Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold stocks in the A-share market hitting the limit up, driven by the strong rise in spot gold prices, which have surpassed $5000 and continue to climb [1][3] - Major gold stocks such as Hunan Gold, Shengda Resources, and Fuda Alloy have shown remarkable performance, with nearly ten stocks reaching their daily limit [1][3] - The futures market is also strong, with the main Shanghai gold contract rising by 3.73% and reaching a historical high during the session [1][3] Group 2 - Spot gold prices have seen a nearly 2% increase, peaking at $5093.15 per ounce, with an 8.4% weekly rise, contrasting with a nearly 2% drop in the US dollar index [3] - Concerns over the US dollar's asset safety have led to accelerated divestment from US Treasury bonds by funds in Europe and India, prompting a diversification of assets [3] - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, providing strong support for gold prices, with China's gold reserves reported at 74.15 million ounces, having increased by 30,000 ounces in December [3] Group 3 - Institutions are generally optimistic about future gold price trends, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price forecast to $5400 per ounce due to rising demand from private investors and central banks [4] - Factors supporting long-term gold price increases include rising US fiscal risks, strong central bank gold purchasing intentions, ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical risks [4] - Gold stocks are expected to follow gold price trends but with higher elasticity, as evidenced by a more than 7% increase in gold stock ETFs and a cumulative rise of nearly 38% since 2026 [4] Group 4 - The strong breakthrough in gold prices is attributed to a resonance of global macroeconomic conditions and market risk aversion, with a potential for technical pullbacks in the short term [5] - The trend of central banks de-dollarizing their reserve allocations remains unchanged, with persistent depreciation pressure on sovereign debt credit currencies, highlighting gold's value as hard currency [5] - For A-share investors, focusing on mining leaders with resource reserve advantages and high-dividend, low-valuation gold jewelry retail stocks offers good defensive and investment returns [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in resource and energy stocks in the A-share market, with companies like Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reaching historical highs in stock prices and market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The spot gold price has surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, reaching $5,075.06 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and trends towards de-dollarization [1][2] - Central banks globally, including those in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, are accelerating their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [1][2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that as of November 2025, the total official gold reserves of the U.S. exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at $3.93 trillion, surpassing U.S. Treasury bonds as the largest reserve asset for the first time in 30 years [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that global central banks will net purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly in 2026, potentially leading to a record annual gold buying volume [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three long-term structural factors: ongoing large-scale gold purchases by central banks, expectations of monetary easing in major economies, and increased demand for gold from the private sector for hedging and asset allocation [2] Group 3 - Zijin Mining has forecasted a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and rising sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [3] - The oil and gas sector also showed strong performance, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and CNOOC experiencing significant stock price increases due to tight energy supply caused by a winter storm in the U.S., which pushed natural gas futures above $6 per million British thermal units [3] - The rising stock prices of resource sector leaders reflect both the transmission effect of international market price changes and investor recognition of their long-term resource endowment, operational efficiency, and sustainable development capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the weakening of the US dollar has positively impacted the entire metal market, leading to record high prices for both silver and gold in early trading sessions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bullish scenario for precious metals is supported by strong reserve demand and ongoing market participants' pursuit of de-dollarization [1] - Industrial demand is also contributing positively to silver prices [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Michael Brown from Pepperstone notes that while there has been significant price appreciation in a short period, a period of consolidation would not be detrimental [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests that the "path of least resistance" remains upward for precious metals [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, with London spot gold breaking through $5000 per ounce, reaching a high of $5093, and silver surpassing $109 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of short-term safe-haven demand, medium-term policy expectations, and long-term monetary credit reconstruction [1] - Analysts predict that gold prices may challenge the $6000 mark by 2026, with various institutions adjusting their price targets upwards due to increasing demand from private investors and central banks [4][5] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the Middle East and trade tensions, have contributed to heightened demand for gold, with European countries selling U.S. debt and buying gold [2] - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, while the likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low in the near term [2][3] - Institutions are warning about the risks of overbought conditions in precious metals, suggesting that profit-taking could lead to increased volatility [5][6] Group 3 - Regulatory measures are being