黄金突然闪崩，给市场的热情浇了一盆冷水，上周五金价快速下跌，人民币金价跌40元/克，伦敦金跌幅达300美元左右。 这一次，黄金上涨从8月15日维持了三个月以上，2280美元涨到4380美元，涨幅达1100美元，连续九周连创新高。 理智在疯狂面前一文不值，有人说：勇敢者先享受世界。而我认为过于激进的偏执不一定是勇者者的表面。 接下来，美联储利率决议将成为新的焦点，美国政府停摆导致多项数据公布推迟，避险情绪的不断升温推动黄金天天创新高。 早上有朋友问，黄金这次是调整还是中场休息，这一次回调的幅度是过去三个月以来最大的一次，而关键问题是会不会延续，尤其是凌面反弹的高点能不 能守住。 今天，我认为暂时先观望，看欧盘强弱再定调，牛市多急跌关键在于延续，看多但不追多，而看回调一定要谨慎，反弹后4280-85的范围内可以考虑短线 回调，日内多空看位置，长期布局看方向。 白银，黄金，铂金为代表的贵金属都涨疯了，白银今年涨了80%，黄金达到60以上，而铂金也是刷新历史高点，市场开始缺货缺料，大批人无脑涌入贵金 属市场。 2011年上一轮牛市和今天一样，疯狂到让人后怕，谁敢提示风险谁敢劝人下车，都将成为罪人，我对牛市的观点没变， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 本周贵金属市场继续强势收涨，白银走势整体强于黄金 图1、沪金与COMEX金期价 图2、沪银与COMEX银期价 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：关税局势风波再起，在避险买盘需求的支撑下，贵金属市场本周继续强势收涨，金银价格接连突破历 史新高。特朗普释放关税战升温信号，推动市场避险情绪显著抬升，但考虑到此前特朗普在关税问题上立场反复 不断，本轮关税局势实质性升温的可能性或仍相对有限。从当前盘面来看，虽技术指标显示市场严重超买迹象， 金银价格短期回落后均有较强的买盘需求支撑，且外盘ETF以及CFTC投机持仓仍未达到历史峰值水平，说明贵金属 仍有继续上行的空间。美联储官员近期言论偏向鸽派，9月会议纪要显示多数委员支持进一步降息以应对增长放缓 及就业疲软，10月和12月各有逾90%和80%的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a slight decline in domestic and international gold prices, prompting consumers to consider investment opportunities [1][4][9] - Domestic gold prices from major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are stable around 1,190 CNY per gram, while other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang offer competitive pricing, indicating a minor price variation across brands [2][4] - International gold prices showed a slight decrease, closing at 4,018.43 USD per ounce, with a daily fluctuation range indicating market volatility, while silver prices increased, and platinum and palladium experienced declines due to industrial demand issues [3][5] Group 2 - The article suggests strategies for consumers to make informed purchases, such as checking real-time prices and considering the purity and weight of gold, emphasizing the importance of balancing between jewelry and investment [4][6] - It highlights the potential of other precious metals like silver, which is gaining traction due to industrial demand, while platinum and palladium are facing challenges, suggesting a diversified investment approach [5][7] - The outlook for gold prices remains uncertain, with potential influences from Federal Reserve actions and market dynamics, indicating that consumers should stay informed and consider their purchasing strategies carefully [9]

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions that previously supported gold and silver prices have temporarily eased due to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is seen as a significant step towards ending the ongoing conflict [3] - The agreement, facilitated by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, includes the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, leading to a reduction in market risk aversion and downward pressure on precious metal prices [3] - The strong rise of the US dollar index to a nine-week high, alongside a decline in oil prices and stable US 10-year Treasury yields, has further compounded the pressure on gold and silver prices [3] Group 2 - Despite a short-term technical correction in precious metals, the overall bullish trend remains intact, indicating that gold and silver are still in an accelerating "mature bull market" [4] - The recent upward momentum in gold prices reflects investor demand for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, as well as a reassessment of the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy [4] - The alternating dominance of risk appetite and risk aversion suggests that gold and silver prices may maintain a high volatility pattern, with profit-taking becoming a regular occurrence [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market maintains an oscillating upward trend, with the price movements of gold and silver showing phased differentiation. Driven by the sentiment of repairing the gold - silver ratio, the performance of silver is significantly stronger than that of gold. The US initial jobless claims data is better than expected, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high. The core PCE year - on - year rose to 2.6%, slightly higher than expected, showing that inflation remains sticky. The US dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days, stabilizing above the 98 mark, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.2%. The short - term rebound of the US dollar may suppress the precious metal market. There are differences within the Fed on the future monetary policy path. The ETFs of gold and silver in the external market recorded large net inflows, and the market bullish sentiment remains high. It is recommended to conduct interval band trading and pay attention to short - term correction risks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 866.52 yuan/gram, with a week - on - week increase of 10.46; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 10939 yuan/kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 307. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 263220 lots, a decrease of 1085; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 508967 lots, a decrease of 35265. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 167719 lots, an increase of 2252; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 98895 lots, a decrease of 14959 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 68628 kilograms, an increase of 2802; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1189648 kilograms, an increase of 31382. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 857.03 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.04; the spot price of silver is 10770 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 275. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 9.49 yuan/gram, a decrease of - 6.42; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 169 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of - 32 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1005.72 tons, an increase of 8.87; the silver ETF holdings are 15361.84 tons, a decrease of 28.23. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, an increase of 339; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 52276 contracts, an increase of 738. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.38%, a decrease of 0.71; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.45%, a decrease of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.59%, a decrease of 0.94; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.58%, a decrease of 0.95 [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump will meet with the four leaders of Congress on Monday due to the approaching risk of the US government shutdown. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising. Affected by the US tariff policy adjustment, the global economic and trade frictions have heated up again, and the global economic and trade friction index in July was 110, at a high level. The amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year - on - year and 27.6% month - on - month, with the US having the largest amount involved [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of Pakistan reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves by $22 million for the week ending September 19, bringing total reserves to $14.38 billion [1] - The total national foreign exchange reserves reached $19.79 billion, with commercial banks holding net foreign exchange reserves of $5.41 billion [1] - The Pakistani Rupee appreciated slightly by 0.01% against the US dollar, closing at 281.41 on September 25, marking a cumulative appreciation of 0.84% since July [1] Group 2 - The price of gold in Pakistan decreased significantly on September 25, aligning with trends in the international market [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks, with both gold and silver futures reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract AU2512 closed at 860 CNY per gram, up 1.03%, setting a new historical record [1]. - The silver futures contract AG2513 closed at 10,397 CNY per kilogram, up 0.83%, also reaching a new high since its listing [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price has surged to 3,768 USD per ounce [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The primary drivers for the surge in precious metals prices include: 1. The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of two more cuts this year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, are increasing global market demand for safe-haven assets [1]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks and strong industrial demand for silver are providing solid fundamental support for precious metal prices [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Despite high gold prices, central banks globally maintained a net buying stance in July, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 2,098.43 tons by the end of August [2]. - In response to inflation concerns, European and American investors are accelerating their allocation to gold, with global physical gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of 5.5 billion USD in August [2]. Group 4: Market Risks and Recommendations - There is a technical correction pressure in the precious metals market due to the recent price increases, with potential short-term volatility if profit-taking occurs following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [4]. - The upcoming "National Day" holiday adds uncertainty to the market, as historical data shows no clear trend in gold and silver prices post-holiday, with a near 50% probability of price fluctuations [4]. - Analysts recommend that investors adjust their positions before the holiday, with suggestions to adopt a light position strategy, retaining a small number of gold contracts while advising to clear silver positions to mitigate risks during the long holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of August, gold and silver futures prices have been on a continuous rise due to heightened geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical records and silver prices approaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals despite warnings from several institutions about holding positions during the upcoming National Day holiday [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with expectations for two more cuts within the year, serving as a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are increasing global risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Continuous gold purchasing demand from global central banks and the strong industrial application prospects for silver are providing price support in the precious metals market [1] - Technical correction pressure exists for precious metals prices after a series of highs, indicating potential volatility in the short term [1] Group 3: Potential Risks - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials may lead to profit-taking by bullish investors, which could amplify short-term price fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been on a continuous upward trend due to rising geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical records and silver prices approaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with market expectations for two more rate cuts within the year, serving as a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are increasing global risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [1] - Continuous gold purchasing demand from global central banks and strong industrial application prospects for silver are providing price support in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Market Risks - Despite the optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals, several institutions have begun to highlight the risks associated with holding positions during the upcoming National Day holiday [1] - Following a series of price increases, there is inherent technical correction pressure on precious metal prices [1] - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials may trigger profit-taking among bullish investors, potentially increasing short-term volatility [1]