日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-23 中国央行表态继续实施适度宽松货币政策 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者支出连续两个月稳步增长 美国最新的 11 月核心 pce 同比符合预期，通胀压力继续可控， 美元指数维持震荡。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 10.07 万吨 综 本周五大品种库存再度累积，随着需求的季节性下滑，和产量 回升，建材累库较为明显。卷板整体小幅去库，需求仍有韧性。 短期矛盾尚不突出，仍建议反弹逢高套保。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行行长潘功胜：今年降准降息还有一定的空间 报 央行呵护流动性的态度较为明确，但预计短期内降准或是大幅 增加买债额度的必要性继续下降。 有色金属（铜） 韩国锌业称美国冶炼厂废料堆含 30 亿美元金属价值 短期宏观因素可能会加剧价格波动，基本面短期因素对铜价形 成抑制，预计盘面短期宽幅震荡可能性更大，策略上短线转观 望。 能源化工（苯乙烯） 苯乙烯周度产量数据 多头增仓意愿强烈，苯乙烯盘面大幅上扬 | 1、 金融要闻及点评 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a significant 900 billion MLF operation on January 23, 2026, with a net injection of 700 billion, indicating a substantial increase in mid-term liquidity support to stabilize the financial environment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection - The PBOC's January MLF operation will result in a net liquidity injection of 700 billion, significantly larger than the 200 billion maturing this month [1][2]. - The total mid-term liquidity net injection for January is projected to reach 1 trillion, marking a notable increase compared to previous months [1][2]. - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue enhancing liquidity measures to address potential tightening and ensure a stable financial environment [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Market experts believe that the PBOC's actions are aimed at meeting the liquidity demands during the Spring Festival and countering the impact of increased credit issuance and government bond sales [2][3]. - The anticipated government bond issuance for the week is 706.6 billion, which is significantly higher than the previous week, indicating a potential strain on liquidity [4]. - There is a consensus that the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the Spring Festival is diminishing due to the substantial liquidity injection [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The PBOC's liquidity measures are seen as a continuation of structural policy reforms aimed at supporting economic recovery and ensuring that financing costs remain low [5]. - The central bank's approach is designed to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and inflation expectations [5]. - Analysts highlight that the current economic recovery foundation needs to be solidified, and the PBOC's policies are intended to create a conducive monetary environment for long-term structural transformation [5].

Market Data - As of January 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to 4122.58 points, the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.41% to 1541.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index climbed by 0.5% to 14327.05 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.01% to 3328.65 points [1] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 306.78 points, closing at 49384.01 points (up 0.63%), the S&P 500 rose by 37.73 points to 6913.35 points (up 0.55%), and the Nasdaq Composite gained 211.20 points, closing at 23436.02 points (up 0.91%) [1] - International oil prices fell on January 22, with light crude oil futures for March delivery down by $1.26 to $59.36 per barrel (a decrease of 2.08%), and Brent crude oil futures for March delivery down by $1.18 to $64.06 per barrel (a decrease of 1.81%) [1] - Gold futures for February surpassed $4900 per ounce, and silver futures for March exceeded $96 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [1] Economic News - The State Council's Food Safety Office is drafting national standards for prepared dishes and will solicit public opinions soon, aiming to enhance consumer rights and promote high-quality industry development [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 900 billion yuan, marking a significant increase in net MLF injection to 700 billion yuan for January, the largest in 11 months [2] - The tobacco industry is projected to achieve a total tax and profit of 1.657 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with total fiscal revenue reaching 1.58 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [2] Industry Developments - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry reported that beef cattle farming has been profitable for nine consecutive months, and the losses in dairy farming have been narrowing, with fresh milk prices stabilizing [3] - Major banks in China have announced the extension of personal consumption loan subsidy policies until December 31, 2026, expanding support to include credit card installment payments and increasing subsidy standards [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 93.6 billion yuan for special bonds to support over 4500 projects in various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [5] - The postal and express delivery industry in China achieved a record business volume of 21.651 billion items in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, and total industry revenue reaching 1.8 trillion yuan, up 6.1% [5] Company Announcements - Yushutech clarified that its actual shipment of humanoid robots in 2025 exceeded 5500 units, emphasizing that this figure does not include other types of robots [6] - Xiaomi Group announced a share buyback plan of up to 2.5 