Policy Highlights - The focus of recent policies is on "grabbing the start" for 2026, with five key areas of emphasis, including early policy implementation and support for new industries[2] - The 2026 "Two New" policy was released on December 30, 2025, aiming for a smoother subsidy rhythm, with total funding expected to be lower than the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025[2][8] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy for personal housing sales, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, and exempting properties sold after two years in major cities[8][33] Economic Measures - The State Council emphasized the importance of the national water network construction as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with significant investment and multi-department collaboration required[3][15] - The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a focus on maintaining low financing costs and enhancing policy effectiveness, with potential adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates in Q1 2026[5][24] Local Initiatives - Local governments are proactively implementing measures to support service consumption and financial technology, with provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong taking the lead in economic recovery efforts[9][36] - Beijing has relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which may prompt other major cities to follow suit, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[11][36] Industry Policies - The China Securities Regulatory Commission finalized the public fund sales fee reform, which is expected to benefit investors by over 50 billion yuan annually[7][25] - The "old for new" policy for 2026 will see a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support, with total funding likely to be around 250 billion yuan, down from 300 billion yuan in 2025[2][29]

①春季躁动下成交热度较低的热门主题机会：有色/新能源/机器人/半导体等； ②关注业绩预期改善的非银，顺周期（煤炭、有色）。 报告正文 一、春季躁动已经启动 本轮春季躁动或可更多归因于流动性驱动。我们认为春季躁动行情更多为时间统计规律，启动与否不必苛求确切的信号，12/17至今上证指数实现11连 阳，指数点位从3822上升至3969点，全A成交额从1.7万亿上升至2.2万亿，换手率从1.6%提升至1.8%，春季躁动已经启动。我们判断本轮春季躁动可更多 归因为风险偏好回升下的流动性驱动：在美日央行两只靴子落地后，外围不确定干扰得到缓解，对市场风险偏好形成支撑。同时，国内地产风险得到一定 对冲与缓释：一方面，万科债券展期虽未获得通过，但宽限期从5个工作日延长至30个交易日（宽限期届满日定为2026年1月28日），为后续谈判留下更充 裕的缓冲时间；另一方面，12月30日财政部、税务总局联合发布关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告，将未满2年住房销售增值税征收率从5%下调至 3%，通过降低交易成本减少"卖旧买新"的循环阻碍，有助于去库存促进房地产市场预期向好。从资金面上来看，以两融/ETF为代表的资金出现明显放 量，12/ ...

中经记者 童海华 北京报道 本次政策以"新国补 选央企"为主题，具体权益涵盖：可享至高2万元的"新春有国补"红包、至高1万元 的"马上领红包"开年红包、至高8000元的"超级大置换"补贴，以及"金融添鸿运"提供的至高5年0息等多 种优惠方案，用户在2026年1月1日至2月28日期间下订可享。深蓝汽车始终以用户为中心，本次政策的 推出，旨在切实降低用户购车门槛，提升消费体验。 为响应国家2026年"两新"政策，促进汽车消费与产业升级，深蓝汽车于2025年12月31日发布2026年新春 购车政策，推出一系列与政策导向高度契合的购车权益，以实际行动助力行业高质量发展。此次深蓝汽 车推出的购车政策包括国补红包、开年红包、置换补贴及金融优惠在内等多重福利，以诚意回馈用户， 彰显央企责任担当。 转自：中国经营网 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 躁动主线与扩散——策略周聚焦 1、关注春季躁动下成交热度较低的热门主题机会：有色/新能源/机器人/半导 体等。当前热门主题赛道中，除商业航天概念影响下的卫星通信与通信设备成 交热度处于高位，其余有色金属、新能源、机器人、半导体材料设备等主题成 交热度均处于历史中低水平，后续随着春季躁动的持续发酵成交有望向当前热 度偏低主题扩散。 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆资金净流入重回历史高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-29 《【华创策略】大类资产年关盘点——策略周聚 焦》 2025-12-28 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 净流入创今年 4 月以 来新高——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计 周报》 2025-12-22 《【华创策略】储备躁动品种——策略周聚焦》 2、关注业绩预期改善的非银，科技制造（电子、电新），顺周期（煤炭、有色）。 ①非银：重视保险短期保费开门红&中期投资收益增厚业绩表现。②顺周期： 经济工作会议定调&"十五五"开局之年，财政发力基建项目有望加码，关注 紧供给的有色/化工/建材/钢铁/煤炭。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期； ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend, which typically sees a decline of 0.3 points over the past decade [1][5][6]. The main driving force behind this increase is the upward shift in the economic center of high-tech manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The absolute economic performance is led by the pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication electronics industries, supported by the upcoming "two new" policies in 2026, which include subsidies for digital and smart products, and vehicle replacement policies [1][9]. - The computer communication electronics sector has maintained a PMI above 52 for five consecutive months, driven by the "AI+" industry trend [1][9]. - Export orders have rebounded, with the textile industry’s export order index rising above 60 and the pharmaceutical industry’s export order index reaching 55 [1][9]. Group 2: Marginal Changes - Industries showing improvement in economic performance include pharmaceuticals, textiles, electrical machinery, petrochemicals, and metal products, with the pharmaceutical sector potentially benefiting from the flu season [2][12]. - The petrochemical industry has stabilized at a low level, with production indicators rising significantly by 15 points, likely due to stabilizing oil prices in late December [2][12]. - The electrical machinery sector's improvement is linked to the continuation of the 2026 "old-for-new" appliance policy and strong demand in the energy storage sector, with the sector's factory price index rising by 4.9 points in December [2][12]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology continue to maintain high levels of economic performance, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its economic index [2][15]. - Among the seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest economic performance, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are in the 50-55 range [15]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction industry has returned to economic expansion after four months, with the real estate sector showing a slight increase of 0.5 points in its index [3][16]. - The construction activity index for civil engineering rose by 1.2 points, driven by the concentrated release of new policy financial tools and favorable construction conditions in southern regions [3][16]. - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to economic expansion [3][17]. Group 5: Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index rose by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the performance [3][22]. - The financial services and capital market services sectors have business activity indices above 60, indicating high economic performance [3][22]. - The accommodation and catering services sector showed the lowest performance, declining in line with weak consumer mobility data [3][22].

