双方讨论了汇率和贸易问题，都认为汇率应该由市场决定。 美国财政部：财政部长贝森特会见日本财务大臣。 ...

日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正周二表示，东京在双边贸易谈判中要求美国取消关税的立场没有改变。 他说，如果达成协议会损害国家利益，日本不会急于达成贸易协议。 由于最初的快速达成协议的希望破灭，《日本经济新闻》上周报道称，日本可能会放宽要求，改为要求 美国削减而非取消关税。 一位知情谈判的知情人士告诉表示，日本正在考虑一揽子提案以获得美国的让步，这可能包括增加美国 玉米和大豆的进口、造船领域的技术合作，以及修订进口汽车的检验标准。 赤泽亮正周二在一次例行记者会上说："包括对等关税以及针对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等产品在 内的美国一系列关税令人遗憾。我们寻求审查并取消这些关税的立场没有改变。" 赤泽亮正表示，两国已于周一在华盛顿举行了工作层面的贸易谈判。他补充说，第三轮部长级谈判的日 程尚未确定。 日本共同社周二报道称，赤泽亮正将于本周前往华盛顿，参加可能于周五开始的第三轮谈判。 共同社援引未具名消息人士的话说，美国贸易代表格里尔（Jamieson Greer）预计将出席会谈，而财政 部长贝森特将缺席。 4月2日，美国总统特朗普对几乎所有国家征收了10%的关税，并对包括日本在内的许多主要贸易伙伴征 收了更高的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting measurements of China's GDP using exchange rate and purchasing power parity (PPP), highlighting a significant discrepancy in the perceived economic size of China compared to the US [5][10][12] - According to exchange rate calculations, China's GDP is approximately $19 trillion, about 65% of the US GDP of $29 trillion, while PPP estimates China's GDP at around $38 trillion, suggesting it surpasses the US [5][10][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic structures and the implications of these measurements on global perceptions of China's economic strength [12][26][38] Group 2 - China's agricultural output has consistently ranked first globally over the past decade, producing nearly 100 million tons more than the US, indicating a strong foundation for its economy [14][16] - In industrial production, China dominates global supply chains, contributing over 50% of the world's steel production, around 60% of electrolytic aluminum, and close to 45% of copper [18][20][24] - The manufacturing sector in China is robust, with the country leading in automobile production, home appliances, and electronics, holding significant global market shares [20][24] Group 3 - The article points out that the statistical methods used to measure GDP may overlook significant contributions from emerging service sectors and informal economies, leading to an underestimation of China's economic output [28][30][34] - The rise of gig economy workers and small businesses, which often operate outside traditional economic measurements, contributes to a substantial but unaccounted economic value [30][34] - The undervaluation of the Chinese yuan in international markets may also distort GDP figures when converted to foreign currencies, further complicating the assessment of China's economic size [36][38] Group 4 - The future of China's economic measurement may improve with more detailed service sector statistics and the ongoing internationalization of the yuan, which could provide a more accurate reflection of its economic standing [40]

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/19 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/16 | 4.480 | 4.648 | 3.262 | 2.589 | 3.595 | 3.211 | 0.295 | 3.341 | | 最新变化 | 0.047 | -0.011 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.024 | -0.019 | -0.042 | | 一周变化 | 0.100 | 0.082 | -0.002 | 0.028 | -0.013 | 0.006 | 0.023 | -0.016 | | 一月变化 | 0.144 | 0.001 | -0.031 | 0.057 | -0.120 | -0.028 | -0.15 ...

计划根据协议与贝森特就外汇问题进行谈判。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信：与美国财长贝森特确认汇率过度波动会损害经济，还确认了汇率应由市场决 定。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of the US-China trade conflict on various industries and macroeconomic conditions. Core Points and Arguments - **Global Supply Chain Constraints**: The US faces significant challenges in adjusting global supply chains in the short term, leading to persistent price increases that cannot be resolved through supply adjustments alone. This may require agreements with other trade partners or domestic subsidies for mitigation [1][3][4] - **Tariff Measures**: The US's imposition of tariffs is driven by economic, political, and social factors. The short-term goal is to address trade deficits and increase tax revenue, while the long-term goal is partial decoupling and maintaining global dominance, making complete tariff removal unlikely [1][5] - **China's Tariff Strategy**: China has adopted a strategy of suspending or canceling certain tariffs based on negotiation outcomes, making it one of the countries with the highest tax burdens globally due to tariffs related to fentanyl and investigations [1][5] - **Projected Revenue from Tariffs**: Assuming US imports reach $3 trillion in 2025, a 10% tariff could generate at least $200 billion in additional revenue, not accounting for potential future tariff increases on certain trade partners [1][6] - **Trade Negotiation Phases**: The current phase of US-China trade negotiations is the second stage, with expectations of continued tariff increases. The first phase saw China implement comprehensive countermeasures that exceeded market expectations [1][7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs**: The imposition of tariffs leads to decreased total output and increased prices in consumer countries initially, followed by rising interest rates and inflation. In producer countries, initial output declines are offset by falling prices and rising real wages [2] - **Sector Resilience**: Sectors with low trade correlation, such as consumer goods, services, and consumer banking, are expected to remain stable. Import substitution sectors like agriculture and certain chemicals show potential, while automotive parts and consumer electronics may receive exemptions [3][9] - **Commodity Price Trends**: Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with domestic policy support potentially weakening, leading to price volatility. Interest rates are expected to have limited downward pressure, and exchange rates may fluctuate around the 7.2 mark [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the current economic environment, it is recommended to focus on domestic demand sectors while maintaining a defensive investment posture. A small allocation to aggressive sectors is suggested to capitalize on market volatility [11]

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/15 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/14 | 4.538 | 4.712 | 3.378 | 2.698 | 3.710 | 3.316 | 0.354 | 3.458 | | 最新变化 | 0.071 | 0.043 | 0.025 | 0.020 | 0.013 | 0.019 | -0.009 | 0.010 | | 一周变化 | 0.267 | 0.254 | 0.184 | 0.225 | 0.163 | 0.188 | 0.158 | 0.164 | | 一月变化 | 0.046 | -0.040 | 0.027 | 0.131 | -0.100 | 0.019 | -0.041 | -0.062 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/08 | 4.380 | 4.545 | 3.239 | 2.532 | 3.582 | 3.174 | 0.253 | 3.332 | | 最新变化 | 0.109 | 0.087 | 0.045 | 0.059 | 0.035 | 0.046 | 0.057 | 0.038 | | 一周变化 | 0.170 | 0.037 | 0.003 | 0.013 | -0.045 | -0.006 | -0.135 | -0.015 | | 一月变化 | 0.194 | -0.069 | -0.158 | -0.078 | -0.283 | -0.168 | -0.153 | -0.201 | | 一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Lombardelli, stated that there have not been significant changes in trade patterns, with the primary impact being felt through exchange rates [1] Group 1 - The current trade model remains largely unchanged, indicating stability in trade dynamics [1] - The most substantial effect observed so far is through fluctuations in exchange rates, highlighting the importance of currency valuation in trade [1]