虽然今年一段时间以来表现疲软，但近期，美债交易员对美联储降息乐观预期压过了对财政赤字的担 忧，美债有望迎来2020年来最佳年度表现。 然而，从美联储降息前景，到政府重新开门公布数据后带来的短期动荡，以及美国信贷市场热掩盖的投 资者风险溢价不足，都可能成为本轮美债涨势的威胁。 特朗普政府助力美债市场近期涨势 在美联储持续降息后，就业增长和消费支出正在放缓。虽然美联储官员近期分歧的表态令美股市场承 压，但美债市场仍在押注美联储进一步降息，且认为即使美国经济陷入衰退，也不会威胁到企业的资产 负债表。此外，美债投资者认为，尽管美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价，但通胀压力仍在持续缓 和。 在美国政府重开之前，数据的有限性或限制美债的波动性，更倾向于窄幅波动。"他称，"与此同时，下 一任美联储主席的遴选取得进展，目前候选人减少至5人。无论是哪位当选，其政策主张都偏鸽派，我 们仍然认为货币政策宽松的可能性更高，或将带来美债利率的下行。" Badgley Phelps财富管理公司的固定收益经理斯普戈（Cal Spranger）则透露："我这段时间作为债券经理 参加了多场客户会议，而过去几年，我始终没有被邀请参加任何活动。尽 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is experiencing its best performance since 2020, driven by multiple favorable factors including Federal Reserve rate cuts, moderate economic slowdown, and easing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has achieved a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, marking a potential best annual performance since 2020 [1]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 0.5 percentage points this year, closing at 4.149% last Friday [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have become the core driver of the bond market's rise, as bonds issued at higher rates become more valuable when market expectations shift towards lower rates [2]. - The labor market cooling has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, with the possibility of further cuts [2]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - Despite concerns over the U.S. budget deficit impacting yields, the decline in interest rates has largely overshadowed these worries [6]. - The U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected at $1.8 trillion, remaining stable compared to 2024, which could pose future challenges for the bond market [9]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the continuation of favorable conditions, believing that despite rising uncertainties, there is still room for further rate declines [9]. - The additional yield spread of investment-grade corporate bonds relative to Treasuries fell to 0.72 percentage points in September, the lowest since the late 1990s, indicating potential overvaluation in the corporate bond market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence between new and old economies in both China and the United States, highlighting the impact of AI on investment and employment, as well as the implications for financial markets and economic stability moving into 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Divergence - The global economy is experiencing a structural change characterized by the rapid growth of AI-driven high-tech industries, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumption face challenges [4][6]. - In the U.S., the "three highs" (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) are pressuring the economy and leading to a decline in corporate profits and economic activity [17][20]. - China's economy is supported by record trade surpluses and fiscal deficits in 2025, but these factors are expected to face constraints in 2026, potentially weakening economic support [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Global fiscal policies are under increasing constraints, necessitating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies to alleviate debt interest pressures [4][6]. - The article anticipates that both the U.S. and China will likely see limited fiscal policy enhancements, with a greater probability of accelerated monetary easing [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is reflecting the strength of the new economy, particularly in AI-related sectors, while the bond market is indicative of the weakening traditional economy [6][8]. - The article suggests that the bond bull market is more certain compared to the stock bull market, as bond yields are expected to decline significantly by the end of 2026 [4][6]. Group 4: Real Estate and Investment Trends - In China, the real estate sector continues to experience downward pressure, with new construction and sales areas declining, which is expected to impact overall economic growth [94][97]. - The article notes that the investment growth rate in real estate has reached historical lows, indicating a significant drag on the economy [97][99]. - The new economy in China, while showing some breakthroughs, still constitutes a small portion of the overall economy, with traditional sectors remaining dominant [91][93].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" to Americans funded by tariff revenues, amidst declining support and recent electoral losses for the Republican Party [3][5]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump's plan aims to provide $2,000 to Americans, excluding high-income individuals, funded by tariff revenues [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that implementing this plan could lead to a fiscal loss exceeding twice the tariff revenue, which is insufficient to support such large-scale payouts [4][8]. - The proposal has been made twice in 2023, indicating Trump's focus on improving his public image [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The CRFB estimates that distributing $2,000 to all Americans would result in an annual expenditure of approximately $600 billion, while the federal tariff revenue for the fiscal year was only $195 billion [8]. - If limited to 150 million adults earning less than $100,000 annually, the total payout would still reach around $300 billion, far exceeding the tariff income [8]. - Historical data suggests that large cash distributions could trigger inflation, as seen during the pandemic when stimulus checks contributed to a 40-year high inflation rate [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year [11]. - The CRFB warns that annual implementation of the dividend could increase the deficit by $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected revenue from Trump's tariffs [11]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the remaining revenue may only support dividends every seven years [11]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent polls indicate a decline in Trump's support, with a net approval rating of -18%, and significant dissatisfaction regarding his handling of inflation and economic issues [14]. - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the government shutdown [14]. - Economic analysts suggest that the current market conditions are precarious, with potential risks of recession or renewed inflation [15].

