Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 950 points, reaching a new intraday high, following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting potential interest rate cuts if conditions allow [1][3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 100.10 points, or 1.57%, closing at 6470.27 points, while the Nasdaq increased by 421.80 points, or 2.00%, to finish at 21522.11 points [3] - Powell indicated that the balance of risks may necessitate adjustments to the policy stance, despite low unemployment rates, highlighting significant changes in tax, trade, and immigration policies [3][4] Group 2 - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole annual meeting emphasized a cautious approach to policy changes, noting that the labor market is experiencing an unusual balance due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand [4][5] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 91% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, reflecting market expectations following Powell's speech [3] - Concerns about inflation persist, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, which Powell acknowledged as a risk that needs to be managed [5]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美股周五午盘继续上扬，道指飙升950点创盘中新高。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔备受期待 的讲话中暗示未来可能降息。目前道指涨954.91点，涨幅为2.13%，报45740.41点；纳指涨384.27点，涨 幅为1.82%，报21484.59点；标普500指数涨102.13点，涨幅为1.60%，报6472.30点。周五早间，道指最 高上涨至45748.82点，再创盘中新高。 ...

Group 1 - The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference commenced on August 21, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivering a significant speech indicating rising downside risks to U.S. employment and suggesting a potential policy adjustment by the Fed [1][17] - Following Powell's remarks, traders increased bets on a Fed rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut soaring to 91.1%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate dropped to 8.9% [1] - U.S. stock indices rose sharply after the speech, with the Dow Jones up 1.82%, Nasdaq up 1.83%, and S&P 500 up 1.52% [1] Group 2 - Major tech stocks experienced a collective rise, with Tesla increasing over 5% [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell below the 98 mark, reported at 97.8371, down 0.82% for the day, while non-U.S. currencies strengthened [4] - International gold prices rose, with spot gold surpassing $3,370 per ounce, and silver increasing over 2% to $38.965 per ounce [8][9] Group 3 - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw a significant increase, with the China Golden Dragon Index rising over 1.5%. Notable gains included Miniso up over 15%, NIO up nearly 14%, and Pinduoduo up over 4% [12] - Miniso reported a 23% increase in revenue and an 11% rise in non-IFRS net profit for Q2, exceeding expectations and prompting Bank of America to raise its target price for Miniso from HKD 32 to HKD 46.9 [14]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and rising labor market risks during his speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, marking a significant moment in his tenure [1][2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, but there are signs of significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [1] - Recent labor data revealed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2% [5] - The core consumer price index rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2% [5] Political and Market Pressures - Powell faces unprecedented political pressure from President Trump, who is advocating for aggressive rate cuts and influencing Fed decision-making [2][4] - The upcoming September meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, as Powell navigates between economic challenges and political pressures [4] Future Projections - Analysts predict that the Fed may officially begin the rate-cutting process in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut and a total reduction of approximately 100 basis points by mid-2024 [6] - The current low unemployment rate does not preclude the possibility of rate cuts, as the labor market is undergoing a "payroll recession" rather than a traditional unemployment recession [6] Implications for Asia - A potential rate cut by the Fed could positively impact Asian economies, particularly smaller open economies that rely heavily on trade, helping to alleviate export slowdown pressures [7] - The investment landscape in Asia may present numerous opportunities, especially in sectors related to high dividends and artificial intelligence, as central banks in the region have room to maneuver with rate cuts [7]

Group 1 - The annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference commenced on August 21, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivering a keynote speech indicating that inflation is expected to rise while the labor market remains weak, suggesting potential interest rate cuts to support economic growth [1] - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 720 points (1.6%), the S&P 500 increasing by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.6% [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 11,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, reaching 235,000, the highest since June 20, and above the expected 225,000 [1] Group 2 - The July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the market expectation of 100,000, with revisions showing a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June combined, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged for eight consecutive months since December, with concerns about the labor market and inflation expressed in the July meeting minutes [3] - Analysis suggests that Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference indicates readiness for a rate cut in September, with market expectations for a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up from 70% prior to his speech [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能降息后，美国生物科技股上涨。 来源：滚动播报 ...

鲍威尔称风险变化要求调整政策，美联储又有官员被喊辞职！特朗普欲促成三边峰会，普京开出停火条件。以色列开启加沙城总攻，美科技股连日遭抛售… 本周你错过哪些刺激行情？ 行情回顾 美联储主席鲍威尔周五晚上十点在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，改变甚至扭转了多个交易品种在此前一周内的走势和格局。 美元指数周初录得上涨，原有望摆脱此前两周的疲软表现，主要因为美国8月PMI超预期上行，初请失业金人数增幅创八周新高，且多位官员放风打压降息 预期。但是，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话让美元几乎抹去周内全部涨幅，因他表示风险平衡变化可能要求调整政策立场，交易员解读为释放9月降息信号。 现货黄金原本呈现震荡偏空走势，但鲍威尔的讲话使金价"一飞冲天"，扭转本周的整体表现，料将转而录得收涨。 非美货币方面，在美元此前走强的压力下，欧元、英镑和澳元兑美元周五前均呈现明显跌势，但在鲍威尔讲话后几乎抹去本周全部跌幅。美元兑日元原本录 得上涨，但杰克逊霍尔也使其扭转了局面。 高盛预计，美元走弱将推动新兴市场货币套息交易表现强劲。德商银行认为，关税或推高美国通胀并拖累美元。 法兴银行称，英国财政前景黯淡，英镑中期或逐步走弱。 国际油价本周震荡走高，在美俄峰会和美 ...

特斯拉(TSLA.US)在美联储主席鲍威尔暗示可能降息后上涨超4%。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "inflation concern faction" is likely to support a rate cut only if the August non-farm payroll data shows weakness again [1] - The Australian Federal Bank economist suggests that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be a catalyst for the dollar's movement, but no clear signals are expected [2] - Analysts indicate that the German economy showed disappointing second-quarter GDP data, with a downward revision from -0.1% to -0.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut rates two more times this year to 2.50% [3] - ING economists predict a surge in South Korean consumption in the third quarter due to government cash handouts, although weak construction investment may hinder overall growth [3] - The expectation for the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on October 8 is a 25 basis point rate cut, with over 90% of economists forecasting this outcome [3]

今日周五(8月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9229一线下方，今日开盘于9187元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9209元/千克，上涨0.55%，最高触及9254元/千克，最低下探9187元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 美联储正站在一个关键的十字路口。一方面，劳动力市场放缓的迹象和特朗普的降息压力要求货币政策更宽松；另一 方面，通胀率仍高于目标，且服务业通胀的上升为降息敲响了警钟。博斯蒂克、施密德、古尔斯比和柯林斯的不同表 态反映了美联储内部对经济前景的分歧：是优先抗击通胀，还是适度宽松以支持经济增长？这一问题不仅关乎美国经 济，也将对全球市场产生深远影响。 杰克逊霍尔研讨会为美联储提供了一个重要舞台，鲍威尔的讲话可能为市场提供方向感。然而，无论美联储最终选择 何种路径，政策的连续性和稳定性都将是关键。正如博斯蒂克所言，反复无常的政策可能动摇公众对美联储的信心， 而施密德和古尔斯比的谨慎态度则提醒我们，通胀的"最后一公里"往往最为艰难。柯林斯的开放态度则为市场保留了 一线希望，降息的可能性并未完全消失。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周四走出上涨空间，当前收高至9270，趋势力度 ...