Core Viewpoint - Despite the market turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policies, global stock markets experienced a surprising "V-shaped" rebound in April, largely due to measures taken by the Trump administration to soften trade policies, which reassured investors about potential government intervention if economic data worsened [1][19][20]. Market Performance - In April, the S&P 500 index fell by only 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 3.2%, and the Nasdaq index actually rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week but rebounded by approximately 18% in the following weeks [4][9]. - The Dow and S&P 500 indices have seen seven consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500's increase over this period being the largest since November 2020 [3][2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, yet the stock market showed strong rebounds, with the Dow Jones up by 0.3% and the S&P 500 up by 0.1% on the day of the contraction announcement [2]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a wide fluctuation of 50 basis points in April, closing at 4.173%, slightly down from 4.245% a month prior [7]. Asset Class Performance - The U.S. dollar fell over 4% in April, marking its largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest since September 2010 [10]. - Gold prices increased by nearly 6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains, while Bitcoin surged by 14%, achieving its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November [11]. - Conversely, WTI crude oil had its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021 [12]. Market Divergence - There is a notable divergence in U.S. economic data, with strong "hard data" contrasting with collapsing "soft data," leading to investor confusion regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [13][15]. - Institutional investors remain cautious despite the S&P 500's 14% rise since April 7, while retail investors are aggressively increasing their positions, particularly in the Nasdaq market, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment [16][17]. Market Logic Behind Rebound - The market's recovery is attributed to the Trump administration's measures to soften trade policies, including a 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for tech products, which have made investors believe that further government action will be taken if economic conditions deteriorate [19][20]. - Weak economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reviving the "bad news is good news" market logic [23]. Historical Context - The April market rebound presents both good and bad news for investors. Historically, major monthly drawdowns have often led to subsequent gains, with 9 out of 10 instances showing positive performance in the following months. However, the exception in December 1973 during the "Nixon Shock" raises concerns about potential stagnation [25][26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility during the May Day holiday, with spot gold prices dropping over $50 in a single day, falling below $3240 per ounce, and showing a cumulative decline of over 5% from historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by multiple factors, including a easing of international trade tensions, as the U.S. is set to announce the first batch of trade agreements and potentially lower some tariffs, which alleviated global economic risk concerns and suppressed gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Investor profit-taking due to heightened fear of high prices further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies acted swiftly in response to the volatility, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusting trading fees, margins, and price limits for gold futures to mitigate market risks [1] - Several banks issued urgent warnings, advising investors to approach precious metal investments with caution due to increased volatility [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there remains a divergence in market sentiment regarding future trends, with some economic data suggesting a potential resurgence of safe-haven demand, while expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide upward momentum for gold [2] - Long-term support factors for gold prices include continued accumulation by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar, which may drive prices higher again [2] - The key variables for future gold price movements may hinge on the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and whether the global economy achieves a "soft landing" [2]

原油月报 ——宏观情绪缓和 静待OPEC+会议 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-04-30 04 后市研判 行情PA回RT顾01 宏观叠加基本面利空 原油价格大幅下跌 4月份原油价格在宏观层面叠加基本面利空的影响下，跌破前期低点并创2021年8月以来新低， 此后在宏观压力边际转弱及OPEC+扩大补偿减产规模的利好支撑下，原油价格企稳反弹，但是宏观 层面的利空并未实质消除，特朗普政策的关税政策对全球经济的冲击逐渐显现，全球主要经济体经 济数据环比走弱，同时，OPEC+产量政策转向及内部分歧的影响下，原油中长期供应宽松的格局难 以逆转，原油价格再次承压，存在二次探底的风险。 宏观PA分RT析02 关税压力缓和 不确定依旧存在 Ø 开启关税战。2025年4月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低基准关税"， 并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。 Ø 暂缓对等关税执行。北京时间4月10日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在其Truth Social社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停征收"对等关税"，在90 天内对多数国家关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of recent U.S. trade policies and economic indicators on the gold market, indicating a complex interplay between short-term pressures and long-term safe-haven demand [2][3] - President Trump signed an executive order to alleviate tariff impacts on automakers, while the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed a secret trade agreement, aiming to reduce market anxiety [2] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, potentially dragging down Q1 GDP by nearly 2 percentage points, raising concerns about economic performance [2] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index fell to a five-year low in April, and job openings dropped by 288,000 in March, signaling economic weakness [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its Q1 GDP forecast to a contraction of 0.8%, reflecting growing pessimism among economists [2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, the long-term safe-haven logic remains intact, as indicated by David Meger, who noted that the recent price correction is merely technical [2] Group 3 - Current gold T+D prices are at 780.88 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.49%, and trading has seen a high of 786.00 yuan and a low of 779.65 yuan [3] - Resistance levels for gold are observed at 835-840 yuan, while support is seen at 760-765 yuan [3]

