研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 4 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 4 月份特朗普对等关税措施引发全球金融市场海啸并将全球经贸体系重组推 入快车道，多重避险需求共振推动金价狂飙并一度突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然情 绪冲击减退以及全球贸易形势边际缓和使得金价高位回调，但整体看中级上涨趋 势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则推动国内外改革的决心并没有根 本性变化，美国国际贸易法院判决无法彻底阻止特朗普的关税武器化行动，特朗 普漫天要价和极限施压的谈判风格带给市场更大的不确定性。而在黑天鹅事件逐 步落地之后市场要继续面对全球贸易货币体系加速重组对跨国产 ...

黄金周二（6月3日）早盘小幅上涨3392附近后开始震荡下跌，欧盘以及美盘初延续下跌，最低跌至3333附近，尾盘震荡反弹，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美元走强：美元周二上涨0.6%，从逾一个月低点回升，以美元计价的黄金对外国买家成本上升，抑制需求。不过，美元短期回升未改变整体承压趋势， 黄金作为避险资产吸引力仍在，但短期上行空间受美元强势限制。 2、贸易战与关税政策：特朗普提议将进口钢铁和铝关税翻倍至50%，引发市场关注。欧盟表示将推动美国降税，但美国要求贸易伙伴短时间内提交修订提 议，谈判紧迫性使市场情绪谨慎。贸易战可能致全球经济增长放缓，推高避险需求利好黄金，同时美元阶段性走强和市场对美联储政策观望又限制黄金上 涨。此外，美国参议院审议的减税和支出法案预计未来十年为联邦政府增加3.8万亿美元债务，可能削弱美元长期吸引力，间接支撑金价，而短期内外汇期 权市场交易员普遍预期美元进一步走软，或为黄金提供反弹机会。 3、美国劳动力市场疲软：美国4月职位空缺增加19.1万至739.1万，但裁员人数创九个月最大增幅达178.6万，裁员主要集中在中小企业的专业和商业服务、 医疗保健及餐饮行业。4月辞职人数减少15 ...

操作策略： 从当前4小时K线形态分析，今日开盘后金价再度突破前期高点，最高达到3392。日内整体呈现震荡整 理格局，价格以缓慢回调为主。晚间交易翁老师建议等待出现明确企稳信号后实施顺势交易策略。需重 点关注3325-3335的支撑区间，晚间操作应根据价格回调幅度选择适宜的做多点位。若在企稳后出现反 弹，首要目标位可看至3380，随后进一步关注前高3390-3400区域。若该阻力位被有效突破，则可继续 持有头寸并上看3400上方。具体操作建议方面，翁富豪建议在晚间回调至3330-3335区间时考虑建立多 单。 周二亚洲交易时段，金价小幅回落，主要因美元指数自六周低位温和反弹且市场风险偏好改善。隔夜风 险资产价格上涨，降低了对避险资产的需求，促使部分黄金多头获利离场。然而大家仍对全球市场环境 保持谨慎态度。美国财政赤字持续扩大、中美经贸摩擦加剧以及俄乌第二轮和谈未达成协议等因素，继 续支撑黄金的避险需求。当前市场正处于美元短期反弹与中长期避险需求之间的博弈状态，但多项基本 面因素仍对黄金构成利好，包括地缘政治风险上升、贸易紧张局势加剧、美联储偏宽松的政策预期以及 美国财政状况不稳定等因素。 1.黄金建议回调至33 ...

