Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Due to heightened concerns about high valuations, the US stock market experienced a "Black Tuesday," leading to a decline in gold and silver prices. The risk appetite decreased, and the rebound strength of both gold and silver prices was weak. In the medium to long term, there was a slight shift to a bearish trend, with limited upside potential. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and the silver premium has expanded to 300 yuan/gram [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. However, the support for gold prices has significantly weakened recently [9]. - Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively, the 10 - year US bond yield dropped 2.72 basis points to 4.083%, the US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1352, and COMEX gold futures fell 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce. The gold futures price was 915.58, the spot price was 912.55, with a basis of - 3.03, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 87,816 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the US stock market's "Black Tuesday" led to a decline in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11,238, the spot price was 11,219, with a basis of - 19, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 665,610 kilograms, with a daily increase of 6,759 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: A series of events and data releases are scheduled, including the release of the Bank of Japan's September monetary policy meeting minutes, the New Zealand Reserve Bank's press conference on the semi - annual financial stability report, the potential attendance of US President Trump at a hearing for the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling," and various PMI data from China, the US, and Europe, as well as the US October ADP employment data [15]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened due to the improvement of factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US tariff concerns. The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of turmoil, and the inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. But currently, the support factors have changed [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there are both positive and negative factors affecting it. Positive factors include global turmoil, the existence of shadow Fed's significant interest rate cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Negative factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to interest rate cuts, the Fed's internal divergence, the under - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [13][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main gold holders decreased. For example, on November 4, 2025, the long position was 171,616, the short position was 69,501, and the net position was 102,115, showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [31]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main silver holders decreased. On November 4, 2025, the long position was 319,340, the short position was 252,370, and the net position was 66,970, also showing a decrease compared to November 3, 2025 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position fluctuated and decreased, while the silver ETF position fluctuated and increased and remained higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts stopped falling with silver being transferred from New York to London [40][41][43].

Group 1 - Bitcoin price fell below $100,000 for the first time since June 23, with a decline of over 18% in the past month [1] - Ethereum also experienced a nearly 10% drop on November 4, closing at $3,296, influenced by Bitcoin's price movements [3] - A total of 342,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours due to Bitcoin's decline, with liquidation amounts exceeding $1.3 billion, predominantly affecting long positions [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts attribute Bitcoin's price drop to rising risk aversion among global investors, alongside concerns over a potential bubble in tech stocks and inflation pressures limiting the Federal Reserve's policy easing [4] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has entered the "extreme fear" zone, indicating heightened market anxiety [4] - Despite the market turmoil, some investors remain optimistic, with Strategy Company increasing its Bitcoin holdings by 397 coins, costing approximately $45.6 million [6]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold futures is around 914.04 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.67% from previous levels [1] - The highest price reached was 925.86 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 913.78 CNY per gram, indicating a bearish short-term trend for gold futures [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 948 CNY per gram and 1020 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 894 CNY per gram and 950 CNY per gram [4] Group 2 - A meeting of foreign ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and five other countries took place in Istanbul, where they agreed to uphold the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and promote a lasting peace process based on a "two-state solution" [3] - The Turkish Foreign Minister, Fidan, stated that the participating countries share a unified stance on maintaining the ceasefire and preventing further escalation of the situation [3] - Despite the agreement, Israel continues to violate the ceasefire and obstruct humanitarian aid from entering the Gaza Strip [3]

