Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, while the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill reduce the demand for gold as a hedge and for allocation. The report expects the long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold to continue, but the price volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term mindset and medium - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Due to Trump's threat to Russia and the lack of breakthroughs in the China - US - Sweden economic and trade meeting, the US dollar index pulled back slightly after reaching 99, and London gold rebounded to around $3330 per ounce. The Politburo meeting's lack of specific deployment on anti - involution made silver, which has strong industrial attributes, relatively weak. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading. This week, attention should be paid to economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 775.25, up 0.29% with an open interest of 424,176 and an increase of 3248; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9,205, down 0.03% with an open interest of 835,724 and a decrease of 10,841; Gold T + D closed at 769.40, up 0.29% with an open interest of 214,988 and an increase of 8030; Silver T + D closed at 9,166, up 0.03% with an open interest of 3,535,666 and an increase of 30,532 [5]. - **Medium - term Trends**: Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The inflow of speculative funds into the silver and platinum markets in June has brought the gold - silver ratio back to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **China - US Economic and Trade Talks**: China and the US held a two - day constructive meeting in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced, and whether to extend the truce will be decided by President Trump [18]. - **IMF's Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, but warned that the global economy still faces significant risks [18]. - **Trump's Statement on Russia**: Trump said that if Russia shows no progress in ending the Ukraine war, the US will impose tariffs and other measures on Russia 10 days after July 29 [18]. - **China's PV Industry Association**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification statement, indicating that recent news about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, does not match the actual situation [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and currency system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in Q3 should be noted. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions [6]. - In the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Traders with a bearish view can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: After Trump's meeting with Fed Chairman Powell, market concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal discipline eased. Also, the trade situation improved, reducing the safe - haven demand. London gold fell from $3430 to around $3310 per ounce, and silver, with strong industrial attributes, also declined. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to important economic events and data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.35, down 0.30%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9225, down 1.89%; Gold T + D closed at 771.60, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9187, down 1.97% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macro Events/Data - The US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, with a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the threatened rate. The EU plans to invest about $600 billion in the US and increase purchases of US energy and military equipment [17]. - Thailand and Cambodia will hold a mediation meeting on border conflicts in Malaysia, with Thailand's acting prime minister and Cambodia's prime minister attending [17]. - The US government will announce the results of a national security investigation on semiconductor imports in two weeks [17]. - US core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined in June, but shipments increased slightly, indicating a significant slowdown in business equipment spending in Q2 [17].

基本面： 周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅低开后守住此前跌幅表现清淡，盘中最低测试至3319.12美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3333美元附近。因美国和欧洲 达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价仍受到部分逢低买盘支撑，因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%，为 连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 上周，美元指数从逾两周低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，还得益于市场对美欧贸易谈判乐观 情绪的消化。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美国股市标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上周 五创下收盘纪录新高，受助于对美国可能很快与欧盟达成贸易协议的乐观情绪。欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩于周日在苏格兰与美国总统特朗普会晤。此前，欧 盟官员和外交官表示，美欧预计周末将达成一项框架贸易协议。特朗普此前表示，与欧盟达成贸易协议的可能性为"50%"。 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将 ...

