回顾去年，市场曾热议"去美元化"，担忧特朗普以关税为核心的贸易政策可能促使全球投资者大幅削减 对美国资产的配置。然而，事实并未如部分担忧那般演变。据智通财经APP了解，美国财政部数据显 示，去年前11个月，海外投资者净买入美国证券规模高达1.27万亿美元，其中很大一部分资金在人工智 能热潮推动下涌入华尔街。 但自那以后，局势明显发生变化。特朗普上任以来推出的一系列争议性政策，被市场视为动摇了过去数 十年形成的跨大西洋政治与经济秩序，也重新点燃了对做空美国资产的讨论。 从存量角度看，全球投资者确实握有庞大的美国资产。最新官方统计显示，海外投资者持有的美国资产 约为68.9万亿美元，而美国持有的海外资产约为41.3万亿美元，两者差额约27.6万亿美元。这一差额即 美国的净国际投资头寸，无论以名义规模还是占GDP比重(超过90%)衡量，均创下历史新高。 在交易语境中，这意味着全球对美国处于"净多头"状态。如此高度集中的配置，尤其是在股票资产上， 正被越来越多投资者视为悬在美国市场上方的"达摩克利斯之剑"。在特朗普强硬政策引发欧洲多国不安 的背景下，市场开始重新评估，全球投资者是否愿意继续维持这一高度集中的头寸，还是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shift in U.S. economic policy towards aggressive stimulus strategies may drive gold prices to a historic high of $6,000 per ounce by 2026, as predicted by financial analyst Craig Hemke [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Shift - The U.S. economic policy is undergoing a fundamental reversal from fiscal tightening to a strategy aimed at "overheating" the economy to alleviate debt burdens [3]. - The current administration has abandoned previous plans for budget balancing and fiscal restraint, opting instead for rapid GDP growth to dilute debt pressure [3]. - A new Federal Reserve chair, expected to be appointed by Trump in May, is anticipated to align closely with the Treasury to stimulate short-term growth through interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 2: Potential Tools - The aggressive growth strategy may lead to rising inflation and long-term interest rates, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider implementing yield curve control [4]. - Yield curve control would involve setting a cap on long-term interest rates, such as 4% for 10-year Treasury bonds, to maintain low nominal rates while inflation rises [4]. - This scenario could result in negative real interest rates, historically favorable for gold prices [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold has reached record levels, driven by concerns over the safety of dollar assets, particularly following geopolitical tensions [5][6]. - The Polish central bank's recent announcement to purchase an additional 150 tons of gold highlights ongoing strong demand, which is expected to continue supporting gold prices [6]. - The combination of robust central bank buying and strong industrial demand for silver positions the precious metals market for a long-term bull market starting in 2024 [6].

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced a slight increase following Trump's withdrawal of trade threats against Europe, alleviating concerns about a trade war [2][28] - As of the report, Dow futures rose by 0.35%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures climbed by 0.83% [3][29] - The European Stoxx 600 index rose by 1.1%, with the automotive sector leading gains, particularly Volkswagen which surged by 5.2% [3][29] Group 2 - Gold prices remained stable near record highs, indicating that risk appetite in the stock market has not fully translated into a significant drop in safe-haven demand [4][30] - The market interpreted Trump's statements as a sign of easing geopolitical and trade tensions, leading to a renewed preference for stock assets [4][30] Group 3 - Semiconductor stocks strengthened, with Nvidia's CEO comments at Davos boosting enthusiasm for AI investments, leading to a 17% surge in Disco Corp. and a 2.3% increase in Samsung Electronics [6][31][32] - The Korean benchmark index, a tech stock indicator, reached a historical high [32] Group 4 - The VIX volatility index, known as the "Wall Street fear gauge," saw a significant decline, indicating a reduction in market panic [34] - Japanese government bonds rebounded for the second consecutive trading day, while Bitcoin traded around $90,000 [33] Group 5 - Focused stocks included Western Digital, which rose over 4%, Micron Technology up over 3%, and Seagate Technology increasing by 2.5% [40] - Moderna continued to rise by 5.6% following positive data on its mRNA cancer vaccine [41] - GE Aerospace saw a pre-market increase of over 5%, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be between $7.10 and $7.40 for 2026, exceeding market expectations [42]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.35%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.83% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.16%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.45%, France's CAC40 up by 1.19%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.33% [2] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1.50%, trading at $59.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen by 1.41%, priced at $64.32 per barrel [3] Economic Indicators - The market anticipates stable inflation pressures in the US for November, with a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates next week. The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, indicating inflation levels significantly above the Fed's 2% target [4] Company News - GE Aerospace reported Q4 earnings that exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS of $1.57, surpassing the forecast of $1.43, and adjusted revenue of $11.9 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $11.2 billion. The company projects adjusted EPS for 2026 to be between $7.10 and $7.40, indicating strong growth confidence [9] - Morgan Stanley and Allen & Company are set to earn $90 million from the Warner Bros. deal, with Morgan Stanley also profiting from a $17.5 billion bridge loan provided to Warner Bros. [10] - Anthropic PBC has raised at least $1 billion in its latest funding round, with its revenue run rate doubling since last summer to exceed $9 billion by the end of 2025 [11] - Intel has secured a significant contract with the US Missile Defense Agency for chip supply, with a maximum contract value of $151 billion, boosting investor confidence in the company's transformation plans [12] - Alibaba is preparing to spin off its chip company, Tsinghua Unigroup, for a potential IPO, reflecting strong investor interest in AI accelerators [12]

