Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the conflict between Israel and Iran is expected to have a short-term impact on major asset classes, particularly oil prices, which are likely to remain high unless there is a significant de-escalation in the conflict [1][2] - The military actions taken by Israel against Iran's nuclear facilities have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, leading to a rapid increase in oil prices, with global crude prices rising to $75.29 per barrel, a 6% increase from June 12 [3] - The conflict has resulted in a clear differentiation in global financial markets, with risk assets like stocks declining while safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar have surged, with gold prices surpassing $3,400 per ounce [4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions are unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war due to the support of major powers like the US for Israel and Russia for Iran, suggesting that the conflict may remain contained and manageable [4] - The potential for a prolonged geopolitical friction is noted, with the current situation possibly lasting longer than previous conflicts, such as the India-Pakistan tensions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, has led to significant market movements, with Brent crude reaching a high of $78.5 per barrel, marking one of the largest three-day increases in 30 years [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices could peak at $90 per barrel during the summer due to short-term geopolitical shocks, but expects a decline to $59 per barrel by Q4 2025 as geopolitical risks ease [1][2]. - The report indicates that if Iran's export infrastructure is damaged, leading to a reduction of 1.75 million barrels per day for six months, Brent crude prices could exceed $90 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Impact on Asset Classes - The rise in geopolitical risks has resulted in a notable divergence in asset performance, with stock markets experiencing sell-offs and a negative correlation between oil prices and stocks [5]. - When oil prices rise due to economic growth, risk assets tend to perform well; however, during oil price shocks, safe-haven assets outperform [5]. - Gold and Swiss Franc have seen significant gains, with the latter expected to continue rising if geopolitical tensions worsen [5]. Group 3: Currency and Inflation Dynamics - Despite a decline in the US dollar, its correlation with stocks has turned negative, suggesting that the dollar may behave more like a safe-haven asset amid significant geopolitical risks [5]. - Oil-related assets, such as energy stocks and credit products, have performed in line with oil prices, benefiting oil-exporting countries over importing ones [5]. - The US breakeven inflation rate has diverged from oil prices, particularly after June, when CPI data fell below expectations [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent developments in the gold market, particularly in light of escalating tensions in the Middle East, specifically between Israel and Iran, which are influencing gold prices and investor sentiment [2]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The situation in the Middle East is tense, with Israel launching airstrikes against Iran, targeting facilities related to its nuclear program. This operation is named "Operation Lion's Strength" and is expected to last for a week [2]. - The scale of Iran's retaliation is a critical variable. If Iran's response is restrained and energy supplies remain unaffected, risk premiums may quickly dissipate. Conversely, any signs of retaliation or disruption in energy supplies could maintain high market volatility, leading to an increase in oil prices and safe-haven assets [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the stochastic oscillator shows both %K (blue) and %D (red) lines have entered the overbought territory above 80, suggesting strong bullish momentum in the short term. However, this overbought signal does not directly indicate a sell-off, but investors should be cautious of potential short-term pullbacks or consolidations if prices fail to break previous highs [5]. - Current gold prices (approximately $3429) are challenging key resistance levels from mid-April and late May, which are around $3450-$3480. A successful breakout above this range could open further upside potential [6]. - The 2-hour chart shows a clear and steep bullish alignment of the EMA system, indicating strong buying power in the short term. The recent candlestick patterns, particularly the last one, exhibit strong buying interest with little to no upper shadow, reflecting robust upward momentum [9]. - According to the Trading Central pivot line indicator, the central price level for the day is $3440. A bullish outlook is indicated above $3392, with targets at $3440 and $3462, while a bearish outlook is suggested below $3392, with targets at $3377 and $3360 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent significant events in China's innovative drug industry, including the licensing agreement between 3SBio and Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707, and the breakthroughs in treating multiple solid tumors showcased at the 2025 ASCO conference, emphasizing the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs. However, it also addresses the concerns regarding the "selling seedlings" phenomenon, which