Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2440 - 2500. It has returned to a volatile pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. The market is waiting for further developments [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade consultations are still uncertain, causing the market to decline due to news [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the 2440 - 2500 range. The fundamental situation is neutral, the basis is positive, inventory is positive, the disk is negative, the main position is negative, and the future is expected to be volatile [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains good expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result between China and Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [13]. - From September 9th to 17th, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From September 5th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first increased and then decreased [17]. - The import volume of rapeseed in September remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory remained low, rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].

Core Viewpoint - Canada is reviewing tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum, following a year of significant trade tensions between Canada and China, particularly regarding canola products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Review and Government Actions - The Canadian government has initiated a review of the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum to assess the current tax rates' validity [1]. - The review is expected to officially start next month, with updates to be provided at appropriate times [1]. - Since the implementation of these tariffs, the import volume of the affected products has significantly decreased [1]. Group 2: Trade Delegation to China - A parliamentary secretary will accompany a trade delegation to China, indicating a potential shift in the Canadian government's approach to trade relations with China [2][8]. - The delegation, led by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, aims to negotiate the canola import guarantee issue and foster dialogue for a closer trade relationship [3][6]. - This visit marks the first time in six years that a Canadian provincial leader has led a delegation to China [6]. Group 3: Broader Trade Implications - The Saskatchewan government is seeking to address not only canola but also tariffs on other Canadian products such as peas, pork, and seafood during the visit [6]. - The Canadian government is also taking measures to protect jobs in the canola industry and plans to announce additional support for Canadian producers [8][10]. - There is an acknowledgment from Canadian officials that there is still room for growth in trade with China, particularly in the agricultural sector [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The weak reality is reflected in high inventory and slow sales in the spot market, while the strong expectation lies in fewer purchases in the fourth quarter and export drivers. However, the expectation is fluctuating, leading to an unstable upward trend in prices. The short - term long - term view remains bullish, and for Y2601, it is advisable to go long around 8300 - 8310, with a pressure level at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [4]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Increased imports from Russia, Dubai, and Australia can partially offset the supply. The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 1990 tons year - on - year. The price is under pressure in the short - term, with a support level at 9580 - 9698 and a pressure level at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - From August 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.21% month - on - month, and the export increased by 10.22% month - on - month. The decline in US soybean oil prices exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. The price adjustment space is limited, with a support level at 9074 - 9100 and a pressure level at 9736 - 9998 [5]. - For soybean meal and soybean No. 2, the weak supply reality restricts the price increase. The expected increase in South American soybean imports weakens the strong supply expectation in the fourth quarter. Due to the fluctuating Sino - US trade relations, the prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are volatile. It is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease. The low price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal squeezes the consumption of rapeseed meal. The price is expected to adjust downward, with a support level at 2400 - 2438 and a pressure level at 2632 - 2698 [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the external market is under pressure from the phased listing of South American corn and the expected high yield of US corn. The domestic market is also under pressure from continuous imports. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For corn 11 contract, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250. For options, consider selling a wide - straddle combination or out - of - the - money call options [6]. - For soybean No. 1, the low - level supply of old soybeans and the continuous supply of reserve soybeans ensure the market supply. With the upcoming new soybeans, the supply is expected to increase. The demand is mainly rigid. It is not recommended to chase long, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. The pressure level for the 11 - contract is at 4145 - 4150, and the support is at 3850 - 3900 [7]. - The planting area of new peanuts has increased by 4.01% year - on - year, with an expected increase in production. The price is under pressure, but the downward space is narrowing. It is advisable to reduce short positions [8]. - For live pigs, the spot price rebounded this week. The slaughter volume is increasing, and the phased supply pressure is rising. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium to the spot price. For the 11 - contract, the reference range is 13500 - 14500 points. Mid - term, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider going long on the 2601 contract [9]. - For eggs, the futures price rebounded and then fell. The spot price has stabilized and rebounded in some areas. The futures - spot price difference is converging. