点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 中东地缘政治冲突升级，本周油价大涨 本周中东地缘风险加剧，以色列于 6 月 13 日发动对伊朗的打击，袭击了伊朗境内数十个与核计划和其他军事 设施相关的目标，造成了伊朗 6 名高级别核科学家、 3 名高级军事指挥官死亡；伊朗对以色列实施报复，发射 弹道导弹打击以色列军事中心、空军基地等目标。截至 6 月 14 日，双方军事行动仍在持续，中东地区地缘政 治风险全面升级，油价大涨。截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，布伦特、 WTI 原油分别报收 75.18 、 73.18 美元 / 桶， 较上周末分别上涨 12.8% 、 13.0% 。 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of the recent Middle East tensions on asset prices, indicating that the overall effect on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks may be limited due to historical trends and low trade exposure to the region [3] - It suggests a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on existing main lines, while in the medium to long term, the duration of the conflict will dictate investment strategies, with a preference for growth if the conflict is short-lived, and resource, transportation, and dividend sectors if prolonged [3] Group 2 - The financial data for May shows a continued year-on-year decline in credit, with corporate medium and long-term loans acting as a stabilizing factor, while short-term loans exhibit a surge [4] - Social financing growth remains stable at 8.7%, supported by increased government bond issuance, while M1 growth rebounds from a low base and M2 growth remains stable [4] Group 3 - The article highlights the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the recent Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, which have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 12.8% and 13.0% respectively [5] - The report emphasizes the strategic value of major oil companies and oil service firms in light of these geopolitical tensions [5] Group 4 - The coal mining industry report notes that the rise in oil prices is expected to boost bullish sentiment in the overseas coal market, with Brent crude futures increasing by 7.02% on June 13 and a total weekly increase of 11.67% [6] - It points out the historical correlation between coal, oil, and natural gas prices, suggesting that the rise in oil prices may influence coal prices moving forward [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, alongside other factors such as U.S. monetary policy and persistent global inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rapid increase in risk aversion among investors [3]. - Other significant factors influencing gold prices include the U.S. fiscal situation, with concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that the duration and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts significantly impact gold price movements, with central bank gold purchases and inflation also playing crucial roles [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing gold prices during clear risk events and should consider buying on dips instead [6][7]. - The difficulty of short-term timing in gold investments is highlighted, with recommendations for long-term strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [7][9]. - Despite potential risks, including a possible economic recovery that could strengthen the dollar, the overall sentiment remains that gold has substantial long-term investment potential due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term investment opportunity in gold is supported by its role as a hedge against extreme risks, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability [9]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, providing further support for gold prices [9]. - The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the medium to long term [9].

广发宏观周度述评（第18期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-17期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 严格账期是"反内卷"的第一步。 从实际增长来说，"924"以来的宏观经济政策已有明显成效，GDP同比已从2024年三季度低点的4.6%重新回升至5%以 上。这意味着后续更多政策可能会更集中于解决名义增长问题。所以今年二季度以来，我们看到政策关于"反内卷"的信号显著升温。 主要行业中，哪些"反内卷"的问题最为紧迫？我们理解包括钢铁（前5个月PPI同比-10.0%）、煤炭（前5个月PPI同比-14.1%）、光伏（电气机械行业前5个月 PPI同比-1.5%）、汽车（前5个月PPI同比-3.2%）等。 上周起，多家汽车企业相继宣布将供应商账期控制在60天以内[1]。 我们理解这一举动一则有助于产业链中小企业现金流的改善，有助于稳市场主体、稳就业；二则它实际上是"反内卷"的重要组成部分。 账期长意味着生产企业对于供应链企业资金存在额外的占用时间，客观上相当于微观层面叠加一层加杠杆。汽车行业严格账期相当于强制整车企业微观去杠杆，从 而可以显著降低企业价格"内卷"的能力。 严格账期只是"反内卷"的开始，基于行业数据特征，我们估计后续政策 ...

