Group 1: Price Trends and Market Demand - Precious metal prices have significantly increased, with platinum and silver seeing notable price hikes, leading to a surge in consumer interest and sales [2][3] - As of August 4, platinum (Pt99.95) closed at 314.56 yuan per gram, up 40.57% from 223.77 yuan per gram at the end of 2024, while silver (Ag99.99) closed at 9201 yuan per kilogram, up 20.75% from 7620 yuan per kilogram at the end of 2024 [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand Drivers - Strong industrial demand is a core driver for the rising prices of precious metals, with silver being widely used in photovoltaic, 5G devices, and electronic components, and platinum playing a crucial role in the hydrogen energy industry [3] - The global energy transition has accelerated the installation of photovoltaic systems, directly boosting silver demand, while platinum's demand in fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen production is rapidly expanding [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks have significantly increased the safe-haven premium for silver and platinum, with ongoing conflicts affecting the export of platinum group metals from Russia and instability in the Middle East threatening key mineral transport routes [3] - The geopolitical conflicts and global economic uncertainties have heightened market risk aversion, leading to concerns over supply disruptions and triggering stockpiling behaviors [3] Group 4: Consumer Impact and Investment Trends - The rising prices of precious metal products are leading consumers to consider alternatives such as K-gold or gold-plated items, while the costs of renewable energy products may increase, indirectly raising the costs of green energy transitions [4] - There is a growing interest among individual investors in precious metals as a hedge against inflation, although high prices increase the risks associated with short-term speculation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data**: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - **Demand Side**: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - **Inventory Side**: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - **Demand**: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - **Inventory**: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - **Market Information**: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].

花旗还强调，2025年第二季度美国就业数据走弱，对美联储和美国统计数据的机构可信度担忧加剧，以 及与俄乌冲突相关的地缘政治风险上升。 该行表示："美国经济增长和与关税相关的通胀担忧将在2025年下半年继续加剧，加上美元走软，将推 动金价适度走高，达到历史新高。" 该行补充称，黄金需求强劲是受强劲的投资需求、温和的央行买入，以及尽管金价上涨，但珠宝需求依 然强劲等因素推动的。 传统上被视为政治和经济不确定时期避险资产的黄金，往往在低利率环境下走势强劲。 花旗估计，自2022年年中以来，黄金总需求已增长逾三分之一，到2025年第二季度，金价上涨了近一 倍。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (7.28-8.1) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油先扬后抑，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.26美元，周涨2.85%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.52美 元，周涨1.65%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶513元，周涨0.02%。周初，美国总统特朗普表示将把原先给俄罗斯的俄乌停火最后期限提前，按照 新的期限，俄罗斯需要在10天内与乌克兰达成停火协议，特朗普称，若俄罗斯未能与乌克兰达成停火协议，美国可能会对其施加经济惩罚，其 中包括对进口俄罗斯能源的国家施加二级制裁。与此同时，周内特朗普已宣布自8月1日起对印度进口商品征收25%关税， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the CXO industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The CXO index has increased by over 50% in the past year due to the easing of geopolitical risks, recovery in investment, and the digestion of high pandemic baselines [2] - Chinese CXO companies are analyzed from short-term, medium-term, and long-term perspectives to understand their global competitiveness [2] - Major players in the large molecule CDMO sector include WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, with over 70% of their revenue coming from overseas [2] - The small molecule CDMO sector shows strong recovery in domestic companies, with significant order growth and a favorable competitive landscape [2] - Clinical and preclinical CROs are currently in an adjustment phase, with domestic order prices stabilizing but showing no significant recovery [2] Summary by Sections Large Molecule CDMO - Short-term performance shows high growth with competition from Japan, South Korea, and Europe [2] - Medium-term order growth is led by South Korean companies like Samsung Biologics, indicating intense competition for Chinese firms [2] - Long-term capital expenditures remain high, reflecting confidence in future demand [2] Small Molecule CDMO - Domestic companies are recovering from pandemic-related performance dips, with overall growth expected in 2025 [2] - Order growth is robust, with WuXi AppTec's orders increasing by 47% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [2] - Long-term capital expenditures show divergence, with some leaders like WuXi AppTec expected to continue increasing investments [2] Clinical/Preclinical CRO - Both domestic and international CROs are in an adjustment period, with 2022-2023 investment cooling reflected in 2024 performance [2] - Medium-term order volumes and values are beginning to show growth, while international orders remain stable [2] - Long-term capital expenditures vary among companies, indicating potential supply-demand mismatches in the short term [2] Emerging Business Opportunities - Rapid development in new molecular businesses such as peptides and oligonucleotides is expected to open up growth opportunities in the CXO sector [3] - Generic drug CROs are actively pursuing innovative transformations to seek new growth points [3]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has agreed to significantly increase oil production in September, with a planned daily increase of 548,000 barrels, reversing previous production cuts and potentially leading to a supply surplus by the end of the year [1][3][2]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ is set to approve a daily increase of 548,000 barrels in an upcoming meeting, marking a shift from previous production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [3]. - This decision is seen as a response to geopolitical tensions and aims to alleviate pressure on oil prices, benefiting consumers and aligning with U.S. President Trump's objectives [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market may face an oversupply situation later this year due to the increase in production and slowing global economic growth [2][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The timing of OPEC+'s decision coincides with U.S. President Trump's threats of secondary sanctions on Russian oil exports, aimed at influencing Russia's actions in Ukraine [4]. - Trump's potential sanctions could lead to higher international oil prices, conflicting with his goal of lowering U.S. gasoline prices [5]. - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, making it challenging to predict the next steps in the oil market [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will stabilize around $70 per barrel following the OPEC+ decision, with expectations of a supply surplus beginning in October [3][5]. - The market is advised to monitor geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and global trade disputes for future price movements [6].

