Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Group 1 - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted industrial transformation, consumption demand, and economic circulation [1][2] - From April 2024 to July 2025, the procurement amount of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with industrial enterprises seeing a 9.8% increase [1] - The procurement amount for information transmission software and technology service industries grew by 27.8% and 28.3% respectively, indicating strong support for industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated diverse consumer demand, with sales of daily household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively from April 2024 to July 2025 [1] - The retail sales of furniture and sanitary ware grew by 30.1% and 13.6% respectively, while the service robot manufacturing industry saw a 51.1% increase [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles surged by 81.7%, reflecting the policy's significant impact on the automotive sector [1] Group 3 - The "supply and demand smoothness" has fostered a virtuous economic cycle, with the "Two New" policies driving retail demand and subsequently enhancing supply-side manufacturing efforts [2] - Manufacturing sales revenue increased by 5.8% year-on-year, contributing to a more efficient internal economic circulation [2] - The tax authority plans to strengthen the "policy + service" dual-drive approach to ensure the continued effectiveness of the "Two New" policies for high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a total of 2,370 billion yuan in 30-year special bonds and 10-year government bonds [1] - The 30-year bonds will have a competitive bidding face value of 830 billion yuan, with interest starting from August 25, 2025, and paid semi-annually [1] - A total of 11 special long-term bonds will be issued in the third quarter of this year [2] Group 2 - The government plans to issue 13,000 billion yuan in special long-term bonds this year, with 8,000 billion yuan allocated for "two heavy" project construction and 5,000 billion yuan for "two new" policies [3] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 6,583 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds in the first half of the year to support "two heavy" projects and "two new" initiatives [3] - The issuance of 10-year fixed-rate bonds will have a competitive bidding face value of 1,540 billion yuan, with interest starting from August 25, 2025 [4]

2025年以来，国家发展改革委认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于实施"两新"政策的决策部署，会同有关 部门和各地方优化设备更新支持范围，完善项目申报审核标准，严格做好项目筛选把关，推动重点领域 实施设备更新。近期，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕，支持 工业、用能设备、能源电力、交通运输、物流、环境基础设施、教育、文旅、医疗、住宅老旧电梯、电 子信息、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、回收循环利用等领域约8400个项目，带动总投资超过1万亿 元。 国家发展改革委表示，下一步，将按照党中央、国务院决策部署，会同各有关方面持续加强统筹协调， 扎实推进项目建设，推动尽快形成更多实物工作量，严格项目和资金闭环管理，确保中央资金用到实 处，更好发挥"两新"政策效能。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 国家发展改革委8月13日消息，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已于近期 下达完毕。 ...

Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for the eighth consecutive day, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reaching 21,752.10 billion yuan, an increase of 2,700.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3][16] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.62%[3][16] - A total of 2,733 stocks rose while 2,458 stocks fell across the market[3][16] Sector and Style Analysis - The performance ranking of indices was: Stability > Cyclicals > Consumption > Neutral > Financials > Growth[3][21] - Among the 30 first-level industries, the top performers were Construction (1.38%), Steel (1.26%), and Non-ferrous Metals (1.19%), while the laggards included Computers (-2.13%), Electronics (-1.22%), and Media (-1.03%)[3][21] Fund Flow - On August 13, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 275 million yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 107.25 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see a net inflow of 220.48 billion yuan[4][25] - The trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF increased significantly, with changes of +3.82 billion yuan and +11.91 billion yuan respectively[4][30] Global Market Trends - On August 13, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.58% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.30%[5][34] - The US stock market indices generally rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.10% and the S&P 500 by 1.13%[6][34]

（文章来源：证券时报） 下一步，国家发展改革委将按照党中央、国务院决策部署，会同各有关方面持续加强统筹协调，扎实推 进项目建设，推动尽快形成更多实物工作量，严格项目和资金闭环管理，确保中央资金用到实处，更好 发挥"两新"政策效能。 来源：国家发展改革委 今年1880亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资补助资金下达完毕。 2025年以来，国家发展改革委认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于实施"两新"政策的决策部署，会同有关 部门和各地方优化设备更新支持范围，完善项目申报审核标准，严格做好项目筛选把关，推动重点领域 实施设备更新。近期，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕，支持 工业、用能设备、能源电力、交通运输、物流、环境基础设施、教育、文旅、医疗、住宅老旧电梯、电 子信息、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、回收循环利用等领域约8400个项目，带动总投资超过1万亿 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the allocation of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support equipment renewal investment, aiming to enhance various sectors and stimulate overall investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1]. Group 1: Investment Allocation - A total of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support equipment renewal investments since 2025 [1]. - The funding will support approximately 8,400 projects across multiple sectors, including industrial, energy, transportation, and healthcare [1]. Group 2: Project Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to optimizing the support scope for equipment renewal and improving project application standards [1]. - The NDRC will continue to strengthen coordination and ensure effective project management to maximize the impact of the funding [1].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been completed, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Investment and Funding - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has implemented the "Two New" policy since 2025, optimizing the scope of equipment renewal support and improving project application and review standards [1] - The 188 billion yuan in funding will support projects in industrial, energy, transportation, logistics, environmental infrastructure, education, cultural tourism, healthcare, and other sectors [1] - The initiative is expected to drive total investments of over 1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant multiplier effect on the economy [1] Group 2: Future Actions and Management - The NDRC plans to enhance coordination and advance project construction to quickly generate more tangible outcomes [1] - There will be strict management of projects and funds to ensure that central government funding is effectively utilized [1] - The focus will be on maximizing the effectiveness of the "Two New" policy through diligent oversight and project execution [1]

北京商报讯（记者 金朝力 程靓）8月13日，据国家发展改革委消息，2025年以来，国家发展改革委认真 贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于实施"两新"政策的决策部署，会同有关部门和各地方优化设备更新支持范 围，完善项目申报审核标准，严格做好项目筛选把关，推动重点领域实施设备更新。近期，2025年超长 期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕，支持工业、用能设备、能源电力、交通 运输、物流、环境基础设施、教育、文旅、医疗、住宅老旧电梯、电子信息、设施农业、粮油加工、安 全生产、回收循环利用等领域约8400个项目，带动总投资超过1万亿元。下一步，国家发展改革委将按 照党中央、国务院决策部署，会同各有关方面持续加强统筹协调，扎实推进项目建设，推动尽快形成更 多实物工作量，严格项目和资金闭环管理，确保中央资金用到实处，更好发挥"两新"政策效能。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024[2] - In June 2025, industrial profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 4.8 percentage points from May[3] - Cumulatively, industrial profits for January to June 2025 fell by 1.8% year-on-year, worsening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first five months of 2025[3] Group 2: Cost and Profit Margins - The operating profit margin for January to June 2025 was 5.15%, down 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year[4] - Costs per 100 yuan of revenue were 85.54 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.07 yuan from the first five months of 2025, but still higher than the 85.27 yuan recorded in the same period last year[6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable in industrial enterprises was 69.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days, indicating improved cash flow[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of 7.6% year-on-year, while private enterprises experienced a profit growth of 1.7%, reflecting a mixed performance under challenging conditions[8] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed resilience, with a 7.0% increase in revenue and a profit growth of 9.6% in June 2025, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth[14] - The midstream manufacturing sector's profit share has increased for four consecutive months, reaching 48.6% in June 2025, while downstream sectors continue to face weak demand[13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering "involution" is expected to support industrial profit recovery in the second half of 2025[18] - Ongoing uncertainties in external demand and trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., may continue to pressure export-dependent industries[19]