今天是热闹非凡的一天，一方面美国正举行陆军建军 250周年阅兵同时懂王79岁生日，另一方 面全美多地爆发反对特朗普政府移民、卫生、教育等方面政策的约2000场示威游行活动，活动 名为"不要国王"。川普的生日盛典和民众的No king怒吼交织一起，画面实在不要太美丽。 而更受关注的是中东伊以军事冲突继续升级，当地时间 6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动代号 为"狮子的力量"的大规模空袭。据伊朗方面消息，以色列此次袭击造成伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司 令萨拉米、武装部队总参谋长巴盖里死亡，此外还有10余名伊朗核科学家遇难。 当日晚间，伊朗发动 "真实诺言-3"行动对以色列进行报复，向以色列境内发射了200余枚导 弹，以色列方面表示，大部分导弹被拦截，但仍有部分导弹造成了人员伤亡和基础设施损毁。 随着双方冲突的爆发，地缘政治风险急剧升温，国际油价大幅跳涨，布伦特原油期货价格盘中一 度涨超 10%，突破92美元/桶，为去年10月以来新高；避险资产黄金价格也大幅拉升，纽约商 品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价13日比前一交易日上涨46.6美元，收于每盎司 3429.9美元，涨幅为1.38%。 那么伊以冲突可能持续多久 ...

今天是热闹非凡的一天，一方面美国正举行陆军建军 250周年阅兵同时懂王79岁生日，另一方 面全美多地爆发反对特朗普政府移民、卫生、教育等方面政策的约2000场示威游行活动，活动 名为"不要国王"。川普的生日盛典和民众的No king怒吼交织一起，画面实在不要太美丽。 而更受关注的是中东伊以军事冲突继续升级，当地时间 6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动代号 为"狮子的力量"的大规模空袭。据伊朗方面消息，以色列此次袭击造成伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司 令萨拉米、武装部队总参谋长巴盖里死亡，此外还有10余名伊朗核科学家遇难。 当日晚间，伊朗发动 "真实诺言-3"行动对以色列进行报复，向以色列境内发射了200余枚导 弹，以色列方面表示，大部分导弹被拦截，但仍有部分导弹造成了人员伤亡和基础设施损毁。 随着双方冲突的爆发，地缘政治风险急剧升温，国际油价大幅跳涨，布伦特原油期货价格盘中一 度涨超 10%，突破92美元/桶，为去年10月以来新高；避险资产黄金价格也大幅拉升，纽约商 品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价13日比前一交易日上涨46.6美元，收于每盎司 3429.9美元，涨幅为1.38%。 所以若拼硬实力，以色列更 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, gold and oil prices rose, and the VIX index rebounded. The short - term market focus has shifted to geopolitical risks, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. Inflation in the US is expected to face upward pressure in the second half of the year, and the Fed is expected to continue to pause rate cuts in the June meeting [1][2][9] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined. Stock markets mostly fell, bond yields mostly declined, and the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.4%. The US dollar index fell 1.01% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down. Gold prices rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, the VIX index rebounded to 20.8, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market: Most Global Stock Markets Fell, and US and Chinese A - Shares Closed Down - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index fell 0.39%, most euro - zone stock markets closed down, emerging - market stock markets showed mixed performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.25%. The trade issue is in a缓和 state in the short term. The Israel - Iran conflict has shifted the market focus to geopolitical risks, increasing inflation pressure in the US and posing a stagflation risk to the economy, which is unfavorable for the stock market. The US employment market continues to weaken, and the stock market lacks upward momentum and has a correction risk. The domestic stock market fluctuated weakly, and the fundamentals do not support the stock market's continued rise [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market: Most Global Bond Market Yields Declined, and the US Treasury Yield Dropped to 4.4% - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.4%, and most euro - zone countries' bond yields also declining, while emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US inflation pressure has not yet been reflected, and the Middle East conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US Treasury yield to decline. However, future inflation pressure will still put pressure on the bond market. The domestic bond market fluctuated without a catalyst [14][16][17] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market: The US Dollar Index Fell 1.01%, and Non - US Currencies Mostly Appreciated - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 98.2, non - US currencies mostly appreciated, the offshore RMB slightly declined, the euro rose 1.32%, the pound rose 0.31%, the yen rose 0.54%, the Swiss franc rose 1.33%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, and Brazilian real closed up, while the South African rand, South Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit closed down [22][24][25] 2.4 Commodity Market: Gold Rose 3.7%, and Brent Crude Oil Rose 10.3% - Spot gold rose 3.7% to $3432 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 10.3% to $75.2 per barrel. The Israel - Iran conflict has increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East, boosting risk - aversion sentiment. The Fed is expected to remain on hold next week, and there is no new positive fundamental news. The rise in oil prices will further increase the stagflation risk in the US. Industrial products showed mixed performance, and the commodity spot index closed down [26][28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking: Israel Attacked Iran, and Geopolitical Risks Intensified - The Israel - Iran conflict has escalated, indicating that geopolitical risks have entered a new stage. The focus is now on the US's potential policy orientation. The rapid rise in energy prices will put pressure on global market risk appetite, and in the medium term, the rising stagflation pressure is unfavorable for the US dollar. Asset prices are expected to fluctuate sharply, and safe - haven assets will strengthen [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - There will be interest - rate meetings of the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England, and data on US retail sales in May will be released [35]

