金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 11 日 量化择时周报：重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 重大事件落地前维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250505)认为：在风险偏好承压叠加市场格局触发下行趋势， 全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估值不高，建议在压力位突 破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 周二突破 30 日均线，随后迎来上涨。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 3.58%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 2%，上证 50 上涨 1.93%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括国防军工、通信，国防军工上涨 6.44%，消费者服务、房 地产表现较弱，消费者服务微涨 0.3%。上周成交活跃度上，军工和通信资 金流入明显。 从择时体系来看，我们定义的用来区别市场整体环境的 wind 全 A 长期均 线（120 日）和短期均线（20 日）的距离开始收窄，最新数据显示 20 日 线收于 4946，120 日线收于 5088 点，短期均线继续位于长线均线之下， 两线差值由上周的-3.63%缩小至-2.80%，距离绝对值开 ...

东兴证券表示，市场有望重回活跃态势，结构性行情特征明显。市场在经历节前缩量盘升行情后，在目 前节点推出重大政策，激发市场成交热情，有利于五月市场行情重回活跃状态。 中泰证券表示，从行业配置角度看，有三条主线值得关注：（1）TMT景气度有望贯穿全年。（2）稳 增长政策下，关注低位周期股"困境反转"。从估值-盈利角度看，石油石化、有色金属市净率存在一定 修复空间。3、中期经济压力持续，关注稳健类板块。公用事业、交通运输板块盈利能力稳定，且估值 偏低，具备较强的安全边际。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 5月9日，三大指数集体低开，中船系、减肥药、银行等板块和概念股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中证A500 指数跌0.26%，成分股中，中航成飞涨超5%，中鼎股份、百济神州-U、信立泰、安克创新等跟涨。 相关ETF中，截至发稿，A500指数ETF（159351）跌0.42%，成交额超6700万元。 资金流向上，Wind金融终端数据显示，A500指数ETF（159351）已连续三个交易日获资金净流入，累 计"吸金"超1.8亿元。 A500指数ETF（159351 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares stabilized in Q1 2025, with a notable improvement in non-financial sectors, where the net profit growth rate reached 5.13%, significantly higher than the previous year's growth rate [11][15][19] - Among 30 industries, 17 showed a year-on-year increase in net profit growth, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which saw substantial revenue and profit growth [3][29] - The financial sector exhibited a mixed performance, with state-owned banks under pressure while non-bank financial institutions showed a significant recovery, with a net profit increase of 21.30% [38][40] Group 2 - Price pressures persist across various industries, with 23 out of 30 industries having a sales net profit margin below 10%, indicating ongoing challenges despite some sectors experiencing a "turnaround" [4][41] - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors have shown significant profit improvements, indicating a recovery from previous downturns [4][44] - The consumer electronics sector benefited from government policies, with household appliances seeing a net profit increase of 25.12% in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [4][44] Group 3 - From a PB-ROE perspective, 14 out of 30 industries showed improved ROE compared to the previous year, particularly in the TMT sector, where electronic and media industries saw significant gains [5][45] - The communication sector within the technology industry has substantial valuation recovery potential, while the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors also show signs of potential recovery [5][48] - Public utility sectors maintain stable performance and low valuations, indicating strong long-term investment value [5][49] Group 4 - Future industry allocation should focus on three main lines: the sustained growth of the TMT sector, the recovery of low-position cyclical stocks, and the stability of defensive sectors [6][54] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, particularly for private technology enterprises, while low-position cyclical stocks like oil and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of recovery [6][54] - Defensive sectors such as public utilities and transportation are projected to remain stable amid ongoing economic pressures, providing a strong safety margin for investors [6][55]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" with an expected industry index increase of -5% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The market is currently in a downtrend, with a focus on when the profit effect will turn positive. The current profit effect is around -1% [2][10]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral position until the 30-day moving average of the wind All A index is breached, considering the low valuation levels [4][10]. - The industry configuration model recommends focusing on "dilemma reversal" sectors, particularly in healthcare and consumer sectors related to export chains such as light industry and home appliances [3][10]. - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, emphasizing domestic substitution in the fields of information technology and AI chips [3][10]. - Despite a significant drop on Friday, the banking sector, which is still in an upward trend, remains worthy of attention [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The wind All A index is currently in a downtrend, with the 20-day moving average at 4908 and the 120-day moving average at 5092.8, indicating a distance of -3.63% [2][9]. - The market's current environment is characterized by uncertainty due to upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and the release of April import and export data [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The overall PE ratio of the wind All A index is around the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level [3][10]. Positioning Recommendations - The report advises a 50% allocation in absolute return products based on the wind All A index as the main stock allocation [3][10].