Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. has decreased to 6.19%, marking the second lowest value of the year, following 6.17% on October 30 [1] - This rate has declined for two consecutive weeks, down from 6.23% a week prior and 6.69% a year ago [1] - The decrease in mortgage rates is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contributing to an overall downward trend since July [1] - In October, existing home sales in the U.S. increased by 1.2% month-over-month, reaching the highest level in eight months, attributed to the decline in mortgage rates [1] - The drop in mortgage rates is seen as positive for potential homebuyers, enhancing their purchasing power, although economic uncertainty and a weak job market may still affect buyer confidence [1] Group 2: Employment Market - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a reduction of 32,000 jobs, indicating a stagnation in employment growth expected in the second half of 2025 [2] - This data reflects layoffs within private enterprises, raising concerns about the weakening of the U.S. job market [2]

| 贵金属日评20251205:全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-03 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-28 | 收盘价 | 956. 70 | -3.28 | 953. 42 | 953. 92 | -0. 50 | | | | | | | | | | 成交重 | 300096.00 | 310489.00 | 189713.00 | 10, 393. 00 | 120, 776. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 202129.00 | 197638.00 | 197799.00 | -161.00 | -4. 491.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90870.00 | 90873.00 | 90873.00 | -3.00 | -3.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 1.03 | 948. ...

从库存结构来看，上游煤矿与洗煤厂累库明显，下游独立焦化厂则呈现去库态势，钢厂库存小幅波动。 这种库存向上游转移的现象显示出当前市场需求承接能力不足。从现货市场的贸易情况看，煤焦也确实 处于采购情绪偏谨慎的阶段，交易活跃度不高，竞拍流拍率较高。下游企业以消化自身库存为主，刚需 补库成为主流，投机需求受到明显抑制。不过，目前现货层面的利空因素已经逐步兑现。按蒙五原煤计 算的焦煤仓单价格在1150~1180元／吨，现货已经升水焦煤2601合约，期货盘面对现货层面的利空已经 进行计价。进入12月，焦煤市场的利多因素浮现，如神火股份下属煤矿暂时停产等事件，为市场提供了 潜在的反弹契机。市场正处于"估值到位但时间未到"的状态。 展望12月行情，焦煤期货将呈现"短期承压、中期震荡偏强"的格局。短期来看，铁水产量下降、焦炭提 降落地、进口煤持续到港等因素仍将对价格形成压制，焦煤期价仍有压力，但考虑到当前估值偏低、现 货价格底部支撑较强，进一步下跌的空间有限。中期来看，随着中央经济工作会议召开和释放政策信 号，宏观预期有望持续改善。随着焦煤价格持续下跌，补库性价比逐渐显现，下游焦钢企业补库的意愿 也将增强，冬储需求在12月中旬 ...

12月5日，华泰证券研报称，10月后，虽然美元指数有所反弹，但人民币兑美元汇率总体走强。12月3 日，离岸人民币盘中突破7.06，达到14个月高点。近期，离岸人民币汇率表现强于中间价和在岸汇率， 显示市场对人民币升值的预期升温。 华泰证券认为，随着近期美联储降息预期的下修基本到位，叠加我国出口增长保持强劲等因素，春节前 结汇高峰来临，人民币升值有望渐入佳境。维持2026年底美元兑人民币汇率6.82的预测。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：本周以来黄金冲高回落，沪金在 960 关口遭遇一定阻力。11 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - It is recommended to short Shanghai silver futures due to the fading macro - level benefits, technical callback signals, and potential variables in funds and supply - demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is advisable to treat the market as a high - level oscillation [8]. - For gold, it is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support, and a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14]. - For glass, a bearish oscillation view is taken from a technical perspective [17]. - For coking coal, considering the tight supply and cautious downstream procurement, opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. - For pulp, before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - Macro - level: The rise of Shanghai silver depends on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Positive US economic data will cool down the expectation, strengthen the US dollar, and suppress silver prices. The current price has reflected a large amount of the expectation, and price decline may occur after the benefit is realized [3]. - Technical level: After the rise, Shanghai silver is prone to over - buying. Signals such as the KD value turning around above 80, MACD top divergence, price hitting the upper Bollinger Band, large deviation from short - term moving averages, long upper shadows at high levels, and price rising with volume shrinking indicate weak upward momentum, suitable for light - position short - selling trials [3]. - Funds and supply - demand: The sharp rise has led to strong profit - taking demand. A significant decrease in positions during the price rise means capital withdrawal. The high volatility of Shanghai silver is unsustainable, and short - selling volatility can be profitable when it falls. The supply of mined silver may gradually recover, alleviating the supply - demand tension [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market showed an upward trend in the afternoon after morning oscillation today. The Shanghai Composite Index was weak, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong in the afternoon. Whether the adjustment is over needs further confirmation, and the market should be treated as a high - level oscillation [8][9]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting capacity has decreased, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main driving factors are the supply - side clearance policies. Technically, a bearish oscillation view is taken as the daily line has continuously closed with negative candles [17][18]. Coking Coal - Downstream enterprises' procurement is cautious, with low inventory and mainly for rigid demand. On the supply side, some coal mines have reduced production due to underground problems, and the overall supply remains tight. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. Pulp - The Lion brand pulp mill in Canada's BC province with an annual output of 380,000 tons will permanently shut down from December, accounting for about 1.5% of the commercial bleached softwood pulp capacity. The Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso with a capacity of 650,000 tons has a one - month temporary shutdown. Affected by foreign pulp mill production cuts and capital games in deliverable products, the futures price has risen significantly. Before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23].