Manufacturing Sector - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 points to 50.1, significantly above the seasonal trend where the average decline over the past 10 years was 0.3 points[3] - Only 4 out of 15 sub-sectors are in the expansion zone, a decrease of 4 from November, with specialized equipment, non-metallic mineral products, and agricultural products falling below the prosperity line[3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5, up 2.4 points from the previous month, indicating strong growth in this sector[3] Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical, automotive, textile, and computer communication sectors lead in prosperity, with PMI values between 55-60, while the chemical, metal products, and non-metallic mineral sectors are between 45-50[4] - The pharmaceutical sector's production and demand may be influenced by the flu season, while the petrochemical sector stabilized with a production increase of 15 points[5] - The electrical machinery sector saw a 1.3-point increase in PMI, driven by strong demand in home appliances and new energy sectors[6] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology maintain high prosperity levels, with biotechnology PMI rising by 2.7 points[7] - Among seven emerging industries, biotechnology has the highest prosperity level at 60, while new energy vehicles and next-generation information technology are between 50-55[7] Construction Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose by 3.2 points to 52.9, marking a return to expansion after four months[9] - The real estate sector saw a slight increase of 0.5 points, with construction activities improving due to favorable policies and funding availability[8] - New orders in the construction sector increased by 1.3 points, with real estate new orders rising by 8.2 points[10] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index increased by 0.2 points to 49.7, with online information technology services and postal services leading the growth[12] - The hospitality and catering sectors experienced the lowest prosperity levels, with indices below 45, reflecting weak consumer activity[12] - The financial services sector remains strong, with indices above 60, indicating robust performance in monetary and capital market services[12]

Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices showed mixed performance during the New Year holiday, with the US indices collectively declining: Nasdaq down 1.6%, Dow Jones down 1.4%, and S&P 500 down 1.1% [2][7] - Long-term government bond yields in major developed countries mostly rebounded, with the 10Y US Treasury yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [9][12] - Oil prices continued to weaken, with WTI and Brent crude down 1.8% and 2.4% respectively, while gold prices quickly retreated by 3.7% after reaching a historical high [12][13] Overseas Fundamentals & Data - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed a division of opinions among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some supporting a pause in rate cuts [15][19] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 were 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000 [17][18] - The US military conducted a large-scale airstrike in Venezuela, marking an escalation in military pressure on President Maduro's regime [20][19] - President Trump announced a delay in tariff increases on imported furniture and kitchen cabinets from January 1, 2026, to January 1, 2027 [25][26] Domestic Events & Data - The intensity of domestic travel during the New Year holiday increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% in cross-regional daily passenger flow [30][37] - Domestic tourism, particularly "ice and snow tourism" and "winter escape tourism," saw a notable rise, while cross-border travel experienced a decline [43][28] - The average ticket price for economy class flights during the New Year holiday was 597 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [50] - The film market showed steady recovery, with average daily box office revenue increasing by 42.5% compared to the same period in 2025 [53]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has introduced a series of policies aimed at optimizing investment, promoting new production capabilities, and enhancing market access, with a focus on sustainable development and improving living standards. Policy Initiatives - The NDRC has announced eight key policy initiatives, including the optimization of the "Two New" policy, which will be implemented in 2026 to enhance consumer and business benefits [2] - A total of approximately 295 billion yuan has been allocated for early-stage "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments, with significant infrastructure projects approved, including major transportation and water resource projects [2][12] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has been launched with an initial investment of 100 billion yuan, aiming to attract over 1 trillion yuan in total investment, focusing on innovative technology and strategic emerging industries [3] - The NDRC has introduced regulations to standardize pricing behavior on internet platforms, promoting fair competition and innovation in the platform economy [3] Investment and Infrastructure - The NDRC has approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment exceeding 400 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the modern infrastructure system in China [2] - The "Two Heavy" construction projects will support urban underground pipelines, high-standard farmland, and logistics cost reduction, among others [12] Green Transition - The NDRC has initiated the first batch of national zero-carbon park construction, supporting the exploration of new models for green energy supply and deep decarbonization of high-energy-consuming industries [4][21] - The zero-carbon parks are expected to achieve a carbon emission rate of approximately 0.25 tons per ton of standard coal, significantly lower than the national average [21] Market Access and Regulation - The NDRC is actively working to eliminate market access barriers, having identified and rectified over 2,300 local regulations that violate national standards [23][24] - The market access barrier cleanup will transition into a regularized process, encouraging ongoing feedback from the public [24] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is expanding, with significant growth in agricultural drone applications and potential in logistics and urban governance [25][26] - The NDRC plans to promote low-altitude economic applications while ensuring safety and sustainability [26] Education Policy - The NDRC has introduced measures to regulate kindergarten fees, emphasizing the public welfare nature of non-profit kindergartens and enhancing transparency in fee structures [15][16] Employment Initiatives - The NDRC has increased investment in labor-intensive projects to create over 400,000 jobs for low-income populations, with a focus on infrastructure improvements and skills training [19][20]

Group 1 - The "Two New" policy will be optimized in terms of funding allocation, support scope, and implementation mechanisms for 2026 [2] - The policy aims to address issues such as inconsistent subsidies and fraudulent claims observed in 2025, with a focus on improving the execution of the policy [2] - The funding distribution will consider previous policy execution and audit findings, with increased oversight for regions with significant payment delays [2] Group 2 - The 2026 policy will expand support for equipment upgrades, particularly in the areas of public welfare, safety, and consumer infrastructure [3] - The project application process will be simplified, with most sectors having no investment threshold, while maintaining low thresholds in select areas to ensure project quality [3] - Enhanced supervision will be implemented to address enterprise concerns and improve the efficiency of fund utilization [3] Group 3 - A preliminary list of "Two Heavy" construction projects for 2026 has been issued, totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, focusing on urban infrastructure and public welfare [4] - The projects include 281 initiatives aimed at reducing logistics costs and enhancing urban underground networks, with a significant portion allocated to public sector investments [4] - The government aims to improve investment efficiency through various "soft construction" measures, including financing models and incentive mechanisms [4] Group 4 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved multiple major infrastructure projects, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the modern infrastructure system [5] - These projects include transportation, water resources, energy facilities, and significant research platforms, contributing to a stable economic start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] Group 5 - The NDRC has initiated a campaign to eliminate local market access barriers, successfully identifying and rectifying over 2,300 regulations that violate higher legal standards [6][7] - The campaign has addressed various sectors, including second-hand vehicle trading and construction, ensuring fair market access for all enterprises [6][7] - Future efforts will focus on establishing supportive regulations for a unified national market and addressing obstacles that hinder market integration [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the optimization of the "Two New" policy for 2026, focusing on improving fund allocation, support scope, and implementation mechanisms to stabilize investment and promote a unified national market [2][3][4]. Group 2 - The "Two New" policy will enhance fund distribution methods, considering previous policy execution and audit findings to determine local fund allocation scales [2]. - The policy aims to address issues in the consumer goods trade-in program, such as inconsistent subsidies and fraudulent claims, by implementing stricter regulations and improving the subsidy distribution process [2]. - In equipment upgrades, the policy will lower investment thresholds and expand support to more sectors, including elderly care and safety equipment, while enhancing project application and review processes [3]. Group 3 - The 2026 preliminary list of "Two Heavy" construction projects has been organized, with a total investment of approximately 295 billion yuan, focusing on urban infrastructure and public welfare projects [4][6]. - The central budget will allocate over 75 billion yuan for public projects, including urban renewal and ecological protection, to stimulate effective investment [4]. Group 4 - The National Development and Reform Commission has approved several major infrastructure projects, including transportation and water resource projects, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan [5][6]. - These projects aim to enhance China's modern infrastructure system and support the stable start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. Group 5 - The initiative to build a unified national market involves the removal of local market access barriers, with over 2,300 local regulations identified and rectified [7][8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote the construction of a unified market by establishing beneficial regulations and addressing obstacles to market access [9].