金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）中国商务部连发四则公告，事关稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制。2） 美国政府关门难解：参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要 动"大招"。3）美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。4）贝森特已面完 11 名美联储主席候选人，4 个人最有希望。美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎， 华尔街日报：凸显美联储内部分歧。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：支持今年进一步降息，并 不认为经济处于衰退边缘。5）美国财长贝森特：赤字比降至 5 开头，希望几年后降至 3 开头。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to show strong bullish momentum, recently touching $4060, with a slight pullback to the psychological level of $4000 being quickly absorbed by buying interest [1][3]. Fundamental Drivers - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of clear agreements on the debt ceiling and spending limits have raised investor concerns, increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a focus on growth risks rather than inflation pressures, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, continue to attract global attention, further supporting gold demand [3]. - Despite record high gold prices, central banks worldwide are still increasing their gold reserves, indicating strong structural demand for gold in the long term [4]. - Persistently low bond yields make non-yielding gold a valuable store of value [5]. Technical Drivers - Gold maintains a strong bullish market structure, supported by stability above the $4000 psychological level and a series of higher highs and lows, indicating a continuation of the bullish rebound [6]. - Recent resistance levels at $4048-$4053 have limited upward attempts, with bulls needing to break through this resistance for further gains [7]. - The 5-day moving average on the 4-hour chart is at $4032, showing bullish momentum, while levels below $4018-$4008 may present additional buying opportunities [8]. - Daily and monthly RSI readings are at 90, indicating overbought conditions, suggesting caution regarding potential price corrections from these levels or the next bullish target of $4115 [9]. Overall Outlook - Gold retains a strong bullish momentum aligned with the primary trend, but the likelihood of a price correction is increasing, potentially around $4115 or sooner [10]. - As long as the sequence of higher highs and lows remains intact, the bullish rebound will continue [11].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the key events during the National Day holiday and the outlook for the bond market. It points out that consumption showed a characteristic of "increasing quantity but decreasing price" during the holiday, with tourism and travel recovering steadily. However, the prices of air tickets and hotels declined year-on-year, and the performance of urban travel, box office, and real estate was weak. The sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair remain to be seen. The bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity in the fourth quarter as the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power [2][6]. Group 2: Holiday Consumption and Travel - **Travel Volume Increase**: From October 1 to 8, the daily average cross - regional population flow reached 304 million person - times, a 6.2% year - on - year increase compared to the 7 - day average of the 2024 National Day holiday, hitting a record high. The international passenger flow from September 30 to October 6 increased by 15.3% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Price Decline**: As of October 7, the 7 - day moving average of domestic aviation fuel - included ticket prices decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and business route ticket prices generally declined. The RevPAR of domestic hotels from September 22 to 28 decreased by 4% year - on - year, indicating that profitability has not significantly recovered. The box office revenue and average ticket price from October 1 to 7 decreased by 18% and 10% respectively [6]. Group 3: Global Capital Market Performance - **Stock Market**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 7), major developed countries' and Hong Kong stock indices strengthened. The Nikkei 225 led the gains, with the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech rising by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. The healthcare and information technology sectors in both US and Hong Kong markets rose significantly [6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well. London gold and silver rose by 4.0% and 4.9% respectively, and LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose by 3.5%, 2.5%, and 1.5% respectively [6]. - **Bond Yields**: Most major countries' long - term bond yields rose, while the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 2BP to 4.14%, mainly due to the expected weakening of employment data and the "shutdown" of the US government [6]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index rose by 0.8%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.7% against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly by 0.2% [6]. Group 4: Market Transaction Themes - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The unexpected decline in ADP employment data led to increased expectations of an interest rate cut, and concerns about debt sustainability due to the US government "shutdown" caused gold prices to rise and the US stock market to fluctuate. However, it is expected that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved and will not cause continuous market disturbances [6]. - **Japanese Market Outlook**: With the likely victory of Kōichi Tashiro in the Japanese prime ministerial election, the expectation of a Japanese yen interest rate hike has been postponed. The implementation of active fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a market pattern of a strong Japanese stock market, a weak yen, and weak Japanese bonds [6]. Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - As the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power in the bond market in the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity. However, the sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair need further observation as prices have not fully stabilized [2][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the glass market, in October, the supply of glass production lines remains stable, but with the approaching of the peak season for natural gas demand and the expected increase in natural gas prices, the cold - repair willingness of natural gas - fueled production lines may strengthen, and the number of cold - repair production lines is expected to increase compared to September. The demand showed a short - term recovery during the National Day, but it's hard to sustain. After the holiday, the market may shift from supply - demand trading to policy - based trading, and the price is likely to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to buy glass futures at low prices in the short term [2]. - For the soda ash market, the second - phase partial devices of Yuanxing Energy are expected to be put into production, intensifying the supply - surplus situation. In October, it's the off - season for downstream demand, and the supply continues to increase, which may lead to a rise in enterprise inventory and price pressure. The demand recovery during the National Day is hard to sustain, and the growth of heavy - soda demand in the photovoltaic industry is limited. The price may continue to decline, but there is also a possibility of enterprise production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures at low prices in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1,250 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the position of the main contract is 1,317,458 lots, up 67,092 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 228,442 lots, up 11,845 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 7,333 tons, up 981 tons; the basis is - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 94 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1,218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the position of the main contract is 1,151,489 lots, up 160,754 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,648 lots, down 31,026 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons; the basis is - 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 120 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy - soda is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy - soda is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light - soda is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light - soda is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,156 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate is 89.12%, up 3.59 percentage points; the enterprise inventory is 165.98 tons, up 5.99 tons [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged; the in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons; the number of in - production lines is 225, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 5,935,500 heavy - boxes, down 155,300 heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - Real estate: The cumulative new - construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative completion area is 27,693.54 million square meters, up 2,659.54 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Soda ash: Multiple soda ash production devices have changes in operation status, including production reduction, load increase, and resumption of production. For example, Henan Haohua Junhua's device reduces production due to synthetic ammonia problems; Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year device resumes production [2]. - Glass: In October, the glass production lines remain stable. With the approaching of the natural gas demand peak season, the cold - repair willingness of natural gas - fueled production lines may increase, and the implementation of the industry's backward - capacity governance policy may limit capacity release [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose to $10,800, hitting a new high this year with a holiday increase of about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE copper opened and closed higher, with the open interest continuously rising. The strong upward movement was mainly due to three factors: supply shortage (dual squeeze from the mine and smelting ends), macro and financial attributes (interest - rate cut expectations and increased capital attention), and demand resilience (traditional peak season and long - term trends). In the short term, copper prices broke through and moved up, with strong upward momentum. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in May 2024 [5]. - **Aluminum**: During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum rose by about 3%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE aluminum opened and closed higher, breaking through the 21,000 - yuan mark, with the open interest continuously rising. The rise in aluminum prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 47,000 tons during the National Day holiday, and downstream enterprises showed strong wait - and - see sentiment after the holiday. Technically, attention should be paid to the high - point pressure in mid - September [6]. - **Nickel**: During the National Day holiday, LME nickel rose by about 1.2%. On the first trading day after the holiday, SHFE nickel continued to increase positions and move up, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. The rise in nickel prices was largely affected by the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector, driven by the sharp increase in copper prices. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown of nickel ore inventory accumulation at ports and the depletion of SHFE nickel inventory provided support for nickel prices. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 - yuan mark [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that copper prices are resetting into a new range, with a lower limit of $10,000 per ton and an upper limit of $11,000 per ton. Supply structural constraints, strategic demand (such as power grids, AI, and national defense), and possible inventory behavior support the bottom, but high prices may trigger the entry of scrap copper into the market and aluminum substitution, thus limiting the upside. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,500 per ton and maintained the 2027 forecast at $10,750 per ton. Citi's forecast for copper prices is more aggressive, expecting copper prices to soar to $11,000 per ton within 0 - 3 months and average $12,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026. On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 167,900 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from September 29 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On October 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 634,000 tons, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [10]. - **Nickel**: The mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market is the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel is + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans is + 2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,390 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded - area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][43].

Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in seven years due to a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, with a 75% probability of lasting over 15 days according to Polymarket predictions[3] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Nobuo, is expected to continue the "Abenomics" policy, focusing on aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to stimulate the economy[10] - France's new Prime Minister, Le Cornu, resigned after only 26 days in office, highlighting significant fiscal risks with a projected 2024 budget deficit being the highest in the Eurozone at 113% of GDP[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 jobs[8] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.1%, indicating continued contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, the lowest since 2010[9] - The Eurozone's CPI rose to 2.2% in September, while core CPI remained stable at 2.3%[35] Group 3: Market Performance - During the holiday period from September 30 to October 7, 2025, the Nikkei 225 index rose by 6.72%, emerging market stocks increased by 2.17%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.39%[15] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX copper up 4.38% and Brent crude oil futures down 1.98%[15] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 2 basis points to 4.14% during the same period[15]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose throughout the day, surpassing the 3900-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2015, while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback after an initial surge [1] - Gold stocks saw a collective surge, with companies like Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept gained momentum, with over ten stocks including Guoguang Electric and China Nuclear Power hitting the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also rallied, with Northern Rare Earth and others reaching the daily limit [1] - Overall, more stocks rose than fell, with over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains, and total trading volume reaching 2.67 trillion [1] Key Highlights Mineral Resources - The gold sector experienced significant gains, with companies like Xingye Silver and Shengtun Mining achieving consecutive daily limits [4] - The catalyst for this surge was the spot gold price breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, with a year-to-date increase of over 52% [4] - The rare earth industry received a boost from the Ministry of Commerce's announcement of export controls on rare earth-related technologies, particularly for applications in semiconductor manufacturing [4][6] Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion concept saw substantial gains, with stocks like Hezhong Intelligent and Yongding Co. hitting the daily limit [7] - A key breakthrough was reported in the construction of China's nuclear fusion device BEST, marking the start of the assembly of its core components [7] - The global nuclear fusion sector is rapidly developing, with significant stock price increases observed in U.S. nuclear fusion companies during the National Day holiday [8] Domestic Chips - The domestic chip sector continued to rise, with companies such as Deep Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics hitting the daily limit [10] - Overseas storage companies saw a collective surge, with SK Hynix rising nearly 15% and Micron increasing by 11% [10] - AMD announced a significant partnership with OpenAI, providing substantial computing power for AI infrastructure, leading to a 43% increase in AMD's stock over three days [10][12] Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is experiencing a supply-demand resonance, with China's export controls enhancing strategic control over the industry [6] - The demand for key elements like praseodymium and neodymium is being driven by global green transitions and carbon neutrality goals [6] - The profitability of rare earth companies is expected to concentrate in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and increased demand [6] Other Active Sectors - Solid-state batteries and robotics also showed active performance in the market, while sectors like film and photolithography faced declines [12]

长假期间事件频发，全球风险资产大涨，国际商品市场整体表现强势，贵金属表现尤为瞩目，其中，国 际现货黄金价格8日突破每盎司4000美元关口，创下历史新高；COMEX黄金期货也在长假期间累计涨 近5%，同步创下历史新高。 节后首个交易日，10月9日早盘国内贵金属双双高开，沪金期货跳空大幅高开，日内涨幅持续扩大，截 至上午收盘，主力合约一度涨超5%，盘中最高触及918.88元／克，续创新高；沪银主力合约一度涨超 3%，同步刷新上市新高。 此外，黄金概念股也大幅高开，截至上午收盘，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停，中金黄金、晓程科技涨超 8%，招金黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际涨超7%。 在黄金大涨下，国内多个金饰克价再创新高，多家站上1160元／克。9日上午，周生生足金饰品价格达 到1170元／克，周大福为1168元／克，老庙黄金为1160元／克。 市场避险需求强劲，国际金价涨势如虹 自当地时间10月1日起，美国联邦政府正式进入"停摆"状态，成为近七年来首次全面暂停非必要运作的 重大公共事件。据路透社报道，受政府"关门"影响，有约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休假，而不能离岗的 军队及边境巡逻人员等其他职员暂时"无薪上班"。更严峻的是， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising since August 22, closing September with a strong bullish trend, indicating robust market momentum [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, with expectations for further rate cuts increasing due to ongoing labor market weakness [1][4] - As of late October, the probability of a rate cut has risen to nearly 100%, with a 99.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and a decrease of 32,000 in September's ADP data [3] - Revised data from the Labor Department indicates a reduction of 911,000 in actual non-farm employment over the past year, with an average monthly increase of only 71,000 [3] - Job openings rose to 7.23 million in August, but hiring plans have dropped to the lowest level since June of the previous year, indicating fewer opportunities for job seekers [3] Group 3 - The recent government shutdown on October 1 has raised concerns about delayed data releases, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [4] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment rates rise significantly, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt more aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility [4] - Technically, gold is showing a bullish trend on both weekly and monthly charts, with expectations of reaching around $4,000 in the short term [4]

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].