Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year, as it awaits clarity on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][5]. Interest Rate Policy - A Bloomberg survey indicates that all but two economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged, with a majority predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [1]. - The ECB is projected to cumulatively lower rates by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to position the deposit rate in a neutral zone [1]. - ECB officials are divided on future policy directions, with some open to further easing due to concerns about inflation potentially falling below the 2% target [2][3][4]. Economic Outlook - Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting in August has heightened uncertainty, with risks of a less favorable outcome from trade negotiations compared to previous forecasts [6]. - The ECB's Vice President warned of potential stagnation in output for the eurozone in Q2 and Q3 if trade talks fail [6][9]. - Positive economic signals include planned military and infrastructure spending, with over 100 billion euros (approximately 117 billion dollars) in new projects announced by top German companies [9]. Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers about the impact on export prices and import costs [10]. - Some officials suggest that a stronger euro could lead to a reconsideration of rate cuts, while others believe such concerns are overstated [10][11]. Communication Challenges - The ECB's upcoming policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks will be closely monitored for indications of future rate cuts, particularly the use of terms like "pause" which may signal that rate cuts are not over [11][12]. - The assessment of economic risks is crucial, with expectations that if risks remain skewed to the downside, it could signal a forthcoming rate cut in September [11]. Personnel Changes - The July meeting will mark the first participation of the new Dutch central bank governor, who is viewed as a moderate hawk, while the Austrian hawk representative will attend for the last time before retirement [12].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year as policymakers assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The ECB is anticipated to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2% based on a survey where all but two economists predict this outcome [1] - Most economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September, coinciding with potential trade agreement developments between the US and Europe [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Divergence in Policy - ECB officials generally agree on pausing the monetary easing cycle that has lasted for a year, but there are differing views on future policy directions [1] - Some officials express concern that inflation may fall below the 2% target again, advocating for further easing, while others warn that increased fiscal spending could lead to higher prices in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that the positive impact of the monetary easing measures on the Japanese economy can only be assessed once the Bank successfully exits its easing policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's current monetary easing policy is under scrutiny regarding its effectiveness on the economy [1] - A successful exit from the easing policy is deemed necessary for evaluating the measures' impact [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU by the U.S. is expected to lead to significant economic repercussions, including potential retaliation from the EU and a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone [1][2][3]. Economic Impact - A 30% tariff, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from the EU, could shrink Eurozone economic output by 0.7% [1][3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) may lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the first quarter of 2026, down from the current 2% [1][3]. - Germany, as a key exporter, could face losses exceeding €200 billion due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% by 2028 [3]. Market Reactions - The threat of tariffs has increased risk exposure across asset classes, with European stocks potentially facing double-digit declines [4]. - The euro may experience downward pressure if high tariffs are imposed, affecting its macroeconomic outlook [4]. - Bond markets are reflecting heightened risk aversion, with predictions that short-term euro interest rates could drop below 1.5% and 10-year German bond yields may fall below 2.5% [4]. Negotiation Dynamics - As the August 1 deadline approaches, there is a complex negotiation landscape, with the possibility of temporary agreements but a higher likelihood of tariff increases [5]. - Internal divisions within the EU exist regarding the response to U.S. tariffs, with some countries advocating for caution while others push for a stronger stance [5]. - The ongoing trade uncertainty may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could serve as an unexpected leverage point for the EU in negotiations [5].

