格隆汇2月24日｜美国总统特朗普的关税政策前景不确定性，令金融市场避险情绪升温，美股周一大幅 滑落，美元汇价受压，国际金价显著攀升，现货金价在纽约交易时段触及日内高位，一度高见每盎斯 5218.71美元，攀升2.24%。现货银价最多曾涨4%，每盎斯报88.0315美元。美元指数日内一度下挫 0.45%，低见97.36，纽约时段一度轻微倒升至97.85，最新仍跌0.2%，报97.6。 在美国最高法院推翻所谓"对等关税"后，特朗普在刚过去的周末宣布，将全球关税税率从上周五公布的 10%，立即上调至15%，他周一发出警告称，玩花招的国家将面临更高的关税，尤其是那些多年来甚至 几十年来"敲诈"美国的国家，都将面临比他们最近同意的更高关税，而且情况会更糟，他这番言论令外 界忧虑，关税前景不明朗恐将令全球贸易重新陷入混乱。 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices fell significantly due to rising inventories and a stronger dollar, raising concerns about demand in the overall commodity market [1] - The most active copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 100,980 yuan per ton, down 3.76%, while the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped by $51 or 0.39%, settling at $12,989 per ton [1] - LME copper inventories increased by 12,750 tons, reaching a total of 155,725 tons, the highest level since March 2025, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories rose to 133,004 tons, the highest since April 2025 [1] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with Shanghai aluminum down 525 yuan or 2.2% to 23,385 yuan per ton, and Shanghai zinc falling 440 yuan or 1.77% to 24,395 yuan per ton [2] - The three-month aluminum price on the LME decreased by 1.48%, while three-month zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices also saw declines of 0.91%, 0.33%, 1.12%, and 4.71% respectively [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced continued fluctuations, with Wind All A index down by 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan, while the food and beverage sector led the gains [9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 0.8%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.97%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index increased by 1.65% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant high-tech industry projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The recent adjustment in the margin requirement for financing securities from 80% to 100% has increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a high-level fluctuation mode in the market [9] - The current bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology sectors and geopolitical uncertainties, with a low risk of significant index declines in the medium to long term [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw slight increases, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.07% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][11] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a peak of 5,594 USD/ounce before a rapid decline, indicating high market bullish sentiment but also the risk of profit-taking [11] - The gold-silver ratio is around 46.2, with significant volatility expected in silver prices, while platinum and palladium are experiencing high-level fluctuations [11]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约涨0.07%，10年期主力合约涨0.05%，5年期主力合约涨0.06%，2年期主 力合约涨0.01%。中国央行1月28日开展3775亿元7天期逆回购，中标利率1.4%，上次中标利率1.4%。据 qeubee统计，公开市场有3635亿元7天逆回购到期，实现净投放140亿元。资金面来看，DR001下行0BP 至1.37%，DR007下行3.5BP至1.55%。短期来看，继央行结构性降息之后财政政策接续发力，稳增长政 策持续出台背景下债市持续走强动力不足，利率区间震荡的大格局依然延续。 贵金属： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜伦敦现货黄金再次大涨，价格突破5400美元/盎司，今日凌晨高开又突破5500美元/盎司，再创历史 新高；现货银铂钯盘中震荡偏强；金银比升至46.7附近，现货铂钯价差降至660美元/盎司附近。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged, breaking the historical $4600 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy fluctuations [1][3] - The price of gold has increased over 64% in the past year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, attributed to a low interest rate environment and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has intensified concerns about the Fed's independence, contributing to the decline of the US dollar index by 0.23% to 98.90 [3][4] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the US response to protests in Iran and actions against Venezuela, have created a highly unstable global environment, further driving investment into gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated policy path, with expectations of two rate cuts later in the year, is expected to support gold demand [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices reached a new high of $4630, indicating strong bullish momentum, although short-term market volatility may increase [6] - Traders are advised to monitor support levels around $4520 and $4500, with resistance near $4600 and $4630 [7] - Suggested trading strategies include light long positions near $4520 with a stop loss at $4510 and targets around $4550/$4590, as well as short positions near $4595 with a stop loss at $4603 and targets around $4560/$4530 [7]

Market Overview - Asian assets experienced a significant surge at the beginning of 2026, with the offshore and onshore RMB both breaking the 6.97 mark against the USD, reaching the highest level since May 2023 [4] - The Hang Seng Index opened high on the first trading day of the year, rising nearly 1.8%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 3.4% [1] Company Performance - Baidu Group saw a notable increase of over 8.5%, surpassing last year's high, following the announcement of plans to spin off Kunlun Chip for a Hong Kong listing [1] - Other notable performers included Li Auto, which rose nearly 7%, and NIO and Leap Motor, both increasing by over 1% [1] - NetEase and Tencent also experienced gains, with NetEase up over 5% and Tencent up over 3% [1] Stock Highlights - The following companies showed significant stock performance: - Baidu Group-SW: Current price 142.700, up 8.52% [2] - Li Auto-W: Current price 69.350, up 6.94% [2] - NetEase-S: Current price 226.000, up 5.31% [2] - BYD Electronics: Current price 35.100, up 4.34% [2] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation: Current price 74.500, up 4.27% [2] New Listings - The newly listed company, Biren Technology, saw its stock surge by 110% after revealing significant revenue growth from 62 million yuan in 2023 to 337 million yuan in 2024, with a backlog of 822 million yuan in orders [2] Global Market Trends - The KOSPI