Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [7]. Core Views - The report recommends focusing on the improving supply-demand dynamics in the aviation, oil shipping, and highway sectors while advising caution in container shipping, cross-border logistics, express delivery, and railways [1]. Aviation - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from a slowdown in supply growth, with demand for domestic and international flights increasing by 1.7% and 26.9% respectively in March [2][14]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger load factor remains high at 83.3%, with a notable reduction in the year-on-year decline of ticket prices [14][17]. - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from the improving market conditions [29]. Airports - Airports have seen a steady increase in passenger traffic, with Shanghai's two airports experiencing a 7.5% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput in Q1 2025 [30]. - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue streams to improve profitability [30][34]. Shipping and Ports - The report notes that the international freight market has been volatile due to tariff policies, with expectations of a decline in container volumes in April and May [3][37]. - Oil shipping rates are projected to improve in May due to OPEC+ production increases, while refined oil shipping rates may remain stable [39]. Highways - The highway sector demonstrated strong performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profits, making it a favorable sector for dividend plays [4]. - The report suggests that the current low interest rates and risk-averse sentiment support the valuation of dividend-paying stocks in this sector [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing intensified price competition, with a significant year-on-year increase in parcel volume but a corresponding decline in average prices [5][61]. - The report advises caution regarding franchise-based express delivery companies while maintaining a positive long-term outlook for well-capitalized and service-oriented leaders in the sector [5][61].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for May, including companies such as SF Holding (顺丰控股) and Guizhou Moutai (贵州茅台) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis discusses the implications of the US tariff policy, emphasizing that the long-term trade deficit is primarily due to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, which has led to structural economic issues in the US [2][4][5] - The tourism sector shows strong recovery during the May Day holiday, with domestic travel reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending of 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [6][7][8] - The report on Zhongke Electric (中科电气) indicates significant growth in net profit, with a projected net profit of 303 million yuan for 2024, representing a 626.56% increase year-on-year, driven by the expansion of its negative electrode business [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is considering a proposal to purchase 50 billion euros worth of American goods to ease tensions over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, indicating a willingness to compromise in the ongoing trade dispute [1][3][5]. Group 1: EU's Response to Tariffs - The EU's trade commissioner has stated that the EU will not accept a 10% baseline tariff on European goods as a long-term solution to the trade dispute with the U.S. [1] - The EU is contemplating increasing purchases of American products, such as natural gas and soybeans, to reduce the trade deficit and appease U.S. concerns [3][5]. - This approach suggests that Europe is in a difficult position and lacks the confidence to confront the U.S. directly, opting instead for negotiation [3][5]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes of Compromise - If the EU successfully negotiates the purchase of 50 billion euros in U.S. goods in exchange for the cancellation of the 10% tariff, it could lead to a mutually beneficial situation where European goods can continue to enter the U.S. market [6]. - However, achieving a favorable agreement that satisfies all 27 EU member states will be challenging, as it may require sacrificing individual national interests [8]. - The EU's hesitation to retaliate against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader uncertainty among international entities, including Japan, on how to effectively respond to U.S. trade policies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting export-oriented enterprises, particularly in response to the impact of new tariffs from the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policies - The policies include measures from the banking and insurance sectors to support foreign trade development [1]. - Specific support will be provided to listed companies significantly affected by tariffs, including assistance with equity pledges and fundraising [1]. - The government aims to enhance regulatory support while maintaining a balance in oversight to help affected enterprises cope with tariff impacts [1]. Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Xinbao Co., a leader in the small home appliance sector, expressed optimism about the new policies, which are expected to alleviate some of the pressures from tariffs [1]. - Xinbao Co. highlighted that approximately 70%-80% of its revenue comes from exports, with a significant portion from the U.S. market [1]. - Other companies, such as an automotive parts manufacturer, noted that while they experienced short-term market fluctuations due to tariffs, their financial stability remains intact, and they are more concerned about rising business costs than liquidity [3]. Group 3: Industry Support Initiatives - China Manufacturing Network, a comprehensive foreign trade service platform, acknowledged the positive impact of the new financial policies on export-oriented businesses, while emphasizing the need for further evaluation of the policy details [4]. - The platform has launched initiatives like the "New Maritime Plan" to help small and medium-sized enterprises expand into emerging markets and has established a special development fund to support industries heavily impacted by tariffs [4].

