Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower, dropping 656 points to 25634, and at one point fell by 954 points to a low of 25336, ultimately closing down 400 points or 1.52% at 25889, with a total turnover of 4903.66 million [3] - Among 88 blue-chip stocks, 63 declined while only 19 rose, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3] - The technology index experienced a near 5% drop, but some buying interest was noted in the afternoon, leading to a narrowing of losses for several tech stocks [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Trade Data - In September, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.3%, surpassing expectations of 6.6%, while imports rose by 7.4%, significantly above the anticipated 1.8% [6] - For the first three quarters of the year, China's total trade value in USD reached 4.68 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports declining by 1.1% [7] - China's trade surplus for the first three quarters was 8750.8 billion, indicating a robust trade performance despite global economic challenges [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Unicom has officially opened eSIM reservation channels, with over 60,000 online appointments reported [11] - China Mobile also launched eSIM business reservations, with over 150,000 registrations within four hours of opening [12] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing has established a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand its commodity business, focusing on pricing management services for the metals market [13]

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Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese stance on the trade war is clear: they are willing to engage in negotiations but will also respond firmly to U.S. actions [2]. - There is a recognition of mutual interests and cooperation potential between the U.S. and China, with past negotiations demonstrating the ability to resolve issues through respectful dialogue [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its approach, emphasizing the need for sincerity in negotiations and adherence to previous agreements made by the leaders of both countries [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are framed as legitimate actions to enhance its regulatory framework, not as outright bans, with a commitment to approving compliant applications [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral channels prior to their implementation, indicating a desire for transparency [1]. - The U.S. is criticized for its broad interpretation of national security and for imposing a series of restrictions that harm Chinese interests and disrupt the atmosphere for trade talks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations - China has consistently stated its position on the trade war, indicating readiness to engage in both conflict and dialogue, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation between China and the U.S. [2]. - The Chinese side has maintained communication within the framework of the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiation mechanism, asserting that solutions can be found through mutual respect and equal consultation [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are described as legitimate actions based on laws and regulations, aimed at improving its export control system rather than outright bans [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms prior to their implementation [1]. Group 3: U.S. Actions - The U.S. has been accused of abusing export controls and implementing a series of restrictive measures against China, which have harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for economic talks [1]. - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the hard-won results of previous discussions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's stance on recent export control measures regarding rare earth materials and the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining national security and international stability while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has implemented export control measures on rare earth materials as a legitimate action to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications amid global instability [4]. - The Chinese government assures that these export controls do not equate to a ban on exports, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [4][5]. - Prior to the announcement, China communicated these measures through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms to relevant countries [4][5]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's export controls, which China views as a double standard and an abuse of national security concerns [5][7]. - The U.S. has a significantly larger export control list, with over 3,000 items compared to China's 900, indicating a disparity in the application of export controls [7]. - China expresses strong opposition to the U.S. actions, stating that such measures severely damage legitimate business interests and disrupt international trade order [7][8]. Group 3: Call for Dialogue - China maintains an open stance for dialogue, stating that both countries have extensive common interests and cooperation potential, and urges the U.S. to correct its approach and engage in sincere negotiations [2][6]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and equal consultation in resolving trade issues, advocating for a stable and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [2][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino-US trade frictions, Fed interest rate policies, and supply-demand relationships in various industries. Different sectors show different trends, with some facing pressure and others having potential opportunities [2][3][4] - Sino-US trade relations are a significant factor influencing the market, and their development will have an impact on multiple industries, including metals, agriculture, and shipping [3][4][12] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - On Monday, A-shares opened lower due to weekend news but recovered during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19%, and the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. The basis spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly [2][3] - The market is affected by Sino-US trade frictions. The short-term risk appetite may be suppressed, but the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to observe first and then look for opportunities [4] Bond Futures - Bond futures opened high and closed lower, with all contracts closing up. The spot bond yields rebounded. The market is affected by factors such as the easing of Sino-US relations and changes in risk appetite. It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [5][7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Due to the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions and the US government shutdown, the market's concerns have not been truly alleviated. The dollar index has strengthened, and precious metals have reached new highs under short squeeze trading. It is expected that precious metals will continue to be bullish in the future, but short-term fluctuations may occur [9] - It is recommended to buy precious metals at a low price above 910 yuan and set stop-profit and stop-loss points. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long position above $50 [10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot prices of container shipping on the European line are showing a downward trend, and the futures market is also under pressure. The macro factors are highly uncertain, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [11][12] Commodity Futures - Non-Ferrous Metals Copper - The price of copper is running strongly due to the easing of tariff concerns. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at a high price and pay attention to the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [12][17] Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the supply will continue to be in excess in October, and the price will be under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost-profit change and overseas production growth [17][20] Aluminum - The price of aluminum is oscillating at a high level. The macro environment is favorable, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm and downstream acceptance of high prices [21][23] Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy is following the trend of aluminum. The supply is affected by factors such as raw material supply and tax policies, and the demand is recovering moderately. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream raw material supply and demand recovery rhythm [23][26] Zinc - The price of zinc is oscillating. The supply is abundant, and the demand is not outstanding. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply and demand changes and inventory performance [27][31] Tin - The price of tin is oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe [31][34] Nickel - The price of nickel is affected by macro factors and news from the ore end. The supply is increasing, and the demand is diverse. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [34][37] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is oscillating downward. The macro environment is weak, and the supply is increasing while the demand is not strong. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro expectations and steel mill dynamics [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro risks [42][44] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - The price of steel is weakly consolidating. The Sino-US trade friction has a negative impact on the market, but the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 yuan for rebar and 3,200 yuan for hot-rolled coil [45][46] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore is oscillating strongly. The supply is affected by factors such as shipping volume and negotiation results, and the demand is at a high level but slightly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 contract at a low price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot-rolled coil [47][50] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal is experiencing a phased correction. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and import volume, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at a high price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [51][53] Coke - The price of coke is oscillating downward. The first round of price increase has been implemented, but the space for further increase is limited, and there is a possibility of price reduction in the future. It is recommended to short the coke 2601 contract at a high price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [54][58] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - The price of meal is under pressure due to the uncertain Sino-US trade relations and supply pressure. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 is sufficient, but there is a gap expected in the first quarter of 2026. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract and the 1-5 positive spread opportunity [59][61] Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is at a low level. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short live pigs on the futures market and consider the LH1-5 and LH3-7 reverse spread strategies [62][63]