避险情绪减弱，贵金属走势或分化 摘 要： 中美领导人釜山会晤后，中美贸易领域的矛盾按下暂停键，经 济避险情绪略有缓解。美元指数持续反弹，整体施压贵金属，但是 买盘力量依然有支撑，贵金属存在反弹动力，特别是白银，存在较 强的补涨需求。目前美国政府依然处于停摆过程中，关于美国经济 的数据无法进一步获得，从美联储官员的表述来看，美国经济依然 有一定韧性，但下行压力增加。 美东时间 10 月 1 日 0 时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近 七年再度"停摆"，目前美国政府依然处于停摆之中，政府停摆尚 未结束，美联储关于 12 月降息分歧再度加大，上周多名美联储官 员反对 12 月降息，使得未来关于降息的节奏变得更加不确定性。 给贵金属的走势带来波动因素。由于政府停摆，可以参考的经济数 据有限。美国 9 月 CPI 同比上涨 3%，创今年 1 月以来最高，但低于 市场预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 环比放缓至 0.2%，也低于市场预期。9 月服务业通胀放缓至 2021 年 11 月以来的最弱水平。数据公布后， 市场已经完全消化美联储年内剩余时间两次降息25个基点的预期， 但近期该预期有所波动。 离岸人民币汇率主要被动跟随 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][66]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The marginal weakening of risk aversion has led to a decline in gold prices. As of October 31, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,077.2 per ounce, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.7% decrease to 1,039.2 tons. The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the decision to halt balance sheet reduction are expected to keep gold prices fluctuating in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: Improved macro sentiment has strengthened the fundamentals for copper. As of October 31, the SHFE copper futures contract fell by 0.81% to 87,010 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 182,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 134,600 tons. The tightening supply of copper resources and improving macro sentiment are expected to support copper prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to reduced risk aversion, but the long-term outlook is positive as the monetary attributes of gold are expected to strengthen [4][7]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals are improving with a slight increase in domestic inventory and tightening supply from overseas. The macro sentiment is also improving, which is expected to support copper prices [6][5]. - **Aluminum**: The LME aluminum price increased by 1.1% to $2,888 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 619,000 tons, with a slight increase. The supply-demand balance is expected to tighten, supporting aluminum prices [6]. - **Tin**: The SHFE tin futures contract fell by 0.1% to 283,900 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory decreased by 144 tons. The supply of tin remains tight, and prices are expected to trend upwards [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum. For aluminum, Tianshan Shares is recommended [7][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - **Aluminum**: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - **Silicon**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - **Downstream Data**: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - **Downstream Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing upward pressure due to a combination of factors including expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Market Data - On October 31, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 921.92 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.27% with a trading volume of 395,964 lots and an open interest of 156,891 lots [1]. Fundamental News - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on October 31 was quoted at 916.60 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 5.32 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3]. - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is fueled by recent weak employment reports, which have intensified the urgency for monetary easing [3]. - Heightened risk aversion due to factors such as U.S. debt expansion, de-dollarization, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and the reshaping of economic dynamics has increased the strategic value of gold as a hedge [3]. Institutional Perspectives - According to Heng Tai Futures, in the long term, non-U.S. assets are expected to outperform due to the deterioration of the U.S. credit system and the restructuring of the global monetary system. Gold remains a key asset for long-term allocation [5]. - In the short term, after a significant rise in gold prices, technical indicators suggest that the market is in an overbought condition, indicating a potential for a substantial pullback. Traders are advised to take partial profits on long positions [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded this week, trading around $4003 after hitting a low of $3900 on October 6, driven by increased investor risk aversion due to concerns over a potential long-term U.S. government shutdown [1] Market Analysis - The market sentiment has shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold due to fears of a prolonged government shutdown in the U.S. [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated uncertainty regarding a rate cut in December, which has been interpreted as a hawkish signal, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and limiting gold's rebound [1] - A recent trade easing agreement between the U.S. and Asian countries during the APEC meeting has reduced global risk aversion, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] Technical Analysis - Gold formed a bullish candlestick pattern, ending a four-day losing streak, which was unexpected given the fundamental pressures from the uncertainty around the December rate cut [2] - The market is currently exhibiting complex emotions, with signs of a potential emotional trading resurgence [2] - The price action suggests a shift to a range-bound trading expectation, with key resistance levels at $4070-$4080 and support around $3980 [4] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy involves focusing on the range between $3980 and $4050/60 for short-term trades, with adjustments based on market movements [4] - Aggressive positions can be taken near $4003, targeting levels around $4020-$4030 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent significant correction in gold prices, with a cumulative decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 per ounce, mainly due to technical selling pressure caused by over - heated bullish