index in South Korea opened higher, with Samsung Electronics reaching a historical high, increasing by 3.2% [3] - The biopharmaceutical company Celltrion's stock rose by 10% following a $473 million manufacturing agreement with Eli Lilly [3] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a collective rise, with spot gold increasing by 0.7% and achieving a 64% increase for the entire year of 2025, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [7] - Spot silver rose by 1.8%, reaching a historical high of $83.62, with a 147% increase in 2025, the largest recorded annual gain [7] - Platinum and palladium both rose by 1.6%, with platinum reaching a historical high and annual gains of 127%, while palladium saw a 76% increase, the best in 15 years [7] Investment Sentiment - There is a growing interest from overseas "long money" in Chinese assets, with a notable shift towards technology and biotechnology sectors [7] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, UBS, and JPMorgan predict a sustained rebound for Chinese assets in 2026, driven by profit growth, accelerated innovation, and attractive valuations [7]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher on December 17, 2025, with platinum and palladium futures hitting the limit up, lithium carbonate rising over 7%, and silver increasing by more than 5% [2][7] - Other notable increases included polysilicon up over 4%, asphalt up over 3%, and BR rubber up over 2%, while styrene and crude oil fell by more than 1% [2][7] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures' report on December 17, overnight London spot gold experienced a rise and subsequent fall, while silver, platinum, and palladium maintained a strong trend [4] - The gold-silver ratio dropped to around 67.3, and the platinum-palladium price spread widened to approximately $240 per ounce [4] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a cooling job market [4] - The preliminary Markit composite PMI for December in the U.S. was 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, with both manufacturing and services sectors underperforming [4]

Core Insights - The global asset bull market narrative since 2025 has reached a critical juncture in October [1] - Despite significant year-to-date gains in silver (64.73%) and gold (52.53%), October revealed market fragility with declines in major indices [2] - The divergence in performance between US and Asian markets highlights a stark contrast, with US indices reaching new highs while Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, faced significant pullbacks [3][4] Market Performance - US stock markets showed strong performance in October, with the Nasdaq index rising 4.70% to close at 23,724.96 points, and the S&P 500 index increasing by 2.27% to 6,840.20 points [3][6] - In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.53% to 25,906.65 points, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped by 4.19% [3][6] - The A-share market also exhibited mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10% [3][6] Precious Metals - The precious metals market experienced volatility, with silver peaking at $54.142 per ounce before retreating to $48.85, while gold reached $4,355.685 before falling to $4,018.52 [7][8] - Year-to-date performance for gold and silver remains strong, with gold up 52.53% and silver up 68.44% [8] Energy and Currency - The US dollar index strengthened in October, rising from 97.82 to 99.73, which exerted pressure on dollar-denominated assets [9] - Oil prices faced downward pressure, with WTI crude oil falling 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.91% to $64.77 per barrel [9] Market Dynamics - The October pullback in Chinese stocks is attributed to multiple pressures, including increased IPO activity and ongoing US-China trade tensions, leading to reduced risk appetite [10] - The divergence in performance is also linked to the relative strength of the US economy and the liquidity environment, which continues to support US equities [11] Future Outlook - The medium-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - The performance of US stocks is heavily reliant on large technology companies, which have shown strong earnings growth and market dominance [12] - Concerns about potential valuation bubbles in the tech sector are emerging, particularly regarding AI investments, which could impact future market stability [12][13]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a record high of $4059.07 per ounce, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [1][3] - The price of gold has increased by 52% year-to-date, outperforming global stock markets, while silver has risen by 71% due to similar bullish factors and tight supply in the spot market [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among officials for further interest rate cuts this year, with most suggesting that easing monetary policy may be appropriate in the remaining months [4] Group 2 - The demand for gold reflects that the "global economic resilience has yet to be fully tested," with countries' monetary gold holdings exceeding one-fifth of global official foreign exchange reserves [5] - Concerns have been raised about a "loose financial environment" potentially masking underlying weaknesses, with asset valuations nearing levels seen during the internet bubble 25 years ago [5] - The US is advised to address the federal budget deficit through sustained actions beyond discretionary spending and to incentivize household savings, particularly in retirement savings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The latest analysis from Economies.com indicates that spot silver prices are experiencing an upward trend supported by a major bullish trend line, despite technical indicators showing overbought conditions [1] Group 1 - Spot silver prices are oscillating higher on the 4-hour chart [1] - The support from the EMA50 moving average is contributing to the upward movement of silver prices [1] - It is expected that silver prices will maintain an upward trend despite the overbought technical indicators [1]