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报 ： Beta 、换手率因子表现较好 -20250504》 2025-05-04 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业进 入高估区域？——估值与基金重仓股配 置监控 2025-05-03》 2025-05-03 3 《金融工程：金融工程-净利润断层 本周超额基准 0.92%》 2025-05-03 金融工程 证券研究报告 量化择时周报：突破压力位前保持中性 突破压力位前保持中性 上周周报(20250427)认为：全 A 指数的 30 日均线构成压力位，但考虑到估 值不高，建议在压力位突破前维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 维持原状。 市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 2000 上涨 0.84%，中盘股中证 500 上涨 0.08%，沪深 300 下跌 0.43%，上证 50 下跌 0.59%;上周中信一级行业中， 表现较强行业包括传媒、计算机，传媒上涨 2.86%，综合金融、房地产 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 3.573 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 252 million for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and 44% respectively [1] - The company experienced a revenue increase of 15% in Q4 2024 but a significant drop in net profit by 32% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 859 million, with a net profit increase of 38% year-on-year [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the engraving machine and water cooling heat dissipation business faced pressure, leading to a 7% decline in total revenue for 2024 [2] - Revenue from smart control components, innovative consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and health environment products showed varied performance, with declines of 14%, 2%, and 53% respectively, while automotive electronics grew by 19% [2] - The innovative consumer electronics segment is expected to see a significant decline in engraving machine revenue, while the e-bike segment is projected to grow [2] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items decreased by 4.6 and 3.4 percentage points year-on-year respectively [2] - The company’s expenses in sales, management, R&D, and finance increased year-on-year, with management expenses rising due to the absence of a previous year's stock incentive reversal [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in engraving machine business and stable growth in e-bike and automotive electronics in 2025 [3] - The company’s global production capacity and strong R&D capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive advantage [4] - The company has announced an incentive plan with targets for 2025 revenue growth of 25% to 50%, primarily driven by the e-cigarette and automotive electronics segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "turnaround" investment opportunity presented by Shanghai Jahwa, highlighting its potential for recovery despite recent financial underperformance. The market's optimistic response is reflected in a 4.2% increase in stock price following the earnings report [1]. Financial Performance - Shanghai Jahwa reported revenues of 5.679 billion yuan and 1.704 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, with net profits of -833 million yuan and 217 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline in both metrics [1]. - The primary cause of the 2024 losses was attributed to goodwill impairment of approximately 610 million yuan, with actual operational losses being less severe [2]. Strategic Reforms - The company is actively addressing historical issues, including reducing social inventory and restructuring product and channel strategies. By the end of 2024, inventory decreased by 13.3% compared to the beginning of the year, and inventory turnover days for department store channels dropped from 342 days to 89 days [3]. - The transition from an online agency model to a self-operated model has improved pricing control and operational efficiency, leading to better performance during promotional events [3]. Growth Logic - Shanghai Jahwa is reshaping its growth strategy to align with industry trends, focusing on R&D innovation and brand development to enhance competitiveness. The company aims to leverage its professional expertise to drive growth [4]. - The introduction of upgraded products, such as the new mosquito repellent series and skincare lines, reflects the company's commitment to professional branding and product efficacy [4]. Market Trends - The consumer demand for cosmetics is increasingly rational and function-oriented, making professional capabilities essential for differentiating brands in a competitive market. Shanghai Jahwa's established expertise positions it well to capitalize on this trend [5]. Channel Development - The company has successfully integrated its online capabilities, with over 70% of sales for the Yuze brand coming from online channels. The focus on self-broadcasting has led to significant growth in GMV for brands like Yuze and Six Gods [6]. - Overall, Shanghai Jahwa's strategic depth and reform benefits suggest a positive outlook, indicating that the company is at a performance low point with potential for a turnaround and value reassessment [6].