渣打银行全球研究主管兼首席分析师罗伯特森（EricRobertson）在1月15日的媒体圆桌会上指出，基于美国经济表现强劲及美联储今年可 能不会降息等预期，美元有望在年内升值5%至8%，这一观点与当前市场主流看法相左。 他认为，市场关于去美元化和抛售美元资产的讨论被过分夸大。 渣打银行亚洲与亚细安外汇研究联合主管迪瓦西（DivyaDevesh）进一步指出，亚洲市场目前正呈现"重新美元化"趋势，亚洲货币在今年 预计整体走弱。 迪瓦西分析，自美联储大幅加息三年半以来，美元相对于大多数亚洲货币保持较高收益，导致出口商更倾向于持有美元而非兑换为本 币，因此即便出口表现强劲，亚洲货币仍难以走强。 此外，尽管人工智能发展有助于区域经济和吸引外国直接投资，却未必对本地货币形成支撑。亚洲散户和机构投资者大幅增持美国科技 股，导致资金外流，给本地货币带来额外压力。同时，机构投资者倾向于对外汇资产进行对冲以锁定收益，若美元走势趋稳，相关对冲 操作的解除也会进一步抑制亚洲货币升值。 不过，人民币可能成为例外。罗伯特森预计，到年底美元兑人民币汇率或降至6.85。人民币仍拥有可观的贸易顺差，利差也在收窄，加 之近期中间价持续释放信号， ...

1. 1月22日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.35%，标普500指数期货涨0.56%，纳指 期货涨0.83%。 | = US 30 | 49,247.70 | 49,303.50 | 49,075.40 | +170.70 | +0.35% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6.914.40 | 6.923.40 | 6.878.70 | +38.80 | +0.56% | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 25,536.10 | 25,573.10 | 25,341.60 | +209.50 | +0.83% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.16%，英国富时100指数涨0.45%，法国CAC40指数涨1.19%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨 1.33%。 | 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌1.50%，报59.71美元/桶。布伦特原油跌1.41%，报64.32美元/桶。 | | --- | | 雪 WTI原油 | 2026年3月 | 59.71 | 60.81 | 59.49 | -0.91 | -1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing contrasting predictions for 2026, with some analysts forecasting prices as high as $5,400 per ounce, while others expect prices to decline compared to 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, gold prices exhibited extreme volatility, with a 32.4% rebound from August to October, followed by a nearly 10% decline in late October [3]. - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, leading to a situation where the value of gold reserves held by central banks surpassed that of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. interest rate policy is identified as the primary factor affecting gold prices in 2026, according to the LBMA [4]. - Market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts directly influence the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive during periods of declining rates [5]. - The demand for gold is supported by central bank purchases and the ongoing process of de-dollarization, with predictions suggesting gold prices could reach $6,600 per ounce by 2030 based on long-term GDP growth assumptions [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks are considered a significant underlying factor supporting gold prices in 2026, as investors tend to increase gold allocations during times of uncertainty [7][8]. - The potential for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy could reduce gold's appeal as a safe haven, while a slowdown or regional economic crisis would enhance its attractiveness [19]. Group 4: Diverging Market Perspectives - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, raising its price target for the end of 2026 to $5,400 per ounce, driven by private sector hedging demand [9]. - In contrast, CITIC Securities predicts weaker gold prices in 2026, suggesting a shift in focus towards industrial metals like copper due to increased capital spending driven by AI advancements [14][15]. Group 5: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy is viewed as the biggest risk for the gold market in 2026, with analysts suggesting that 2026 may be a year of price consolidation rather than continuous increases [16]. - If the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are slower than expected or if inflation data fluctuates, gold may face significant downward pressure [17]. - The crowded trading positions in the gold market, following a period of continuous price increases, raise the likelihood of technical adjustments [20].

