投资者押注，中国股市凭借在人工智能领域的实力以及在中美关系中的韧性，还有进一步上涨空间。 包括法国东方汇理、法国巴黎资产管理、富达国际和曼集团在内的全球基金管理公司都预计，2026年中 国股市仍将走高。摩根大通近期将中国股市评级上调至"增持"，Allspring Global Investments的投资组合 经理Gary Tan则表示，这一资产类别正变得对海外投资者而言"不可或缺"。 市场机构对于中国的看法，已经从此前的怀疑，转向认可其可以通过技术进步提供独特投资价值。 MSCI中国指数今年已上涨约30%，跑赢标普500指数的幅度创下2017年以来之最，市值增加了约2.4万 亿美元。由于本轮资金流入主要由被动型基金驱动，市场也期待未来若主动资金重返中国，有望推动下 一阶段反弹。 富达国际新加坡的投资组合经理George Efstathopoulos表示："可以说，中国展现出更强韧性，投资者正 越来越多地接受一个'可投资的中国'，这里既能提供多元配置，也能提供创新机会。现在如果中国股市 回调，我会更倾向于逢低买入。" 根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至今年11月，境外长线资金通过沪深港股通等渠道，净买入了约100亿美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global fund managers are optimistic about the Chinese stock market, expecting it to continue rising through 2026, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and resilience in US-China relations [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Major global fund management companies, including Societe Generale, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Fidelity International, and Man Group, have raised their outlook for the Chinese stock market [2]. - JPMorgan has upgraded its rating for the Chinese stock market to "overweight," indicating a shift in perception from skepticism to recognition of unique investment value through technological advancements [2]. - The MSCI China Index has risen approximately 30% this year, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, with a market capitalization increase of about $2.4 trillion [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - As of November, foreign long-term funds have net purchased around $10 billion in mainland and Hong Kong stocks, contrasting sharply with an expected outflow of about $17 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - The current net inflow is primarily driven by passive funds, while active fund managers have withdrawn approximately $15 billion [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market is supported by the emergence of new technology giants in sectors like chips, biomedicine, and robotics, alongside expectations of a re-inflation phase for the economy [3]. - Stocks related to consumer sectors, which have lagged this year, are viewed as potential "catch-up" opportunities by investors [3]. - The MSCI China Index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 12 times, compared to 15 times for the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index and 22 times for the S&P 500 Index, indicating relative affordability [3]. Group 4: Domestic Investment Dynamics - Domestic public funds continue to buy into the market, supported by regulatory policies encouraging insurance funds to increase equity investments [4]. - The significant savings held by Chinese residents, approximately $23 trillion, are expected to contribute to market growth, especially as real estate remains under pressure and fixed-income returns are low [4]. - The key question remains whether domestic investors will regain confidence in their market, which could further propel the Chinese stock market [4].

【导读】 全球基金经理预计中国股市将在2026年继续上涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一则外资机构集体看好中国股市的消息。 投资者押注，中国股市凭借在人工智能领域的实力以及在中美关系中的韧性，还有进一步上 涨空间。 包括法国东方汇理、法国巴黎资产管理、富达国际和曼集团在内的全球基金管理公司都预 计， 2026年中国股市仍将走高。 摩根大通近期将中国股市评级上调至"增持"，Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan则表示， 这一资产类别正变得对海外投资者而 言"不可或缺"。 市场机构对于中国的看法，已经从此前的怀疑，转向认可其可以通过技术进步提供独特投资 价值。 MSCI中国指数今年已上涨约30%，跑赢标普500指数的幅度创下2017年以来之最， 市值增加了约2.4万亿美元。由于本轮资金流入主要由被动型基金驱动，市场也期待未来若主 动资金重返中国，有望推动下一阶段反弹。 根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至今年11月，境外长线资金通过沪深港股通等渠道，净买入了约 100亿美元的中国内地及香港股票，这与2024年约170亿美元的资金流出形成鲜明反差。本 轮净流入完全来自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is regaining global investor interest due to its strength in artificial intelligence and resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with expectations that this upward trend will continue into 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Major global fund management companies, including Amundi SA, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Fidelity International, and Man Group, anticipate continued growth in the Chinese stock market [1] - JPMorgan Chase & Co. has upgraded the rating of the Chinese market to "overweight," while Allspring Global Investments emphasizes that this asset class is becoming "indispensable" for foreign investors [1] - Investor sentiment has shifted from skepticism to recognition of the unique value that the Chinese market can provide through technological advancements [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Valuation - The MSCI China Index has surged approximately 30% this year, marking the largest outperformance against the S&P 500 since 2017, adding $2.4 trillion in market value [1] - Despite the recent surge, Chinese stocks remain relatively cheap compared to global peers, with the MSCI China Index's expected price-to-earnings ratio at 12 times, compared to 15 times for the MSCI Asia Index and 22 times for the S&P 500 [4] - Foreign long-only funds have purchased about $10 billion in stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong, reversing a previous outflow of $17 billion in 2024 [4] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The next phase of the market rebound is expected to be led by active fund managers as corporate earnings improve and re-inflation trends emerge [3] - Optimism regarding China's stock market is largely driven by expectations for its large technology giants, particularly in sectors like chips, biopharmaceuticals, and robotics [5] - There is potential for a rebound in underperforming sectors, especially consumer stocks, as the economy stabilizes [5] Group 4: Domestic Investment Dynamics - Local public funds are actively buying into the market, and there is increasing demand from insurance companies following regulatory encouragement earlier this year [6] - A significant portion of household savings, approximately $23 trillion, is seen as a potential driver for market growth, with expectations that domestic investor sentiment will return to the market [6]