6月3日，白银、SC原油涨超2%，低硫燃料油、黄金、氧化铝、棕榈油、沥青涨超1%；合成橡胶、20号胶、玻璃、焦煤跌超3%，烧碱、菜粕、多晶硅、纸 浆、PTA跌超2%，硅铁、对二甲苯、瓶片、苯乙烯、工业硅、沪锡、沪胶、螺纹钢、鸡蛋、铁矿石、沪铝、菜油、玉米淀粉、焦炭、锰硅、短纤、豆粕、 热卷跌超1%。 橡胶继续下挫，玻璃焦煤连创新低 截至3日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1340.59点，较前一交易日上涨1.07点，涨幅0.08%；中证商品期货指数收报1856.24点，较前一交易日上涨 1.48点，涨幅0.08%。 避险需求推动贵金属再度走强，地缘局势变化导致油价上涨 端午节后首个交易日，国内商品市场贵金属及原油跟随外盘走高，其中沪银主力合约以2.85%的涨幅领涨，沪金主力合约收涨1.40%；SC原油主力合约涨超 2%。 消息面上，乌克兰方面表示，在乌国家安全局1日发动的特种作战行动中，至少13架俄军战机被摧毁。俄乌第二轮直接谈判结束，但据乌方表示，俄方在会 谈期间拒绝了30天无条件停火的提议。关税方面，美国总统特朗普5月30日说，6月4日起，将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的25%上调至50%。地缘局 势 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, while the short - term remains in a range - bound pattern. It is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from late May to June. The report views short - term pullbacks as medium - to - long - term buying opportunities, but prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the near term [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals oscillated slightly lower overall but rose strongly on Monday. Negative factors included the postponement of the EU 50% tariff threat deadline, the rise of US stocks, bonds, and exchange rates, good 5Y US Treasury auctions, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts. Positive factors included the restoration of tariffs by the US Court of Appeals, Trump's invitation to meet Powell, escalating tariff concerns, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2] 3.2 Fund and Inventory - **Fund Holdings**: Long - term fund holdings showed that the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 7.74 tons to 930.2 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF increased by 86.25 tons to 14303.75 tons last week. Short - term fund holdings (as of May 27) indicated that gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10203 to 174184, and silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 2970 to 53012 [3] - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 tons to 1206.5 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 77.6 tons to 15427.6 tons. SHFE gold inventory remained at 17.25 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 106.2 tons to 1066.9 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 85.9 tons to 1396.6 tons [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - **Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday night, other US employment data during the week, and US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data [3] - **Events**: Key events include speeches by Fed Chairman Powell, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, as well as interest rate decisions by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank [3] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Precious Metal Prices**: SHFE Gold Main Contract was at 771.8 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 7.48 yuan (0.98%); CME Gold Main Contract was at 3406.4 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 93.3 dollars (2.82%); SHFE Silver Main Contract was at 8218 yuan/kg with a daily decrease of 6 yuan (- 0.07%); CME Silver Main Contract was at 34.93 dollars/ounce with a daily increase of 1.855 dollars (5.61%) [6] - **Price Spreads**: The SHFE - TD gold spread was 3.78 yuan/gram with a daily increase of 1.95 yuan (106.56%); the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan/kg with a daily increase of 4 yuan (57.14%); the CME gold - silver ratio was 97.5208 with a daily decrease of 2.6485 (- 2.64%) [6] 3.5 Stock and Position - **Inventory**: SHFE gold inventory was 17247 kg with no change; CME gold inventory was 1192.8069 tons with a decrease of 13.6728 tons (- 1.13%); SHFE silver inventory was 1066.885 tons with an increase of 30.966 tons (2.99%); CME silver inventory was 15408.5188 tons with a decrease of 19.0654 tons (- 0.12%); SGX silver inventory was 1396.605 tons with a decrease of 85.875 tons (- 5.79%) [14] - **Position**: SHFE gold position was 181246 lots with no change; SHFE silver position was 334026 lots with no change; SPDR gold position was 933.07 tons with an increase of 2.87 tons (0.31%); SLV silver position was 14351.820036 tons with an increase of 48.0702 tons (0.34%) [14] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - **Market Indicators**: The US Dollar Index was 98.6884 with a daily decrease of 0.7524 (- 0.76%); the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan was 7.2113 with a daily increase of 0.0488 (0.68%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42270.07 points with a daily increase of 54.34 points (0.13%); WTI crude oil spot was 62.52 dollars/barrel with a daily increase of 1.73 dollars (2.85%); LmeS copper 03 was 9497 dollars/ton with a daily decrease of 70 dollars (- 0.73%) [19] - **Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41% with a daily decrease of 0.02% (- 0.45%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2.13% with a daily increase of 0.06% (2.9%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52% with a daily increase of 0.01% (1.96%) [20]