Group 1 - The founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, indicates a persistent trend of de-dollarization globally, particularly among central banks [1] - Dalio highlights that the rise in gold prices by 67% is not merely a reflection of precious metal appreciation, but rather a significant increase in purchases by central banks and other investors aiming for currency diversification [1] - He emphasizes the lack of attention on the "capital war" and its impact on market operations, despite the focus on trade wars [1] Group 2 - Dalio comments on the potential consequences of military actions, suggesting they could lead to repercussions in the capital war [2] - The tension in transatlantic relations and threats from President Trump regarding Greenland have intensified discussions about reducing U.S. asset holdings, with Danish pension fund AkademikerPension planning to exit the U.S. Treasury market due to significant credit risks [2] - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that weaponizing U.S. government debt is a "dangerous gamble" [2]

日前，特朗普除了不留情面地"训话"欧洲外，还上演了"格陵兰TACO"：不动武，税也不加了。 这引人瞠目的180度大反转后，全球避险情绪降温，金银价格应声走低。 周四亚市早盘，现货黄金一度跌破4800，现货白银最低回落至90美元/盎司附近。 不过午后，金银价格便再度快速拉升。 现货白银日内涨超1.4%，现报94.263美元/盎司；现货黄金也跌幅收窄，目前已经翻红重上4830美元/盎 司上方。 特朗普"格陵兰TACO" 川普"大闹"达沃斯，短暂冷却了金银的火热势头。 譬如，批评加拿大总理卡尼、嘲讽法国总统马克龙；怒骂丹麦忘恩负义，扬言没美国欧洲得说德语甚至 是日语…… 特朗普还主动cue到了欧洲"爸爸梗"。 他称，此前北约一直都"爱"他，还叫他"爸爸"，现在要一块领土不过分吧？ 一番口嗨后，特朗普突然又上演"格陵兰TACO"。 他180度大反转改口宣布："不动武夺岛，不对欧洲8国加征关税"。 据称，特朗普与北约秘书长吕特会晤后称，双方已就格陵兰岛及北极安全达成初步协议框架。 其中涉及美国在格陵兰的军事基地、矿产开发优先拒绝权等，但具体细节未公开。 地缘冲突恐慌蔓延之际，全球都在紧盯特朗普达沃斯演讲。 果然，川普的 ...

十亿美元 持有美食变动规模(2025/11相较于2024/11) 150.0 =美债持有变动 100. 0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 美债坑家结构跟踪 | 高频服装变 | | --- | | 美做灵型 玩家类型 有量占比 利率敏感性 | 图说金融(20260122) 如何看待当前对欧洲养老金抛售美债的担忧? 地缘风险引发不确定性已开始影响部分主权投资者的资产配置决策,点燃投资者对"去美元化"的担忧。 作为美债重要的海外持有方(约占38.9%),欧洲投资者是其市场流动性的关键支撑。在上一轮"去美元化 "交易盛行期间,欧洲非主要的抛售方,反而比利时、法国、挪威等欧洲国家仍持续增持美债。由此来看，当 前这一叙事的风险在于:欧洲投资者若停止增持或减缓增持,即构成结构性压力,主动抛售的影响将更为剧烈 当前,外国官方部门因储备增长放缓与美元信心减弱而需求下降,私人部门也因对冲后利差为负而配置意 愿低迷。目前需求或主要来自博弈美联储降息的交易盘。若劳动力市场保持当前"低速平衡"状态,美联储短 期难转向宽松,叠加地缘不确定性,美债仍处逆风期,10年美债利率运行中枢或在4.2%附近,市场风险需警惕。 风险提示 ...