【要闻回顾】 随着美国与欧洲达成15%的关税协议、以及美日、美中间贸易缓和的积极进展，市场风险偏好回升，削 弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 据市场调查显示："当前的贸易乐观氛围削弱了黄金的避险需求，而美元走软又为金价提供支撑，两股 力量相互抵消，使黄金呈现震荡格局。" 投资者重点聚焦将于本周二召开的FOMC会议。尽管特朗普持续对美联储施压要求降息，但市场普遍预 期本次会议将维持利率不变，因美国劳动力市场仍表现强劲。 摘要7月25日，COMEX黄金库存录得1174.54吨，较上一交易日增持4.53吨；COMEX黄金周五（7月25 日）收报3338.50美元/盎司，下跌0.97%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3376.60美元/盎司，最低触及 3325.50美元/盎司。 7月25日，COMEX黄金库存录得1174.54吨，较上一交易日增持4.53吨；COMEX黄金周五（7月25日） 收报3338.50美元/盎司，下跌0.97%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3376.60美元/盎司，最低触及 3325.50美元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2025-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of strong dollar performance, developments in US-EU trade agreements, and geopolitical tensions, with potential implications for future investment strategies in gold [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a low of $3320 per ounce, currently trading around $3335 per ounce, following a nearly 1% decline last Friday [1]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong dollar and optimistic sentiment regarding US-EU trade agreements [1][3]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Its Impact - The dollar index rebounded from a two-week low, increasing the holding costs of gold for non-dollar investors, which contributed to the recent drop in gold prices [3]. - Despite short-term support for the dollar from economic data and trade negotiations, it recorded its largest weekly decline in a month, indicating potential limitations on further dollar appreciation [3]. Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The recent US-EU trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods and commitments from the EU to increase investments in the US, has reduced market uncertainty and diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4]. - The agreement's details have sparked controversy, with some European leaders criticizing it as unbalanced, which may leave room for future trade conflicts and potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, such as conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide long-term support for gold prices despite short-term declines in safe-haven demand [6]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, which is expected to sustain long-term demand for gold [6]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [7]. - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve could impact its independence and create downward risks for the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices [7]. Group 6: Upcoming Key Events - A series of important economic data releases and central bank meetings are scheduled, which may provide insights into future Federal Reserve policies and influence gold price movements [9][10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-Japan tariff agreement has significantly impacted gold's safe-haven demand, leading to a drop in gold prices despite a weakening dollar [5][8]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3431.03, peaked at $3438.54, and closed at $3386.89, marking a decrease of 1.30% with a trading range of 1.67% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 97.34, reached a high of 97.61, and closed at 97.19, down 0.17% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7221.46, closed at 7165.77, down 0.83% [3]. Tariff Agreement Impact - The US imposed a 15% tariff on Japan, which agreed not to retaliate and pledged $550 billion in investments in the US, indicating a perceived victory for the US in trade negotiations [5]. - The market speculates that a similar outcome may occur in upcoming negotiations with the EU, potentially reducing the need for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is at a critical juncture, with potential for a breakout or significant decline depending on market conditions and the dollar's performance [11]. - If gold prices confirm a breakout above certain resistance levels, a new upward trend may emerge; otherwise, a significant drop could occur [11]. Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Shanghai gold market, the AUTD gold price has seen an increase in discount relative to theoretical RMB prices, indicating strong selling pressure [13]. - The futures market shows a greater premium over spot prices, suggesting that while there is a strong desire to reduce inventory, speculative pressure remains low [14]. ETF Holdings Trends - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has maintained high levels of holdings, reflecting a consistent trend with gold prices, while the largest silver ETF, Ishares, has seen a stronger accumulation trend, indicating a divergence in market performance [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international gold price is expected to fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term [1][2] - Recent gold market activity shows London gold fluctuating between $3,250 and $3,450 per ounce, influenced by U.S. tariff agreements with multiple countries [1] - The U.S. economy remains resilient with inflation and retail sales data exceeding expectations, leading to market speculation that interest rates may not decrease in July [1] Group 2 - High gold prices are suppressing physical gold consumption and investment enthusiasm, with U.S. Mint gold coin sales dropping from 64,000 ounces in January to only 7,500 ounces in May [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with China's central bank increasing its reserves by 7 tons in June, which supports long-term gold prices [2] - Despite a recent decline in gold ETF inflows, global ETF holdings remain significantly below historical highs, indicating potential for renewed investment if gold prices continue to rise [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors including progress in US-EU tariff agreements, a rebound in risk assets, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Agreements Impact - The decline in gold prices is attributed to market expectations of easing trade tensions, highlighted by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, which reduced auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% and included a commitment from Japan to invest $550 billion in the US [3]. - The EU is also nearing a similar agreement with the US, potentially setting the baseline tariff for EU goods at 15%, alleviating fears of a 30% tariff increase on August 1 [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risk Assets - Optimism surrounding trade agreements has led to a rally in risk assets, with major US stock indices reaching new closing highs and significant gains in European automotive stocks [4]. - As a result, funds have shifted from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier investments, putting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with President Trump publicly criticizing Chairman Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which could influence future monetary policy [4][5]. - Current market expectations for a rate cut in September stand at 58%, indicating a divided outlook on future Fed actions [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Technically, gold prices are struggling to maintain levels above $3400, with potential declines to the $3350-$3330 range if the price falls below the July 16 high of $3377.17 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent pullback in gold prices may be a healthy profit-taking phase, with long-term bullish factors still in play, including geopolitical risks and US debt issues [6]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by three main factors: progress on trade agreements, signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, and upcoming economic data releases [8][9][10].

Fundamental Analysis - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and Japan has reduced tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. This agreement serves as a template for tariff policies and has led to a rally in Asian stock markets, diminishing the demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, as a Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe there will be no interest rate cut in July. President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell, raising fears about the Fed's autonomy. If the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively, it could lead to soaring inflation, which would support gold prices. Currently, the market anticipates a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for gold [3]. - Key economic events to watch include the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 20:15, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 20:45, and U.S. initial jobless claims data at 20:30 [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop after three consecutive days of gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. The recent low is near the 5-day moving average, and the price is currently below this average, indicating a potential weakening trend. Key support levels to monitor are around 3365/3360, with further support at trendline levels of 3334 and 3320 if the decline continues [4]. - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3381, gold showed a slight rebound. The price needs to stay above 3381 for a potential upward movement, with resistance levels at 3410, 3417, and 3426/3427, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price declines, support levels to watch are at 3374, 3359, and 3337 [6]. Summary of Key Levels - Support levels to monitor include 3381, 3374, 3365/3359, 3337/3334, and 3320. Resistance levels to watch are 3410, 3417, 3426/3427, and 3438/3439 [7].