billion HKD to demonstrate confidence in its business outlook [7] - Shanghai Suiruan Technology's IPO application has been accepted, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan, marking another entry into the capital market for computing chip companies [7]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3] - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [3] - Beijing plans to increase computing power resources, aiming to build a total computing power scale of around 200,000 P by 2027 [4] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status has changed to "inquired" on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5] - The "CYZ1" spacecraft from Beijing Chuan Yue Technology Co. has received bookings for over 20 space tourists, with the first manned flight expected in 2028 [5] - Xiaomi Group has initiated a share repurchase plan of up to 2.5 billion HKD [7] - Several companies, including Hengyi Petrochemical and Huayuan Technology, have announced share repurchase plans ranging from 250 million to 1 billion yuan [7][9] - Various companies are projecting significant profit increases for 2025, with some expecting net profit growth of over 200% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) rates into the "0% era" is a result of structural interest rate cuts and banks' need to stabilize net interest margins, indicating a shift in asset allocation logic for residents and liability management for banks [1][3]. Group 1: Current Trends in Large-Denomination CDs - The issuance of large-denomination CDs is increasingly characterized by short-term products, with most banks focusing on 1-year or shorter maturities, while 3-year CDs have sharply decreased and 5-year products are nearly non-existent [2][3]. - Major banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, and CCB, have set the annual interest rate for 1-month and 3-month CDs at 0.9%, with minimum deposit amounts concentrated at 200,000 yuan, resulting in minimal income compared to regular fixed-term deposits [2][3]. - The trend of declining deposit rates has been ongoing since 2025, with average rates for various terms falling below 2%, indicating a significant shift in the banking landscape [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for Banks and Investors - The short-term nature of deposits is a dual result of banks adjusting their term structures and customers seeking increased liquidity, leading to a potential shortage of large-denomination CDs for long-term depositors [3][4]. - The pressure on banks' net interest margins has led to a strategic choice to lower CD rates and reduce the issuance of long-term products, aligning with the policy direction of facilitating economic benefits [3][6]. - The ongoing low interest rates are expected to continue, with predictions of further rate cuts in 2026, which will likely maintain the low-rate environment for large-denomination CDs [7][8].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The People's Bank of China plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, net injecting 700 billion yuan into the market, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - The State Council's food safety office is drafting national standards for prepared dishes to enhance consumer rights and promote high-quality industrial development [2] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Alibaba Group has decided to support its chip subsidiary "Pingtouge" for independent listing, with plans for restructuring to a mixed-ownership enterprise [5] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status has changed to "inquired," aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan to become the "first commercial aerospace stock" [6] - Xiaomi Group announced a buyback plan for up to 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars of its Class B shares [6] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Insights - International precious metals have surged, with spot gold breaking the 4,900 USD mark, reaching a high of 4,928 USD per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting 4,932.2 USD [4] - Public funds have focused on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock among public funds in Q4 2025 [4]

Market Performance - On January 22, the New York stock market opened higher, with all three major indices showing significant gains by the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 306.78 points to close at 49,384.01, a gain of 0.63%. The S&P 500 increased by 37.73 points to 6,913.35, up 0.55%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 211.195 points, closing at 23,436.02, a rise of 0.91% [1] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, seven out of eleven sectors experienced gains, with the Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors leading the way, rising by 1.57% and 1.22% respectively. Conversely, the Real Estate and Utilities sectors saw declines of 1.10% and 0.73% [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.7% and 2.8% year-over-year for October and November 2025, respectively, compared to a 2.8% increase in September. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, also showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% and 2.8% for the same months, nearing the 2.9% high seen in July and August [1] GDP Growth - Revised data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicated that the GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and an increase from the previous quarter's growth of 3.8% [2] Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment remains strong, with retail investors responding positively to geopolitical uncertainties by buying on dips. This behavior reflects a robust market foundation despite external challenges [3] Legal Issues - President Trump has filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and its CEO Jamie Dimon, claiming $5 billion in damages due to the bank's decision to stop providing services to him and his businesses following the January 6 Capitol riot. Despite this, JPMorgan's stock saw a slight increase of 0.53% by the close [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [2]. - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates [2]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be optimized to enhance support for major strategies and key areas, with recent policy adjustments already made to improve these tools [2]. Financial Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial markets and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [3]. - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold, while establishing mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [3]. Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC will optimize the monetary policy target system, emphasizing intermediate variables and reducing focus on quantitative targets to enhance the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [4][5]. - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be improved to facilitate the flow of central bank policy rates to market rates [4]. Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, expanding the scope of macro-prudential management to include new areas such as financial markets and internet finance [7]. - A comprehensive macro-prudential management toolbox will be developed, with a focus on standardization and practical application [7]. Support for Key Areas - The PBOC will increase policy support for expanding domestic demand, enhancing consumption, and supporting technological innovation and small enterprises [8]. - Specific measures include a dedicated 500 billion RMB for consumer and elderly care loans, and an increase in the quota for technology innovation loans from 800 billion RMB to 1.2 trillion RMB [8]. - Additional support for small and medium-sized enterprises includes increasing re-loan quotas and enhancing financing accessibility [8]. International Financial Cooperation - The PBOC will actively engage in global financial governance reforms and international cooperation, promoting a fair and inclusive global financial governance system [10]. - Efforts will include enhancing the internationalization of the RMB and developing a secure and efficient cross-border payment system [10].

在支持科技创新方面，货币政策支持力度持续加大。近期，中国人民银行宣布，增加科技创新和技术改 造再贷款额度，并将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域；合并设立科技创新与民营企业 债券风险分担工具，提供再贷款支持。 受访专家认为，上述两项举措将为科技创新注入持续稳定的金融动力：通过将"研发投入水平"作为核心 筛选标准，打破传统"重有形资产、轻创新能力"的授信逻辑；借助工具合并设计，破解民营中小科创企 业融资"断档"难题；而信贷与债券的"双轮驱动"模式，则构建起覆盖科技企业全生命周期的立体化融资 支持网络。 从"资产抵押"逻辑转向"创新能力"评价体系 记者自业内了解到，以往科技金融政策往往是"先看资产、再谈创新"，银行授信仍依赖抵押物、盈利规 模等传统财务指标，导致大量高研发投入、资产偏轻的初创型企业被挡在门外。 国家金融与发展实验室副主任曾刚对上海证券报记者表示，此次政策突破的本质在于从"资产抵押"逻辑 转向"创新能力"评价体系。"研发投入水平"这一硬核指标，将金融资源直接锚定企业的创新强度与技术 积累厚度，标志着货币政策工具从"看财报"转向"看研发"，有助于打破轻资产科创企业的信贷困境。 在曾刚看来，更 ...

Group 1 - The core inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, shows a moderate increase in consumer prices for October and November, with month-on-month increases of 0.2% and year-on-year increases of 2.7% in October and 2.8% in November [2][6] - Despite a significant drop from the peak levels post-pandemic, inflation continues to affect American households, with a rebound in goods inflation observed after tariffs were imposed by the Trump administration in spring [2][6] - The upcoming data will provide more decision-making basis for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the short term due to stable economic growth and low unemployment [2][6] Group 2 - The chief economist at KPMG noted that wealthy households are driving economic growth, masking the struggles expressed by many in consumer confidence surveys [3][7] - Personal income in the U.S. increased by $80 billion in November, showing a stable month-on-month growth of 0.3%, but real disposable income adjusted for inflation decreased by 0.1% in October and slightly rebounded by 0.1% in November, indicating ongoing price pressures on households [3][7][8] - The inflation rate in the U.S. has remained above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% since 2021, and as long as inflation stays close to 3%, some Federal Reserve officials may be cautious about rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The labor market data indicates that while the unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, the number of net new jobs has significantly declined, affecting recent graduates and long-term unemployed individuals [4][8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have remained low and stable, suggesting that layoffs in American companies are currently at a moderate level [4][8]