Group 1 - The Vietnamese government is set to hold the first round of tariff negotiations with the United States on May 7, 2023, in response to the complex global situation and the negative impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy on the global economy and international supply chains [1] - The International Monetary Fund has revised down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5% from previous estimates, while Fitch Ratings predicts growth below 2%, down 0.4%, and S&P Global forecasts a growth of 2.2%, a reduction of 0.3% [1] - The Vietnamese government has taken proactive measures to address the challenges posed by the US tariff policy, achieving initial positive results [1] Group 2 - The Vietnamese government has actively communicated through various channels to promote cooperation agreements and expedite US investment projects, including issuing Decree No. 73 to reduce import taxes on multiple goods before the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" [2] - Following the US announcement of the "reciprocal tariff," the Vietnamese government has held 10 consultation meetings and established a working group to adapt to the changes in US trade policy, with Vietnam being prioritized for negotiations among six countries [2] - The government has formed a negotiation delegation led by the Minister of Industry and Trade to develop a negotiation plan with the US, highlighting Vietnam's strategic importance in the economic dialogue [2] Group 3 - The Vietnamese government emphasizes the need to closely monitor domestic and international situations and to implement flexible and timely policy responses, particularly regarding the new US tariff policy [3] - Policies such as tax reductions and extensions are being proposed to support businesses and individuals affected by the US tariff policy, with a focus on maintaining Vietnam's legitimate rights [3] - The government aims to diversify markets, products, and supply chains while enhancing the quality and competitiveness of goods and services to adapt to global economic developments [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news revolves around Trump's announcement to suspend tariffs for 90 days for countries that do not retaliate, contrasting with his previous stance [4] - The U.S. bond market experienced significant sell-offs, indicating market reactions to Trump's tariff policy changes [4] - Countries like Canada and the EU have begun implementing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, with the EU passing a resolution to impose 25% tariffs on certain U.S. goods [9] Group 2 - China's initial response to U.S. tariffs included raising tariffs to 84% and filing additional complaints with the WTO, indicating a strong stance against U.S. pressure [6] - The EU's decision to potentially collaborate with China on tariff reductions for electric vehicles could reshape the global automotive market, impacting U.S. competitiveness [9][13] - Vietnam is emerging as a significant partner for China in international trade, with ongoing investments and infrastructure projects that could enhance bilateral relations [18] Group 3 - Japan is adopting a soft resistance approach in trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a reluctance to make significant concessions [20] - The BRICS nations are moving towards establishing a joint procurement mechanism, signaling a shift towards greater economic cooperation among emerging markets [20]

