59%，报6411.37点。接下来，全球央行官员将参加美联储一年一度的经济研讨会，市场正等待美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲 话，以洞悉美联储政策的未来走向。 此外，据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月19日，美国商务部宣布，将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝关税清单，适用税率为50%。 纳指大幅下挫 当地时间周二，美股三大指数涨跌不一，多家知名芯片制造商股价大跌拖累标普500及纳指。截至收盘，道指涨10.45点，涨幅0.02%，报44922.27点；纳 指跌314.82点，跌幅1.46%，报21314.95点；标普500指数跌37.78点，跌幅0.59%，报6411.37点。 大型科技股多数下跌，AMD跌超5%，英伟达跌超3%，创4月21日以来最大单日跌幅；奈飞、Meta跌逾2%，特斯拉、微软、亚马逊跌超1%，苹果、谷歌 小幅下跌。英特尔逆势大涨约7%，消息面上，日本软银集团和英特尔公司此前联合宣布，软银将向英特尔投资20亿美元，以每股23美元 ...

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a decline, with silver dropping nearly 2% [1] - As of the close on August 19, 2025 December gold futures fell by $19.1, settling at $3358.9 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% [1] - The market is cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a repositioning in the short-term precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.1%, closing at 98.265, which negatively impacted the precious metals market [1] - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is approaching, with market participants keenly awaiting Powell's policy signals [1] - UBS raised its gold price target for March 2026 by $100 to $3600 per ounce, citing ongoing macroeconomic risks in the U.S., declining dollar usage, and strong investment demand [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September closed down by $0.735, at $37.330 per ounce, a decline of 1.93% [2] - December silver futures also fell by $0.74, closing at $37.820 per ounce, a decrease of 1.92% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Group 1 - The core view is that the robustness of the U.S. labor market is now in question following the downward revision of employment data for May and June by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest consecutive downward revision outside of the pandemic period [1] - The newly reported job additions for May and June were both below 20,000, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy direction [1] - The initial baseline forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025, but any further signs of weakness in the labor market or economy could lead to an earlier interest rate cut cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy remains undecided, leading to uncertainty in the copper market as the traditional peak season "Golden September and Silver October" approaches [1] Group 1 - The upcoming peak season is expected to influence copper prices, which are currently experiencing high volatility [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring whether the current price fluctuations will stabilize or break out of the existing range [1]

回顾7月的政策会议，鲍威尔主席着重强调，需要给予更多时间来审慎评估特朗普所推行的关税政策对 通胀走势以及整体经济实力究竟会产生怎样的影响。面对记者提问时，他坦言，要精准厘清关税的具体 效应，尚有漫长的道路要走，并形象地表述"目前仍处于非常早期的阶段"。同时，他明确指出，通货膨 胀依旧是美联储在履行稳定物价与实现最大就业这双重使命过程中必须权衡的重要考量因素。他还提 到："当前的经济表现并未显示出受到美联储政策的负面冲击，由此可见现行政策是较为适宜的。不 过，也需警惕劳动力市场存在下行的潜在风险。" 摘要今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3333.95美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看空走势。 今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3333.95美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向看空走势。 【要闻速递】 在 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market ended the week with fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly rising by 0.08% to 44,946.12 points, after reaching a record high of 45,203.52 points during the day [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.29% to approximately 6,449.80 points, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.4% to 21,622.98 points [1] - Healthcare stocks led the gains, with UnitedHealth surging over 11.98% due to Berkshire Hathaway's increased stake, contributing to the Dow's rise [1] - Semiconductor equipment stocks faced pressure, with Applied Materials (AMAT) dropping 14% after disappointing earnings, while Intel rose 2.93% on news of potential government investment [1] Economic Data - The US Commerce Department reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, slightly below expectations, but June's data was revised up to 0.9%, indicating consumer resilience [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August fell to an initial value of 58.6, below the expected 62, while year-end inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, reflecting growing concerns about price increases [3] - The Federal Reserve reported a 0.1% month-over-month decline in overall industrial output for July, suggesting slight weakness in manufacturing activity [3] Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska lasted over two and a half hours, with both leaders expressing a desire for improved relations and potential agreements [2] - Wall Street is closely monitoring geopolitical events, as the market is currently sensitive to potential disturbances that could lead to volatility [2] Upcoming Events - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is scheduled for August 21-23, with a focus on the labor market and macroeconomic policy, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to deliver significant remarks that could influence market trends [4][5]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing volatility around the 3700-point level, which is considered a "no man's land" where profit-taking can lead to significant declines [1][4] - Historical comparisons show that previous bull markets have seen substantial pullbacks after reaching similar index levels, indicating potential for further fluctuations [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly from previous peaks, with current expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the tightening seen in 2021 [7][9] Group 2 - Domestic savings have increased significantly, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization rising from 1.18 in January 2021 to 1.73 in July 2025, suggesting that there is still room for market growth [9] - Sector performance varies, with some industries like telecommunications and transportation showing strong gains, while others like food and beverage have underperformed compared to previous bull markets [12][13][15] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.78, which is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting caution for investors [16][19] - The performance of major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext shows that while some sectors have seen growth, overall earnings have not kept pace with rising valuations, raising concerns about sustainability [22][24] Group 4 - Recent trading activity indicates a strong preference for technology and renewable energy sectors, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and solar energy, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods lag behind [43][50] - The market is characterized by a high degree of differentiation, making stock selection more challenging than in previous bull markets, with a recommendation for investors to consider broad-based indices for exposure [34][39]

北京时间8月15日，国际黄金价格在高位附近出现回调，现货黄金交投在每盎司3333.50美元左右，较前 一交易日有所下跌。周四的下行压力主要来自美国通胀数据的意外走高，以及劳动力市场的持续韧性。 DLSM外汇平台认为这两个因素推升了美元与美债收益率，从而削弱了市场对美联储下月大幅降息的预 期。 目前的黄金市场更像是一次耐心与信念的考验。多头需要等待数据的转折点，而空头则寄望于美元与美 债收益率的持续攀升。在这种不确定性中，分批布局、保持仓位灵活，或许比盲目追涨杀跌更为稳妥。 毕竟，金价的下一个方向，仍取决于宏观数据给出的答案。 市场的反应并非仅限于黄金。白银价格同样承压，现货银跌幅达到1.3%，收于每盎司37.97美元。而铂 金和钯金则表现相对坚挺，分别上涨1.1%和2%。这种分化反映出不同贵金属在工业用途与投资避险功 能上的权重差异：铂金和钯金更多与汽车制造和工业需求挂钩，对美元波动的敏感度低于黄金和白银。 短期来看，黄金市场的多空博弈正在进入一个微妙阶段。一方面，宏观经济仍面临放缓压力，地缘局势 也未完全平息，这为黄金提供了中长期支撑。另一方面，美国的经济数据却一次次展示出韧性，尤其是 在通胀与就业指标上， ...