2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 坚守长期主义之十：地缘政治风险再起，"三桶油"及油服战略价值凸显 市场担忧伊核协议谈判中断、原油运输风险，油价有望持续上行。本轮伊以 冲突对原油市场的影响包括：（1）伊核谈判前景不明，对伊朗石油生产销售 的制裁可能加剧。本次以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，伊朗一度宣布退出伊核谈判， 伊以冲突加剧了伊核谈判前景的不确定性。2025 年 1-4 月，伊朗原油产量约 为 330 万桶/日，伊核谈判失败可能使美国对伊朗原油生产制裁加剧，在上一 轮制裁周期内，2019 年全年伊朗的原油产量为 236 万桶/日。（2）地缘冲突 加剧导致原油运输风险加剧。2023H1，霍尔木兹海峡原油流量约为 2050 万 桶/日，占全球海运原油总量的 27%，地缘政治冲突使得全球原油运输风险上 升。当前原油供需面临一定压力，但本轮地缘政治冲突有望使原油供需担忧得 到缓解，地缘风险溢价的整体上升有望在一段时间内持续推高油价。 "三桶油"及油服以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性，战略价值凸显。2025 年以来地缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶 油"将继续维持高资本开支，大力推进"增 ...

（原标题：中东股市，暴跌！） 中东股市大跌。 伊朗迈赫尔通讯社15日凌晨援引伊朗石油部发表的声明报道，位于德黑兰以北的沙赫兰储油库和位于该 市以南的燃料储存罐14日晚遭以色列袭击。由于两处储油设施内油量不多，火势已得到控制。 14日早些时候，伊朗南部布什尔省两家炼油厂遭到以色列空袭，部分设施爆炸起火。 自以色列袭击伊朗开始以来的首个交易日，特拉维夫股市低开1.7%。沙特基准指数早盘下跌3.6%。 当地时间14日深夜至15日凌晨，以色列多地遭多轮伊朗导弹袭击。伊朗媒体15日凌晨报道说，首都德黑 兰附近两处储油设施14日遭以色列袭击。 伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队14日晚发表声明说，为回应以色列再次袭击伊朗，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队空天部队当 天动用大量导弹和无人机对以色列发动新一轮打击。伊朗国家电视台报道称，袭击目标为以色列特拉维 夫、海法等地。 15日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发布声明表示，伊朗用导弹袭击了以色列的战斗机燃料生产设施和能源供应 中心。同时警告称，若以色列的侵略行为仍不收敛，伊斯兰革命卫队后续采取的行动将更为激烈，波及 范围也会愈发广泛。 以色列军方14日晚发表声明称，以色列境内已启动防御系统，以境内多地已拉响防空警 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.4% and the Nasdaq by 0.6% [3] - Among 24 sectors, 7 sectors saw gains while 17 sectors experienced declines, with the automotive and automotive parts sector leading gains at +9.4% [3] - The report indicates a net inflow of $4.93 billion into S&P 500 constituents, reversing the previous week's outflow of $8.74 billion [4][19] - Earnings expectations for S&P 500 constituents were adjusted upward by 0.3%, with 22 sectors seeing an increase in earnings forecasts [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw declines of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, with the automotive sector showing the highest increase at +9.4% [3] - The report highlights that large-cap growth and value stocks performed similarly, both down by 0.5% [3] Fund Flows - The report notes a significant net inflow of $4.93 billion into S&P 500 stocks, with the automotive sector attracting $4.64 billion [4][19] - The software and services sector also saw a notable inflow of $2.65 billion [19] Earnings Forecasts - The report indicates a 0.3% upward adjustment in the dynamic F12M EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents, with the semiconductor sector leading the upward revisions at +0.5% [5] - Only two sectors saw downward revisions, with the automotive sector experiencing a decrease of -0.2% in earnings expectations [5]