Group 1 - The fund aims to achieve investment returns higher than the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks and maintaining high liquidity [2][3] - The fund's total share at the end of the reporting period is 5,713,043,677.31 shares [2] - The fund is classified as a low-risk money market fund, with expected risks and returns lower than equity, mixed, and bond funds [2] Group 2 - The fund's net value yield for the past three months is 0.3051% for Class A, 0.3652% for Class B, and 0.3051% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 0.3366% [10][11] - The fund's net value yield for the past six months is 0.5852% for Class A, 0.7050% for Class B, and 0.5853% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 0.6695% [10][11] - The fund's net value yield for the past year is 1.2747% for Class A, 1.5172% for Class B, and 1.2743% for Class D, with the performance benchmark yield being 1.3500% [10][11] Group 3 - The fund's investment strategy involves active management of the asset portfolio based on in-depth research of macroeconomic trends, monetary policy changes, and market supply-demand conditions [2] - The fund's financial indicators for the reporting period include a total asset allocation of 70.71% in bonds and asset-backed securities [13] - The fund has not experienced any significant deviations from its investment strategy or any violations of legal regulations during the reporting period [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a significant recovery, with the cryptocurrency sector emerging as a standout performer, driven by multiple factors including rising Bitcoin prices and institutional investments [1][3]. Market Performance - The cryptocurrency market has shown a broad upward trend, with Bitcoin prices surpassing $118,500, marking a more than 9% increase from earlier in the week and approximately 6% from historical highs [3]. - Coinbase's stock rose by 9% this week, accumulating a 50% increase year-to-date, while MicroStrategy's stock surged by 12%, reflecting a 45% year-to-date gain [3]. - Bitcoin miners have also performed well, with MARA Holdings increasing by 12%, and CleanSpark and Riot Platforms rising by 8% and 7%, respectively [3]. Institutional Investment - Institutional investors are a key driving force behind the current market rally, with Bernstein raising Coinbase's target price to $510 and maintaining an "outperform" rating [4]. - MicroStrategy has transformed into a Bitcoin "treasury," holding nearly 600,000 Bitcoins valued at approximately $70 billion, which has positively influenced its stock performance [4]. - The strong performance of Bitcoin miners indicates growing interest from traditional capital in the cryptocurrency infrastructure sector [4]. Macro Policy Environment - Changes in macroeconomic policies, including expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are providing strong support for the cryptocurrency market [6]. - Former President Trump's public statements have acted as a catalyst for market optimism, emphasizing the potential for cryptocurrencies to thrive [6]. - Despite geopolitical risks, investor optimism regarding monetary easing continues to drive capital inflows into crypto assets [6]. Long-term Market Drivers - Three core factors are expected to support the market in the medium to long term: accelerated institutional participation, clearer regulatory frameworks in the U.S., and ongoing technological innovations in the cryptocurrency space [6]. - The current phase of the cryptocurrency market is characterized as an "institutional bull" market, with increasing integration into global asset allocation [9]. - Decentralized trading platforms are gaining traction, offering features like no KYC, self-custody of private keys, and automated market-making models, which enhance user control and transaction transparency [9].

Core Views - There is a divergence in views among European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding interest rate policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts if economic growth underperforms and inflation declines excessively, while others believe current rates are appropriate and only a significant deviation in inflation would warrant a cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB's governing council, suggests that if economic growth is weaker than expected, leading to a significant drop in inflation, the ECB should consider further rate cuts [2]. - Panetta emphasizes the need for a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be based on existing information and its impact on inflation forecasts [2][3]. - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's executive board, argues that the current interest rates are suitable and that the threshold for further rate cuts is high, only to be considered if inflation significantly deviates from targets [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Schnabel asserts that the economy shows resilience despite uncertainties, and the current inflation trajectory aligns with expectations, negating immediate concerns for further rate cuts [5][6]. - There are concerns among some policymakers regarding the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which could affect economic activity and inflation [6]. - The ECB plans to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting, with most officials preferring to observe economic trends before making further decisions [5][6]. Group 3: Banking Sector and Technology Investment - Panetta highlights the importance of technology investment in the banking sector, noting that such investments have increased by approximately 2 percentage points over the past decade [2]. - He also points out the risks associated with new technologies, prompting the Italian central bank to enhance oversight of financial intermediaries and their suppliers [3]. - Issues identified include low participation from corporate entities, incomplete IT asset inventories, and inadequate access controls for sensitive data [3].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, focusing on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2]. Economic Outlook - A series of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to support a moderate economic recovery, enhancing liquidity and providing strong support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3]. - The market is anticipated to show a trend of oscillating upward, with improved supply-demand structures across various industries [3]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities and emerging sectors, with an emphasis on safety and strategic industries supported by policies [6][7]. - The approach of "digging deep for Alpha while waiting for Beta" is recommended to navigate the market [7]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as essential for China's development path [5][6]. - The AI and cloud computing sectors are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity, with a strong alignment between market pricing and fundamentals [7][8]. Specific Industry Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is compared to the semiconductor industry, characterized by substantial market potential and policy support, making it a long-term investment opportunity [8]. - The military industry is expected to experience an upward phase due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the centenary of the army, providing additional growth signals [8]. - The domestic IP operation market is evolving, with companies establishing comprehensive industry chain layouts, indicating potential for overseas expansion [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3340 per ounce, with a significant increase of 1.1% on the previous day, closing at $3338.70 per ounce after a rise of $35.99 [1] - The market is anticipating the ADP employment data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more economic data is needed before initiating monetary easing, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, which could enhance gold's appeal as it does not yield interest [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent upward trend in gold prices suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, as the market has seen a significant number of short positions being liquidated [2] - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at $3358, while a support level is noted at $3326, with a potential downward movement towards $3300 if the support is breached [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Current oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65.42 per barrel and Brent at $67.09 per barrel, reflecting a cautious balance among multiple market factors [5] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ supply plans and U.S. economic data, which are pivotal in shaping oil price movements [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and potential Fed rate cuts are key variables that could influence future oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a high-level consolidation phase [6] - The recommended trading strategy for oil includes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $68.0-$69.0 and support levels at $64.5-$63.5 [6]