据每日经济新闻报道，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策 恶化了美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易 政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策有助于降低物价。此外，仅 有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 特朗普（资料图） 曾任美国总统高级经济顾问、现任纽约大学商学院经济学教授的劳伦斯·怀特指出，特朗普政府采取的经济政策违背了基 本经济原则。"各国应专注于最具效率的产业，通过贸易互补优势。关税只会推高成本，削弱福祉、收入与财富。这不仅 未能实现双赢，反而导致多方受损。"在全球供应链高度互联的背景下，业内人士和专家普遍担忧，持续升级的贸易壁垒 将对经济复苏和消费者福利产生长期负面影响。他们呼吁政府采取更加理性、可持续的经济政策以减缓冲击。 贸易战的双刃剑效应。特朗普的"对等关税"政策直接引发了中美贸易战。这场贸易战对美国而言主要导致通胀压力，而 中国则面临就业压力。双方都在通过补贴等政策手段来缓解这些压力，但长期来 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克（资料图） 比如特朗普近日就告诉外界，一切都很"活跃"，"每一个人"都想参与到谈判的工作当中。在外界看来，特朗普这些话的意思很明确，那就是中美已经就关税 问题谈上了，而且事情可能出现重大进展。未来或许会发生一件足以影响全球的大事。然而这一切都有一个前提，那就是特朗普说的是真话。特朗普的话属 实吗？考虑到他之前"满嘴跑火车"的"前科"不少，相当一部分人是不相信的。然而，他作为美国总统的身份，又让许多人不得不重视他的一言一行。 随着中方一锤定音，绝大多数人对于中美元首近期到底有没有通话这个问题，已经有了明确答案。当然，还有少部分人，比如特朗普的支持者、平时戴着有 色眼镜看中国的美国人，可能会相信特朗普的话。在美国有线电视新闻网近日的一场节目中，就有嘉宾质问到，为什么要相信中国的言论，而不是相信由 8000多万美国人选出来的总统？不过，对于这一类人，美国财政部长贝森特的一番话，或许能让他们认清现实。他近日直言，不知道有特朗普与中方通话这 一回事。 据羊城晚报报道，商务部新闻发言人表示，目前中美之间未进行任何经贸谈判。任何关于中美经贸谈判进展的说法都是捕风捉影，没有事实依据。在商务部 当天举行的例 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the implications of the United States' "reciprocal tariff" policy, which was announced on April 2, 2025, targeting 57 countries including China, with the aim of reducing the trade deficit [2][3][4] - The "reciprocal tariff" is calculated based on the trade deficit amount relative to total imports from a specific country, resulting in significant tariff increases, such as a 34% tariff on imports from China [4][5] - The report argues that the economic rationale behind the U.S. trade deficit and the "reciprocal tariff" policy is flawed, as it overlooks fundamental economic principles regarding domestic supply and demand [5][6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights that the U.S. trade deficit is primarily driven by the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, which has led to increased domestic demand and a long-term trade deficit [9][10][11] - The dollar's unique position allows the U.S. to benefit from "exorbitant privilege," enabling it to create dollars at little cost, thus exacerbating its trade deficit [10][11][12] - The report notes that the U.S. has been able to maintain a large trade deficit without facing a balance of payments crisis, a situation not applicable to other countries [13][14] Group 3 - The report identifies two major drawbacks of dollar dominance: the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing and increasing income inequality, leading to social unrest [17][21][22] - It suggests that the U.S. should consider abandoning its dollar hegemony and adopting a more equitable distribution of globalization benefits to address these issues [25][27] - The report emphasizes that the "reciprocal tariff" policy is a response to the challenges posed by globalization, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign imports and revive domestic manufacturing [28][29] Group 4 - The report outlines potential strategies for China to counter the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, emphasizing the need to enhance domestic demand through income distribution reforms and investment stimulation [40][41] - It argues that China's economic resilience is greater than that of the U.S., as it can create domestic demand to offset external shocks [41][42] - The report concludes that if China can effectively manage its internal economic policies, it can emerge stronger from the ongoing trade tensions and contribute positively to global economic stability [42]

不过，重返白宫的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普向包括欧盟在内的大部分国家征收所谓"对等关税"，令经济 增长前景陷入高度不确定。欧盟在 90天贸易谈判窗口内大多数出口商品将面临美国政府设立的10%对 等关税，钢铁和铝制品，以及汽车整体和汽车零部件则面临25%关税举措，并且欧盟与美国贸易谈判走 向仍然未知。 欧盟本月稍早同意将对美国政府主导的25%钢铝关税的反制措施延后90天实施。此举是在特朗普将对大 多数欧盟出口产品的所谓"对等关税"税率暂时从 20% 降至 10%、关说豁免的时间期限同为90天之后所 作出的决定。特朗普还对欧盟以及全球范围的汽车以及部分零部件加征了大约25% 的关税。 特朗普政府已经开始对中国(美国前三大贸易伙伴之一)征收高达145%的惊人关税，并对大多数其他国家 征收至少10%关税，尽管对于消费电子、半导体等某些细分领域暂时豁免关税，但是许多经济预测人士 因此警告未来全球经济将急剧放缓，部分人甚至预测今年美国就将出现深度经济衰退。 智通财经APP获悉，德国3月份的工厂整体订单增幅超过市场普遍预期，显示在美国关税政策宣布之 前，欧洲最大规模经济体的制造业形势有所改善。然而，特朗普政府掀起的新一轮面向全 ...