固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident this year, with the A-share market rising while the bond market faces pressure, leading to increased interest in secondary bond funds among investors [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through key levels of 3600, 3700, and 3800 in August, indicating a strong upward trend in the A-share market [1] - The total scale of secondary bond funds reached 807.7 billion yuan by the end of Q2, with a quarterly increase of 38.5 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The newly launched China Europe Fund's Youli Bond Fund expands investment scope to include A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and stock ETFs, aiming for diversified investment opportunities [2] - The secondary bond fund's unique risk-return profile is highlighted, with a maximum drawdown of only -6.93% over the past decade compared to much larger drawdowns in major stock indices [2] Group 3: Fund Management - The fund manager, Huang Hua, has 17 years of experience in the securities industry and emphasizes risk control and liquidity management in investment strategies [3] - The China Europe Fund's Youli Bond Fund is supported by a diverse investment research team with an average of over 9 years of financial experience, ensuring a systematic investment decision-making process [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility as investors face the classic dilemma of holding stocks or cash before the National Day holiday, with historical data suggesting a higher probability of market gains post-holiday [2][4][5]. Market Performance - On September 29, the A-share market stabilized, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.9% to 3862.53 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.74% to 3238.01 points, indicating active trading with a daily turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan [3]. - Historical patterns show that the A-share market tends to perform poorly before the holiday but recovers positively afterward, with a notable "calendar effect" observed [5][9]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that holding stocks during the holiday may offer better opportunities for gains, especially in the technology sector, which remains a focal point amid economic pressures [4][7]. - The recommendation includes maintaining a balanced asset allocation while being open to opportunities across different markets and asset classes [2][7]. Gold as an Investment Option - The rising international gold prices, which recently surpassed $3870 per ounce, have introduced "holding gold" as a new investment strategy, with significant returns on related financial products [8]. - Gold prices have increased over 16% since August, indicating a strong performance compared to traditional fixed-income products [8]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing weak sentiment, with a neutral outlook from institutions, as the ten-year government bond yield rose above 1.83% before retreating due to central bank interventions [6][10]. - The bond market's performance is expected to be influenced by stock market trends in the short term, but long-term movements will depend on economic fundamentals [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of holding stocks versus holding cash during the National Day holiday, highlighting the historical tendency of the A-share market to rise after the holiday and the emerging trend of "holding gold" as a new investment option [3][9]. Market Performance - On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the A-share market showed significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3862.53 points, up 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.35% [6][10]. - Historical data indicates that the A-share market has a higher probability of rising after the National Day holiday, with a noted "calendar effect" where the market tends to perform poorly before the holiday but recovers positively afterward [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that investors should consider a balanced approach, focusing on large-cap indices while being prepared to invest in sectors like technology, new energy, and precious metals during market adjustments [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset quality, recommending that investors hold stocks of companies with strong fundamentals while being cautious with overvalued stocks [11]. Gold as an Investment Option - The price of international gold reached a historical high of $3871.73 per ounce, marking a more than 16% increase since August and over 45% since the beginning of 2025, making "holding gold" a viable option for investors [9][12]. - The rise in gold prices has positively impacted related financial products, with many gold "fixed income+" products offering annualized returns between 2.00% and 4.00%, outperforming traditional fixed-income products [12]. Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - The article notes a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, where the A-share market has shown a pattern of rising more than falling since late June, while bond yields have been under pressure [14][15]. - Despite short-term pressures on the bond market, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for the A-share market, driven by advancements in sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the classic investment strategy dilemma of holding stocks versus holding cash as the National Day holiday approaches, highlighting historical trends and current market conditions that favor holding stocks over the holiday period [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On the last trading day before the National Day holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations around 3880 points, with a notable increase in trading volume, reaching a daily turnover of 2.18 trillion yuan [2][4]. - Historical data indicates that A-shares have a higher probability of rising after the National Day holiday, with a recorded 80% chance of an increase if trading volume expands in the last three trading days before the holiday [4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that investors should maintain a balanced asset allocation while considering their risk tolerance, with a focus on opportunities across different markets and asset classes [1][6]. - The "calendar effect" observed in A-shares suggests that holding stocks during the holiday may yield better returns, as evidenced by past performance trends [4][6]. Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a focal point for investors, particularly in the context of economic pressures, with expectations of policy catalysts following significant meetings in October [3][4]. - The recent surge in international gold prices, which reached a historical high of $3871.73 per ounce, has introduced "holding gold" as a new investment option for the holiday period [6][7]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently experiencing weak sentiment, with a neutral outlook from institutions, as the ten-year government bond yield rose above 1.83% before retreating due to central bank interventions [5][9]. - Despite short-term pressures from the stock market, long-term bond market trends are expected to align with economic fundamentals, indicating a potential decoupling from stock market movements [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility since July, with rising yields and a clear downward trend, influenced by the upward movement in equity and commodity markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen over 5 basis points, while the 30-year yield has increased by more than 8 basis points, surpassing 1.9% [1] - The bond market adjustment is attributed to the strong performance of equity and commodity markets, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies [1] - The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds remains at a historical low of 20 basis points, indicating a crowded and fragile trading structure [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market remain stable, with structural issues in the Chinese economy still needing resolution [2] - The real estate market is stabilizing, but the overall economic growth rate is declining, suggesting a prolonged period of asset scarcity [2] - The expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy, including potential rate cuts, supports the bond market's fundamentals [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The dividend yield of the CSI All Share Index has dropped to around 2%, narrowing the gap with the 10-year government bond yield, which enhances the attractiveness of bonds [2] - The estimated reasonable pricing for the 10-year government bond is between 1.8% and 1.9%, based on the anticipated spread with policy rates [2] - A breakthrough above the 1.9% yield level may require effective demand-side stimulus policies to be implemented [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance and strategies of the "Guangfa Juxin" fund, highlighting its long-term success and the stable management by fund manager Zhang Qian since 2015, which allows for a comprehensive understanding of its investment approach [2][29]. Group 1: Fund Performance - "Guangfa Juxin" has been established for over twelve years and has achieved an annualized return of over 9%, making it a standout in the 10-year performance category [2]. - The fund has significantly outperformed representative "fixed income +" fund indices, with an annualized excess return exceeding 4% compared to the Wind Mixed Bond Secondary Index [10][7]. - The fund demonstrates resilience, quickly recovering from downturns and consistently generating excess returns [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The fund employs a dual strategy of equity and bond investments, effectively utilizing a "stock-bond seesaw" approach to mitigate volatility [13]. - The bond investment strategy focuses on leveraging, duration management, and credit risk assessment, maintaining a leverage ratio around 120% for stability [18][20]. - The equity investment strategy emphasizes growth stocks, with a concentrated portfolio that avoids mainstream sectors, instead focusing on underappreciated industries like military and Hong Kong stocks [27][31]. Group 3: Risk Management - The fund manager exhibits a cautious approach to credit risk, having shifted away from low-rated bonds post-2020, demonstrating strong risk sensitivity [24][25]. - The duration of the bond portfolio is managed to remain within a safe range, avoiding excessive risk from interest rate fluctuations [20]. Group 4: Conclusion - The fund manager is characterized as a dynamic alpha hunter, adept at navigating both equity and bond markets, with a focus on growth-oriented strategies [30][31]. - The analysis concludes that the fund's success can be attributed to its balanced approach in managing systemic risks while capitalizing on market opportunities [32].