若该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。 在支持率下滑、共和党于地方选举中接连受挫之际，美国总统特朗普再度提出一项引人注目的计划：利用关税收 入向美国人发放2000美元的"分红"。 特朗普说明道，这一计划不覆盖"高收入"美国人。他还特别强调："反对关税的人都是傻瓜！" 这一承诺迅速引发广泛关注与质疑。11月10日，美国联邦预算责任委员会（CRFB）在一份分析报告中表示，若 该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。报告强调，关税收入本身远不足以支撑如此 大规模的分红支出，反而可能加剧美国本已严峻的财政压力。 值得注意的是，这已是特朗普今年内第二次提出类似主张。早在7月，他就曾表示政府正考虑利用任内征收的数十 亿美元关税向民众发放小额退款。 在这一政策提议背后，是特朗普对其公众形象的深切关注。英国新宏睿投资管理公司创始人兼董事总经理夏宇宸 在接受第一财经记者采访时表示："特朗普并不忌惮其他东西，他在意的是自己在美国民众心中的形象。他的权力 根基，很大程度上建立于其所展示的强有力姿态。" 最新民调数据显示，特朗普当前面临的舆论环境并不乐观。根据民调机构YouGov的数据，他 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute at least $2,000 to each American from tariff revenues raises concerns about economic risks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus checks [1][3]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump announced that the tariff revenue would provide $2,000 to each American citizen, excluding high-income individuals, and the remaining funds would be used to significantly pay down national debt [2][3]. - The proposal is reminiscent of the pandemic-era stimulus checks, where Trump previously pushed for increasing the amount from $600 to $2,000 [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The estimated total cost of the proposed "dividend" plan could reach $600 billion if designed similarly to the pandemic payments [4]. - Current U.S. tariff net revenue was $195 billion as of September, with projections of approximately $300 billion for the calendar year 2025, indicating that the proposed payments exceed the government's tariff revenue capacity [5]. Group 3: Legislative and Economic Challenges - Trump has not clarified how the $2,000 payments would be implemented or whether legislative approval would be sought, with experts noting that congressional approval is necessary [6]. - The proposal faces significant challenges, as the U.S. has not seen a federal budget surplus in over 20 years, and the current deficit is nearly $2 trillion [7]. Group 4: Legal and Alternative Considerations - The legality of Trump's tariff imposition is under review by the Supreme Court, which could impact the feasibility of the proposed payments [8]. - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it could take seven years to accumulate enough revenue to fund the proposed payments [9]. - An alternative suggestion from the Treasury Secretary indicated that the $2,000 could be reflected in tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, although this remains uncertain [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 to American citizens from tariff revenues raises concerns about economic risks similar to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus checks [2][3] Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump announced that the tariff revenues would be used to provide $2,000 to citizens, excluding high-income individuals, and the remaining funds would be allocated to significantly reduce national debt [2] - The proposal is reminiscent of the pandemic relief measures where Trump previously pushed for increasing stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000 [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The estimated cost of the proposed "dividend" plan could reach $600 billion, which exceeds the U.S. government's tariff revenue capacity [3] - As of September, the net tariff revenue for the U.S. government was $195 billion, with projections of $300 billion for the calendar year 2025 [3] Group 3: Legislative and Legal Challenges - The plan requires congressional approval, and there are concerns regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [4] - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it could take seven years to gather sufficient tariff revenue to fund the proposed payments [4] Group 4: Alternative Solutions - Treasury Secretary suggested that the $2,000 dividend might be implemented as tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, indicating uncertainty about the final form of the proposal [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge and subsequent decline in gold prices, suggesting that while gold has not yet reached its peak, it has moved past the explosive growth phase and should now be viewed more as a wealth protection tool rather than a high-return investment vehicle [6][29]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices skyrocketed from $3000 to $4000 per ounce within seven months, reaching a peak of $4398 on October 20, followed by a significant drop of 5.07% the next day, marking the largest single-day decline since its listing [2][6]. - Market sentiment has turned bearish, with approximately 52,000 put options accumulated in the $4000-$3900 range, indicating increased pessimism about gold's future performance [5]. Historical Context - The article highlights that gold prices tend to rise during periods of energy market turmoil or when energy costs are reassessed, as seen in historical instances from 1971-1980 and 2001-2011, where significant geopolitical events led to substantial increases in gold prices [10][13][16]. Central Bank Behavior - Central banks have shifted from being ordinary participants in the gold market to key players influencing pricing, with global central bank purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a structural change in gold's market dynamics [25][28]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, although the pace may become more flexible due to high gold prices [28]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing its appeal during times of uncertainty [25][26]. - The article notes that as geopolitical conflicts become the new norm, countries are increasing defense spending and stockpiling resources, which may lead to further monetary expansion and lower real interest rates, benefiting gold [23][24]. Investment Strategy - The article advises investors to view gold as a hedging tool against stock market risks rather than a high-yield investment, especially in light of the current market conditions where risk assets may offer better returns [29][31]. - It suggests that the best approach for investors is to adopt a "buy low" strategy and avoid chasing high prices, emphasizing that gold should be seen as a wealth preservation tool in volatile markets [31][32].

经济数据"断档"，消费者信心跌至两年低谷 受政府长期关门影响，关键经济数据发布陷入停滞，劳工部宣布无法按时公布10月就业报告，这已是该 报告连续第二次推迟。 缺少官方数据支撑，美联储、投资者与国际政策制定者只能依赖私人数据或估算，导致货币政策预测的 误差范围扩大，决策难度陡增。 更糟糕的是，消费者信心持续崩塌。密歇根大学11月初调查显示，消费者信心指数从10月的53.6点暴跌 至50.3点，创下2022年年中以来的最低值。 不同收入群体普遍担忧未来收入，支出意愿大幅收缩，对政府治理政策的怀疑情绪也日益加重。这种低 迷的消费预期，进一步拖累了美国国内经济的复苏节奏。 最高法院审查关税合法性，"关税墙"面临坍塌风险 这种冲击的本质是"连锁反应"：美国作为全球主要消费市场，其关税政策调整或需求收缩，直接导致依 赖对美出口的国家订单减少。 而供应链的关联性又让这种压力扩散至上下游，从原材料供应到零部件生产，再到终端组装，全球产业 链的每一环都可能因美国政策变动而被迫调整。 引发全球焦虑的核心事件，是美国最高法院对特朗普政府进口关税令合法性的审查。 法院针对《国际紧急经济权力法》征收关税的法律依据提出严厉质疑，这直接让 ...

德国联邦劳工局管理委员会7日批准了2026年预算案。由于高失业率和持续低迷的经济形势，劳工局预 计2026年财政将出现约39.7亿欧元赤字，其中包括破产补偿金和冬季就业补助等分摊支出。该赤字将通 过联邦政府贷款予以弥补。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...