当前黄金市场正处于多重因素交织的关键节点。截至6月18日，伦敦金现货价格稳定在3383美元/盎司附近，纽约商品交易所黄金期货主力合约报3401美元/ 盎司，延续了自6月初突破3360美元后的震荡上行态势。这一走势背后，既有"去美元化"进程的结构性支撑，也受到美联储政策转向预期与地缘风险升级的 短期驱动。 技术面与资金面信号显示突破前的蓄力特征。伦敦金现货在3250美元（2024年12月低点转化支撑）与3360美元（2025年5月高点）之间形成宽幅震荡区间， 若站稳3400美元心理关口，量度涨幅指向3450-3500美元。 全球央行购金潮持续为金价提供长期动能。2025年一季度全球央行黄金净购买量达244吨，中国连续7个月增持黄金储备至7383万盎司，黄金占外汇储备比例 升至20%，超越欧元成为第二大储备资产。 这种战略储备需求在"去美元化"背景下尤为显著，3250-3300美元区间形成密集买盘支撑，构成中期防御枢纽。与此同时，市场对美债到期风险的担忧有所 缓解，6月实际到期量约2.1万亿美元且以短期债券为主，叠加中美贸易摩擦缓和带来的出口抢运效应，流动性冲击风险整体可控。 美联储政策转向预期成为短期波动的核心 ...

| 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 2025年06月18日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 中东地缘冲突仍在发酵，伊朗PQ生产与出口风险仍然不低、国际市场维持偏强运行。目前国内化工需求虽有回升， 关注进口成本走高后毛利回落的压力。月中到岸量和炼厂气外放约维持增长，苦地缘风险缓释,供给压力会带来较 强下行驱动。基本面仍有一定宽松压力,原油强势和政治风险支撑下盘面维持震荡偏强。 亚盘时段国际油价小幅回落,国内SC原油期货太幅上涨6.17%。伊以冲突仍在持续,且美国直接接入的可能性增 加，在美伊重返谈判桌前中东供应 ...

当地缘政治风暴再次席卷全球市场时，花旗集团的策略师们却在废墟中发现了一块避风港。 花旗策略师团队在最新研报中指出，英国股市凭借其对能源公司和传统防御性股票的高度敞口，可能为投资者提供抵御地缘政治紧张局势升级的 最佳保护。近期以伊冲突已导致油价跳涨约10%。 "如果地缘政治风险继续上升，这通常会有利于欧洲能源板块以及传统防御性板块，"由Beata Manthey领导的花旗团队在研报中写道： "瑞士和英国往往在地缘政治升级中跑赢同行。" 与瑞士类似，英国股市还在大型制药和消费品制造等更具防御性的板块拥有重要敞口，这些特征使其在市场动荡时期具备了天然的抗跌属性。 英国股市的独特优势 英国股市的这一优势源于其独特的结构配置。仅壳牌和英国石油两大石油巨头就占据了英国蓝筹股富时100指数约10%的权重。这一指数上周创下 收盘历史新高，与欧洲大陆同行的涨势保持同步。今年迄今，该股指上涨约7%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 值得注意的是， Manthey在 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target valuation range of HKD 12.90 to HKD 14.60, indicating a potential premium of 25% to 42% over the current stock price of HKD 10.30 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading gold mining enterprise in Henan Province, with a production scale of 7,000 tons of ore per day and an expected gold output of 5.2 tons in 2024, accounting for 1.37% of domestic gold production [1][14]. - The company has five major mining bases and a smelting processing plant, with a total gold reserve of approximately 131.81 tons (about 4.1 million ounces) as of the end of 2024 [1][46]. - The gold price is expected to remain strong due to a weakening dollar, increased central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][35][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading gold mining and smelting enterprise in Henan, with a focus on gold and its associated elements [14][23]. - It operates five mining bases and one smelting plant, with a daily ore processing capacity of 7,000 tons and a smelting capacity of 30 tons of gold annually [14][43]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.87 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a net profit of HKD 698 million, reflecting a significant growth of 119.4% compared to 2023 [4][23]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 43.1% in 2024, up from 29.8% in 2023, driven by rising gold prices and operational improvements [2][4]. Mining and Resource Quality - The average gold resource grade is 5.56 grams per ton, which is higher than the global average of 5.3 grams per ton for the largest gold mines [2][46]. - The company plans to focus on exploration and expanding mining capacity, with an expected annual production growth rate of over 10% for the next five years [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating strong demand for gold as a strategic asset [35][37]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is likely to continue influencing gold prices positively [38][41].

Core Viewpoint - European natural gas prices have risen for six consecutive days, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raising concerns about potential disruptions in the critical energy trade route of the Strait of Hormuz [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The TTF natural gas futures price surged by 2.8% on Wednesday, surpassing €40 per megawatt-hour for the first time since early April [1]. - Approximately 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption could lead to disproportionate price increases in LNG [1][2]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to keep European natural gas prices rising more strongly than Brent crude oil prices due to tighter supply-demand fundamentals in the gas market [1][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - Observers are worried that Iran may block oil and LNG vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which could exacerbate supply chain issues [2]. - Qatar has instructed LNG carriers to wait outside the Strait until loading operations are ready, indicating a potential bottleneck in LNG supply [2]. - The risk of trade disruptions has also contributed to rising Brent crude oil prices, reflecting broader market anxieties [2]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the rise in European natural gas prices is expected to be stronger than that of Brent crude oil due to the tighter fundamentals in the gas market [3]. - The next few days will be critical in determining whether energy and gas prices will continue to rise or stabilize temporarily [3]. - Potential threats from Iran against U.S. military bases and reduced LNG vessel traffic through the Strait pose significant upward risks to global natural gas supply [3].