Group 1: International Macro - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached the lowest level since September 2022, with a decrease of 27,000 to 191,000, against an estimate of 220,000 and a previous value of 216,000 [7] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are rising, with an 87% probability of a cut next week according to the CME FedWatch Tool [7] Group 2: Corporate News - Meta is considering a budget cut of up to 30% for its metaverse division, which includes products like Meta Horizon Worlds and the Quest virtual reality department, with potential layoffs as early as January 2026 [8] - Microsoft announced a global price increase for Office software subscriptions for business and government customers starting July 2026 [9] - Mercuria plans to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from Asian warehouses due to anticipated supply shortages, with the current value of this copper estimated at approximately $460 million [9] Group 3: Institutional Insights - The World Gold Council's 2026 outlook report indicates that gold prices may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, with potential increases of 15% to 30% under adverse conditions, or declines of 5% to 20% if inflation returns [10] - Goldman Sachs states that the recent rise in copper prices is driven by expectations of future supply tightness rather than current fundamentals, predicting that copper prices will fluctuate between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton until 2026, with a real shortage expected by 2029 [10]

Group 1 - The rebar steel market is operating weakly, with the main contract closing at 3110 CNY/ton, a monthly increase of 0.13%, while the East China spot price is at 3250 CNY/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month, indicating a potential for a short-term rebound in December [2] - The apparent consumption of rebar steel decreased from 232.18 million tons at the end of October to 216.37 million tons by mid-November, with steel mills facing losses leading to negative feedback across the industry chain [3] - The macroeconomic outlook has strengthened, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rising from 63% to 87% by December, alongside positive signals in domestic PMI data, suggesting improved demand [4] Group 2 - Environmental production restrictions in Tangshan have tightened, potentially affecting daily iron output by approximately 3.91 thousand tons, with further inspections and adjustments likely due to violations found in steel production capacity [5] - Demand for rebar steel has outperformed expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 1.15% in apparent demand during the last week of November, marking the first positive growth in four months [6] - The cost support logic remains intact, with iron ore inventories at a five-year low and coking coal inventories also relatively low, indicating room for replenishment and reinforcing cost support for steel production [8]

据央视财经，受到全球铜供应趋紧和对美国潜在关税的担忧等，当地时间12月3日，英国伦敦金属交易 所铜价格一度触及每吨11540美元的历史高位，国际铜价继续刷新历史新高。 美联储降息预期也是影响铜价的一大因素。美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的最新就业报告显示，11 月美国私营部门意外减少约3.2万个工作岗位，这一数据远低于市场此前预期的新增岗位。另据美国劳 工统计局公布的数据，9月美国进口物价指数月率为0%，也低于市场预期的0.10%。 上海钢联铜事业部研究员崔钊瑞表示，11月21日多位美联储高级官员集中发表讲话，部分官员表态 偏"鸽"，美联储内部的分歧依然显著。市场对美联储12月降息25bp的预期急速升温，短期内或对铜价有 所支撑。 业内人士表示，此轮铜价上涨受到多重因素影响。首先，全球铜供应趋紧推高铜价。受到智利矿山坍塌 事故影响，全球矿业与大宗商品巨头嘉能可近日宣布下调今年铜产能至85万到87.5万吨，比2018年减少 近4成，同时该公司也下调了2026年铜产量预期。其次，市场普遍预测特朗普政府明年或对铜加征关 税。分析师称，为规避关税，近期出现包括铜在内大量金属运往美国的情况，全球铜库存可能很快降至 ...

昨日12月4日（星期四），黄金早盘小幅上涨4217附近受阻下跌，到中午最低跌至4175附近。随后行情企稳开始震荡上涨，到凌晨最高上涨至4219/4220区 域，收盘前回落至4200-4210区间震荡，日线收出一根下影线长于上影线的十字阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国劳动力市场数据 核心利好数据：12月4日公布的上周初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创逾三年新低，远低于22万人的预期，降幅达2.7万人；未经季节性调整申请人数骤降近5 万至19.7221万人，续请失业金人数减少4000人至193.9万人，缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。 整体来看，短期，在PCE数据公布前，市场观望情绪浓厚，黄金或维持窄幅震荡，受美债收益率上涨与美元弱势双重作用，难现大幅突破。中长线上，全球 不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍具吸引力；劳动力市场韧性与美联储降息预期为金价提供支撑，若PCE数据低于预期，或触发新一轮买盘。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金价格于周三呈现冲高回落态势，周四则下探后震荡回升，整体围绕4200上下展开区间震荡。从技术指标来看，5日均线已逐步走平，10日 均线与20日均线维持多头发散格局，短期趋势仍具一定支撑性。 今日开盘价位于 ...