Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing slight rebounds but remain under downward pressure, currently trading around $3,337 per ounce, following a close at $3,332.05 per ounce on June 25 [1] - The ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, but uncertainties surrounding US-Iran negotiations and potential conflict risks provide a support level for gold prices [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation risks from tariffs may lead to a stronger dollar, which could suppress gold prices, while signals of economic slowdown reinforce expectations for rate cuts and gold's role as a safe haven [1] - Recent geopolitical events, including the ceasefire and Trump's announcement of upcoming talks with Iran, have injected new uncertainties into the gold market [1][3] Geopolitical Events - President Trump announced the rapid end of the Iran-Israel conflict, attributing it to military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities, and expressed optimism about Iran's willingness to engage diplomatically [3] - Despite the optimism, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog cautioned that Iran's technical capabilities remain intact, indicating that geopolitical risks are not fully resolved, which provides some support for gold [3] - The potential for renewed conflict remains, as both sides claim to have achieved their strategic goals, but the market is currently leaning towards a more optimistic outlook due to the ceasefire [4] Economic Data - The US Commerce Department reported a 13.7% decline in new home sales in May, marking the largest drop since June 2022, with inventory levels reaching a high not seen since October 2007 [5] - High mortgage rates and rising economic uncertainty, compounded by tariffs on imported materials, are suppressing housing demand, leading to a drop in builder confidence to a two-and-a-half-year low [5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high at 85%, but the Fed's cautious approach to inflation could delay this, impacting gold prices depending on upcoming inflation data [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices recorded a small entity close, indicating potential pressure after a significant drop, with key support levels to watch around $3,290 to $3,300 [7] - Short-term price movements suggest a challenge to the lower boundary of the previous trading range, with traders advised to monitor the $3,300 and $3,290 support levels closely [7]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下以色列和伊朗勉强同意停火协议，同时美联储主席 鲍威尔国会作证时表示经济就业韧性使得美联储有条件继续按兵不动以观察关税 政策对通胀的真实影响，隔夜伦敦黄金一度回调至 3295 美元/盎司；但消息称美 国空袭并未摧毁伊朗的核心核能力而仅可能将其进程延后数月，且鲍威尔表示若 通胀确实受控则美联储愿意更早而不是更晚降息，因此伦敦黄金小幅反弹至 3300 美元/盎司上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have recently declined due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with prices hitting a two-week low of 3295 before closing at approximately 3323, reflecting a drop of about 45 points [1] - The unexpected drop in the US June Consumer Confidence Index by 5.4 points to 93.0, marking a recent low, suggests increasing consumer concerns regarding job opportunities and the economic outlook for the next six months [1] - The market's shift towards risk appetite, driven by the ceasefire, has led to a rise in global stock markets and a decline in the US dollar, which fell below the 98 mark to around 97.8, contributing to the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Following Jerome Powell's remarks, the market adjusted its expectations regarding the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, adding complexity to the market dynamics and leading to a temporary stabilization of gold prices [3] - Gold prices have retreated to the 30-day moving average around 3330, with short-term indicators suggesting a bearish trend, indicating a potential for further declines in the near term [3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade disputes continues to influence market sentiment, with expectations of a weak oscillating trend for gold prices in the short term [3]

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a rare "double kill" scenario in June 2025, with a monthly volatility of 35%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - Investors who timed the market effectively achieved over 15% returns, while those who chased trends faced losses exceeding 20% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions significantly influenced short-term price fluctuations, with gold prices surging nearly $30 to $3398 per ounce on June 23 due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, followed by a drop to $3342.59 on June 24 after a ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated, with a hawkish stance initially suppressing gold prices, but dovish signals later provided support, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 80% [2] Group 2: Market Patterns - The volatility premium indicated that for every 1-level increase in geopolitical risk, gold price daily fluctuations expanded by 40% [4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve communications led to significant price swings, with gold prices experiencing ±1.5% changes within two hours of announcements [5] Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and China's central bank expected to increase holdings by 200 tons in 2024 [7] - The wedding season in China (June to August) is projected to boost gold jewelry consumption by 8% year-on-year, contributing to 45% of global physical demand [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to remain complex in July, with $3350 acting as a critical support level; a breach could lead to a decline towards $3250-$3300, while