refers to the early-stage transfer of innovative drug developments to large foreign pharmaceutical companies, indicating a strategic choice under dual pressures and a sign of industry maturity [1][2][3]. Group 1 - The "selling seedlings" phenomenon reflects the survival wisdom of innovative drug companies amid a financing "winter," where the decline in domestic financing scales has made capital hesitant to invest in long-cycle, high-risk projects. The flow of "risk contracts" through business development (BD) transactions has become a crucial lifeline, providing immediate cash flow and international experience for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. - The core challenge facing China's innovative drug industry is the imbalance between investment and return, with the average cost of developing a new drug ranging from $1 billion to $3 billion. To achieve profitability, annual sales must reach $200 million to $400 million during the exclusive market period, necessitating a focused approach to drug development [2][3]. - Innovative drug companies possess a dynamic "risk investment portfolio," where the high failure rates of drug pipelines necessitate external business development transactions to manage risks effectively. By transferring some pipeline risks to multinational giants, companies can secure immediate cash and future milestone payments [3][4]. Group 2 - Selling parts of the pipeline is a strategic focus for resource-limited small and medium-sized biotech companies, allowing them to concentrate on the most promising core projects rather than spreading resources too thinly. For multinational pharmaceutical companies, acquiring pipelines is a way to exchange capital for time and secure future potential blockbuster products [4]. - The essence of innovative drug BD transactions lies in managing scientific uncertainties and efficiently pricing and circulating risk assets. When Chinese pharmaceutical companies view their pipelines as valuable risk assets rather than mere commodities, they can optimize resource allocation and enhance industry operational efficiency [4]. - Understanding and managing risk is crucial for the success of China's innovative drug industry in the global market, enabling companies to navigate challenges and ultimately achieve sustainable growth [4].

Market Overview - Non-farm payroll data is set to be released tonight, with the overall market in a wait-and-see mode. Asian and European stock markets are mostly flat, while India's unexpected rate cut led to a 0.8% increase in its stock market [1] - Following a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, Asian suppliers in Tesla's supply chain also experienced declines. However, after a cooling of tensions between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, U.S. stock index futures saw a slight increase, with Tesla's pre-market shares rising over 6% [1] Commodity Performance - Precious metals continue to rise due to technical breakthroughs and industrial demand, with silver up over 1% and platinum increasing over 2% to its highest level since 2022 [2] - Spot gold saw a slight increase of approximately 0.2%, while both New York silver and spot silver rose over 1.4% [7] Stock Index Performance - Core asset performance shows that S&P 500 futures, Dow futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures all rose over 0.4% [3][10] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.5%, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained mostly flat [4] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index increased slightly by 0.2%, while the euro and pound both fell by 0.2%, and the yen depreciated by approximately 0.3% [5] - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by about 2 basis points [6] Oil and Cryptocurrency - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by over 0.5% [8] - Bitcoin dropped about 1% to below $104,000, while Ethereum fell approximately 6% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are no longer considered safe-haven assets, and the dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, potentially becoming a risk asset [1][2] - The market is experiencing a shift, leading to increased volatility, and while the dollar was previously strong, it is now facing challenges due to uncertainties such as tariffs [2] - Despite the weakening dollar, there is no recommendation against investing in US stocks; rather, it is suggested to preserve gains accumulated in the US stock market by reallocating funds to non-US assets [2] Group 2 - There is a significant influx of global capital into the Chinese capital markets, particularly the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased liquidity since September of last year [1][3] - The correlation between A-shares and precious metals has shifted, with both now behaving more like safe-haven assets, especially during downturns in the US stock market [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reported a substantial increase in the base currency balance, leading to lower overnight rates and a surge of funds into the Hong Kong market, with estimates of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in overseas capital flowing in [3]

金十数据5月27日讯，由于美国贸易政策的不确定性给这一风险敏感型数字资产带来压力，比特币小幅 下跌。Zaye Capital Markets分析师纳伊姆・阿斯拉姆在一份报告中称："特朗普的关税威胁和政治姿态 正在注入高度的地缘政治和经济风险，抑制了对风险资产的需求，同时增强了对防御性头寸的需 求。"他表示，特朗普在社交媒体上愈发反复无常的评论"进一步激化了市场情绪"，反映出其领导风格 易受波动和不可预测性影响。 美贸易政策存疑 比特币受压微跌 ...