implemented to curb excessive speculation in the futures market, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange taking action against clients suspected of not declaring actual control relationships [6] - The market is experiencing a cycle of rising prices, with many commodities reaching historical highs, leading to increased volatility risks [6] - Analysts emphasize the importance of compliance with trading rules and the need for risk management in the current high-price environment [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The gold market is experiencing a "no-defeat time" as the narrative of de-dollarization continues to advance, with geopolitical risks becoming a recurring theme throughout the year [2][11] - Lithium prices are on the rise, driven by increased demand and a supply shortage, indicating a strong upward trend in the lithium mining sector [3][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair [11] - The lithium sector is seeing a significant increase in prices and demand, with a current average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at 171,000 CNY/ton [12] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 5.97%, outperforming the market by 5.14%, ranking 4th among 30 sub-industries [13] - The top-performing segments include gold, lead, and zinc, with respective increases of 16.40%, 15.39%, and 14.48% [13] Metal Prices and Inventory - Lithium prices have surged, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate up by 8.41% to 167,500 CNY/ton and battery-grade up by 8.23% to 171,000 CNY/ton [23][25] - Gold prices increased by 8.4% to 4,980 USD/ounce, while silver prices rose by 14.5% to 101.33 USD/ounce [45]

1月26日，现货黄金价格达到历史性高位，首次突破5000美元/盎司。面对外部冲击与政策调整预期，接下来金价是否还会强势上行？美元走向会发生什么 变化，人民币汇率将在何处找到稳定锚点？本期"视界"，小管邀请复旦大学管理学院财务与金融学系李达三讲席教授李隽业展望2026年中国金融市场走 向。 委内瑞拉政局动荡、俄乌冲突依旧胶着、中美经贸摩擦持续博弈……回望2025年，全球政治经济舞台出现了更多不可预测的风险点。与此同时，避险资产 需求明显抬升，黄金价格持续攀升，货币与资本流向也在地缘政治与宏观政策的双重作用下频繁波动。 复旦管院金融与财务学系李达三讲席教授 研究方向：实证资产定价，衍生产品定价，金融计量，金融数据分析 例如，2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动后，美国及其盟友对俄罗斯实施了一系列制裁，包括剔除出环球银行金融电信协会（SWIFT），冻结俄罗斯央 行约3000亿美元外汇储备，明确禁止俄罗斯进行黄金与美元的互换交易，禁止任何实体接收俄罗斯以美元计价的主权债券利息付款等。这些制裁举措充分 展现了美元的"武器化"程度，所蕴含的战略影响也极为深远。它向其他国家，尤其是中国这样的全球经济大国，传递了一个明确信号 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market has different trends and outlooks for various commodities and financial products. For example, the bond futures are expected to face pressure, the stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation range, and the precious metals market is expected to have significant volatility [6][9][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.07%, 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan [5] - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure. It is recommended to remain cautious [6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by - 0.15%, - 0.66%, 3.36%, and 3.06% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation and economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds, are expected to drive the central fluctuation range of the stock index to gradually rise. It is recommended to hold previous long positions [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose 2.58% and 6.97% respectively. Eurozone and US PMI data were released [11] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise and increased speculation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13] Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils in different regions were given [15] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is in a downward trend, and the market is entering a demand off - season. The supply pressure has eased, and inventory consumption is fast. The prices are likely to continue weak oscillations, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were given. National pig iron daily output is low, and port inventory is rising [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened, but there are signs of stabilization in futures. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak [20] - **Outlook**: From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose 1.00% each. The spot prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron in different regions changed. The supply and demand of ferroalloys are in a certain situation, and the cost fluctuates slightly [22] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure persists. The cost is at a low level, and there is support for the low - level range. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23] Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs increased. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran [24] - **Outlook**: CFTC data shows that US funds are still bullish on crude oil. The new US sanctions on Iran have pushed up crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [25] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and stood above the moving average group. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the crack spread continued to rise [27] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [28] Chemical Products Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed higher quotes, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. The market has a strong desire to test higher prices, but demand follow - up is insufficient [29] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market will face a supply - demand tight situation this week, and prices may continue to rise in the short term due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 6.99%. Last week, the market rose, mainly supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates, but limited by weak downstream demand. The inventory is accumulating [31] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a strong oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and whether the device overhauls in January will be implemented [32] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rose 3.29% and 3.27% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis was stable [34] - **Outlook**: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The supply is shrinking, the cost support is still there, the demand of tire enterprises is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.82%. The spot price increased, and the basis was stable. The current is the traditional off - season for PVC demand [36] - **Outlook**: Although it is in the traditional off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong oscillation in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of demand [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.39%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased, and the basis was stable [40] - **Outlook**: The short - term urea price will maintain a strong oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products has different changes, and the inventory situation is given [40] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose 2.93%. The PXN spread and PX - MX spread are at a certain level, and the PX load has declined [42] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the PX start - up rate is increasing, and the market sentiment and cost - end crude oil may provide support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to participate in the low - level range and be vigilant about the fluctuation of external crude oil [43] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 4.21%. The PTA device load is stable, the polyester load has decreased, and the processing fee has increased [44] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The inventory is still low, the supply - end changes are small, the demand - end has a seasonal decline, but the cost - end and market sentiment boost the market. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [44] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract increased in volume and rose 5.99%, mainly driven by device production cuts and market sentiment. The overall and synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol operating loads have decreased, and some devices have plans for production cuts or shutdowns [45] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - end of ethylene glycol has shrunk due to increased domestic and foreign device overhauls, and the market sentiment has been boosted. However, the port inventory still has pressure, and the pre - arrival volume at ports has increased significantly. There is obvious seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in January and February, and it may gradually enter the de - inventory channel in March. The upward space in the short - term may be limited. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose 3.45%. The short - fiber device load has increased slightly, the downstream terminal start - up rate has decreased locally, and the factory's raw material inventory has increased [47] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the sales of polyester short - fiber have improved, the terminal factory is mainly digesting raw material inventory, and the low inventory may provide bottom support. It is mainly trading based on the cost - end logic and may oscillate with raw material prices. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory stocking [47] Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2603 main contract rose 4.4%. The bottle - chip processing fee has recovered, the factory load has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts and restarts around the Spring Festival [48] - **Outlook**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has decreased slightly, and there are expectations of supply reduction around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still on the cost - end. It is expected to oscillate with the cost - end. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels and pay attention to the implementation of overhaul devices [48] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, rising 2.04%. The production has decreased slightly, the inventory is still accumulating, the equipment operation is increasing, the downstream demand is general, and the price is relatively stable [49] - **Outlook**: The off - season characteristics are significant. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price is expected to adjust steadily. It is recommended to be cautious [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1064 yuan/ton, rising 1.33%. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory is increasing, the trader's inventory is also increasing, the enterprise's shipment has slowed down, and the downstream demand is shrinking [52] - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is calm, the industry profit is low, the downward space is limited. It may rise due to a technical rebound in the short - term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [52] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 1945 yuan/ton, rising 0.15%. In winter, the supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is weak, and the transportation in the north is affected by cold weather [53] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant. The pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate due to the price fluctuation of alumina, but considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, it is recommended to be cautious [54] Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, rising 0.78%. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, and the prices of various types of pulp have declined to varying degrees [55] - **Outlook**: The downstream market's inventory stocking is approaching the end, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the disk has a short - term technical rebound, it is necessary to treat it rationally [56] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the carbonate lithium main contract rose 7.31% to 181,520 yuan/ton. The macro - liquidity release has pushed up the commodity pricing center [57] - **Outlook**: The supply of lithium resources is elastic, the production is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, the inventory is gradually decreasing, and the price has strong support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. It is necessary to control risks [57] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,830 yuan/ton, rising 2.21%. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate is in short supply [58] - **Outlook**: The demand is suppressed by high prices, the inventory is accumulating, and the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is expected to adjust at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week [59] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,315 yuan/ton, rising 0.75%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, falling 0.11%. The alumina market has a supply surplus, and the high aluminum price suppresses downstream demand [61] - **Outlook**: Both the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain are under pressure in the short - term. It is expected to adjust at a high level [61] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,690 yuan/ton, rising 0.51%. The domestic refined zinc production has increased, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [63] - **Outlook**: The zinc price lacks the momentum to continue rising and is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [64] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,145 yuan/ton, rising 0.29%. The lead concentrate processing fee is low, the supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is increasing slightly [66] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [66] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 6.56% to 447,140 yuan/ton. The exchange has introduced cooling measures, and the geopolitical conflicts have pushed up the price center [68] - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to control risks [68] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 1.2% to 146,760 yuan/ton. The "strategic reserve" metals have generally risen, and the Indonesian nickel policy has changed [70] - **Outlook**: The nickel ore price has support, but the stainless - steel market is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [70] Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract and soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% each. The spot prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in different regions changed. The market demand expectation has improved, and the South American weather concerns provide support [71] - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean import has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in a loss, the cost support has been adjusted downward, the soybean meal demand has a moderate increase, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long - positions for soybean oil when the price rises [72] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen due to profit

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Shanghai gold futures indicates a strong market sentiment, with the main contract reaching a peak of 1147.00 yuan and closing at 1138.70 yuan, reflecting a 3.25% increase [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures suggests that precious metals may continue to show strength in the near term, influenced by the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair and potential government shutdown risks [2] - Hualian Futures maintains an optimistic outlook for gold in the first half of 2026, citing strong GDP growth and inflation data that support a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 reached 4.4%, the highest in two years, which, along with stable inflation, is favorable for gold [2] - The expectation of a dovish Federal Reserve, especially with the potential for rate cuts in 2026, is seen as beneficial for gold prices [2] Group 3: Long-term Factors - Central bank gold purchases are expected to remain consistent, alongside a global trend of de-dollarization, which will support the upward movement of precious metals [2] - The decline in the proportion of global dollar reserves and increasing U.S. fiscal deficits are long-term factors that favor gold's monetary attributes [2] - The impact of new tax policies on gold jewelry demand and the need to monitor central bank purchases and investment demand are critical for assessing gold's market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 762.85 yuan, closing at 734.15 yuan, reflecting an 8.13% rise [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures highlights the attention on the rebound of platinum and palladium prices due to geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand and countries accelerating de-dollarization by significantly increasing gold holdings [2] - The volatility in silver has led to a 40% increase within a month, with the COMEX gold-silver ratio dropping to 48, the lowest in nearly 50 years, indicating strong performance in precious metals [2] - The current geopolitical instability is expected to keep precious metal prices strong in the short term, with platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios still at low levels, suggesting potential for a rebound in platinum and palladium prices [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - Ruida Futures notes that platinum shows more resilience compared to palladium, especially after the EU postponed the internal combustion engine ban and strengthened automotive emissions standards, leading to increased platinum loading intensity [2] - The automotive catalyst's demand for platinum is expected to add approximately 450,000 ounces this year, despite a mild adjustment in global passenger car sales due to recession concerns [2] - The rise in penetration rates for hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium to long-term demand curve for platinum, supported by the IEA's latest hydrogen outlook predicting a cumulative installation of PEM electrolyzers to exceed 17 GW by 2030 [2] Group 3: Supply and Price Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with new automotive emission policies, is expected to make platinum more resilient compared to palladium [2] - The differentiated supply-demand dynamics may continue to drive a "strong platinum, weak palladium" market trend [2] - Price levels to watch include resistance at $2,900/oz for platinum and support at $2,700/oz, while palladium has resistance at $2,100/oz and support at $1,900/oz [2]

转自：新华财经 国投期货：警惕资金阶段性获利了结带来的波动 国贸期货：短期警惕贵金属获利了结风险 中长期贵金属价格中枢将继续上移 华泰期货研报观点认为，上周贵金属黄金白银价格再创历史新高，地缘冲突的显著升温成为周内贵金属 价格飙涨的主线。地缘冲突的烈度加剧或将强化贵金属作为首选避险非美资产的吸引力。目前白银价格 表现强劲，现货白银站上100美元／盎司整数关口。不过由于白银本身波动相对较大，因此操作上虽然 仍可继续逢低买入套保，但对于仓位的控制以及止损的严格执行需要更多关注，整体看不宜继续追高。 新加坡星展银行财富管理部首席市场策略师科林·切申斯基表示，预计本周金价的走势或较为中性，但 推动金价近年来上涨数千美元的中长期因素将继续发挥作用。他具体指出，仍然存在的和潜在存在的地 缘局势紧张推动金价持续上涨，但支撑金价上涨的最大动力可能仍然是美元的持续走弱。切申斯基补充 说，无论是出于地缘政治杠杆还是债务可持续性的考虑，美国国债的增量出售很可能正在推动美元走 弱，而其中部分资金则流入了黄金市场。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管奥勒·汉森（Ole Hansen）表示，尽管贵金属市场出现"错失恐惧症"引发的购 买，但将本轮涨 ...