stability above $3400 may trigger buying pressure [8] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony and the release of the U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices significantly [9]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has significantly reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impacting market sentiment and reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The ceasefire is set to last for 12 hours, with both parties confirming their acceptance of the agreement mediated by Qatar, contrasting with previous military actions that raised tensions [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, spot gold prices fell to $3342.59 per ounce, breaking below the $3350 mark, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand [1][3] - International oil prices also declined, with a drop of up to 6%, reaching a two-week low of $64.38 per barrel, indicating a significant easing of concerns regarding energy supply disruptions [1][3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish monetary policy has become a focal point, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting possible rate cuts as early as July due to labor market concerns [4][5] - Despite the dovish signals, the immediate impact on gold prices is overshadowed by the reduction in geopolitical risk, with market pricing indicating a 23% probability of a rate cut in July, rising to 80% and 92% for September and October, respectively [4][5] Group 4: Economic Data and Inflation Risks - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. business activity, with rising input costs attributed to tariffs, and a slight year-on-year increase in existing home sales, indicating weak demand [5][6] - ING warns that renewed tensions in the Middle East could lead to rising oil prices, which may increase inflationary pressures and complicate the Fed's ability to implement monetary easing [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold may test the $3300 support level, influenced by geopolitical developments and Fed policy divergence [8] - In the long term, uncertainties in the global economy, including trade protectionism and inflation pressures, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [8][10]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry on June 24, 2025, provided by the macro - financial team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Analysis Intraday Market - Due to the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, geopolitical risks pushed the price of London gold up to around $3400 per ounce during the Asian session on the 23rd. But it later fell back to around $3350 per ounce. The Trump 2.0 new policy boosts the safe - haven demand for gold [4] Domestic Market Data - Shanghai Gold Index closed at 783.42 with a 0.36% increase; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8794 with a 1.23% increase; Gold T + D closed at 777.60 with a 0.12% increase; Silver T + D closed at 8730 with a 0.77% increase [5] Mid - line Market - In April, multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to exceed $3500 per ounce. Although the price has回调 from its high, the mid - level upward trend remains intact. Long - and mid - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but short - term price surges lead to increased volatility [5] Group 5: Main Macro Events/Data - The US military destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. European foreign ministers' attempt to prevent conflict escalation had little success [17] - Russian President Putin's remarks on Ukraine were condemned by the Ukrainian foreign minister [17] - The Fed's report shows that US inflation is somewhat high, the job market is stable, and the impact of Trump's tariff increase is uncertain [17] - The US Commerce Department may revoke the authorization of global chip manufacturers in China, and Japan canceled a high - level meeting with the US [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, particularly the inability to break new highs since April, indicate a potential downturn in the short term, influenced by central bank purchasing patterns and ongoing geopolitical factors [1][4][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices peaked at $3,500 in April but have since declined, nearing the $3,300 mark, with a continued volatile trend observed [1]. - Positive U.S. employment data and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have contributed to the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with silver and platinum showing stronger performance [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the inability of gold to surpass $3,400 indicates rising downside risks, with critical support levels at $3,300 and $3,120 [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchasing Behavior - Central banks, particularly in China, have slowed their gold purchases after seven months of consistent increases, which may weaken support for gold prices [4][9]. - China has accumulated 1.03 million ounces of gold since November, but the pace of purchases has decreased significantly in recent months [4]. Group 3: Company Performance and Market Dynamics - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold has experienced significant volatility, dropping 13.4% in four trading days, reflecting the broader trends in gold prices [1][5]. - Lao Pu Gold has adopted a unique pricing strategy that has led to a substantial increase in profit margins, achieving a gross margin of 41.2% and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, a 253.9% year-on-year increase [5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding Lao Pu Gold's inventory levels and cash flow, with speculation about potential financial practices affecting market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term uncertainties, there is a strong consensus among institutions regarding the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by increasing demand for asset diversification amid economic instability [8][9]. - Historical patterns show that significant debt expansions correlate with rising gold prices, suggesting that ongoing fiscal challenges may further elevate gold's value [8].