Group 1 - The announcement of significant financial policies by the central bank and regulatory bodies on September 24, 2023, marked a turning point for the A-share market, leading to substantial market gains in the following year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 40.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 65.23% in the year following the announcement, contrasting with declines in the previous year [1] - Trading volumes for major indices doubled after September 24, 2023, with the Shanghai Composite's trading volume reaching 165.91 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The low risk appetite among clients has historically limited the acceptance of equity-based financial products compared to fixed-income products, with equity products only accounting for approximately 0.23% of the total bank wealth management market as of June 2025 [2] - Following the September 24 announcement, there has been a notable increase in the hiring of positions related to equity investment and multi-asset strategies within wealth management firms [2] - The performance of equity-based financial products has improved significantly, with an average net value growth rate of 13.39% in the first eight months of the year [6] Group 3 - The bond market has experienced a bull market since 2024, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping to a record low of 0.9307% in December 2024 [3] - The bond market has shown different volatility patterns compared to the stock market, with periods of both correlation and independence in their movements [4][5] - The investment preference has shifted from dividend stocks to technology sectors, reflecting changing market dynamics [6][7] Group 4 - Despite increased interest in equity investments, clients maintain a low risk tolerance, with a significant portion of new affluent individuals unwilling to accept losses exceeding 10% [8] - The asset allocation of new affluent individuals has shifted, with a decrease in cash and fixed deposits and an increase in fund investments, indicating a growing interest in higher-risk financial assets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of significant financial policies by the central bank and regulatory authorities on September 24, 2023, marked a turning point for the A-share market, leading to a substantial market rally and changes in investment preferences [1]. Market Performance - Before September 24, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 8.6%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 17.12%. In contrast, after this date, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 40.19%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 65.23% [2]. - Trading volumes also doubled post-September 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index's trading volume rising from 82.09 trillion yuan to 165.91 trillion yuan [5]. Wealth Management and Investment Products - The financial policies have positively impacted wealth management companies, leading to increased interest in equity investment products, which previously had low market recognition compared to fixed-income products. As of June 2025, equity products accounted for only 0.23% of the total bank wealth management market [4]. - The average net value growth rate for equity wealth management products reached 13.39% in the first eight months of the year, significantly outperforming mixed and fixed-income products [10]. Investment Strategy Shifts - Post-September 24, there has been a noticeable shift in investment preferences from dividend stocks to technology sectors, reflecting changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [11]. - Despite increased interest in equity investments, clients maintain a low-risk appetite, with a significant portion of new affluent individuals unwilling to accept losses exceeding 10% [12]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has experienced a bull market since 2024, with the one-year government bond yield dropping to a record low of 0.9307% in December 2024. However, fluctuations in bond yields have been observed, necessitating close monitoring by fixed-income investors [7]. - The relationship between stocks and bonds has shown atypical behavior, with periods of both interdependence and independence, deviating from the traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of significant financial policies by the central bank and regulatory authorities on September 24, 2023, marked a turning point for the A-share market, leading to a substantial market rally and increased trading volumes [1][2]. Market Performance - Prior to September 24, 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 8.6%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 17.12%. In contrast, after this date, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 40.19%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 65.23% [2]. - The trading volume for major indices doubled after September 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index's trading volume rising from 82.09 trillion yuan to 165.91 trillion yuan [4]. Wealth Management and Investment Trends - The financial policies have positively impacted wealth management companies, leading to increased interest in equity investment products, which previously had lower recognition compared to fixed-income products. As of June 2025, equity products accounted for only 0.23% of the total bank wealth management market [6]. - Following the policy announcement, there has been a notable increase in job postings for roles related to equity investment and multi-asset strategies within wealth management firms [6]. - Equity investment products have shown strong performance, with an average net value growth rate of 13.39% in the first eight months of the year, prompting wealth management companies to increase their focus on multi-asset and equity products [10]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has experienced a bull market since 2024, with the one-year government bond yield dropping to a record low of 0.9307% in December 2024. However, fluctuations have been observed, necessitating close monitoring by fixed-income investors [7]. - The relationship between the stock and bond markets has evolved, with periods of both correlation and independence, indicating a departure from the traditional stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect [9]. Shifts in Investment Preferences - There has been a shift in investment preferences from dividend stocks to technology sectors post-September 24, reflecting changing market dynamics and investor sentiment [10][12]. - Despite increased allocations to high-risk financial assets, the risk appetite among new affluent individuals remains conservative, with a significant portion unwilling to accept losses exceeding 10% [12].