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 2511 contract at a low price [10]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Analysis - Various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors are in a state of volatile adjustment. For example, soybean No. 1 11 - contract, soybean No. 2 11 - contract, peanut 11 - contract, etc. are all expected to fluctuate. For energy and by - product sectors such as corn 11 - contract and starch 11 - contract, they are in a low - level volatile state, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the breeding sector, the live pig 11 - contract is expected to rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - In the cross - period arbitrage, for most products, it is advisable to wait and see, such as soybean No. 1 9 - 1, soybean No. 2 9 - 1, etc. However, for the soybean meal 3 - 5 contract, it is recommended to conduct a long - spread arbitrage, with a target range of 300 - 400. In the cross - variety arbitrage, for some products, different strategies are recommended, such as short - term bearish operation for 09 soybean oil - palm oil, and long - term bullish operation for 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil [14][15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products in the feed, breeding, and oil sectors, including soybean No. 1, soybean No. 2, peanut, etc. [16] Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oils from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and landed duty - paid prices [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills, and the inventory of rapeseeds in coastal oil mills [20][21]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [21]. - **Weekly Data**: The data on corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [22]. 3. Breeding - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production, consumption, and inventory data [23][25][27] Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts on the breeding end (live pigs and eggs), oilseeds and oils, and feed end, including futures and spot prices, production, consumption, inventory, and other data trends [29][39][55] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options are presented [73][74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse receipt data of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Palm oil: Bullish [1] - Soybean oil: Bullish [1] - Rapeseed oil: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Most enterprises are bullish on the fourth - quarter to first - quarter (next year) oil market, mainly due to supply - side factors. However, some enterprises are cautious about the bullish view, considering factors such as high domestic inventory, low consumption, and potential imports [4][16]. - The key factors to watch include downstream consumption recovery, the crushing situation after Australian rapeseed arrives, and the purchase of US soybeans [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Background and Purpose - The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian bilateral trade situations are uncertain. As of now, there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans, and the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has blocked its arrival from September to December. The supply of soy and rapeseed in the fourth quarter is not optimistic. The research aims to understand the current market situation, procurement, and import conditions [11]. 3.2. Research Summary Rapeseed oil - National rapeseed oil inventory is sufficient, with high pressure in inland areas like Sichuan and Chongqing. Most oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and some pressing lines are shut down. The de - stocking speed is slow, and the degree of de - stocking in the fourth quarter depends on consumption [14]. - Domestic rapeseed oil consumption is extremely poor, mainly for rigid demand. After the start of school and approaching festivals, consumption may improve [14]. Soybean oil - Spot - end soybean oil inventory is sufficient, and there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in September and October. Some oil mills may shut down due to full - capacity of soybean meal. If no US soybeans are purchased this year, there may be a shortage from January to March next year. After the start of school, demand may improve [15]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Most enterprises are bullish on the oil market from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, as soybean and rapeseed oil will de - stock in the fourth quarter, and the shortage in the first quarter of next year is difficult to make up. However, some enterprises are cautious, considering factors such as imports of rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed [16]. 3.4. Research Content August 19th Morning - Enterprise A - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in soybean and rapeseed oil trade. It purchases raw materials from nearby companies and oil mills [17]. - The sales area of Guangxi's rapeseed oil is mainly Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. The enterprise is bullish on the 2025 soybean oil market, believes in focusing on macro news, and thinks rapeseed oil may be a strong variety in the fourth quarter [18][19]. August 19th Morning - Enterprise B - It is a trading enterprise mainly engaged in rapeseed meal and soybean meal trade, with a total annual trading volume of 120 - 130 tons [20]. - It mainly purchases rapeseed meal from domestic oil mills. The substitution between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is affected by price difference. Rapeseed meal demand is seasonal. The soybean meal market has sufficient supply. Key factors to watch include anti - dumping policies and Sino - US negotiations [21][23]. August 19th Afternoon - Enterprise C - It is mainly engaged in the trade of soybean, rapeseed, and cottonseed oil, with a trading volume of about 300,000 tons. It serves customers in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing [24]. - In the soybean oil market, supply was tight from February to April this year, and consumption was weak from June to August. In the rapeseed oil market, port inventory is low, and consumption is mostly replaced. If Sino - US negotiations fail, there may be a shortage of soybeans from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed pressing volume may decline [25][27]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise D - It has a daily rapeseed pressing capacity of 2000 tons and a daily refining capacity of 600 tons. It is currently short of rapeseed and may switch to soybean pressing. The de - stocking progress of rapeseed and soybean oil in the fourth quarter depends on domestic consumption [29][32]. August 20th Morning - Enterprise E - It has three pressing lines. It is currently pressing soybeans with a capacity utilization rate of 50 - 60%, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It is concerned about the import of Australian rapeseed. It does not think there will