食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 食饮行情延续，多数子板块表现优异 ——食品饮料行业 5 月月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 ⚫ 食品饮料板块微涨，受白酒拖累较大。主力资金净流出，小单资金净流入。成 交量有所回落，但仍高上年同期。2025 年 5 月，食品饮料板块成分区间涨跌幅 为 0.25%，表现受到市值权重占比较大的白酒板块的拖累。5 月，食品饮料板 块的主力资金合计净流出 15.43 亿元；同期，小单净流入 15.57 亿元，显示散 户资金的做多意愿。5 月，食品饮料板块的成交量合计 350.51 亿股，趋势上有 所回落，但远高于上年同期。 资料来源：中原证券 相关报告 《食品饮料行业月报：食饮行情延续，零食、 乳品领衔》 2025-05-14 《食品饮料行业月报：食饮行情回暖，要素价 格延续回落态势——食品饮料行业 3 月月报》 2025-04-09 《食品饮料行业点评报告：提振消费政策有望 持续催化板块行情》 2025-03-18 联系人：李智 本报告版 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline of the once-dominant bakery brand, Tao Li Bread, reflecting a broader crisis in the traditional packaged bread industry as it struggles to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competitive pressures from new entrants and alternative products [3][10][19]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tao Li Bread's revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year to 1.201 billion yuan, while net profit dropped by 27.07% to 84.04 million yuan, marking the worst quarterly performance since its listing [3][4]. - From 2021 to 2024, revenue growth rates decreased from 6.24% to -9.93%, with net profit declining for four consecutive years [4][10]. Market Dynamics - The bakery market is experiencing a shift from large-scale production to precise operations, with Tao Li's struggles mirroring the challenges faced by other traditional brands like Man Ke Dun and Da Li, which have also seen declines or exits from the market [10][19]. - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with new brands like Xiao Bai Xin Li Ruan and Hao Shi gaining traction, while established brands face challenges from convenience stores and fresh-baked alternatives [6][10][33]. Competitive Landscape - The top five companies in China's baking industry include Da Li Yuan, Tao Li Bread, Pan Pan, Oreo, and Xu Fu Ji, with a highly dispersed competitive landscape where the top three companies hold only 9.2% market share [6][10]. - The rise of convenience stores offering fresh sandwiches and baked goods is significantly impacting traditional brands, as they cater to immediate consumer needs [10][12]. Consumer Preferences - Consumer perceptions are shifting, with a growing acceptance of medium and long shelf-life products, challenging the traditional notion that short shelf-life equals freshness [29][30]. - New brands are leveraging innovative marketing and product differentiation to capture market share, while traditional brands struggle with product innovation and adapting to new consumer demands [30][42]. Industry Transformation - The article emphasizes that the challenges faced by Tao Li Bread are indicative of a larger transformation in the industry, where traditional brands must navigate a landscape increasingly dominated by new entrants and changing consumer behaviors [13][46]. - The competition is no longer just among similar brands but also includes a variety of channels and formats, such as convenience stores and online platforms, which are reshaping consumer purchasing habits [46][60].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in valuable experiences rather than blindly cutting expenses, particularly in the context of enhancing reading experiences during the 618 shopping festival [1]. Group 1: Recommendations and Offers - The article promotes exclusive insights from First Financial, highlighting AI-assisted decision-making tools that help investors not miss key investment opportunities [2][18]. - It offers a dual satisfaction package of digital content and print journals at a significant discount, claiming to provide an immersive reading experience [2]. - A specific offer is highlighted where a subscription to deep reporting and quality layout is available at a reduced price, ensuring that every penny spent can lead to broader perspectives and enjoyable reading time [4]. Group 2: City Rankings and Insights - The article mentions the "2025 New First-Tier City Charm Rankings," which evaluates 337 cities in China based on five dimensions: commercial resource aggregation, city hub characteristics, urban activity levels, new economic competitiveness, and future potential [6]. Group 3: Investment Literature - A recommendation for "Poor Charlie's Almanack," which compiles investment philosophies and insights from Charlie Munger, is presented as essential reading for investors, teaching them how to think, live, and invest effectively [21].

