Market Overview - On December 22, the A-share market saw a significant increase, with major indices rising collectively, particularly the growth style [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Northbound 50 Index rose by 0.69%, 1.47%, 2.23%, and 0.24% respectively [1] - The overall market was active, with 2,984 stocks rising and 105 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,265 stocks fell [1] Sector Performance - The communication equipment sector attracted significant main fund inflows, exceeding 8.6 billion yuan, while other sectors like electrical machinery and consumer electronics also saw inflows over 2.5 billion yuan [2] - The Hainan sector surged by 9.41%, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up, driven by the anticipation of the island's full customs closure policy [3] - Precious metals stocks performed strongly, with several companies like Xiaocheng Technology and Hunan Silver rising over 7% [2] Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the current market is in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with clear mid-term policy and liquidity expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a release of pessimism, which may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and market volatility [4] - A classic "cross-year" and "spring" market trend is anticipated, with institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs [4] Strategic Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on defensive sectors in the short term while positioning for next year's policy benefits and industry prosperity [5] - Key areas of interest include artificial intelligence, new energy, and manufacturing sectors, which are expected to benefit from structural optimization and price recovery [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong performance on Monday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.69% to close at 3917.36 points, marking a four-day winning streak and successfully reclaiming the 3900-point level [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.47% and 2.23%, respectively. The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.88 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 130 million yuan compared to last Friday's 1.75 trillion yuan, indicating a growing bullish sentiment [1] - More than 100 companies hit the daily limit up, the first time since November 17, reflecting an increase in market enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - In terms of ETF performance, technology and resource sectors, represented by telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, led the gains, while textiles, apparel, and media sectors lagged behind [2] - The Star Market Semiconductor ETF, 5G Communication ETF, and Gold Stock ETF were among the top performers, while Hong Kong technology ETFs showed relatively lower gains, with the Hang Seng Technology ETF and Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF both rising by less than 1% [2] Group 3 - The recent market rally is driven by multiple internal and external favorable factors. Externally, the resolution of uncertainties such as the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and stabilization of U.S. tech stocks alleviated external risk concerns [3] - Internally, expectations for a moderately loose domestic monetary policy continue, with incremental capital entering the market through channels like the A500 ETF. Additionally, signals of reform from the Hainan Free Trade Port's operational closure have strengthened market confidence in economic prospects [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index found support at the 120-day moving average, leading to a continuous rebound and technical recovery [3] Group 4 - Looking ahead, multiple institutions believe the market is entering a window for cross-year layout. If trading volume continues to expand, indices may further target the 3950-4000 point range [4] - Signals indicate that a classic "cross-year-spring" market is brewing, with a focus likely on blue-chip indices represented by the CSI 300 and SSE 50 [4] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI 300 ETF and SSE 50 ETF, both of which have the lowest fees among similar market products [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a phase where internal and external factors affecting it may be nearing an end, with a relatively loose liquidity environment expected to continue until the first quarter of next year [2][6] - The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is likely to persist under the backdrop of low-interest-rate asset scarcity, providing a good opportunity for investors to position themselves for a "cross-year" market [2][6] - The A-share market's short-term fluctuations are primarily influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, with expectations that A-shares may resonate upward with global markets [2][6] Group 2 - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share indices, providing investors with diverse options for exposure to the Chinese market [2][6] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF covers a broader range of 500 companies [2][6] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating active market participation [1][6]

