隔夜，现货黄金在触及近两周低点3382.61后强势反弹，收报3313.38美元，展现出强劲的回升动能。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，目前在3324美元附近 徘徊。 这意味着，美联储内部对通胀预期、利率前景的分歧日益显现。 机构分析指出，美联储6月会议纪要反映出对未来通胀路径的激烈讨论，对价格走势的不确定性显著升温。 美联储内部分歧明显！ 隔夜，美国三大股指全线收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.49%，报44458.3点；标普500指数涨0.61%，报6263.26点；纳指涨0.94%，报20611.34点，创历史新 高。 消息面上，美联储6月会议纪要公布，经济前景不确定性居高不下。 北京时间7月10日凌晨2点，美联储发布了今年6月的会议纪要，其中显示，美联储官员一致同意将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。参会 官员们一致认为，尽管净出口波动影响了数据，但近期指标表明美国经济活动继续稳步扩张。失业率保持在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健，通胀率仍然 略高。经济前景的不确定性有所减弱但仍然居高不下。 由于关税政策在经济中的传导路径及贸易谈判的不同结果，美联储官员们对其通胀影响持不同观点。 部分参会官员认为，关 ...

【要闻汇总】 摘要周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但 在美盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货 白银反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周四（7月10日），周三，美元指数在97.5附近来回震荡，最终收跌0.01%，报97.45。基准的10年期美 债收益率收报4.340%，2年期美债收益率收报3.849%。现货黄金在欧盘一度失守3290美元关口，但在美 盘前加速上行，迅速收复日内大部分失地并转涨，最终收涨0.37%，收报3313.73美元/盎司；现货白银 反弹力度较黄金偏弱，最终收跌1%，报36.37美元/盎司。 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩周四表示，"我们正在马不停蹄地努力与美国达成初步协议，以尽可 能降低关税并提供企业所需的稳定性。 美联储 6 月 17 日至 18 日的政策会议纪要显示，大多数政策制定者仍然担心特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate and appreciate in July 2025, projected to be in the range of 7.10 to 7.25 against the USD, influenced by various domestic and international economic factors [1][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In June 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1575 to 7.1986, with the onshore rate between 7.1656 and 7.1895, and the offshore rate between 7.1575 and 7.1986 [2][3]. - The overall trend of the RMB is supported by the continued interest rate cuts by major global economies, which have positively impacted the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Factors - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth in consumer demand and ongoing economic recovery [3]. - The launch of the domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, marks a significant technological breakthrough for China, enhancing its economic stability [3]. Group 3: International Economic Factors - Major economies, including the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, have continued to lower interest rates, which has created a favorable environment for the RMB [2][5]. - Despite the stability in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, market expectations for future rate cuts have increased due to ongoing global monetary easing [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of China's economic growth, military advancements, and technological breakthroughs is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, supporting the RMB's stability [5]. - The anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US Congress, which could lead to significant fiscal pressure, may further influence market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5].

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in domestic market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have been strengthened, with the central government emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - Internationally, the US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, and the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress, with macroeconomic conditions expected to improve in the short term [1] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a potential early interest rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut in September dropping to around 80% [1] - Short-term strategies suggest a cautious approach to A-shares, with a preference ranking of stock indices over government bonds and commodities [1] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - Commodity markets are showing overall oscillation and rebound, with oil prices rebounding in the short term and non-ferrous metals continuing to show strength [1] - The strategy ranking for commodities is prioritized as precious metals, followed by non-ferrous, energy, and black metals [1]

7月10日涨停分析 今日共59股涨停，连板股总数18只，20股封板未遂，封板率为75%（不含ST股、退市股）。焦点股方面，森林包装与华光环能晋级6连板，塞力医疗走出8天 5板，宏和科技、长城电工、新中港等人气股跌停。 | 股票名称 | 板数 | 涨跌幅 | 涨停时间 | 上涨逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华光环能 | 6天6板 | 9.98% | 09:31 | 光伏+电力 | | 600475 | | | | | | 拓日新能 | 3天3板 | 10.05% | 09:50 | 光伏 | | 002218 | | | | | | 科陆电子 | 2天2板 | 10.02% | 09:25 | 光伏+固态 | | 002121 | | | | 变压器 | | 美丽生态 | 2天2板 | 10.03% | 09:36 | 光伏 | | 000010 | | | | | | 国晟科技 | 2天2板 | 9.93% | 14:47 | 光伏电池 | | 603778 | | | | | | 弘元绿能 | 3天2板 | 10.03% | 14:54 | 光伏 | | 60 ...

