Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the treasury bond market. Positive factors include high geopolitical risks driving up market risk - aversion and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations. Negative factors are the accelerated bond supply, reduced positions, and rising inflation expectations. The short - term technical support is effective, and investors can focus on rebound opportunities while controlling risks and monitoring policy trends [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: High geopolitical risks increase market risk - aversion, driving up demand for treasury bond futures. The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading operations signals monetary policy support and boosts market confidence [2] - **Negative Factors**: The accelerated bond supply and significant reduction in positions suppress futures prices. Rising inflation expectations and climbing yields of overseas treasury bonds indirectly affect market sentiment [2] Market Indicators - **Yield**: The report presents the historical data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] - **Funding Rate**: It shows the historical data of deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] - **Term Spread**: Data on the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] - **Open Interest**: Historical open interest data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [8] - **Trading Volume**: Historical trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [9] Basis and Spread - **Basis**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided, with different time ranges for each [10][11][12][16] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Data on the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, with different time ranges for each [14][15][17][18] - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL inter - variety spreads are provided, with different time ranges for each [19][20]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policies - The complex geopolitical situation has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by various global conflicts since 2025 [1][4] - Notable geopolitical events include Trump's proposal to make Canada the 51st state, ongoing tensions over Greenland, and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2] - The U.S. has implemented fluctuating tariff policies, including significant increases on imports from China and other countries, contributing to economic uncertainty [3][4] Group 2: Gold Investment Trends - Global gold ETF holdings have risen, with Asian markets showing particularly strong investment sentiment, reflecting a growing influence of Asian capital in the gold market [7][8] - As of June 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by approximately 62 tons since the beginning of the year, although they remain at relatively low historical levels [7] - China's gold ETF market has seen record inflows, with a total asset management increase of 57% to 158 billion RMB (approximately 68 billion USD) and a rise in holdings by 65 tons to 203 tons [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian maritime industry is rapidly developing, with a focus on expanding shipbuilding capabilities and increasing global market share, particularly as geopolitical risks prompt shipping companies to diversify their orders away from China [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Over 500 companies participated in the maritime exhibition in Mumbai, highlighting the global interest in strengthening maritime systems [4]. - The global shipbuilding market is dominated by China, South Korea, and Japan, which together account for over 90% of the market share, leaving India yet to establish a significant presence [2][10]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Indian government aims to transform the country into a global maritime hub, targeting an increase in the share of Indian ships in global freight from approximately 1% to 20% by 2047 [6]. - A support package worth 697.3 billion rupees (approximately 55.88 billion yuan) has been announced, which includes the establishment of a maritime development fund for shipbuilding and marine infrastructure [6]. Group 3: Company Developments - Cochin Shipyard, the largest shipbuilding company in India, has successfully delivered 70 small commercial vessels and is now focusing on international orders, having recently secured a contract for six container ships from CMA CGM [8][9]. - The company reported a sales increase of over 20% year-on-year for the fiscal year 2024, reaching approximately 50 billion rupees (around 4.01 billion yuan) [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The geopolitical climate has led to increased risks associated with ordering ships from China, prompting shipping companies to seek alternatives, which benefits the Indian shipbuilding sector [9]. - The number of completed ships in India for the fiscal year 2023 is expected to reach around 200, tripling the figures from 2020 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report highlights policy uncertainty as the primary risk facing the U.S. financial system, with concerns shifting from specific trade policies to broader uncertainties, including central bank independence and the availability of economic data [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Uncertainty - Over 61% of surveyed market participants identified policy uncertainty as the top financial stability risk, up from 50% in the spring survey [3] - The report marks the first time central bank independence has been explicitly mentioned as a risk factor, reflecting recent political pressures on the Fed [1][3] - Geopolitical risks have also gained attention, with 48% of respondents highlighting this concern, a significant increase from 23% in the previous survey [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Concerns - Concerns about rising long-term interest rates have increased, with 43% of respondents mentioning this risk, compared to just 9% in the spring survey [4] - Higher long-term rates could lead to unrealized losses for banks and impact fixed-income investors [4] Group 3: AI-Related Risks - The perception of AI-related asset valuation risks has risen sharply, with 30% of respondents viewing it as a potential shock in the next 12 to 18 months, up from 9% previously [4] Group 4: Leverage in Financial Institutions - The report emphasizes high leverage levels in non-bank financial institutions, particularly hedge funds, which have reached their highest levels since tracking began over a decade ago [7] - Hedge funds' leverage has steadily increased across various strategies, raising concerns about systemic risk [7] - Life insurance companies also exhibit high leverage, although their use of non-traditional liabilities remains limited [7] Group 5: Asset Valuation - Asset valuations are noted to be high, with stock price-to-earnings ratios nearing historical highs and corporate bond yield spreads at low levels compared to long-term averages [9] - The real estate market shows signs of vulnerability, particularly with upcoming refinancing needs in commercial real estate [9] Group 6: Debt Levels - Corporate and household debt vulnerabilities are assessed as moderate, with total debt as a percentage of GDP declining to a two-decade low [11] - While overall debt levels are manageable, certain consumer groups face repayment pressures, particularly in credit card and auto loans [11] Group 7: Financing Risks - Financing risks remain moderate, with government money market funds driving asset growth [12] - The commercial real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but significant debt maturities in the coming year could increase volatility [12]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's latest survey indicates that policy uncertainty, trade policy, central bank independence, and the availability of economic data are the most frequently mentioned risks to U.S. financial stability [1] - Respondents identified