现货白银 中美经贸关系释放积极信号，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》落地，双方互降关税。贸易局势的阶段性缓和使得全球股市普遍反弹，市场风 险偏好显著回升。投资者纷纷从避险资产转向风险资产，黄金作为传统避险资产，其吸引力大打折扣。资金大量流出黄金市场，推动金价下 行，昨日现货黄金价格跌破3200.00美元/盎司的重要心理关口，日内下跌超50美元，创4月15日以来的低位。 不仅中美贸易关系改善，市场消息称美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议也"接近达成"，进一步强化了市场的乐观情绪，持续对金价形成 压制。美联储副主席杰斐逊就经济前景发表的讲话中，他指出，关税以及相关的不确定性，可能在今年减缓美国经济增长、推高通胀。 交易策略： 现货黄金 反弹至3220.00企稳做空，目标3190.00 杰斐逊在纽约联储组织的会议上表示，关于政府政策的不确定性正在加剧，目前尚不清楚关税对物价上涨的影响是较为短期还是较为持久。他 明确下调了对美国今年经济增长的预期，不过仍预计美国经济将继续扩张。他特别提到，"如果目前宣布的关税措施持续下去，可能会中断通 胀放缓的进展，至少在短期内会推高通胀。" 从通胀角度来看，杰斐逊认为，最近的通胀数 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. Recent trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes are intertwined. The joint statement between China and the US to reduce reciprocal tariffs led to a strong market reaction, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price has fallen nearly 10%, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3,200. The market is also awaiting the US CPI data tonight [2] Group 3: Reasons for the Gold Price Decline - The weakening of the trade conflict has reduced the safe - haven value of gold. When the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff hikes last month, the gold price soared 8% in a single week to a record high of $3,500. Now, as the trade war eases, the over - reaction to the White House's policy has led to the gold price correction [3] - The resurgence of the US dollar has suppressed the gold price. The US dollar index soared 1.5% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and reaching a two - month high of 101.97, which has a double - edged impact on gold [3] - Capital has shifted to risk assets. The S&P 500 index soared 3.26%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the VIX panic index fell below the 20 psychological threshold, indicating that funds are leaving defensive assets [3]

新华财经上海5月12日电（葛佳明）5月12日，全球资本市场避险情绪降温，风险偏好获得提振，港股尾 盘急速拉升。进入欧洲交易时段，欧洲三大股指全线高开高走，美股三大股指期货大幅走强，国际油价 显著上涨，黄金重挫。 避险需求急速下降，黄金价格出现剧烈波动，日内下跌一度超过100美元，现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至 3%，最低触及3216美元/盎司；COMEX黄金主力期货合约跌幅超3%，最低触及3222美元／盎司，已经 跌破了5月1日的阶段前低，创4月14日以来新低。 进入5月，国际金价大幅震荡似乎正成为常态。在业内人士看来，考虑到地缘政治仍有不稳定因素、关 税风波仍存变数的情况下，近期金价动荡在情理之中，投资者尤其是期货投资者需要加强风险意识，普 通投资者应理性对待，避免盲目"追涨杀跌"，防范投资风险。 布伦特原油期货和美国WTI原油价格均延续上周反弹趋势，WTI原油一度涨近3%，最高触及63.41美元 ／桶，近5个交易日涨幅一度逼近10%，布伦特原油价格一度涨近4%，最高触及66.3美元／桶，近5个交 易日振幅达到10%。分析师表示，关税问题的缓和，一定程度上缓解了市场对于美国经济衰退的预期， 致使投资者预期原油需求或 ...