周四（10月9日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4020美元/盎司附近，现货黄金周伞首次突破每盎司4000美 元大关，延续破纪录涨势至4059.07美元/盎司。地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧，以及市场对美国降息的 预期，促使投资者涌入避险资产；美原油交投于62美元/桶附近，油价周三创一周新高，交易商预计乌 克兰和平协议缺乏进展将使对俄罗斯的制裁继续有效。 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息。美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认 为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经 济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美 联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不 过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政 策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性，他们认为有必要采 取谨慎的态度"。根据9月份的预测，10名美联储官员暗示，他们预计今年还会再降息两次，9人认为应 该会降息一次或更少。 黄金需 ...

技术分析网站Economies.com最新观点认为，在主要看涨趋势线支持下，现货银价在4小时图上震荡走高。在EMA50均线的支撑下，尽管技术指标出现了超 买，但预计银价仍能够维持上行态势。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability for September is nearing certainty, with market expectations rising to approximately 95% after recent employment data [5][6] - Global stock markets experienced an uptick, with U.S. stock futures rising over 0.2%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increasing by 0.7%, led by South Korea [1][2][7] - Major European indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, and the German DAX also rising by 0.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising by over 1 basis point, and the 2-year yield increasing by more than 2 basis points [2] - Gold prices remained stable, hovering around two-week highs, while silver prices dipped slightly [3] - Oil prices stabilized after three consecutive days of decline, supported by Trump's threat of imposing 100% secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers [4] Group 3 - Despite the recent highs in U.S. stock markets, major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, warned of potential short-term corrections in the S&P 500 index due to high valuations and weakening economic data [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite positive signals from recent trade negotiations, gold prices have risen, reflecting market sensitivity to inflation and policy changes [1][3] - The immediate driver for the increase in gold prices is attributed to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S., which showed a lower-than-expected month-on-month increase of 0.1% in May, leading to heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - The current macroeconomic environment highlights the critical impact of interest rate policies on the gold market, with low inflation data reducing U.S. Treasury yield expectations and pressuring the dollar index, thereby providing upward momentum for non-yielding assets like gold [3] Group 2 - The overall performance of precious metals shows platinum rising by 2.9% to a new high since 2021, and palladium increasing by 1.3%, indicating that the entire precious metals sector is benefiting from the combination of "cooling inflation and rate cut expectations" [3] - In contrast, spot silver experienced a slight decline of 1.2%, likely due to its stronger industrial characteristics and sensitivity to global trade prospects, reflecting market divergence in economic recovery assessments [3] - Gold prices are currently operating within a technical and emotional resonance zone, with bullish sentiment prevailing but facing resistance from previous high levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices reflects a shift in market sentiment and investor risk appetite, driven by rising optimism in global trade and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1][5]. Market Performance - Spot gold prices fell over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3181.62 per ounce, the lowest level since April 11, with intraday lows hitting $3174.62 [3]. - Other precious metals also experienced declines: silver dropped 1.9% to $32.25 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $982.05 per ounce, and palladium decreased 0.3% to $954.36 per ounce, indicating overall pressure in the precious metals market [3]. Trade Sentiment - The increase in trade optimism has significantly boosted market risk appetite, leading investors to shift funds from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities [3][4]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Market participants are awaiting the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments, with expectations that a higher-than-expected PPI could reinforce the likelihood of interest rate hikes, further pressuring gold prices [4]. Technical Analysis - The recent drop in gold prices may be seen as a correction following a period of significant increases driven by global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The relative strength of the U.S. dollar has negatively impacted gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars, making it less attractive to investors holding other currencies [4]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that gold's long-term value as a safe-haven asset remains intact due to ongoing global economic recovery uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The continued implementation of loose monetary policies by global central banks may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [4].

周三（北京时间4月23日），现货黄金下跌超2%，交投于3316.45附近；金价在周二盘中短暂触及3500美元的历史高点后回 落，因美国财长贝森特暗示贸易紧张局势将缓和，这激发了股市乐观情绪并提振美元，同时，美原油(64.67, 1.00, 1.57%)上 涨超2%，交投于64.35美元/桶，受助于美国对伊朗实施新制裁以及股市上涨，有望剑指65美元/桶关口。 金市 金价周二下跌逾1%，盘中早些时候曾短暂触及 3500 美元的历史高点，因美国财长贝森特暗示贸易紧张局势将缓和，这激 发了股市乐观情绪并提振美元。 现货金下跌1.5%，至每盎司 3372.68 美元，盘中一度上涨 2.2%，至 3500.05 美元。与此同时，美国期金结算价下跌0.2%， 报3419.40 美元。 RJO Futures 高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示："（美国财长） 今天下午的言论暗示贸易战可能缓和，但这正是 （黄金） 开始遭抛售的时候。" 贝森特周二表示，他认为贸易紧张局势将会缓和，但他表示，未来的谈判将是一场尚未开始的"艰难"谈判。 在贝森特称关税僵局不可持续后，受此提振美国股市上涨逾 2%，美元反弹。美元指数 上涨 ...