Core Viewpoint - The company reported Q1 performance with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 1% quarter-on-quarter but a significant decrease of 41% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, up 9% quarter-on-quarter but down 82% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q1 automotive gross margin was 19.8%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase in both metrics, with total vehicle sales reaching 93,000 units, up 16% quarter-on-quarter but down 41% year-on-year [1] - The company’s overall gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, with automotive gross margin at 19.8%, showing a slight increase of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) and gross profit per vehicle were 266,000 yuan and 53,000 yuan respectively, down 11.9% and 10.0% year-on-year, and down 1.1% and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The company demonstrated improved cost control with SG&A and R&D expense ratios at 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% and 2.2% [2] - The company expects to continue enhancing quality and efficiency in Q2, with projected deliveries of 123,000 to 128,000 units and revenue between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan [2] Product Development - Recent launches of the L series and MEGA smart driving models have been smooth, with the MEGA Home version performing well, enhancing expectations for the company's electric vehicle strategy [2] - The company plans to launch the i8 and i6 models in H2 2025, with the i8 featuring a 5C battery and a range of 720 km, which is expected to alleviate range anxiety for users [2] Technological Advancements - The introduction of the Thor-U chip in the L series and MEGA models enhances computational power, and the company is accelerating its self-developed chip initiatives [3] - The existing dual-system architecture will be upgraded to the VLA driver model in July 2025, which is expected to improve generalization capabilities and enhance autonomous driving features [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting GAAP net profits of 10.3 billion, 15.8 billion, and 17.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with Non-GAAP net profits of 13 billion, 18.6 billion, and 20.8 billion yuan [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 140.34 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating based on a 21x PE for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of 25.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 82%, aligning with expectations [1] - The company is expected to continue improving quality and efficiency, with a projected Q2 delivery of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles and revenue of 32.5 to 33.8 billion RMB [2] - The launch of new electric models, particularly the i8, is anticipated to enhance sales performance, with expectations of over 5,000 units in steady monthly sales [3] - The introduction of the Thor-U chip in new models is expected to enhance computing power and reduce costs in autonomous driving hardware [4] - The company forecasts GAAP net profits of 10.3 billion, 15.8 billion, and 17.8 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with a target price adjustment to 140.34 HKD based on a 21x PE for 2025 [5][13] Financial Summary - The company expects revenues of 123.9 billion RMB in 2023, growing to 250.2 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.97% [7] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from 8.0 billion RMB in 2024 to 17.8 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [7] - The report highlights a gross margin of 20.5% for Q1 2025, with an automotive gross margin of 19.8%, reflecting improved cost control [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported record high revenue and adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and IOT segments, alongside a strategic focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1112.93 billion, a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 106.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 64.5% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 28.4% [1] - Overall gross margin stood at 22.8%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] Business Segments - The smartphone and AIOT segment generated revenue of 927.13 billion, a year-over-year increase of 22.8% [1] - The smart electric vehicle and AI innovation segment achieved revenue of 185.80 billion [1] - IOT business revenue surged to 323.39 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of 58.7% and contributing 29.1% to total revenue [2] - Internet services revenue reached 90.76 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 12.8% [2] Market Position - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 41.8 million units in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, maintaining a global market share of 14.1% [2] - In mainland China, Xiaomi regained the top position in smartphone shipments with a market share of 18.8% [2] R&D and Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 2000 billion over the next five years in core technology development [3] - R&D expenditure for Q1 2025 was 67 billion, a year-over-year increase of 30.1% [3] - The launch of self-developed 3nm flagship SoC chip and the open-sourcing of the Xiaomi MiMo model are significant advancements [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to benefit from its brand recognition and supply chain advantages, with projections for revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [4] - Forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5062.65 billion, 6052.13 billion, and 7008.88 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 357.09 billion, 457.75 billion, and 598.89 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] - The target price is set at HKD 71.20 [8][9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of RMB 111.