Core Insights - The smart home industry is experiencing explosive growth, with significant year-on-year increases in various segments such as smart toilets, smart locks, and smart drying racks, indicating a shift towards higher quality development alongside consumption upgrades [2] - The industry is receiving unprecedented policy support, with government initiatives encouraging consumers to purchase green smart appliances through subsidies and trade-in programs, which have greatly boosted sales [2] - Technological advancements, including the use of DeepSeek models, smart ecosystems, and edge computing, are key drivers of rapid development in the smart home sector, enabling devices to understand, learn, and make decisions, marking the arrival of a truly intelligent and personalized living era [2] - Consumer demand for improved quality of life is driving the smart home industry's growth, as consumers increasingly value emotional experiences and design aesthetics in home products, leading to personalized services and enhanced user experiences [2][3] Industry Dynamics - The combination of policy benefits, technological revolutions, and consumption upgrades is fostering robust growth in the smart home industry [3] - Chinese companies are gaining a more significant position in the global smart home market through technological innovation and ecosystem development [3] - Consumers are enjoying a more convenient, comfortable, and warm home life as technology integrates with daily living [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the notion of China being the world's largest consumer market based on selective product consumption data is misleading and does not reflect the true state of consumer capability and economic structure in China [1][6]. Consumption Data Analysis - Claims that China's consumption of pork, freshwater fish, cars, and air conditioners surpasses that of the U.S. are based on selective data, ignoring the overall consumption capacity and economic context [1][2]. - China's Engel's coefficient stands at 28.4%, indicating that a significant portion of household spending is still on basic needs, unlike the U.S. at 7.3%, which reflects a more developed consumption structure [2][6]. Economic Structure and Consumer Capability - The article emphasizes that comparing consumption based on specific products like pork and fish is flawed, as it does not account for income levels and overall spending power [1][4]. - The disparity in income levels between China and the U.S. suggests that China's lower wages directly impact its consumption capacity, making it inappropriate to use purchasing power parity without considering these factors [4][5]. Misleading Comparisons - The article critiques the use of purchasing power parity as a basis for comparison, highlighting its core flaw of not considering wage and income level differences [3][4]. - It questions the validity of claims that China's retail sales can be inflated to match or exceed those of the U.S. based on simplified currency comparisons [3][4]. Policy Implications - The article stresses the need for effective measures to increase residents' income and stimulate consumption rather than engaging in debates about being the largest consumer market [6]. - It highlights that addressing the challenges of low consumer capability and income disparity is crucial for China's economic transformation in the coming decade [6].

Core Viewpoint - The kitchen and bathroom appliance market is experiencing significant differentiation, with varying performance among companies due to the downturn in the real estate sector and changing consumer preferences [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Companies focused on integrated stoves, such as Mars and Zhejiang Meida, have seen substantial declines in performance, with Mars reporting a 35.7% drop in revenue to 1.38 billion yuan in 2024 and a 95.5% decrease in net profit [3][4]. - Zhejiang Meida's revenue in Q1 2025 fell by 63.97% to approximately 98.36 million yuan, with net profit dropping by about 90% [3][4]. - The overall retail sales of integrated stoves in China decreased by 30.6% in 2024, with Q4 experiencing a 35.3% decline [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - The decline in demand for new home renovations, consumer confidence issues, and intensified competition are the primary challenges for integrated stove companies [4]. - Companies are adjusting strategies, with Mars exploring new growth areas such as dishwashers and enhancing brand strategy [4]. Group 3: Traditional Appliance Companies - Traditional kitchen appliance leaders like Vatti and Boss Electric have maintained relatively stable performance, with Vatti achieving a revenue increase of 2.23% to 6.372 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6]. - Boss Electric reported a slight revenue increase of 0.1% to 11.212 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 8.97% [6][7]. - Both companies benefited from the "old-for-new" appliance policy, which supported their sales channels [7]. Group 4: Product Strategy and Innovation - Vatti is focusing on high-end product development, launching new products like the "Time Capsule" series and investing in R&D, with expenses reaching approximately 263 million yuan in 2024 [7][8]. - Boss Electric faced challenges in expanding new product categories, with sales of integrated stoves and other products declining [8]. - The market share of Vatti's ultra-thin range hood reached 37.17%, maintaining the top position in the online market [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The kitchen and bathroom appliance industry is in a deep adjustment phase, with potential for marginal improvement in the second half of 2025 due to supportive policies and market recovery [9][10]. - The continuation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be a significant driver for the kitchen appliance market in 2025, with related product categories showing positive growth [10][11]. - The competitive landscape is likely to shift, with market concentration increasing as leading companies adapt to changing consumer trends and focus on innovation [11].

