Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future revenue projections indicate growth, with expected revenues of 403.81 billion, 418.39 billion, and 431.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 386.35 billion, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 47.39 billion, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 45.09 billion, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 increased by 67% to 69.28 billion [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue for 2024 was 364.86 billion, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% and other premium brands seeing significant growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 21.49 billion in 2024, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA rising by 7.9% to 8.47 billion [8] - The "Summary" brand's growth strategy includes brand promotion and inventory management [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a focus on high-end development while streamlining operations and managing costs effectively, leading to favorable profit performance [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.72, 1.95, and 2.20 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future earnings are projected to improve as the company maintains its focus on high-end products while optimizing operations and costs [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with notable increases in Heineken and other premium brands [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with an EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported a significant decline in revenue, sales, and profitability for 2024, indicating challenges in the high-end beer market, particularly in China [1][3][10]. Financial Performance - For 2024, Budweiser APAC achieved revenue of $6.246 billion, down 7% year-on-year, with sales volume of 848.1 million liters, a decrease of 8.8% [1][9]. - Normalized EBITDA was $1.807 billion, reflecting a 6.3% decline compared to the previous year [1][9]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was $726 million, down from $852 million [9]. Market Challenges - The Chinese market showed a significant downturn, with Budweiser's sales volume dropping by 11.8% in 2024, and a notable 18.9% decline in Q4 [10][14]. - The overall beer market in China saw a slight decrease in production, with Budweiser's performance lagging behind competitors like Chongqing Beer and Yanjing Beer [11][10]. Leadership Changes - CEO Jan Craps announced his departure after seven years, with Cheng Yanjun set to take over as CEO and co-chairman [3][17]. - Cheng has extensive experience within the company and aims to leverage his background to drive growth [17][18]. Strategic Focus - The new CEO is tasked with revitalizing growth, particularly by enhancing Budweiser's brand portfolio and marketing strategies in China [17][19]. - Budweiser plans to accelerate the development of non-drinking channels, which have shown potential for growth despite the overall market decline [19][20]. Competitive Landscape - Budweiser's premium positioning is under pressure as local competitors enhance their high-end offerings, narrowing the price gap [15][19]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining its market share amid changing consumer preferences and economic conditions [10][11].