artificial intelligence (AI) as a primary concern for stability [1] - Other significant risks highlighted include geopolitical risks, inflation, monetary tightening, and higher long-term interest rates [1] - A shift in the current optimistic sentiment surrounding AI could lead to corrections in risk assets, potentially slowing the labor market and tightening financial conditions if the corrections are substantial [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve identifies political uncertainty and geopolitical risks as the most prominent concerns for stability [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment highlights that political uncertainty is a significant factor affecting market stability [1] - Geopolitical risks are also noted as a critical concern that could impact economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding global trade and central bank independence, is a primary concern for financial stability [1] - Overall geopolitical risk is also highlighted as a significant factor affecting financial stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of addressing geopolitical risks and has implemented several measures to ensure the stability and competitiveness of its overseas operations [1] Group 1: Measures to Address Geopolitical Risks - The company is advancing local production by constructing a production base in Thailand to increase overseas capacity and adapt to changes in international trade dynamics, thereby reducing potential tariffs and trade friction [1] - The company is optimizing its market layout, with a focus on diversifying its market strategy to reduce reliance on any single region, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [1] - The company is strengthening communication with customers and conducting ongoing analysis of global political, economic, and trade policy trends to enhance the foresight of its business decisions [1] Group 2: Commitment to Long-term Performance - The company is committed to continuously assessing and actively managing geopolitical risks to strive for long-term stable returns for investors [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The report expects precious metals to be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long - term. Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. In terms of silver, there are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term for hedging, the negative impact of the China - US talks has materialized, while risks such as a US government shutdown and geopolitical changes still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut remains. In terms of the hedging attribute, the results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, the US government shutdown reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history, and the US Supreme Court questioned the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs. Regarding the monetary attribute, private reports show a decrease in US employment positions in October and a surge in layoffs to a 22 - year high for the same period. The overall labor demand is still slowing down, and salary growth remains stagnant. The Fed's interest rate cut path has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. The market expects a 70% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling. For the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1] - **Data**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3984.80 per ounce, down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down $53.50 (-1.32%) from the previous week. London gold is $3986.50 per ounce, up $18.30 (0.46%) from the previous day and down $7.65 (-0.19%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE gold主力 is 921.26 yuan per gram, up 3.46 yuan (0.38%) from the previous day and down 0.66 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 917.64 yuan per gram, up 0.13 yuan (0.01%) from the previous day and down 3.38 yuan (-0.37%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [2] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3] Silver - **Core Logic**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. There are small increases in CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF, and a slight decrease in recent visible silver inventories [6] - **Data**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $47.85 per ounce, down $0.02 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.88 (-1.82%) from the previous week. London silver is $48.69 per ounce, up $1.08 (2.26%) from the previous day and up $0.51 (1.05%) from the previous week. The closing price of SHFE silver主力 is 11484 yuan per kilogram, up 57 yuan (0.50%) from the previous day and up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 11480 yuan per kilogram, up 59 yuan (0.52%) from the previous day and up 70 yuan (0.61%) from the previous week. There are also data on positions, inventories, etc. [7] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4%, the discount rate is 4%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.9%, and the Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $167.70 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2 year - on - year growth is 4.49%, up 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [9] - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.39, up 0.02 (0.84%) from the previous day and up 0.04 (1.70%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 99.71, down 0.45 (-0.45%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week. There are also data on US Treasury spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [9][11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak employment performance in the US supports the prices of precious metals. The high number of corporate lay - offs in the US in October has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. Along with factors such as the Fed providing liquidity, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metal prices may be supported [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - Shanghai Gold futures' closing price was 917.80 yuan/g, with a change of 5.54 yuan compared to the previous day and - 4.12 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 238,433.00, a decrease of 157,531.00 from the previous day. The inventory remained at 87,816.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3941.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 43.10 dollars compared to the previous day and - 5.60 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 281,102.00, a decrease of 97,457.00 from the previous week [1]. - London gold spot price was 3968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 20.20 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: - Shanghai Silver futures' closing price was 11427.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 151.00 yuan compared to the previous day and - 14.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 571,201.00, a decrease of 306,143.00 from the previous week [1]. - COMEX silver futures' closing price was 47.85 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 0.57 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 74,607.00, a decrease of 24,464.00 from the previous week [1]. - London silver spot price was 47.61 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.51 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The direction of the Fed's December rate cut is unclear. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's members are more concerned about inflation. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December rate cut is rising [1]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the lay - off wave. In October, the number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US increased by 175.3% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported a decrease of 9100 in non - farm employment in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1000. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance level around 11600 - 12400 [1].