Domestic Macro: Important Dynamics and Focus Points - The Politburo meeting at the end of April indicated that incremental policies will be introduced based on the situation, with potential for timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - Attention is needed on whether relevant policies will be implemented, as well as the impact of significant overseas data releases and changes in US trade policies during the May Day holiday on domestic markets [1] Overseas Macro: Key Data and Policy Impact - The US continues to signal trade easing, with new trade policy signals being closely monitored for their market impact [1] - During the May Day holiday, the US will release GDP data for Europe and the US for Q1, along with April non-farm payroll and PMI data, which are critical as they represent the first monthly data following US tariff policies [1] - The potential cooling of the economy could either bolster optimistic rate cut expectations, enhancing global risk appetite, or raise concerns about US stagflation risks, putting pressure on risk assets [1] Stock Indices: Mixed Signals and Range-Bound Expectations - The A-share market has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around 3300 points, driven by increased external demand pressure and the implementation of domestic policies [1] - The resilience of the index is supported by macro policies aimed at stabilizing employment, but there are concerns about insufficient domestic fundamentals and ongoing disturbances from US tariff policies [1] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations influenced by performance disclosures and the interplay of policy expectations, trade policies, and earnings reports during the period from late April to mid-May [1] Gold/Silver: Market Disturbances and Uncertainty in Trends - The easing of the US-China tariff conflict and potential agreements in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation have reduced risk aversion, leading to alternating rebounds in risk asset prices and high adjustment risks for precious metals [1] - However, enhanced expectations for US rate cuts and the continued low levels of the US dollar index and real yields on US Treasuries provide some support for precious metals [1] - The upcoming release of key US economic data during the May Day holiday will be crucial, as it could influence rate cut expectations and subsequently impact gold prices, with potential for fluctuations based on market sentiment regarding US stagflation risks [1]

·混沌天成期货：贵金属长期仍旧强势但需要警惕情绪的波动影响 ·五矿期货：金银价格应当维持中期的多头思路 ·国信期货：地缘风险消退可能引发贵金属高位回撤 五矿期货表示，隔夜公布的美国经济数据进一步弱化，联储宽松货币政策预期存在进一步体现的驱动。 关键的美国3月JOLTS职位空缺人数为719.2万人，大幅低于预期和修正后前值的748万人。美国4月谘商 会消费者信心指数为86，低于预期的87.5和前值的93.9，达到2020年5月份以来的最低水平。在美国财政 赤字扩张、美联储货币政策边际宽松预期以及海外经济风险持续的背景下，对于金银价格应当维持中期 的多头思路。黄金前期在出现大幅上涨后价格出现阶段性的显著回落，当前价格走势总体偏弱，需关注 主力合约下方747元／克一线的支撑，沪金主力合约参考运行区间747-808元／克。 国信期货表示，黄金回调主因美元指数反弹及地缘风险溢价短期兑现。展望后市，贵金属市场或呈现区 间震荡特征，COMEX黄金或关注3200美元／盎司附近的支撑位承接力度，对应沪金或关注780元／克 左右的支撑位，可逢低布局黄金；白银聚焦工业需求改善与金银比修复，关注结构性补涨。地缘风险消 退可能引发贵金 ...

特朗普政府的政策转向对金融市场影响深远。周二，特朗普签署行政令，对汽车制造商提供税收抵免以减轻关税冲击，美元指数应声上涨 0.3% 至 99.22， 黄金价格则震荡承压至 3320 美元下方。美国商务部长透露的秘密贸易协议，舒缓了市场焦虑。但这背后是关税政策对经济的反噬，3 月商品贸易逆差达 1620 亿美元新高，或拖累一季度 GDP 下滑近 2 个百分点。同时，4 月消费者信心指数降至五年低谷，职位空缺骤减，高盛预测经济萎缩 0.8%，与市场表面 缓和形成反差。随着经济数据临近公布，市场进入关键博弈期。关税缓和降低黄金避险吸引力，经济放缓却强化美联储降息预期。政策预期与经济现实的落 差，将引发市场更大波动。投资者面临诸多不确定性，需密切关注经济数据、政策和市场情绪，调整策略，预判利率，把握资产价格波动规律，才能实现资 产保值增值。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周二美元指数呈现出上涨态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至 99.349的位置，最低则下探至98.906，最终以 99.188的价格收盘。回顾 周二市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线先获得支撑进一步上涨，随后价格持续震荡运行，从位置上看价格于日线阻力位置下方， ...

4月29日，受贸易谈判进展顺利影响，市场避险情绪降温，黄金短线回落。截至收盘，COMEX黄 金期货跌0.60%报3327.60美元/盎司。截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.71%，今年以来涨幅 达到26.96%；黄金股ETF（159562）下跌0.13%。 消息面上，美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，已与一个匿名国家达成贸易协议，且特朗普透露与印度的 关税谈判进展顺利。此外，特朗普计划签署行政令，豁免部分汽车制造商的关税，这些消息提振了市场 信心。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，美国3月JOLTS职位空缺719.2万人，大幅不及预期的750万 人，较此前一个月显著回落，降至自去年9月以来的最低水平，显示出在经济不确定性加剧的背景下， 劳动力需求趋于疲软。在特朗普政策不确定性未明之前，企业正在搁置招聘计划，劳动力 ...

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