Macro News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on July 9 that the Russian military conducted a cluster strike on Ukrainian military airport infrastructure, achieving all designated targets [1] - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that Russia launched a new round of large-scale attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities, with a total of 741 aerial targets identified, most of which were intercepted [1] - The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 112 battles on the front lines on the same day, successfully repelling Russian advances in multiple directions [1] Defense and Trade - The Trump administration has resumed the shipment of certain weapons to Ukraine, including 155mm artillery ammunition and precision-guided rockets, following a one-week pause [2] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which Brazilian officials deemed unfair, emphasizing that Brazil is not a problem for the U.S. [2] - The precious metals market is experiencing price consolidation, with ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. and new tariff threats from the Trump administration affecting market sentiment [2] - Recent U.S. economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, impacting interest rate expectations [2] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts starting in September, influenced by trade policy clarity and economic data trends [2]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

7月10日黑色系全线上涨，螺纹钢也显著走强。午后最新一期国内钢材产量库存数据披露，光大期货黑 色团队表示，虽然目前螺纹现货处于供需双弱局面，库存在淡季持续小幅下降，市场矛盾和驱动都不 足，但近期市场对于减产有较强预期，预计短期螺纹盘面或将震荡偏强运行。 综合来看，光大期货黑色团队预计短期螺纹盘面或将震荡偏强运行。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据他介绍，供应方面，目前长流程钢厂利润处于高位，短流程钢厂亏损也有所收窄，不过受唐山、山西 等地限产以及部分钢厂淡季检修影响，螺纹产量有所下降。需求方面，目前国内处于高温多雨的消费淡 季，终端需求处于低位水平，不过随着预期改善，投机需求有所上升。 Mysteel监测数据显示，本周一至周三全国建材日平均成交量为9.34万吨，环比回落12.57%，杭州市场 螺纹日均出库量为3.09万吨，环比回升0.24%，杭州市场螺纹钢库存降至58.4万吨。 另外，邱跃成还提到，目前螺纹现货处于供需双弱局面，库存在淡季持续小幅下降，市场矛盾和驱动都 不足。近期市场对于减产有较强预期，据了解山西地区钢厂已接到限产通知，要求各钢厂以2024年度粗 钢产量基准水平（6028万吨）为参考，实施10%-3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, driven by strong demand from downstream steel companies and a rebound in spot prices due to active trading in the futures market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, coking coal futures saw a significant increase of 2.79%, reaching 884.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The average daily production of raw coal increased by 38,000 tons to 1.918 million tons, while the average daily production of premium coal rose by 26,000 tons to 765,000 tons, both hitting seven-week highs [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was reported at 85.5%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period [2]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in July due to the closure of the border during the Naadam Festival from July 10 to 17, which will further reduce imports of Mongolian coal [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends - In the Luliang market, the auction for low-sulfur coking coal saw a starting price of 1,040 yuan/ton, with a transaction average of 1,123 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 123 yuan/ton from the previous auction on June 25 [2]. - The overall sentiment in the spot market remains positive, with expectations of slight price increases in the futures market, contingent on potential regulatory changes in Shanxi province before September [3].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！ 先到先得！ 数据还显示，今年上半年，全球所有地区的黄金ETF均出现资金流入，其中，在美国上市的黄 金ETF吸引了206.8吨的资金流入，创下了五年来最强劲的上半年表现；在亚洲上市的黄金ETF 则吸收了104.3吨。 "尽管5月和6月的势头有所放缓，但亚洲投资者在今年上半年购买了创纪录数量的黄金ETF，在 仅占全球管理总资产9%的情况下，为全球净流入量贡献了28%的惊人份额。"世界黄金协会称。 Choice数据显示，今年以来截至7月8日，多只境内黄金ETF也获得显著的资金净流入。具体来 看，华安易富黄金ETF份额增长33.33亿份，按照7.17元成交均价计算，获得约238.84亿元资金 净流入；国泰黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF和博时黄金ETF均获得90亿元以上资金净流入。 作为上半年表现最佳的大类资产之一，黄金不仅价格持续走高，相关ETF也迎来巨量资金流 入。 世界黄金协会最新发布数据显示，今年1月至6月，全球黄金ETF"吸金"380亿美元，创下了自 2020年上半年以来的最大半年资金流入量。 上半年黄金ETF吸金380 ...