sentiment in overseas markets after nine consecutive weeks of price increases [3] - The fundamental logic supporting the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, and the current decline has sufficiently released short - term risks, so the price correction is a "comma" in the long - term upward trend [3] - The ebb of risk - aversion sentiment is an important factor driving the decline in gold prices, and investors' high - level profit - taking is a reasonable and necessary operation [3] - Even if gold prices stop falling at the current level, they may not immediately resume a rapid upward trend. Attention should be paid to the change in volatility, and a stable and declining volatility may indicate the approaching of the next upward cycle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Interest Rates - A 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this week is almost certain. The expected interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 have been revised down to 48.4bps, 3bps less than the previous week, mainly due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment [7] - The September CPI reading showed no upward inflation risk. The core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3% [7] - Last week, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds at different maturities diverged, with the 30 - year UST yield falling by 0.77bps to 4.6%, the 10 - year UST yield falling by 0.23bps to 4.01%, and the 2 - year UST yield rising by 2.27bps to 3.49%, causing the yield curve to flatten [11] Fed's Operations - The Fed is considering ending the balance - sheet reduction within a few months. Last week, the ONRRP usage volume increased by $6.05 billion to $10.06 billion, corresponding to the rise in TGA balance. The Fed's reserve balance increased by $58 billion to $2.93 trillion [14] Bond Positions - As of September 23, the positions of short - and long - term U.S. Treasury bond interest rates were differentiated. The non - commercial net short positions of 2 - year UST futures decreased by 103,272 contracts to 1,300,198 contracts, while those of 10 - year UST futures increased by 24,817 contracts to 844,116 contracts [18] - As of the week of October 20, the sentiment of JPM's net long - position investors in Treasury bonds was 9, down from the previous week [19] Real Interest Rates - The yields of 5 - year and 10 - year TIPS decreased. The 5 - year TIPS yield fell by 6bps to 1.24%, and the 10 - year TIPS yield fell by 1bp to 1.73% [27] Dollar Index - Last week, the dollar index and the gold price moved in opposite directions. The gold price fell by 3.29%, while the dollar index rose by 0.39% to 98.9, and their rolling correlation increased [35] - The U.S. dollar appreciated by 1.4% against the Japanese yen, remained flat against the euro, and appreciated by 0.5% against the British pound [35] - As of September 23, the total positions of the dollar index increased. The non - commercial long positions increased by 1,541 contracts to 14,000 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1,009 contracts to 24,400 contracts. Short - selling forces were dominant [41] Offshore Dollar Liquidity - Last week, the 3 - month Basis Swap for the Japanese yen and the euro decreased month - on - month, and the financing cost of offshore dollar liquidity increased [44] Inflation Indicators - Last week, the copper - to - gold ratio rose to 2.66, with copper prices rising and gold prices falling, indicating a marginal recovery in global total demand momentum [51] Price Ratios and Volatility - The gold - to - silver ratio fluctuated upwards as the decline of gold prices was smaller than that of silver prices last week; the gold - to - copper ratio decreased as gold prices fell and copper prices rose; the gold - to - oil ratio decreased as oil prices rose and gold prices fell [60] - The correlation between gold and crude oil, copper, and the dollar index decreased from a rolling correlation perspective [68] - Despite the significant decline in the absolute price of gold, the domestic - foreign premium has recently increased, indicating domestic investors' buying behavior [75] Inventory and Positions - Last week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 344,400 ounces to 38.688 million ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 13.9103 million ounces to 492.557 million ounces; the SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.45 tons to about 87 tons, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 91.9 tons to 657.4 tons [80] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 19.7 tons to 1,038.9 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 428.9 tons to 15,340.8 tons [86] - The total COMEX gold positions increased by 12,568 contracts to 529,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 6,030 contracts to 333,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions increasing by 5,691 contracts to 66,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for gold allocation [93] - The total COMEX silver positions increased by 2,851 contracts to 165,000 contracts, with non - commercial long positions increasing by 695 contracts to 72,000 contracts and non - commercial short positions decreasing by 43 contracts to 20,000 contracts, showing an increase in the long - buying power for silver allocation [98]

最近，黄金市场可真是不平静，就像坐过山车一样刺激。10 月 20 日的时候，国际金价一路猛涨，创下历史新高，每盎司达到了 4381 美 元 ，当时市场里那叫一个热闹，投资者们都兴奋得不行，觉得黄金这波行情还能继续涨，都在期待着大赚一笔。 谁能想到，这兴奋劲儿还没过，市场就来了个大反转。短短几天后，到了 10 月 28 日，伦敦现货黄金价格就像断了线的风筝一样，直线 下跌，直接跌破了 3900 美元 / 盎司 。这几天的跌幅可不小，从高点跌了快 500 美元，单日跌幅更是创下了 12 年来的最大纪录。这突如 其来的大跌，可把不少投资者打了个措手不及。那些之前追高买入的人，本来满心欢喜等着赚钱，结果一下子就被套住了，心里别提多 难受。市场情绪也从之前的狂热，一下子变得谨慎起来，大家都开始担心，这黄金价格是不是还得继续跌。 这轮金价大跌，背后原因不简单 这轮金价突然大跌，可不是一个原因造成的，背后藏着好几个关键因素。 先说说全球 "避险情绪" 降温这件事。之前，中美经贸关系有点紧张，俄乌冲突也一直没完全解决，大家心里都不踏实，就想着买点黄金 避险。毕竟黄金这东西，一直被当成避险的好选择，局势越不稳定，它就越受关注。 ...