泉果基金赵诣：关注AI方向及困境反转机会 金十数据4月22日讯，泉果旭源发布2025年度一季报。知名基金经理赵诣表示，随着贸易摩擦的加剧， 对于出口将产生较大的不确定性，因此对于全球化公司是否能有海外属地化运营能力将尤为关键；同时 在出口受到影响的情况下，国内对冲政策的力度也将值得关注。赵诣表示，他会主要关注两个投资方 向，一是处于较快增长的AI相关领域的头部互联网企业、计算机、电子、机械等方向；二是高端制造 中的新能源、军工等可能出现困境反转的方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rock Co., Ltd. (stock code 600696) is facing delisting risk due to financial performance issues, including a revenue of 285 million yuan and a net loss of 217 million yuan in the previous year, leading to a change in stock name to *ST Rock from April 23 [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, Rock Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 285 million yuan, which is less than 300 million yuan, and a net loss of 217 million yuan, triggering delisting risk warnings [1][12] - By 2024, the company's revenue has shrunk to less than 20% of the previous year's figures, with significant declines in various product categories, with sales revenue dropping to 268 million yuan [2][12] Shareholder Dynamics - Despite the company's financial troubles, the number of shareholders increased from 23,834 at the end of 2023 to 45,972 by the end of 2024, nearly doubling [3][14] - As of March 2025, there are still over 44,000 shareholders holding Rock Co., Ltd. shares, indicating some investors are betting on a turnaround or potential acquisition [3][14] Corporate History and Changes - Rock Co., Ltd. has undergone ten name changes over its 30-year history, reflecting various ownership and operational shifts, including a transition to the liquor industry in 2018 [5][6] - The company previously achieved significant growth in liquor sales, with revenue rising from less than 60 million yuan to over 1 billion yuan in just a few years, but this growth has since reversed [6][12] Management and Operational Issues - The company has faced significant management turnover, with key executives leaving and the actual controller being detained by police, leading to operational instability [2][8] - Rock Co., Ltd. has also seen a drastic reduction in its distributor network, with 3,693 distributors leaving, leaving only 772 by the end of the previous year [13] Market Position - As of April 22, 2024, Rock Co., Ltd. has a market capitalization of approximately 2.7 billion yuan [15]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is leading globally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 16.8% and 23.2% respectively as of March 28, 2025, indicating a significant revaluation of core technology assets [1][2] - The cumulative increase of Hong Kong tech leaders has surpassed that of US tech leaders since the beginning of 2024, reflecting strong performance in the sector [1][2] - The internet sector continues to maintain robust absolute growth, while the real estate sector shows signs of recovery from previous downturns, although confirmation is pending until all reports are released [3] Market Performance - The overall market performance indicates that the Hong Kong core indices are outperforming global counterparts, with significant contributions from valuation increases [2] - The market's earnings yield (ERP) is approaching historical high-pressure levels, suggesting increased volatility and market speculation [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has been a major contributor to this year's market gains, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio remains relatively low compared to global earnings levels [2] Fundamental Analysis - Preliminary statistics for the 2024 annual reports show that approximately 84% of Hong Kong stocks have disclosed their results, confirming a stabilization in the fundamentals [2] - The net profit growth for all Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong Stock Connect, and H-shares is reported at 12.0%, 4.9%, and 33.5% respectively, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2] Sector Focus - Future attention is directed towards two key marginal sectors: the Hang Seng Internet sector, which requires monitoring for base effect issues, and the cyclical/real estate chain, which is expected to show signs of recovery as downward pressures ease [3] - The internet sector continues to exhibit strong growth, while the real estate sector is beginning to show signs of a turnaround from previous challenges [3] Capital Flow and Pricing Issues - The overall capital flow in the Hong Kong market is at its highest level in the past decade, as indicated by absolute trading volumes and turnover rates [4] - Southbound capital is gaining pricing power, with a notable overweight in dividend-paying sectors and significant inflows into growth sectors [4] - Recent trends show that overseas capital has experienced a pattern of active selling followed by slight recovery, with a current trend of active outflows and passive inflows [4]