Core Viewpoint - China's stance on the tariff and trade war is consistent: ready to fight back if necessary, but open to dialogue [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - The Chinese government has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threat to impose a 100% tariff and other restrictive measures, emphasizing that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on laws and regulations [2] - China maintains that its export controls are not prohibitive and will continue to approve applications that meet regulations, aiming to ensure the stability of global supply chains [2] - The U.S. has been accused of abusing export controls and implementing discriminatory practices against China, which has severely harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for bilateral economic talks [2] Group 2: Dialogue and Cooperation - China asserts that both countries have extensive common interests and cooperation potential, indicating that mutual benefits can be achieved through collaboration [3] - The past four rounds of economic negotiations have demonstrated that solutions can be found based on mutual respect and equal consultation [3] - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and show sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the hard-won results of previous discussions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of former President Trump regarding the trade war with China, indicating a potential retreat from aggressive tariff policies due to domestic economic pressures and the realization of the negative impacts of such policies on the U.S. economy [1][4][10]. Economic Impact - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that by 2025, American households will face an increased annual expenditure of $2,100 to $3,800 due to tariffs, with low-income families being disproportionately affected [6]. - The short-term price increase of goods due to tariffs is approximately 1.7% to 1.8%, resulting in an average loss of about $2,400 per household this year [6]. - The volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly affecting tech and manufacturing sectors, reflects growing concerns over tariff policies leading to capital flight [6]. Supply Chain Challenges - Stricter origin verification mechanisms complicate global supply chains, forcing companies to adjust logistics and factory layouts, which increases overall logistics costs and compliance burdens [8]. - The article highlights that Trump's tariff policies are contributing to the fragmentation of the global economy and creating a "supply chain isolation" for the U.S., which could dilute its overall competitiveness in the long run [8]. Political and Legal Ramifications - Domestic legal challenges are emerging against Trump's tariff policies, with some companies and industry associations filing lawsuits, questioning the president's authority to impose tariffs under national security claims [16]. - If courts uphold these challenges, it could fundamentally undermine the existing tariff framework, leading to increased uncertainty in the trade environment and diminishing investment confidence [18]. International Relations - The article notes that Trump's unilateral and bullying tactics have damaged U.S.-China relations, with China responding firmly to U.S. tariffs, particularly affecting American agricultural and energy sectors [14][12]. - The article emphasizes that many countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S. market and are moving towards regional integration, while China is actively pursuing multilateral trade cooperation [18][20]. Strategic Misalignment - Trump's recent shift in tone is viewed as a tactical adjustment ahead of midterm elections rather than a genuine strategic change, as he faces increasing domestic opposition to the trade war [20]. - The article concludes that for genuine improvement in U.S.-China economic relations, the U.S. must abandon its unilateral sanctions and tariff threats, and instead engage in respectful and mutually beneficial negotiations [22].

Core Insights - The Meilun Property Price Index has risen for five consecutive weeks, currently at 130.96 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.28% and a year-to-date increase of 2.21%, reaching a new high since August of the previous year [1] - The recent increase in the property price index is influenced by the resumption of interest rate cuts in mid-September and the effects of Hong Kong's Policy Address [1] - The impact of the new round of tariff wars, which began last Friday, on the property market remains to be observed, but analysts believe the effects will be temporary due to both China and the U.S. leaving room for easing tensions [1] Property Market Analysis - The Meilun Confidence Index, which reflects the selling attitude of property owners, has risen to 76.7 points, increasing by 1.5% week-on-week and remaining above 75 points for ten consecutive weeks, indicating a stable market [1] - The Confidence Index has been above the average value for 45 weeks, suggesting that property prices are likely to continue rising, with an expected increase of approximately 2% this quarter [1]