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility, nearing the $3300 mark after peaking at $3500 in April, with a lack of new highs observed since then [1][2] - Positive U.S. employment data and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have contributed to the fluctuations in gold prices, with short-term forecasts appearing less optimistic [1][2] - The support level for gold is currently at $3300, with potential declines to $3200 and $3000 if this level is breached [3] Group 2: Gold Mining and Retail Stocks - Gold-related stocks, such as Lao Pu Gold, have shown significant price fluctuations, with a recent drop of 13.4% over four trading days, although a recovery was noted shortly after [1][4] - Lao Pu Gold has adopted a unique pricing strategy, achieving a gross margin of 41.2% and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 253.9% [4][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding Lao Pu Gold's financial health, particularly regarding high inventory levels and cash flow issues, which may impact market sentiment [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term uncertainties, there is a strong consensus among institutions regarding the long-term outlook for gold, driven by increasing interest in diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets [6][7] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for continued central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the future [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The focus for the week is on U.S.-China trade negotiations and inflation data following a week of dense employment data, with key price stability indicators set to be released [1] - Positive progress in trade talks could temporarily boost market risk appetite, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, while long-term demand for gold is expected to remain supported due to supply chain restructuring and global economic slowdown caused by the trade war [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, indicating a potential reversal of the inflation slowdown trend observed since January [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Gold Demand - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for gold prices, with low expectations for rate cuts before September, but investors betting on a possible 25 basis point cut later in 2025 [2] - If inflation data exceeds expectations, the Fed may delay rate cuts, supporting the dollar and exerting short-term pressure on gold prices, while long-term geopolitical risks and economic recovery uncertainties are likely to sustain gold's safe-haven demand [2] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting a strategic emphasis on gold as an asset and potentially boosting global gold demand [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains a concern, with U.S. officials indicating that Russia's retaliation for Ukraine's drone strike on May 31 has not yet been fully executed, suggesting a significant response may be forthcoming [2]

Market Overview - Spot gold fell by 1.27% on Friday, closing at $3309.47 per ounce, marking a near three-week low; COMEX gold futures dropped 1.31% to $3331.00 per ounce [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded expectations with an increase of 139,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, diminishing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Market expectations for a September rate cut decreased from 88% to 60%, leading to a stronger dollar and rising 10-year Treasury yields, which suppressed gold's safe-haven demand [1] Gold Market Dynamics - On Monday, gold exhibited a downward trend, following several consecutive red candlesticks after an initial green candlestick, indicating a prevailing selling pressure [2] - The opening price was $3312.23, with a peak at $3321.16, reflecting a gradual decline in price [2] Currency Market Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed some volatility on Friday, opening at 98.74, and remained in a fluctuating state, having previously touched a near 32-day low [4] - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data for further direction on the dollar's trajectory [4] Employment Data - The ADP report for May revealed an increase of 275,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 180,000, indicating robust demand for labor, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [5] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's May Services PMI was revised down to 53.2 from an initial 53.5, indicating a slowdown in growth despite remaining above the neutral level of 50 [6] - Weak new order growth and declining business confidence in Germany (PMI at 52.1) and France (PMI at 53.7) raise concerns about the overall economic recovery in the Eurozone [6] Federal Reserve Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported moderate economic growth in the U.S. from mid-April to late May, with easing labor market tightness and stable consumer spending, although manufacturing activities face challenges [7] - Overall price pressures are easing, with most regions reporting a slowdown in cost increases [7]