Global Assets - The "cross-year red envelope" and "spring market" phenomenon is observed, with Q4 historically showing higher stock index gains due to seasonal effects, dovish signals from central banks, and increased risk appetite during the holiday season [3][8] - In Q1, commodities show strong seasonal performance, with gold averaging a 4% gain, silver at 3.4%, and oil at 4.85%, influenced by OPEC adjustments and seasonal demand [10][14] - Global assets exhibit a strong resonance during China's "spring market," with increased odds of gains across global equity assets during this period [3][18] AH Market Trends - The current trading window is less sensitive to fundamentals, with the spring market expected to be neutral to strong in 2026 [3] - Historical data shows that A-shares have a higher win rate during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, while H-shares perform better from New Year to Spring Festival [3][34] - The main upward trend typically covers the period from the Spring Festival to the start of the Two Sessions, with a 94% overlap with actual upward trends [3] Style Patterns - Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks with a 75% win rate, particularly during the spring market [3] - Growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, with asymmetric potential returns where losing years are limited to a 4% drop, while winning years can exceed 10% [3] - The spring market shows a clear style switch between large-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] Industry Patterns - The spring market does not determine the main industry trends for the year, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, computing, and media showing relative strength [3] - Historical data indicates that communication and military industries have a higher probability of positive returns during the Spring Festival to Two Sessions period [3] - The overlap of top-performing industries during the spring market with the previous year's main trends is relatively low, indicating weak guiding effects [3] Technical and Practical Patterns - Entry points for small-cap stocks are recommended within the week before the Spring Festival, while large-cap growth and ChiNext stocks should be positioned early [3] - Important exit conditions include a single-day drop exceeding 2% and a weak MACD signal [3]

证券研究报告|2025年12月22日 资配跨年展望 春季躁动，你想知道的一切 资产配置研究·深度报告 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 01 全球资产 02 AH大势 03 风格 04 行业规律 05 技术实操 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 全球权益资产的"跨年行情"或"春季躁动"是否成立 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 全球资产的"跨年红包"与"春季行情"。1）季节效应上看，历年Q4全球主要市场股指涨幅更高，海外央行年末释放鸽派信号、外企 "岁末双薪"入市，圣诞假风偏提升驱动全球权益资产的"跨年红包"行情；2）大宗商品方面，Q1季节性偏强，黄金Q1强于Q4，银、 铜Q4强于Q1，布油四个季度表现逐季递减，受 OPEC 配额调整、冬季取暖和春季出行预期影响，一季度弹性偏大；3）全球资产如何共 振，中国"春季 ...

市场早盘集体走强，沪指收复3900点关口，中证A500指数上涨1.06%。从板块来看，海南自贸概念集体爆发，商业航天概念反复走强，算力硬件概念表现 活跃，半导体设备股盘中拉升；下跌方面，AI医疗概念震荡回落。 截至上午收盘，场内跟踪中证A500指数的ETF小幅上涨。其中，有12只中证A500相关ETF成交额超1亿元，3只超63亿元。A500ETF华泰柏瑞、A500ETF基 金、中证A500ETF早盘成交额分别为76.37亿元、75.96亿元、63.17亿元。 有券商表示，随着外围不确定因素陆续明朗，短期影响A股的外部压力趋于消退。近期一系列重要会议所释放的政策利好，共同营造了有利于风险资产表 现的环境，跨年行情或将在市场共识凝聚中徐徐展开。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | IOPV 溢折率 换手率 成交金额 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.245 | 0.97% | 1.2450 0.00% 18.35% 76.37亿 | | | 512050 | A500ETF基金 | 1.173 | 0 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月22日，A股三大指数集体走高，跨年行情拉开序幕，截止午盘，中证A500ETF南方（159352）放量 上涨0.99%，成交额54.94亿元。 近期资金大幅流入中证A500ETF南方（159352），截止12月19日，A500ETF南方（159352）近13天获得 连续资金净流入，该基金最新份额294.18亿份，规模356.84亿元。近5日资金净流入101亿元，近10日净 流入139亿元，近20日净流入141亿元。 业内人士表示，近期A500ETF的巨量交投与规模跃升，反映出机构化、指数化投资趋势的深化，以 及"耐心资本"入市渠道的进一步畅通。 晨星中国基金研究中心高级分析师李一鸣认为，近期A500ETF成交额放大可能是受到跨年行情预期与政 策催化的影响，国内外宽松政策预期升温推动资金布局跨年行情，A500指数作为重要的宽基品种，成 为资金配置工具。并且，政策引导耐心资本入市，宽基ETF成为增量资金入场的重要通道。 李一鸣表示，中证A500指覆盖沪深两市市值较大的股票，兼具大盘蓝筹的稳定性与中盘的弹性，行业 分布均衡，相比沪深300 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating a favorable cross-year trend for 2026, driven by various positive catalysts such as annual reports, policies, interest rates, and market sentiment, establishing the investment theme for the year ahead [5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - Historical data indicates that the A-share market typically performs well during the cross-year phase, often benefiting from multiple positive catalysts [5][10]. - The recent performance of various indices shows fluctuations, with the Hong Kong low-volatility dividend index experiencing a 25.7% increase over the past year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has seen a 15.44% increase [3][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions generally believe that dividend strategies remain a high-certainty allocation direction for the current phase, with small-cap dividend stocks potentially offering stronger price elasticity and valuation advantages compared to large-cap dividend assets [5][10]. - The report highlights the importance of dividend distribution mechanisms, noting that funds will distribute earnings when the excess return rate exceeds 0.5% [10][11]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The performance of various ETFs tracking dividend indices shows varied results, with the A500 low-volatility dividend ETF showing a 1.74% increase over the past year [3][9]. - The cash flow ETF, which excludes financial and real estate sectors, has shown an 8.32% increase over the past year, indicating strong performance among large-cap blue-chip stocks [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in A-shares have led to divergent expectations among investors during the "cross-year" phase, but the short-term impact of internal and external factors on A-shares may be nearing its end, with a relatively loose liquidity environment expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current low-interest-rate environment is likely to continue driving the trend of "deposit migration" among residents, providing a favorable opportunity for investors to position themselves for the "cross-year" market [1] - The recent pullback in indices has created a good entry point for investors looking to capitalize on upcoming market trends [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on growth styles during market dips, while dividend styles should emphasize phase-specific and structural opportunities [1] - Three main investment themes are recommended: 1. **Growth in Prosperous Sectors**: The AI technology sector is expected to transition into an application phase next year, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly in domestic markets. Key application areas include robotics, consumer electronics, intelligent driving, and software applications. Additionally, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, and solid-state batteries are entering a prosperous cycle [1] 2. **External Demand Breakthrough**: The trend of going overseas presents a relatively certain growth opportunity. Sectors to focus on include home appliances, construction machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and globally priced resources such as non-ferrous metals [1] 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention should be given to sectors nearing improvement points in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [1] - Dividend sectors possess defensive attributes but may still be more phase-specific and structural in nature, suggesting a bottom-up stock selection approach based on quality free cash flow [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is beginning to focus on the potential for a sustained appreciation of the RMB, which could influence asset allocation strategies [1] - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, leading to increased investor interest in these sectors [1] - Key sectors to watch under a strengthening RMB include aviation, gas, and paper industries driven by short-term muscle memory, as well as upstream resources, consumer goods, and services influenced by profit margin changes [1] Group 2 - The 2026 spring market is anticipated to be active, with a focus on non-mainstream sectors such as policy themes and high-dividend stocks, while the mainline structure (AI industry chain, cyclical stocks) may have limited upward potential [2] - A classic "cross-year-spring" market is forming, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, indicating stable incremental capital for the market [3] - The A-share market is expected to resonate upward with global markets, driven by clear mid-term policy and liquidity expectations following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. AI bubble concerns and Japan's interest rate hikes, with a potential upward trend as investor sentiment improves [4] - The focus for A-share industry allocation includes dividend value, cyclical recovery, and thematic hotspots, particularly in metals, non-bank financials, and AI sectors [4] - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with attention on potential signals for a small rally around the New Year [5][6] Group 4 - The market is experiencing a structural trend change, with significant discrepancies in expectations for consumption, non-bank finance, and technology sectors as 2026 approaches [10][11] - Key investment themes include AI applications, commercial aerospace, and nuclear power, with a focus on sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery and structural policy incentives [12] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive structural opportunities, particularly in AI, renewable energy, and quantum technology sectors [12]