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [1] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 114% year-on-year to RMB 9.96 billion [1] - The IoT and automotive business showed strong gross margins, with the IoT revenue growing by 58.7% year-on-year to RMB 32.3 billion [2] - The automotive segment's gross margin improved to 23.2%, benefiting from increased scale [3] - The smartphone average selling price (ASP) reached a record high of RMB 1,211, with a gross margin of 12.4% [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 111.3 billion, a 47% increase year-on-year [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 9.96 billion, up 114% year-on-year [1] - IoT revenue reached RMB 32.3 billion, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Automotive Business - The company delivered 75,869 units of the SU7 series in Q1 [3] - The automotive segment reported a gross margin of 23.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - The first SUV, YU7, is expected to launch in July 2025, with a focus on consumer feedback post-launch [3] Smartphone Segment - The smartphone ASP reached RMB 1,211, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase [4] - The smartphone business maintained a gross margin of 12.4% [4] - The launch of self-developed chips is anticipated to enhance the company's high-end market share [4] Valuation and Future Outlook - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting the growth potential in IoT and automotive sectors [5][17] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 40.99 billion, with a projected growth rate of 50.06% [7][15] - The report anticipates a continued increase in IoT revenue, projecting a 24% year-on-year growth for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] - The target price is set at HKD 71.20 [8][9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of RMB 111.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [1] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 114% year-on-year to RMB 9.96 billion [1] - The IoT and automotive business showed strong gross margins, with the smartphone ASP reaching a record high [1] - The launch of self-developed chips is seen as a significant step for the brand in expanding its ecosystem [1] Summary by Sections IoT and Consumer Products - In Q1 2025, IoT and consumer products revenue grew by 58.7% year-on-year to RMB 32.3 billion, with a gross margin of 25.2% [2] - The growth is attributed to the rapid expansion of large home appliances, which saw a revenue increase of 113.8% year-on-year [2] - The forecast for the IoT business is a 24% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, with an adjusted gross margin prediction of 23.8% [2] Automotive Business - The automotive division reported a gross margin of 23.2%, exceeding previous forecasts [3] - The company delivered 75,869 units of the SU7 series in Q1, although the division incurred an operating loss of RMB 500 million [3] - The first SUV, YU7, is expected to launch in July 2025, with consumer feedback being a key focus [3] Smartphone Business - The smartphone ASP for Q1 2025 was RMB 1,211, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase [4] - The smartphone business maintained a gross margin of 12.4%, reflecting stability despite a weak overall market [4] - The introduction of self-developed chips is anticipated to enhance the company's market share in the high-end smartphone segment [4] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 495.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 35.3% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach RMB 40.99 billion in 2025, representing a 50.1% increase [7] - The report adjusts the non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2027 to RMB 41.0 billion, RMB 51.3 billion, and RMB 63.2 billion respectively [5] Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assuming a long-term exchange rate of HKD to RMB at 0.92 [17] - The valuation reflects a 41x PE ratio for the 2025 forecast [17] - The smartphone and IoT business is valued at HKD 44.9 per share, while the automotive business is valued at HKD 26.3 per share [19]

公司研究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 智能手机出货份额重回国内第一，单季营收&经调整净利润再创新高 ——小米集团（1810.HK）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 1Q25 业绩，实现收入 1113 亿元，同比增长 47.4%，创下 单季度历史新高并连续两个季度营收超千亿元；Non-IFRS 净利润达 107 亿 元，同比增长 64.5%，净利率提升至 9.6%，盈利能力显著改善。 1Q25 小米手机出货连续 19 个季度稳居全球前三，国内市场高端机出货占比 提升至 25%。1)出货量方面， 1Q25 小米手机全球出货同比增长 3%至 4180 万台，其中中国市场表现亮眼，1Q25 小米在中国大陆出货市占率 18.8%， 同比提升 4.7pct、时隔十年重回第一，中国出货同比增速 40%，远超行业增 速（1Q25 中国智能手机市场出货 yoy+5%）2)ASP 方面， 1Q25 小米手机 ASP 提升至 1211 元，yoy+5.8%/qoq+0.7%，主要受益于国补+高 ASP 的国 内出货占比提升。3)毛利率方面，1Q25 手机业务毛利率 12.4%，较 4Q24 的 12.0%环比提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 67.9, indicating a potential upside of 29.28% from the current price of HKD 52.50 [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of RMB 111.3 billion for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%, surpassing market expectations of RMB 109 billion. The overall gross margin improved to 22.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit reached RMB 10.9 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 161.0%, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10.7 billion, up 64.5%, exceeding market expectations of RMB 9.1 billion [2]. - The company aims to invest RMB 200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030 to strengthen its technological moat, with a focus on AI and chip technology, expecting to invest RMB 7.5 billion in AI this year [2]. - The smartphone segment saw revenue of RMB 50.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with a market share of 18.8%, marking a return to the top position in domestic smartphone shipments after ten years. The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones increased by 5.8% to RMB 1,211 [3]. - The Internet of Things (IoT) segment experienced explosive growth, with revenue increasing by 58.7% to RMB 32.3 billion, and a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The automotive business reported revenue of RMB 18.