2026年作为"十五五"开局第一年，市场对宏观经济基本面预期相对乐观，整体预期实际增速在5% 附近，实现压力不大。具体分领域来看： 基建方面，预计呈前高后低走势，增速维持在6.5%附近，温和修复态势下化债仍为财政核心任 务； 制造业在新质生产力政策推动下，高端化、智能化、绿色化步伐加快，叠加出口红利，投资同比预 计在8%附近； 房地产对经济的负面冲击逐步降低，销售小幅负增长、投资跌幅温和收窄，整体固投呈温和修复趋 势； 回到整个市场的定价上看，一方面，明年一旦市场对于宏观的叙事相对比较乐观，对于债券市场可 能会出现阶段性的承压。但是，我们觉得明年的整个经济依然是在整个"十五五"期间是一个经济增速的 换挡，所以整体的经济虽然完成指标压力不大，但它的整个弹性也并不是特别高。换句话说，明年对于 债券来说是一个相对比较友好的年份，债券市场可能会重新回到跟经济基本面保持一定相关性的市场风 格，大概率今年的这种脱敏的特征可能会阶段性地消除。 十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显：配置端契合银行表外资产回表诉求，交易端可捕捉低利率 环境下的波段机会与票息收益，在市场回归基本面、波动加大的背景下，成为平衡风险与收益的优 ...

中证A500ETF（159338）12月25日收涨0.17%。 来源：Wind 央行货币政策委员会近日召开第四季度例会，明确要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳 定增长和物价合理回升。当前正处于"十五五"规划开局蓄势关键时期。随着政策红利持续释放，我国经 济总需求有望进一步回暖，经济增长动能切换有望加速推进，巩固资本市场长期向好逻辑。 中证A500指数凭借其对先进制造、信息技术等新质生产力领域的布局，能够比传统宽基指数更精确地 把握产业结构升级机遇。中证A500指数具备行业均衡配置特点，对细分龙头公司的覆盖更广泛，能够 为投资者在震荡整固、盈利逐步兑现的市场环境中，提供兼具安全垫与成长潜力的优质贝塔底盘。感兴 趣的投资者可以关注中证A500ETF（159338），一键布局各行业核心龙头，捕捉市场上涨收益。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能 ...

近日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次会议上作报告，汇 报了国家发展改革委关于第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议代表建议、批评和意见办理情况。 郑栅洁指出，今年国家发改委承办的2933件代表建议，主要聚焦基础设施建设、产业发展、社会民生、 绿色低碳发展、"三农"、区域重大战略、改革开放、重大项目等方面。国家发改委认真研究解决这些意 见诉求，积极将好建议纳入政策措施，统筹推动代表建议办理工作和发展改革中心工作互促共进。 国家发展和改革委员会关于 第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议 代表建议、批评和意见办理情况的报告 ——2025年12月22日在第十四届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第十九次会议上 国家发展和改革委员会主任 郑栅洁 全国人民代表大会常务委员会： 在推动解决实际问题方面，郑栅洁举例谈道："很多代表建议延长春节假期，我委认真分析研判，积极 推动优化节假日安排，2026年春节放假9天并减少调休，回应了社会期待，增强了人民群众的节日获得 感与幸福感。大数据监测显示，正面及中性情绪占比达到92.9%。" 关于"十五五"规划，郑栅洁指出，国家发改委正在组织拟订"十五五"规划《纲 ...

Group 1 - The core focus for Yancheng High-tech Zone in 2026 is to implement the "Five Major Actions" to drive development, emphasizing reform, innovation, and project execution [1] - The "Major Project Breakthrough" action aims to strengthen key industries such as new generation information technology, high-end equipment, and new energy, while also focusing on future industries like third-generation semiconductors, advanced materials, and artificial intelligence [1] - The "Industrial Scale Leap" action is designed to enhance the scale and quality of industries, with a focus on creating a national-level flexible microelectronics industry cluster and supporting the growth of leading enterprises like Weixin Electronics [1] Group 2 - The "Integration of Science and Industry Empowerment" action seeks to enhance the synergy between technological innovation and industrial development, aiming to establish a national key R&D program for high-tech achievements [2] - The "Urban Economic Doubling" action focuses on coordinated planning of industrial development, urban morphology, and talent needs, promoting the construction of a vibrant integrated demonstration area [2] - The "Park Reform Demonstration" action emphasizes the need for deeper reforms in areas such as investment attraction, industrial cultivation, and technological innovation, aiming to create a stable and transparent business environment [3]

External Environment - The uncertainty of U.S. policies significantly impacts the global economic order, with frequent changes in tariff policies since the Trump administration took office in early 2025 [2] - The core goal of China's economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to lay the foundation for achieving a per capita GDP of $23,000 by 2035, which is necessary to be classified as a moderately developed economy [2][3] Economic Growth Drivers - Despite a complex external environment, China's economic foundation is solid, with a focus on promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and strengthening exports to stimulate internal growth [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, indicating its critical role as the main engine of growth [4] - Investment in high-tech industries is expected to become a significant growth driver, with a focus on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [5] - The export market is diversifying, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, while the structure of export products is shifting towards high-value-added items [6] Policy Outlook - Macroeconomic policies in 2026 will continue to support stable economic operation, with ample room for both fiscal and monetary policies [7] - The government debt ratio is at a manageable level of 68.7%, allowing for sustainable fiscal policies that focus on technology innovation and basic livelihood support [7] - Monetary policy adjustments are facilitated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, providing a favorable environment for domestic economic stability [8] Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, supported by government emphasis on capital market stability and a solid liquidity foundation [9] - The technology sector is identified as a core investment focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant advancements in AI and a complete industrial system [10] - Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to remain strong due to increasing global economic uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold [11]