国际金价8月1日涨超1% 本周累计涨近2% 美国7月就业数据远不及预期，推高了市场对美联储的降息预期，而新的关税措施生效刺激了市场的避险需求，本周五国际金价上涨。截至收盘，纽约商 品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3399.80美元，涨幅为1.53%，触及一周高点。本周国际金价累计上涨1.92%。 美国6月非农就业人数意外增长14.7万，这不仅高于5月的14.4万新增岗位，也大幅超越经济学家普遍预测的11万，显示美国劳动力市场成功抵御了特朗普 政府贸易和移民政策带来的不确定性。这一意外强劲的数据将减轻美联储的降息压力，尽管特朗普多次公开呼吁该行采取降息行动。美联储主席鲍威尔本 周表态称，7月降息"仍在考虑范围内"，这似乎扭转了他此前"维持利率不变至秋季"的立场。 美债收益率、美元跳水。现货黄金、现货白银短线拉升。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | 99.0169 | | 前收 | 100.0654 | 开元 | 100.0560 | | -1.0485 -1.05% | | 卖 ...

石化周报 地缘风险+经济担忧驱动油价宽幅震荡 2025 年 08 月 02 日 ➢ 地缘风险+经济担忧驱动油价宽幅震荡。7 月 14 日，特朗普曾表示，如果俄 罗斯没有在 50 天内同乌克兰达成和平协议，美国将对与俄有贸易的国家征收 100%的"二级制裁性关税"；7 月 28 日特朗普表示将 50 天期限缩短至 10 至 12 天，后于 7 月 29 日表示将期限缩短至 10 天；特朗普还宣布自 8 月 1 日起对 印度商品征收 25%关税，并对其购买俄罗斯石油和武器的行为进行惩罚，同时， 美国官员宣称，若中国持续进口俄罗斯原油，将面临高额关税。受此影响，上半 周油价大幅上涨。此外，7 月 30 日，美国财政部宣布，对伊朗商人穆罕默德·侯 赛因·沙姆哈尼控制的航运网络实施制裁，涉及 50 多个实体和个人以及 50 多艘 运油船和集装箱船；当天，美国国务院也宣布，将参与伊朗石油和石化产品贸易 与运输的 20 个实体列入制裁名单，将 10 艘船只列为冻结资产，这是自 2018 年 美国政府对伊朗"极限施压"以来实施的最大规模制裁。然而，市场依然对经济 前景和 OPEC+增产后造成的供应压力有所担忧，美国 7 月非 ...

Core Insights - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons in Q2 2025, with a value surge of 45% to $132 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth was primarily driven by investment demand, central bank purchases, regional market differentiation, and structural changes in consumption trends [2] Investment Demand: Core Growth Engine - Gold ETFs and similar products were the main drivers of demand growth, with a net inflow of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with slight outflows in the same period of 2024 [3] - Cumulative inflows for the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020, reflecting institutional investors' hedging against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - In China, gold ETF inflows amounted to 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion), with holdings increasing to 200 tons and assets under management (AUM) surging 116% year-on-year to 152.5 billion RMB [3] - Demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with Chinese investors leading globally with a demand of 115 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [3] Central Bank Purchases: Long-term Support - Global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold in Q2 2025, remaining at historically high levels, 41% above the average from 2010-2021 [6] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing gold holdings in the next 12 months, highlighting a trend towards de-dollarization [6] - The People's Bank of China added 6 tons in Q2, totaling 19 tons for the first half of the year, with official reserves reaching 2299 tons, accounting for 6.7% of foreign reserves [6] Consumption Demand: Structural Changes - Global gold jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, nearing 2020 pandemic lows, with China's demand dropping 20% year-on-year to 69 tons, the weakest Q2 since 2007 [7] - Despite the decline, high-end jewelry demand remained resilient, while the mass market shifted towards lighter, more innovative designs, leading to a 21% increase in consumption value to $36 billion [7] - India's demand decreased by 17% year-on-year, although pre-wedding season purchases and trade-in policies mitigated some of the decline [8] Price and Supply: Market Balance Amid High Prices - The average gold price in Q2 reached $3280.35 per ounce, a 40% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12] - In China, the average physical gold price surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with retail prices fluctuating between 984-1018 RMB per gram [13] - Gold mine production increased by 3% year-on-year to 909 tons, a record high for the quarter, while recycled gold supply grew by only 4%, indicating a reluctance among holders to sell [14] - Overall, gold prices rose by 26% in the first half of the year, outperforming most mainstream assets [15] Regional Market: Differentiation and Resilience - The Chinese market exhibited strong investment but weak consumption, with total retail gold demand reaching 245 tons, a 28% increase year-on-year, despite weak jewelry demand [16] - In India, demand for gold bars and coins rose to 46 tons, but jewelry consumption fell by 17% due to price-sensitive consumers reducing purchases [17] - European demand doubled due to post-energy crisis risk aversion, while U.S. demand for bars and coins fell to 9 tons due to a high-interest rate environment [17] - The growth in gold demand underscores its dual value as a safe-haven asset and a long-term allocation tool [17] Future Outlook - Geopolitical developments, monetary policy trajectories, and changes in consumer behavior will be key variables influencing the gold market [19]