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing multiple dynamics, including rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a declining US dollar index, and fluctuating prices for gold and silver, with London gold stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce and London silver around $33 per ounce [1] - The investment landscape for gold and silver is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain concerns due to tariff policies, leading to a dual logic of safe-haven demand and industrial attributes [1] - Year-to-date, London gold has increased over 12%, while silver has shown higher volatility, presenting differentiated investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Comparison of Gold and Silver Characteristics - London gold is viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset, with price fluctuations primarily driven by macroeconomic cycles and monetary policy, particularly the potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [3] - The expected core PCE inflation rate for 2025 is 2.7%, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - London silver, with over 50% of its demand coming from industrial applications, saw a 21.5% price increase in 2024, but is expected to face a 21% reduction in global supply gap in 2025, making it more susceptible to short-term market sentiment [3] Group 2: Role of Jinsheng Precious Metals in Investment Decisions - Jinsheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange, offers a trading platform that connects deeply with international markets, providing 24-hour two-way trading services for gold and silver [4] - The platform features a transparent cost structure with a standard spread of $30 per lot for gold and $100 per lot for silver, along with a leverage ratio of 1:100 [4] - Jinsheng's customer service team is available 24/7 to assist investors, especially during critical market events such as Federal Reserve policy changes [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - A suggested strategy for ordinary investors is to adopt a "gold base + silver enhancement" approach, allocating 70% of the portfolio to gold and 30% to silver [5] - Key signals to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in June and changes in US non-farm employment data, which could influence gold and silver prices [5] - Jinsheng's simulated trading feature serves as a testing ground for various strategies, helping investors avoid pitfalls in real trading scenarios [5] Conclusion - In the context of shifting Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical changes, the investment value of London gold and silver varies, with Jinsheng Precious Metals providing a compliant, transparent, and professional trading platform for investors [7] - Both long-term holders seeking stability and short-term traders looking to capitalize on volatility can find suitable solutions within Jinsheng's ecosystem [7]

报告推荐：黄金全产业链季度观察报告 出 品 方：北京黄金经济发展研究中心 黄金市场：避险情绪下的价值重估 高盛预计金价明年有望触及3700 美元/盎司，较当前价格上涨约11.8%，并警示极端情境下可能攀升至接近4500 美元（约上涨36%）。瑞银和摩根大通等机 构同样对金价持乐观展望，认为全球避险需求、央行"去美元化"买盘以及中国市场的新生力量将为金价提供支撑。 避险情绪推高金价 今年以来，全球经济和地缘政治不确定性上升，黄金避险属性凸显。4 月下旬，金价在避险买盘推动下突破3500 美元，年初至今涨幅近30%。虽然投机资金 曾撤离，但对经济衰退的担忧使黄金ETF 持仓持续增加，东方市场的实物需求也在逢低买入。美国与中国的新一轮贸易摩擦进一步助燃了市场避险情绪。 尽管双方在5 月12 日达成临时关税休战协议，但投资者对美国经济前景的担忧仍未消除，避险资金加速涌入黄金市场。 高盛：上调预期 高盛上调黄金价格预测，将2025 年底金价目标提高至3700 美元/盎司，预计金价运行区间在3650~3950 美元之间。支撑这一预期的核心因素是全球央行购金 需求和避险资金流入超预期。高盛将全球央行每月购金量假设从70 吨 ...

Market Overview - The market is characterized by a constant tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, leading to fluctuations in price movements [1] - The focus should be on strategies to protect capital and respond to market changes rather than predicting market direction [1] Gold Market Analysis - On May 29, spot gold experienced fluctuations, opening at $3285.91 per ounce, reaching a high of $3294.46, and a low of $3245.29, closing at $3280.01, reflecting a decline of 0.34% [1] - Gold prices have fallen for four consecutive days due to multiple factors: a U.S. court ruling boosting market risk appetite, a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index returning to the 100 mark [1] - Despite the recent decline, medium to long-term support factors are accumulating, particularly due to delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index release, which will provide critical guidance for assessing the Fed's policy direction and future gold price trends [1] Technical Analysis - The current prediction for gold indicates a potential downward adjustment from $3365, with two possible scenarios: one suggesting a five-wave upward movement and the other indicating a three-wave ABC structure [2] - The recent drop below the key support level of $3280 confirms the three-wave ABC structure, suggesting that gold may not reach new highs in the short term and is currently in the final Z-wave downward adjustment [2] Trading Strategy - A short position strategy is recommended: if gold rebounds to the $3300-$3310 range and faces resistance, a light short position can be initiated with a stop-loss above $3320 and a target set at $3270-$3280 [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].

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