Group 1 - The consumer price index has not met expectations, currently at -0.1%, making it unlikely to achieve the 2% target set in the report, which is already lower than last year's 3% target [2] - Achieving the 2% target is crucial, especially in 2025, as it will be a significant year due to an unprecedented tariff war that will reshape the economy's reliance on external demand [3] - The macroeconomic strategy involves stimulating domestic consumption to counteract the effects of the tariff war, emphasizing the need for a strong internal market to avoid factory closures and unemployment [3] Group 2 - The challenge lies in boosting consumer spending, with strategies including lowering deposit rates and providing consumption subsidies, but market reactions have been tepid, leading to concerns among scholars [5] - Direct cash distribution to consumers is suggested as a more effective method to stimulate spending, allowing consumers to dictate market resource allocation rather than pushing them to buy surplus products [5][9] - The lack of positive expectations is a significant barrier to consumption and investment, with banks holding vast amounts of deposits due to a pessimistic outlook on the private economy and structural issues in income distribution [7] Group 3 - The most effective consumption stimulus policy is direct cash distribution combined with improving expectations, aiming to reduce household debt and promote consumption upgrades [9] - Addressing insufficient domestic demand is critical, especially in the context of the tariff war, as failure to do so could lead to ongoing economic risks [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the phenomenon of consumption upgrade, highlighting its transformative impact on individual lifestyles and the broader economy [1][6]. Group 1: Changes in Consumer Behavior - The shift from basic needs to quality and emotional value in consumption is evident, with consumers increasingly prioritizing "how good" products are over mere availability [1][3]. - The middle-income group has expanded significantly, with over 400 million people now enjoying a per capita disposable income exceeding 40,000 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Trends - The retail sales of social consumer goods are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, marking an increase of over 80% from 25.9 trillion yuan in 2014 [3]. - The "Z generation" and elderly consumers are key demographics driving consumption upgrades, with the market for "Guochao" (national trend) expected to reach 2.29 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The rural retail market is also expanding, with a projected retail sales figure of 6.67 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 4.3% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Quality and Experience in Consumption - There is a notable increase in spending on education and entertainment, with a 13.9% growth in the first quarter of the year, outpacing the overall consumer spending growth of 8.7% [2]. - The knowledge payment industry is expected to grow from 2.65 billion yuan in 2016 to 280 billion yuan this year, indicating a strong demand for enriched experiences [4]. Group 4: Opportunities for High-Quality Development - The interaction between production and consumption is becoming more frequent, leading to a virtuous cycle where demand drives supply and vice versa [5]. - The implementation of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to significantly boost the sales of energy-efficient appliances and new energy vehicles [5]. - The service retail sector is projected to grow by 6.2% in 2024, with service consumption related to consumption structure upgrades maintaining double-digit growth [5].

■田鹏 国家邮政局发布的中国快递发展指数报告显示，今年以来，快递企业通过不断提高末端智能化水平、持续增强航空保障能 力和稳步拓展国际寄递市场等举措，推动快递发展能力指数持续走高。其中，4月份快递发展能力指数达224.1，同比提升 1.4%。 这些数据背后，是快递网络对城乡末梢的深度渗透，以及对全球市场的稳步开拓。当快递网络以"毛细血管"般的渗透力消 除了地域壁垒，消费者的选择将不再局限于本地市场，而是得以拥抱全球市场，追求个性化、多元化的消费需求，与当下消费 升级的趋势同频共振，持续拓宽消费市场的边界与深度。 包裹"送得快"，培育壮大新型消费。近年来，快递行业在速度与覆盖范围上持续突破。以生鲜寄递领域为例，为确保岭南 佳果荔枝新鲜直达，端午期间，广东全省邮政快递企业推出多项创新举措。中国邮政新增12条航空线路，实现48小时精准触达 目标省份市县镇三级行政区域；顺丰、京东等企业同步开启湛江至北京、杭州等地的全货机航线，单日新增运能超200吨，构 建起覆盖44个城市的"次日达"保鲜运输网络。 寄递时效的提升不仅直接提高了消费者的服务体验，还加速推动了消费逻辑的重塑。对消费者而言，包裹"送得快"打破了 地域与时间的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent increase in job vacancies in the US, with available positions rising to 7.39 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.1 million, indicating a stronger employment situation than anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a 72.4% probability of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood of cuts in June and July remains low at 2.2% and 22.4% respectively [1] - The A-share market is currently in a bullish phase, with a target of 3600 points, and the key index level to watch is 3417, which, if broken, could accelerate the market's upward movement [1][2] Group 2 - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese stock market is improving, with analysts raising EPS expectations for the Hang Seng Index following a trade consensus between China and the US [2][5] - The allocation of foreign capital in Chinese stocks remains low at approximately 4.6%, down from 6.1% in October of the previous year, indicating potential for growth as foreign investors become more optimistic [5] - Retail investor enthusiasm has decreased significantly, with the sentiment index dropping from 2.0 in September last year to 0.3, contributing to weaker performance in thematic stocks [7] Group 3 - The consumer sector is experiencing a strong performance, with segments such as gold jewelry, beauty care, and food and beverage leading the gains, driven by a shift in consumer spending patterns due to weakened exports [12] - The consumption structure in China is undergoing an upgrade, with a focus on quality and self-satisfying consumption, as evidenced by the rise of brands that emphasize product quality and consumer experience [12][13] - The "self-pleasing" consumption trend is gaining traction, with 46.28% of young consumers prioritizing self-pleasure in their spending, and the market for such consumption reaching 4.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 32% of total household consumption [13][15]