这种乐观情绪推动了投资者观念的根本性转变，市场已从最初的怀疑态度，转变为认可中国市场能通过科技进步提供独特价值。据彭博数据显 示，MSCI中国指数今年飙升约30%，创下自2017年以来跑赢标普500指数的最大幅度，并为市场增加了2.4万亿美元的市值。 中国股市正凭借其在人工智能领域的实力以及在地缘政治紧张局势下的韧性，重新赢回全球资金的青睐，华尔街普遍押注这一涨势将在2026年延 续。 包括Amundi SA、BNP Paribas Asset Management、Fidelity International和Man Group在内的全球主要基金管理公司均预计中国股市将继续上涨。 JPMorgan Chase & Co.近期将中国市场评级上调至"超配"，而Allspring Global Investments更指出，这一资产类别对于外国投资者而言正变得"不可 或缺"。 看好中国股市的核心逻辑在于对其庞大的科技巨头群体的乐观预期，特别是在芯片、生物制药和机器人领域。围绕人工智能的热潮已推动阿里巴 巴和寒武纪等公司股价大幅上涨。 与此同时，今年表现落后于大盘的板块，尤其是消费板块，也被认为存在反弹空间。Man ...

绝对价格上涨抑制下游采购需求 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22020元/吨，较上一交易日变化220元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21890元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-190元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21900元/吨，较上一交易日变化210元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-04日沪铝主力合约开于21935元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较上一交易日变化165元/吨，最 高价达22220元/吨，最低价达到21925元/吨。全天交易日成交246366手，全天交易日持仓244457手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-04，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存530900吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-04SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2810元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 284 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current dynamics of silver prices, highlighting the dual drivers of investment demand and industrial consumption, while questioning the sustainability of the current price levels and the fundamental changes in the silver market [4][6][8]. Group 1: Drivers of Silver Price Increase - Silver's price increase is driven by the instability of the credit currency system and the global economic shift towards re-inflation, with investment and allocation demand being the primary support for its strong performance [4][6]. - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector has surged from below 5% to 20% over the past five years, providing a solid foundation for silver demand, although overall industrial demand remains insufficient to support current price levels [6]. Group 2: Gold-Silver Ratio and Market Sentiment - The decline in the gold-silver ratio is a classic feature of a silver bull market, with significant fluctuations reflecting market risk appetite. A high ratio indicates strong risk aversion, while a declining ratio suggests a more favorable market outlook for silver [7]. - The current market conditions indicate that the ongoing repair of the gold-silver ratio is a normal phenomenon in the silver bull market, with a sustained increase in the ratio potentially signaling the end of the bull market [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Silver Market - The silver bull market is currently in an accelerated phase, with multiple factors supporting continued price strength, including inflation expectations and the dynamics of the gold-silver ratio. The overall bullish trend is expected to persist until at least the second half of 2026 [8].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 黄金在2025年表现亮眼，全年创下超过50次历史新高，累计涨幅超过60%。这一走势受多重因素支撑， 包括不断升温的地缘政治和经济不确定性、走弱的美元以及价格动能增强。无论是投资者还是各国央行 都在提高黄金配置，希望借此实现分散化和稳定性。 展望2026年，世界黄金协会认为，前景仍由持续的地缘经济不确定性所主导。当前金价大体反映了市场 对宏观经济的共识预期，如果这些条件保持不变，黄金可能继续维持区间波动。 但是，该机构也认为，结合今年的经验来看，2026年很可能再度出现意外。如果经济增速放缓、利率进 一步下行，黄金可能获得温和升幅；若全球风险显著上升、经济陷入更深衰退，黄金则可能迎来强劲表 现。相反，如果特朗普政府的政策取得成功，经济加速增长、地缘风险下降、美联储被迫延后或逆转降 息路径，美元走强，黄金将承压下行。 此外，世界黄金协会认为，央行购金需求与黄金回收趋势也可能进一步影响市场。最关键的是，在波动 性仍高的背景下，黄金作为投资组合分散化工具和稳定器的角色依旧关键。 下图显示，世界黄金协会指出，若市场波动和地缘风险持 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas spot premium remains high and difficult to decline, overseas inventory is at a low level, export profit increases, domestic spot premium shows a positive trend, domestic warehouse receipt inventory declines slightly, and the fundamentals are all favorable. The domestic social inventory continues to decline. In November, the smelting output decreased month - on - month and was significantly lower than expected. The continuous upward repair of spot premium reflects both consumption intensity and supply tightness. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline. High - altitude mines in China have entered the winter shutdown and maintenance period. The rapid decline of TC price and the decline of absolute price have caused the smelting comprehensive cost to face losses, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decline in the later stage. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December increases, and the future consumption is optimistic [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $250.98 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,700 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,690 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,745 yuan per ton and closed at 22,755 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 106,416 lots, and the open interest was 104,585 lots. The highest price was 22,800 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,695 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 封帆 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50 元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨 至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变 化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/ 吨，最高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248 手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库 存66833吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格 录 ...