Group 1 - The study class focused on the implementation of the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party, emphasizing the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its strategic support role in national development [1][2] - Participants engaged in discussions about the role of land spatial planning and the domestic high-end chip industry, aligning with the development goals and strategies of Chengdu [1] - There was a consensus on the need to deepen understanding of the development strategies and key tasks outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan," including "innovation-driven, open leadership, integration of science and industry, and strong counties and active regions" [1] Group 2 - The summary speech highlighted the Fourth Plenary Session and provincial and municipal meeting spirits as action guides for current and future work [2] - Emphasis was placed on translating the municipal requirements into practical actions, focusing on national strategy service, high-quality development, and promoting common prosperity [2] - The need for improved planning, organization, and standards in work was stressed, along with preparations for upcoming meetings and contributions to Chengdu's "14th Five-Year Plan" development [2]

Group 1 - The company held a meeting to gather opinions from retired senior officials regarding the "14th Five-Year" development plan, emphasizing the importance of implementing the latest directives from the central government and the need for high-quality development in the "15th Five-Year" plan [1][3] - Senior officials expressed their appreciation for the achievements during the "14th Five-Year" period and provided suggestions on energy supply, technological innovation, and green transformation [3] - The company aims to transition from being "large and comprehensive" to "strong and superior," focusing on three transformations: from conventional energy to green low-carbon, from traditional operations to market-oriented approaches, and enhancing its role in energy supply and national energy strategy [4] Group 2 - The company plans to align its "15th Five-Year" plan with the central government's goals, ensuring it supports the broader economic and social development objectives while fulfilling its social responsibilities [4] - Key strategies include enhancing value, leading innovation, upgrading industries, empowering reforms, and improving party building to achieve high-quality and sustainable development [4]

2025年，A股市场走出近年来少见的低波动慢牛，上证指数也时隔10年一度回到4000点上方。而在2024 年末，光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时就曾旗帜鲜明地表示继续看 好2025年的市场。 那么，2026年A股大势是否有望迎来"三连阳"？"9·24"行情以来，在"科技牛"主导行情的背景下，未来 市场风格是否将发生一定切换？2026年市场又有哪些核心主线值得关注？在"十五五"规划开局之年，政 策将有哪些值得期待的发力点？带着这些投资者关注的问题，近日《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称 NBD）再度对张宇生进行了独家专访。 张宇生：站在当前时点，我对2026年A股市场依然保持积极乐观，核心判断是"慢牛格局延续，结构机 会凸显"。前期市场上涨源于政策支持与资金面改善的共振，而2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，各 项支撑条件将更加扎实。宏观层面有政策红利持续释放，产业层面有新质生产力加速培育，资金层面有 居民资产配置向权益市场迁移的长期趋势，这些因素将共同托举市场。虽然过程中可能会有阶段性波 动，但整体向上的趋势值得期待。 NBD：如果2026年A股市场仍然有机会，您觉得市场上涨的动力来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a bull market in 2025, supported by policies, valuations, earnings, and capital, with a notable differentiation in market segments anticipated in 2026 as the "14th Five-Year Plan" begins [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The core variable driving the stock market in 2026 is expected to be earnings, transitioning from valuation-driven to earnings-driven performance, with all sectors presenting investment opportunities [2] - The market style in 2026 is anticipated to be more balanced compared to 2025, as various sectors, including traditional industries, are expected to show earnings recovery and valuation repair [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In 2026, institutional funds are likely to shift towards new consensus areas beyond just technology growth sectors, expanding into traditional industries as the overall market enters an earnings release phase [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving domestic consumption and technological self-reliance, indicating significant long-term investment opportunities in these areas [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors should focus on balancing long-term and short-term investment strategies, adjusting their portfolio based on individual risk preferences and return expectations [4] - For long-term investments, attention should be paid to industry trends and fundamental changes, while short-term opportunities require monitoring of price fluctuations and relative valuations [4] Group 4: Changes in Valuation Logic - The emphasis on "technological self-reliance" in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reshape the valuation system of A-shares, with a potential reduction in mid-term volatility of technology stock valuations [6] - The focus on core technology autonomy and industry policy support may increase the weight of non-financial indicators in valuation assessments [6] - Valuation logic in the technology sector may evolve from a focus on individual segments to a more integrated approach across entire industry chains, creating a linked valuation framework [6] Group 5: Recommendations for 2026 - A balanced and long-term investment approach is recommended for 2026, with a focus on fundamental factors such as corporate earnings, while avoiding speculative trading [7] - The current market conditions suggest that equity assets still hold mid-to-high investment value, despite some high valuations potentially leading to short-term volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively addressing the suggestions and criticisms from representatives at the National People's Congress, focusing on infrastructure, industry development, social welfare, green low-carbon development, and major projects [1] Group 1: Suggestions and Responses - The NDRC has handled 2,933 suggestions this year, primarily related to infrastructure, industry, social welfare, green development, and major projects [1] - The NDRC is integrating valuable suggestions into policy measures to enhance the effectiveness of its work [1] - A notable response includes extending the Spring Festival holiday to 9 days in 2026, which has received a positive sentiment rate of 92.9% based on big data monitoring [1] Group 2: 14th Five-Year Plan - The NDRC is drafting the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with 242 suggestions related to this plan, proposing significant policies and projects [1] - The NDRC is combining the handling of these suggestions with the planning activities to ensure comprehensive research and adoption [1] Group 3: Economic Governance and Innovation - The NDRC is working to enhance macroeconomic governance efficiency, with 347 representatives providing over 700 specific suggestions on technology and industry innovation [1] - The NDRC is categorizing and analyzing 246 suggestions related to the development of revolutionary old areas, aiming to incorporate them into relevant policy documents to boost local development [1]