be a supply problem in the fourth quarter, but there may be a gap in March [34][36]. August 20th Afternoon - Enterprise F - Its daily pressing capacity is 11,000 tons. The soybean pressing line is fully operational, and the rapeseed line is shut down. It has three ships of new - season Australian rapeseed with uncertain plans. Rapeseed oil is mostly for rigid demand, and soybean oil is under less pressure. After the start of school, consumption will improve, but there is obvious consumption downgrading [37][39]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise G - Its daily soybean pressing capacity is 5000 tons, and it also has other production capacities. It mainly purchases Brazilian and Argentine soybeans. It expects a soybean supply gap in February - March next year and high soybean meal inventory after September [41][44]. August 21st Morning - Enterprise H - It is mainly engaged in oil packaging, with a planned annual capacity of 200,000 tons. The consumption in different regions has different preferences. This year's sales volume has decreased, and the downstream procurement is more cautious. Palm oil demand has decreased, and the overall oil demand is stable but lacks growth [46][49]. August 22nd Morning - Enterprise I - It has various production capacities, including peanut, wheat, and planned soybean pressing. It mainly purchases oil raw materials from domestic oil mills. It is bullish on the short - term oil market and expects soybean meal to be weak for a long time [50][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 position. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Under the uncertain Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy, the price once rose significantly, but the high inventory and alternative imports have weakened market concerns. It shows a wide - range shock, with support at 9500 - 9580 and pressure at 10333 - 10343 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, and the Indonesian inventory is low. The August production data is poor, and the export demand in early August is good. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 9050 - 9074 and pressure at 9900 - 9990 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.2**: The market is digesting the positive impact of the August USDA report. The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal, with support at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton and pressure at 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton. The 09 contract of soybean No.2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with support at 3640 - 3670 and pressure at 3950 - 4000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 contract shows a wide - range shock, with support at 2600 - 2617 and pressure at 2800 - 2823. The 01 contract is affected by the expected reduction of Canadian rapeseed imports [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report has a negative impact on the external market. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and relevant policies. It is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price continues to fall due to the increasing supply of new soybeans. It is recommended to exit short positions in the main contract and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The new - season planting area has increased. The 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies [6][7]. - **Pig**: The spot price has adjusted in August, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions of the 09 contract to the 2511 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2605 contract [7]. - **Egg**: The 09 contract price has continued to decline, and the spot price has stabilized in some areas. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 - contract at low prices [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, including supply - demand relationships, price support and pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, the 01 contract of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the 09 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties' inter - period and inter - variety arbitrage, different reference strategies are provided, such as observing the 9 - 1 spread of soybean No.1, conducting positive spread operations for the 11 - 1 spread of soybean meal, and observing the 09 bean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors are presented, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods are provided, including CBOT prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: The inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, are presented, reflecting the supply - demand situation of the industry [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production and sales data, and inventory data, which can help understand the market situation of the breeding industry [18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - A large number of charts are provided to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, production data, and spread changes, which can help investors comprehensively understand the market situation [24][34][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatilities of various varieties and the trading and holding volume data of corn options are presented, which can help investors understand the option market situation [71]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse - Receipt Situations of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are presented, which can help investors understand the market supply situation [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Group 1 - Canadian canola oil prices for September and November shipping are stable at $1,035 and $1,015 per ton respectively, compared to the previous trading day [1] - Domestic canola oil prices in China vary by region, with prices ranging from 9,610 to 9,680 CNY per ton for grade three canola oil as of August 6 [2] - The futures market shows a slight decline in canola oil futures, closing at 9,562 CNY per ton with a trading volume of 199,178 contracts [2] Group 2 - The European Union's canola seed import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 260,000 tons, a significant decrease from 430,000 tons in the same period last year [4] - Analysis indicates a reduction in domestic canola procurement and port arrivals since July, leading to a decline in domestic canola oil inventory from its peak, although it remains at a relatively high level compared to previous years [5] - The new season's EU canola production is expected to increase, resulting in reduced import demand and weaker export demand from producing regions [5]

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]