Market Overview - The market is facing two major uncertainties: potential U.S. intervention in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision [1] - U.S. stock futures have rebounded slightly, with the S&P 500 futures up approximately 0.2% [1][10] - European stocks have also seen a slight increase, with German and French stocks rising about 0.3% [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained flat, indicating minimal changes in the Asia-Pacific region [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by about 0.1%, while the euro and yen have increased by approximately 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively [4] - U.S. Treasury yields have risen slightly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by over 1 basis point [5] - Spot gold prices remained stable, while silver rose by about 0.3% [6] - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have continued to decline, with daily losses expanding to 1% [7][13] - European natural gas futures have surged over 1.4%, reaching above €40 per megawatt-hour, the highest since early April [8] Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about U.S. military involvement, with speculation about a potential attack discussed in a recent National Security Council meeting [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision, with the market anticipating no changes in June and July, but betting on nearly two rate cuts later this year [9] - The CEO of EFG Asset Management highlighted the uncertainty faced by the Federal Reserve due to various intertwined factors, including tariffs, energy price fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit [9] Investor Sentiment - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, has surpassed the critical level of 20, indicating increased investor anxiety amid the Middle East tensions [11] - Despite the geopolitical situation, the market is already facing numerous risks, including high stock valuations and unaccounted uncertainties such as tariff policies and fiscal uncertainties [11]

2025-06-18燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：受中东地区夏季发电需求旺季预期提振，亚洲高硫燃料油市场短期内将持续获得支 撑，此外贸易商表示，中东地缘政治紧张局势促使市场参与者密切关注潜在的供应中断和船燃需 求变化；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油为483.43美元/吨，基差为312元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为544.5美元 /吨，基差为192元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油6月11日当周库存为2311.9万桶，增加171万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多；低硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空 6、预期：隔夜美国介入 ...

固收 市场的共识与潜在预期差 华泰研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 6 月 18 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期影响资产的宏观主线发生切换，市场对关税的敏感度在下降，对经济数 据、地缘局势的关注度在提升，而前期形成的市场共识也开始出现分歧与预 期差。地缘冲突对资产价格多为短期的脉冲式影响，而关税、财政政策落地 后的基本面状态，成为影响大类资产价格走势的中长期变量。不确定性环境 下，重申"重赔率+重左侧+重交易"的配置策略，尤其关注一致预期出现 反转后的交易机会。本周配置建议方面，当前市场处于关税政策的疲劳期+ 基本面数据验证期+地缘扰动频发期，在基本面降温以及地缘避险需求下， 前期计入较多关税乐观预期的权益资产赔率或欠佳，而债券、黄金等避险资 产胜率相对更高，仍需关注中东地缘局势、陆家嘴论坛等。 核心主题：市场的共识与潜在预期差 我们尝试梳理了五组市场共识与潜在预期差，以供投资者参考，并建议把握 共识反转后的交易机会。1）关税对市场影响力度降低，逐渐退化为扰动性 因素。关税对美国基本面影响可能偏滞后，但不会缺席。2）美国债务问题 恶化，美债利率易上难下，美元或长期走弱。但长期债务问题已定价较为充 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3,400 before retreating to around $3,384, demonstrating resilience amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has intensified over the past five days [1] - Despite the upward momentum, gold prices faced pressure from a 0.7% increase in the US dollar index and cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Technical Analysis - On the previous trading day, gold maintained a narrow trading range between $3,366 and $3,403, with a notable rebound after hitting a low of $3,366, closing at $3,387, forming a doji candlestick pattern indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The four-hour analysis shows gold initially declined to $3,370.4 before rebounding to around $3,400, currently trading near $3,382, with bearish indicators suggesting a preference for short positions [3] - Recommendations for trading include selling near $3,400-$3,403 with a stop loss at $3,408 and a target of $3,380-$3,370, as well as buying near $3,363-$3,366 with a stop loss at $3,358 and a target of $3,380 [5]

原油成品油早报 | 日期 | 日本石脑油 | 日本石脑油-B | 新加坡燃料油 | 新加坡380-B | 上期所FU主 | 上期所FU-B | 上期所BU | 上期所BU | HH天然气 | BFO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CFR | RT | 380CST贴水 | RT | 力合约 | RT | 主力合约 | BRT | | | | 2025/06/11 | 571.50 | 58.69 | 12.95 | -97.36 | 2912 | -107.32 | 3461 | -30.88 | 2.730 | 72.26 | | 2025/06/12 | 584.50 | 74.70 | 10.25 | -78.61 | 2997 | -92.40 | 3527 | -18.59 | 2.900 | 71.82 | | 2025/06/13 | 620.50 | 74.91 | 7.8 | -86.85 | 3205 | -99.04 | 3628 | -40.10 | 2.650 | 7 ...