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.2%, and a significant reduction in operating losses, with the new luxury SUV model YU7 receiving positive market feedback [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 495.6 billion, RMB 627.0 billion, and RMB 721.4 billion, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be RMB 45.6 billion, RMB 57.8 billion, and RMB 70.2 billion for the same years [6][7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 21.21% in 2023 to 23.33% by 2027, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and product mix [13]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 0.69 in 2023 to RMB 2.61 in 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [7][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Xiaomi Group [6] Core Views - Xiaomi Group achieved record revenue of 1112.93 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [2] - The company continues to advance its all-ecosystem strategy, with significant growth in IOT and automotive sectors, contributing to overall revenue growth [2][3] - The company is investing 200 billion RMB over the next five years to deepen its core technology capabilities, including the launch of its self-developed 3nm flagship SoC chip [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit reached 106.76 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 9.6% [2][3] - The IOT business generated revenue of 323.39 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 58.7%, with a gross margin of 25.2% [3] - The smartphone segment reported revenue of 506.12 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 8.9%, with a gross margin of 12.4% [3] - The automotive segment achieved revenue of 185.80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2% [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5062.65 billion RMB, 6052.13 billion RMB, and 7008.88 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 357.09 billion RMB, 457.75 billion RMB, and 598.89 billion RMB [4][5] - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 35 for 2025, decreasing to 21 by 2027 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a record revenue of 1112.93 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 47.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.1% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit reached 106.76 billion RMB, up 64.5% year-over-year and 28.4% quarter-over-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 9.6% [2][3] - The company is focusing on its all-ecosystem strategy, which includes smartphones, AI, and IoT, contributing to robust growth across its business segments [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - The smartphone and AIoT segment generated revenue of 927.13 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 22.8% [2] - The IoT business saw revenue of 323.39 billion RMB, up 58.7% year-over-year, driven by a doubling of income from smart home appliances [3] - The automotive segment generated 185.80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.2%, despite a quarterly operating loss of 5 billion RMB [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5062.65 billion RMB, 6052.13 billion RMB, and 7008.88 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same years are projected at 357.09 billion RMB, 457.75 billion RMB, and 598.89 billion RMB [4] - The report anticipates a decrease in P/E ratios from 35 in 2025 to 21 in 2027, indicating potential growth in profitability [4] Research and Development - The company plans to invest 200 billion RMB in core technology over the next five years, with R&D spending reaching 67 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a 30.1% increase year-over-year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) with a target price of 71.20 HKD [11][33]. Core Insights - The self-developed chips represent a significant milestone for Xiaomi and the Chinese semiconductor design industry, impacting business operations, financial metrics, and market dynamics [1]. - Xiaomi's self-research in chips is a crucial step for brand manufacturers to build an independent ecosystem, similar to Apple's established ecosystem [2][12]. - Self-developed chips are expected to help Xiaomi and other brands expand their market share in the high-end smartphone segment, where Xiaomi currently holds only 6% of the market for phones priced above 4000 RMB [3][14]. - The chip business will likely increase R&D expenses initially, which may suppress gross margins before improving them as production scales up [4][19]. - Xiaomi's self-developed chips could disrupt the third-party smartphone chip market, enhancing its bargaining power with suppliers [5][26]. - The company emphasizes a consumer-oriented strategy to minimize policy risks, focusing on legal compliance and brand competitiveness [6][28]. - Future chip developments may include 5G baseband and smart cockpit chips, indicating a strategic evolution from consumer to industrial applications [7][30]. Summary by Sections Chip Development Impact - Self-research in chips is essential for building a competitive ecosystem, akin to Apple's model [2][12]. - Xiaomi's market share in high-end smartphones is significantly lower than competitors, indicating room for growth through self-developed chips [3][14]. Financial Implications - R&D expenses have risen from 5.8 billion RMB in 2018 to an expected 24 billion RMB in 2024, with R&D as a percentage of revenue increasing from 3% to 7% [4][19]. - Initial gross margins may decline due to high fixed costs associated with chip design, but long-term improvements are anticipated as production scales [4][19]. Market Dynamics - Xiaomi's self-developed chips could lead to a contraction in the third-party chip market, enhancing its competitive position [5][26]. - The company is the largest smartphone chip purchaser globally, indicating significant market influence [5][26]. Strategic Focus - Xiaomi's commitment to a consumer-focused strategy aims to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges [6][28]. - Future chip initiatives may target advanced applications, such as 5G and automotive technologies, reflecting a broader strategic vision [7][30].